22 August 2015

Polling round-up, August 16-21, 2015

There were seven major polls released between Sunday, August 16th and yesterday, August 20th, 2015.

I am going to do this by category.

First: nomination polling R and D.

Then:  the presidential matchups.

Then:  fav/for some of the candidates, Pres. Obama's approval ratings and the Gallup fav numbers for the GOPers following their first debate.

This week in polling was not a good week for Hillary Clinton and it was essentially a very good week for Donald Trump, across the board.


GOP NOMINATION - national

FOX NEWS POLL, released 16.08.2015:
Overall: 1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Trump 25
Carson 12
Cruz 10
Bush 9
Huckabee 6
Walker 6
Fiorina 5
Kasich 4
Rubio 4
Paul 3
Christie 3
all others: 1 or less

margin: Trump +13

Morning Consult, released 17.08.2015
2,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.5

Trump 32
Bush 12
Carson 7
Huckabee 6
Rubio 6
Cruz 5
Paul 4
Fiorina 4
Christie 4
Perry 2
all others: 1 or less

margin: Trump +20


CNN Poll, released 18.08.2015
Overall: 1,001 Adults, among them 897 RV, MoE =3.0

Trump 24
Bush 13
Carson 8
Walker 7
Rubio 7
Paul 6
Fiorina 5
Kasich 5
Christie 4
Cruz 4
Huckabee 4
Perry 2
all others: 1 or less

margin: Trump +11


The three national nomination polls all show Trump easily on top.



DEM NOMINATION - national

FOX NEWS POLL, released 16.08.2015:
Overall: 1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 49
Sanders 30
Biden 10
Webb 1
O'Malley 1
Chaffee 0
D/N 10

margin: Clinton +19


Morning Consult, released 17.08.2016:

2,013 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 50
Sanders 24
O'Malley 1
Chaffee 0
D/N 20

margin: Clinton +26

CNN Poll, released 19.08.2015:
Overall: 1,001 Adults, among them 897 RV, MoE =3.0

Clinton 47
Sanders 29
Biden 14
Webb 1.8
O'Malley 2
Webb 1
DN / someone else 7

margin: Clinton +19

The three DEM nomination polls (national) show Clinton easily on top.


DEM nomination - by state

Florida:

1,080 DLV, MoE = +/-3.0
officially released 28.07.2015, first published elsewhere 17.08.2015

Clinton 55.1
Sanders 29.1
Webb 1.8
O'Malley 0.7
Chafee 0.2
DN / someone else 13.2

margin: Clinton +26


North Carolina:

PPP (D) poll, released 17.08.2015
957 LV, MoE= +/-3.2

Clinton 55
Sanders 19
O'Malley 2
Chafee 2
Webb 1
DN / someone else 15

margin: Clinton +36




Wisconsin:

Marquette poll, released 20.08.2015:
802 RV, MoE = +/-4.3

Clinton 44.4
Sanders 32.2
Biden 11.7
O'Malley 0.6
Webb 0.5
Chafee 0.5
DN / someone else 10.0

margin: Clinton +12.2


Arizona:
Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 21.08.2015:
Arizona Polling Results
1,433 RV, MoE = +/-2.6

2015-08-021 Gravis-OANN Arizona DEM poll.png

Margin:
 Clinton +22


GOP nomination - by state

North Carolina:

PPP (D) poll, released 17.08.2015
957 LV, MoE= +/-3.2

Trump 24
Carson 14
Bush 13
Cruz 10
Rubio 9
Walker 6
Huckabee 6
Fiorina 6
Paul 3
Santorum 2
Christie 2
all others: 1 or less

margin: Trump +10


Wisconsin:

Marquette poll, released 20.08.2015:
802 RV, MoE = +/-4.3


Walker 25
Carson 13.2
Trump 9.1
Cruz 8.2
Fiorina 7.4
Rubio 7.4
Bush 5.9
Huckabee 3.5
Paul 2.4
Christie 2.1
Jindal 1.5
all others: 1 or less
DN/someone else 10.1

margin: Walker +11.8


Arizona:

MBQF Consulting
787 RLV, MoE = +/-3.5
2015-08-017 MBQF AZ GOP primary poll.png 

Margin: Trump +12.8

Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 21.08.2015:
Arizona Polling Results
1,433 RV, MoE = +/-2.6

2015-08-021 Gravis-OANN Arizona GOP poll.png

Margin: 
Trump +16.9



Illinois:
Victory Research, released 21.08.2015
New Poll Shows Trump Leads GOP Race in Illinois
801 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Trump 23
Bush 17
Walker 11
Carson 6
Fiorina 5
Rubio 5
Cruz 4
Santorum 3
Kasich 2

all others: 1 or less

margin: Trump +6


Presidential matchups, national:

FOX NEWS POLL, released 16.08.2015:
Overall: 1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 42 / Bush 44Bush +2
Clinton 44 / Rubio 46Rubio +2
Clinton 47 / Trump 42Clinton +5
Clinton 47 / Fiorina 40Clinton +7

Clinton 40 / Bush 29 / Trump 23Clinton +11
Clinton 42 / Rubio 30 / Trump 22Clinton +12
Clinton 40 / Trump 25 / Fiorina 24Clinton +15

Bush and Rubio each win a matchup within the MoE (statistical tie). Clinton wins 2 two-way matchups and all three 3-way matchups with margins outside of the MoE.


CNN Poll, released 19.08.2015:
Overall: 1,001 Adults, among them 897 RV, MoE =3.0


Clinton 51 / Trump 45Clinton +6
Clinton 52 / Walker 46Clinton +6
Clinton 52 / Bush 43Clinton +9
Clinton 53 / Fiorina 43Clinton +10

Some interesting internals from the CNN poll:

2015-08-016 CNN poll Biden question.png 

-and-

2015-08-016 CNN poll Clinton vs Trump internals.png



Presidential matchups, state-level:



North Carolina:

PPP (D) poll, released 07.08.2015
957 LV, MoE= +/-3.2
values in parentheses are from the previous PPP (D) poll.

Clinton 44 (44) / Paul 40 (46)Clinton +4 (Paul +1)
Clinton 40 (46) / Christie 39 (43)Clinton +1 (+3)
Clinton 42 (45) / Bush 42 (43), tie (Clinton +3)
Clinton 41 (45) / Fiorina 42 (45), Fiorina +1 (tie)
Clinton 41 Kasich 42 , Kasich +1
Clinton 43 (47) / Cruz 45 (46)Cruz +2 (Clinton +1)
Clinton 41 (43) / Walker 44 (47)Walker +3 (+4)
Clinton 42 (47) / Trump 45 (44), Trump +3 (Clinton +1)
Clinton 41 (46) / Rubio 45 (47)Rubio +4 (+1)
Clinton 45 (45) / Huckabee 49 (49)Huckabee +4 (+4)
Clinton 40 (44) / Carson 47 (49)Carson +7 (+3)





Carson comes out best in this affair, at 7 points ahead of Clinton, 1/2 of Bush 43's margins from 2000 and 2004 but considerably better than Romney's +2 from 2012. In this poll, Clinton wins 2 of 11 matchups, ties with Bush and loses the other 8 matchups. Clinton's +4 over Paul (which is an improvement over the previous poll) and Rubio's and Huckabee's +4 and of course Carson's +4 are outside of the MoE. The other 7 margins are within the MoE.

I've analysed this many time, so suffice it to say that North Carolina has truly become a battleground state, now for the third cycle in a row.







Quinnipiac swing state poll (FL, OH, PA), released 20.08.2015:


Florida: 1,093 RV, +/-3.0
Ohio: 1,096 RV, +/-3.0
Pennsylvania: 1,085 RV, +/-3.0
Values in parenthesis (for Clinton), where possible, are from the previous Quinnipiac poll.

Florida:

Clinton 38 (46) / Bush 49 (42)Bush +11 (Clinton +4)
Clinton 39 (47)  / Rubio 51 (44)Rubio +12 (Clinton +3)
Clinton 41 Trump 43Trump +2
Clinton 37 / Bush 36 / Trump 19Clinton +1

Biden 38 / Bush 51,  Bush +13
Biden 42 / Rubio 48Rubio +6
Biden 45 / Trump 42Biden +3

Sanders 35  / Bush 54Bush +19
Sanders 36  / Rubio 52Rubio +16
Sanders 41  / Trump 45Trump +4


Ohio:

Clinton 41 (42) / Bush 39 (41)Clinton +2 (+1)
Clinton 40 (45)  / Rubio 42 (42)Rubio +2 (Clinton +3)
Clinton 43 Trump 38Clinton +5
Clinton 37 / Bush 27 / Trump 23Clinton +10

Biden 42 / Bush 39,  Biden +3
Biden 42 / Rubio 41Biden +1
Biden 45 / Trump 38Biden +10

Sanders 36  / Bush 42Bush +6
Sanders 34  / Rubio 42Rubio +8
Sanders 42  / Trump 40Sanders +1


Pennsylvania:

Clinton 40 (45) / Bush 43 (41)Bush +3 (Clinton +4)
Clinton 40 (43)  / Rubio 47 (44)Rubio +7 (+1)
Clinton 45 Trump 40Clinton +5
Clinton 37 / Bush 29 / Trump 24Clinton +8

Biden 42 / Bush 43,  Bush +1
Biden 41 / Rubio 44Rubio +3
Biden 48 / Trump 40Biden +8


Sanders 36  / Bush 44Bush +8
Sanders 33  / Rubio 45Rubio +12
Sanders 44  / Trump 41Sanders +3

The Quinnipiac Poll put out four Clinton polls per state (12), 3 Biden polls per state (9) and three Sanders polls per state (9), making for 30 matchups. The numbers for Clinton, compared to two months ago, look grim in Florida, they have barely moved in Ohio, but they have moved moderately in Pennsylvania.

From the matchups in these three key states, Marco Rubio (who is at about 5-6% in GOP nomination polling) does the best and Donald Trump (who is leading in the GOP nomination polling) does the worst. All three Democratic candidates polled beat Trump in Pennsylvania and Ohio, but the Florida numbers represent a massive shift to both Bush and Rubio - that is statistically very significant and, at this time, bad news for Hillary Clinton. For Trump, no comparisons are possible to any past Quinnipiac polls.

I have noted many times over in the last 1.5 years that Qunnipiac has been very bearish on Hillary Clinton and shown narrower margins for her in all 6 of the key battleground states than any other pollster.


Wisconsin:

Marquette poll, released 20.08.2015:
802 RV, MoE = +/-4.3

Clinton 46.6 / Bush 41.5Clinton +5.1
Clinton 51.8 / Walker 41.5Clinton +10.3
Clinton 50.2 / Cruz 38.3Clinton +11.9
Clinton 51.1 / Trump 35.4Clinton +15.7

The Marquette poll shows Clinton between +5.1 and +15.7 over four potential Republican contenders. It's kind of a shame that Marco Rubio was also not polled, since he has been doing well elsewhere. Marquette was one of the two best pollsters for the Badger State in 2012 and is somewhat to Wisconsin as Selzer is to Iowa. This poll also flies in the face of the results of the Quinnipiac swing state polls, but is more in line with national polling overall.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Michigan: it should be noted that a FOX2 / Detroit / Mitchell poll has already been posted at RCP, but the link does not work. As soon as I can actually see the data for real, I will post it, but not before. Mitchell has a reputation for very, very bad polling and has been off as far as 10 points in end polling, compared to the actual results. Just a fair warning.





FAV / UNFAV:


Morning Consult, released 17.08.2016:


2,013 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton fav 43 / unfav 51, -8

CNN Poll, released 18.08.2015:
Overall: 1,001 Adults, among them 897 RV, MoE =3.0

Trump fav 36 / unfav 59, -23 (adults)
Trump fav 38 / unfav 58, -20 (RV)

Bush fav 34 / unfav 56, -22 (adults)
Bush fav 35 / unfav 57, -22 (RV)

CNN Poll, released 19.08.2015
Overall: 1,001 Adults, among them 897 RV, MoE =3.0

Biden fav 45 / unfav 44, +1 (adults)
Biden fav 47 / unfav 46, +1 (RV)

Clinton fav 44 / unfav 53, -9 (adults)
Clinton fav 43 / unfav 55, -12 (RV)

Sanders fav 35 / unfav 27, +8 (adults)
Sanders fav 36 / unfav 29, +7 (RV)

---------------------------------------------------------

North Carolina:

PPP (D) poll, released 17.08.2015:
957 LV, MoE= +/-3.2

Clinton fav 34 / unfav 57, -24
Trump fav 37 / unfav 52, -15
Bush fav 29 / unfav 49, -20
Rubio fav 37 / unfav 38, -1


Quinnipiac swing state poll (FL, OH, PA), released 20.08.2015:
Florida: 1,093 RV, +/-3.0
Ohio: 1,096 RV, +/-3.0
Pennsylvania: 1,085 RB, +/-3.0



Florida:

Clinton fav 37 / unfav 55, -18
Trump fav 36 / unfav 50, -14
Bush fav 53 / unfav 39, +14

Ohio:

Clinton fav 36 / unfav 54, -18
Trump fav 32 / unfav 54, -22
Bush fav 39 / unfav 43, -4

Pennsylvania:

Clinton fav 38 / unfav 55, -17
Trump fav 34 / unfav 55, -21
Bush fav 41 / unfav 43, -2


Wisconsin fav/unfav
Marquette poll, released 20.08.2015:
802 RV, MoE = +/-4.3


Walker fav 39.0 / unfav 57.2, -17.8
Bush fav 24.2 / unfav 46.9, -22.7
Clinton fav 38.2 / unfav 52.6, -14.4





---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





Approve/Disapprove (Obama):

National:

FOX NEWS POLL, released 16.08.2015:
Overall: 1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Obama Approve 42 / disapprove 51, -9


Morning Consult, released 17.08.2016:
2,013 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Obama Approve 42 / disapprove 55, -13

Wisconsin Obama approval:
Marquette poll, released 20.08.2015:
802 RV, MoE = +/-4.3

Obama approve 48.5 / disapprove 47.6, +0.9


North Carolina Obama approval:
PPP (D) poll, released 07.08.2015
957 LV, MoE= +/-3.2

Obama approve 42 / disapprove 52, -10

Arizona Obama approval:

Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 21.08.2015:
Arizona Polling Results
1,433 RV, MoE = +/-2.6

Obama approve 34 / disapprove 59, -25


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Republican images after the first debate:


2015 Gallup net favorables.png



No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.