23 August 2015

2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: GOP Nomination

This blog entry will lengthen as the week goes by...

National GOP nomination polling:

IPSOS/Reuters, released 21.08.2015:
501 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 31.9
Bush 15.2
Carson 8.3
Walker 6.7
Huckabee 6.1
wouldn't vote 5.0
Rubio 4.4
Cruz 4.0
Christie 3.5
Fiorina 3.4
Paul 3.2
Perry 2.7
Kasich 2.4
Jindal 1.4
Santorum 1.1
Gilmore 0.5
Graham 0.3
Pataki 0.0

Margin: Trump +16.7




In a three-man matchup:

Trump 44
Bush 29
Carson 25

Margin: Trump +15


IPSOS/Reuters, released 25.08.2015:
511 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 30.1
Huckabee 10.4
Bush 8.3
wouldn't vote 8.0
Walker 6.7
Rubio 5.1
Cruz 4.4
Paul 3.9
Fiorina 3.8
Kasich 2.7
Christie 2.5
Perry 2.3
Jindal 1.1
Santorum 1.0
all others - less than 1.0

Margin: Trump +19.7





The Economist /YouGOV, released 25.08.2015:
2000 A, MoE = +/-2.8

Trump 25
Carson 11
Bush 9
Rubio 9
Walker 9
DN/other 8
Cruz 7
Fiorina 6
Kasich 4
Christie 3
Huckabee 3
all others 1 or less


Margin: Trump +14


Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 26.08.2015:
3,567 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Trump 40.1
Carson 13.0
Bush 10.0
Cruz 7.0
Walker 9
Fiorina 5.2
Kasich 4.8
Rubio 4.7
Huckabee 3.7
Walker 3.5
----
Perry 1.5
Paul 1.5
Christie 1.4
Pataki 1.1
Santorum 1.0
Jindal 0.9
Graham 0.6

Margin: Trump +27.1


Civis Analytics (D), released 26.08.2015:
757 RRV

DN/NA 17
Trump 16
Carson 11
Bush 9
Rubio 7
Huckabee 7
Cruz 7
Walker 5
Kasich 3
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Christie 2
Perry 2
Santorum 1



Margin:  DN/NA +1, Trump +5


Quinnipiac, released 27.08.2015:
Overall: 1,563 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
of them, 666 RRV, MoE = +/-3.8

Trump 28
Carson 12
Bush 9
Rubio 7
Cruz 7
Walker 6
Kasich 5
Fiorina 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 3
Paul 2
Perry 1
Santorum 1



Margin:  DN/NA +1, Trump +16


IPSOS/Reuters, released 27.08.2015:
Overall: 1,152 Adults, MoE = +/-3.3
of them, 415 RRV, MoE = +/-5.5



Margin: Trump +20 (total) Trump +20 (RRV only), Trump +24 (IRV only)

3-Way race: IPSOS











Margin: Trump +23 (total) Trump +24 (RRV only), Trump +25 (IRV only)


Morning Consult, released 31.08.2015:
Overall, 2,015 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,102 RRV, MoE = likely +/-3.5

Trump 37
Bush 9
Carson 9
Huckabee 6
Rubio 6
Walker 5
Paul 4
Cruz
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Kasich 2
Santorum 2
Perry 1
Jindal 1
Santorum 1
all others 0

Margin: Trump +28

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State GOP nomination polling:

New Hampshire:


PPP (D), released 25.08.2015:
436 RRV, MoE = +/-4.7


Trump 35
Kasich 11
Fiorina 10
Bush 7
Walker 7
Carson 6
Christie 4
Cruz 4
Rubio 4
Paul 3
Perry 2
Pataki 1
Santorum 1
all others 0

Margin: Trump +24


South Carolina:

453 LV, MoE = +/-4.6


Trump 30
Carson 15
Bush 9
Walker 6
Rubio 6
Fiorina 6
Cruz 5
Walker 4
Graham 4
Kasich 3
Huckabee 3
Paul 3
Christie 2
Santorum 1
all others 0

Margin: Trump +15

Some key internals:




West Virginia:

Orion Strategies, released 27.08.2015:
406 Respondents overall, MoE = +/-4.9

Other/Undecided 32
Trump 29
Rubio 9
Bush 7
Huckabee 7
Carson 7
Cruz 5
Walker 2
Fiorina 2
Kasich 1
Paul 1

Margin: Other/Undecided +3, Trump +20


Iowa, released 29.08.2015:
400 LRV, MoE = +/-4.9



Margin: Trump +5



Monmouth University Iowa Poll, released 31.08.2015:
405 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 23
Carson 23
Fiorina 10
Cruz 9
Walker 7
Bush 5
Kasich 4
Paul 3
Huckabee 2
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: -TIE-




xxx

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