23 August 2015

2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: Presidential matchups

National Presidential Matchups



3,567 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

This is the first national poll by a Right-Wing leaning pollster to put out matchups for practically every GOP candidate against Hillary. These figures go well against pretty much every other national poll, so the next round of polling from established pollster will either confirm these numbers, or this particular poll may go down in history as an extreme outlier.

Clinton 54 / Graham 46, Clinton +8
Clinton 52 / Pataki 48Clinton +4
Clinton 52 / Walker 48Clinton +4
Clinton 51 / Cruz 49Clinton +2
Clinton 51 / Cruz 49Clinton +2
Clinton 51 / Perry 49Clinton +2
Clinton 51 / Huckabee 49Clinton +2
Clinton 50 / Bush 50, -absolute tie-
Clinton 50 / Rubio 50, -absolute tie-
Clinton 50 / Christie 50, -absolute tie-
Clinton 50 / Paul 50, -absolute tie-
Clinton 48 / Carson 52Carson +4
Clinton 48 / Kasich 52Kasich +4
Clinton 48 / Jindal 52Jindal +4
Clinton 46 / Trump 54Trump +8

Fifteen of the 17 declared Republican candidate were polled against Hillary. The margins range from +8 for Clinton over Graham to +8 for Trump over Clinton. Clinton wins 7 matchups, there are four mathematical ties and the GOP wins 4 matchups.  This is the only poll in which Trump wins nationally.

Since OAN keeps this on it's national polling page, this means that the next results will replace these, and so I have made screenshots of the entire poll:





McClatchy/Marist was the other pollster to poll all of the GOP candidates against Hillary, with vastly different results.


Overall: 1,563 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
Numbers in parentheses = the previous Qpiac poll.

Clinton 44 / Rubio 43, Clinton +1
Clinton 42 (41) / Bush 40 (42), Clinton +2 (Bush +1)
Clinton 45 (48) / Trump 41 (36), Clinton +4 (+12)

Clinton 40 / Bush 24 / Trump 24, Clinton +16

Biden 44 (43) / Bush 41 (42), Biden +3 (+1)
Biden 45 / Bush 39, Biden +6
Biden 48 (49) / Trump 40 (37), Biden +8 (+12)

Sanders 40 Rubio 41, Rubio +1
Sanders 44 (45) / Trump 41 (37), Sanders +3 (+8)
Sanders 43 (39) / Bush 39 (44), Sanders +4


Morning Consult, released 31.08.2015:
Overall, 2,015 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,102 RRV, MoE = likely +/-3.5
parentheses = the previous Morning Consult poll

Clinton 43 (47) / Trump 42 (41) , Clinton +1 (+6)
Clinton 43 (44) / Bush 41 (41) , Clinton +2 (+3)
Clinton 44 (46) / Paul 39 (39) , Clinton +5 (+7)
Clinton 45 (46) / Rubio 39 (39) , Clinton +6 (+7)
Clinton 46 (48) / Walker 35 (35) , Clinton +11 (+13)

Poll internals, from Morning Consult:

Except against Trump, Clinton scores a higher % with Democratic MEN than with Democratic women.


Womens' vote:

Clinton 46 / Bush 37, Clinton +9
Clinton 45 / Paul 35, Clinton +10
Clinton 47 / Trump 35, Clinton +12
Clinton 47 / Rubio 34, Clinton +14
Clinton 47 / Walker 30, Clinton +17

Women's vote benchmark from 2012: Obama +11

Mens' vote:

Clinton 45 / Walker 42, Clinton +3
Clinton 43 / Paul 43, TIE
Clinton 43 / Walker 46, Walker +3
Clinton 40 / Bush 46, Bush +6
Clinton 39 / Trump 50, Trump +11

Mens' vote benchmark from 2012: Romney +7


Latino vote:

Clinton 48 / Bush 42, Clinton +6
Clinton 53 / Paul 35, Clinton +18
Clinton 55 / Rubio 36, Clinton +19
Clinton 56 / Walker 33, Clinton +22
Clinton 58 / Trump 33, Clinton +26

Latino vote benchmark from 2012: Obama +47


White vote:

Clinton 40 / Walker 40, TIE
Clinton 39 / Rubio 44, Rubio +5
Clinton 38 / Paul 44, Paul +6
Clinton 38 / Bush 46, Bush +8
Clinton 37 / Trump 47, Trump +10

White vote benchmark from 2012: Romney +20



Black Vote:

Clinton 74 / Bush 16, Clinton +58
Clinton 75 / Trump 17, Clinton +58
Clinton 75 / Paul 13, Clinton +62
Clinton 76 / Rubio 14, Clinton +62
Clinton 80 / Walker 9, Clinton +71

Black vote benchmark from 2012: Obama +87

Rural vote:

Clinton 35 / Walker 40, Walker +5
Clinton 37 / Rubio 45, Rubio +8
Clinton 35 / Bush 45, Bush +10
Clinton 35 / Paul 45, Paul +10
Clinton 31 / Trump 52, Clinton +19

Metric not measured but assumed is roughly GOP +30.






State Presidential Matchups

Michigan:

FOX 2 / Detroit / Mitchell Research (R), released 21.08.2015:
1,310 LV, MoE = +/-2.7

Clinton 39 / Trump 40, Trump +1
Clinton 40 / Bush 41, Bush +1
Clinton 36 / Rubio 45, Rubio +9

EPIC/MRA, released 25.08.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 40 / Bush 45, Bush +5
Clinton 44 / Trump 42, Clinton +2


Virginia:

Roanoke University Poll, released 25.08.2015:
608 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 41 / Rubio 40, Clinton +1
Clinton 42 / Bush 40, Clinton +2
Clinton 42 / Walker 38, Clinton +4
Clinton 43 / Trump 32, Clinton +11
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New Hampshire:


PPP (D), released 26.08.2015:
841 RV, MoE = +/-3.4

Clinton 41 / Kasich 43, Kasich +2
Clinton 46 / Trump 44, Clinton +2
Clinton 45 / Fiorina 42, Clinton +3
Clinton 46 / Bush 39, Clinton +7
Clinton 48 / Carson 40, Clinton +8
Clinton 47 / Walker 39, Clinton +8
Clinton 47 / Rubio 39, Clinton +8
Clinton 46 / Christie 38, Clinton +8
Clinton 47 / Paul 37, Clinton +10
Clinton 49 / Cruz 38, Clinton +11
Clinton 49 / Huckabee 36, Clinton +13

Clinton 42 / Trump 28Bush 22, Clinton +15


Sanders 47 / Rubio 39, Sanders +8
Sanders 46 / Bush 38, Sanders +8
Sanders 50 / Trump 41, Sanders +9
Sander 48 / Rubio 35, Sanders +13

That makes for 15 of 16 matchups where the Democratic candidates win, and 13 of those 15 are way outside of the MoE. Comparatively speaking, Bernie Sanders does better in this poll than Hillary.

Historical context:

NH, 2012: Obama +5.58%
NH, 2008: Obama +9.61%
NH, 2004: Kerry +1.37%
NH, 2000: Bush 43 +1.27%
NH, 1996: Clinton (Bill) +9.95%
NH, 1992: Clinton (Bill) +1.22%

Right now, NH is NOT looking "battlegroundy".


West Virginia:

Orion Strategies, released 27.08.2015:
406 Respondents overall, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 53 / Clinton 30, Trump +23
Generic Republican 58 / Clinton 26, Generic Republican +32

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