02 September 2015

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.09.2015: DEM Nomination

Democratic Nomination - National



PPP (D), released 01.08.2015:
545 DRV, MoE = +/-4.2

Clinton 55
Sanders 20
O'Malley 4
Webb 2
Chaffee 1
Lessig 1

Margin: Clinton +35


Gravis (R), released 02.09.2015:
957 RV, MoE = +/-3.4,
of them, 470 DRV





Margin: Clinton +28.2



The Economist / YouGOV poll, released 03.09.2015:
2,000 adults, MoE = +/-2.8

Clinton 44
Sanders 25
Biden 21
O'Malley 4
Webb 1
Chaffee 0

Margin: Clinton +19



IPSOS/Reuters, released 05.09.2015:
517 DRV, MoE = +/-4.1



Margin: Clinton +21.3

Monmouth University Poll, released 08.09.2015:
339 DRV, MoE = +/-5.3


Clinton 48
Sanders 23
Biden 16
O'Malley 4
Chaffee 1
Webb 0

Margin: Clinton +25


Emerson College Poll, released 09.09.2015:
955 LV, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 409 RLV


Clinton 48
Sanders 21
Biden 21
undecided / other 9
O'Malley 1
Webb 1

Margin: Clinton +27



CNN/ORC, released 10.09.2015:
930 RV, MoE = +/-3.0


Clinton 37
Sanders 27
Biden 20
O'Malley 3
Webb 2
Chafee 0

Margin: Clinton +10


Morning Consult, released 10.09.2015:
2,008 RV, MoE = +/-2.0


Clinton 51
Sanders 27
Undecided 13
other7
O'Malley 1
Chafee 1
Webb 1

Margin: Clinton +24

Ipsos/Reuters, released 11.09.2015:
Overall, 1,457 Adults, MoE = +/-2.9

Clinton 42
Sanders 28
Biden 14
wouldn't vote 10
O'Malley 3
Chafee 2
Webb 0

Margin: Clinton +14

ABC/WAPO, released 13.09.2015:
overall, 821 RV, MoE = +/-8.5
of them, 440 DRV, MoE = +/-5.0

with Biden:

Clinton 42
Sanders 24
Biden 21
Other/ none / no opinion 9
O'Malley 1
Chafee 1
Webb 1

Margin: Clinton +18

without Biden:


Clinton 56
Sanders 28
Other/ none / no opinion 9
O'Malley 3
Chafee 2
Webb 1

Margin: Clinton +28


CBS/NYT, released 15.09.2015:
1,021 RV, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 376 RRV, MoE = +/-6.0




Margin: Clinton +20


IPSOS/Reuters, released 15.09.2015:
588 DRV, MoE = unknown, likely +/-5.1


Margin: Clinton +19.5


Democratic Nomination - State Polling


Iowa:

1,004 DLV, MoE = +/-3.1

Clinton 42
Biden 22
Sanders 20
O'Malley 1
Webb 1
Chaffee 0
Someone else 4

Margin: Clinton +22



Marist, released 06.09.2015:
Overall, 1,129 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
Among them, 345 DRV, MoE = +/-5.3






Margin: Clinton + 11 in race with Biden (+24)
Margin: Clinton +11 in race without Biden (+29)

Quinnipiac, released 10.09.2015:
832 DLV, MoE = +/-3.4
Values in parentheses indicate the results of the previous Qpiac poll for Iowa.

Sanders 41 (33)
Clinton 40 (52)
Biden 12 (7)
O'Malley 3
Webb 1
Chaffee 0
Someone else/DN 3

Margin: Sanders +1


CBS NEWS (Battleground Tracker Poll), released 13.09.2015:
1,670 RV, MoE = +/-4.4

Sanders 43
Clinton 33
Biden 10
O'Malley 1
Webb 0
Chaffee 0


Margin: Sanders +10


New Hampshire:


Marist, released 06.09.2015:
Overall, 1,129 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
Among them, 345 DRV, MoE = +/-5.3




Margin: Sanders + 9 in race with Biden (Clinton +10)
Margin: Sanders +11 in race without Biden  (Clinton +13)



Sanders 52
Clinton 30
Biden 9
O'Malley 1
Webb 0
Chaffee 0


Margin: Sanders +22


Monmouth University, released 15.09.2015:
400 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Sanders 43
Clinton 36
Biden 13
O'Malley 1
Lessig 1
Webb 1
Chaffee 1
other 1


Margin: Sanders +7

Two-way matchup, without Biden and with his supporters re-allocated:


Sanders 48
Clinton 41
O'Malley 1
Lessig 1
Webb 1
Chaffee 1
other 1


Margin: Sanders +7







Florida:

Opinion Savvy / FOX35, released 02.09.2015:
419 DLV,  MoE = +/-4.7

Clinton 52
Sanders 20
Biden 15
Chafee 4
O'Malley 1
Webb 1

Margin: Clinton +32


Gravis Marketing (R) / OAN, released 15.09.2015:
1,584 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 693 DRV, MoE = +/-4.0




Margin: Clinton +20.2

PPP (D), released 15.09.2015:
814 RV, MoE = +/-3.4
of them, 368 DRV, MoE = +/-5.1

Clinton 55
Sanders 18
Biden 17
O'Malley 2
Webb 1
Chafee 1

Margin: Clinton +37

Two-way race, without Biden, and with Biden supporters reallocated:


Clinton 64
Sanders 21

Margin: Clinton +43


Georgia:

Opinion Savvy / FOX35, released 03.09.2015:
413 DLV, MoE = +/-4.8

Clinton 51.2
Sanders 23.8
Biden 14.5
Chafee 4.8
undecided 4.7
O'Malley 0.0
Webb 0.0

Margin: Clinton +27.4


South Carolina:

PPP (D), released 09.09.2015:
302 DRV, MoE = +/-5.6

Clinton 54
Biden 24
Sanders 9
Webb 2
O'Malley 2
Chaffee 1

Margin: Clinton +30



Clinton 46
Sanders 23
Biden 23
Webb 1
O'Malley 0
Chaffee 0


Margin: Clinton +23


California:

USC Dornsife, conducted by Greenburg-Quinlan-Rosner, released 13.09.2015:
Poll overall: 1,500 RV, MoE = +/-2.8
also: CROSSTABS


without Biden:

Clinton 42
Sanders 26
Another candidate 10


Margin: Clinton +16

with Biden:

Clinton 39
Sanders 23
Biden 11
Another candidate 10


Margin: Clinton +16




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