31 July 2015

07/31 McClatchy-Marist poll: Clinton well ahead of GOP, 3-way race would be disaster for GOP

Trump as Independent Gives New Meaning to Name Billary Home of the Marist Poll Pebbles and Pundits


http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us150722/2016July/Complete July 2015 McClatchy_Marist Poll_2016_Tables.pdf

1,249 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
Among them: 345 RV and R-leaning RV, MoE = +/-5.3, 450 DRV and D-leaning RV, MoE = +/-4.8

Directly from the Marist .pdf:

This makes Marist / McClatchy the very first pollster to put out 17 matchups all at once: Hillary vs. each and every one of the 17 declared GOP candidates.

The margins:

vs. Rubio, Paul: Clinton +5
vs. Bush (Jeb!): Clinton +6
vs. Walker, Perry: Clinton +7
vs. Huckabee, Cruz: Clinton +9
vs. Christie, Kasich, Carson: Clinton +10
vs. Santorum: Clinton +12
vs. Pataki: Clinton +13
vs. Trump, Jindal:  Clinton +16
vs. Graham: Clinton +17
vs. Fiorina: Clinton +18
vs. Gilmore: Clinton +21

So, Hillary Clinton's margins over the GOP field range from +5 to +21.
Currently, the guy who is leading the GOP pack in nomination polling, Donald Trump, is losing to Hillary in this poll by 16 points.

Every single one of those margins is larger than Obama's 2012 margin (+3.86% over Romney) and in 14 of 17 matchups, her margin is also larger than Obama's 2008 margin (+7.26% over McCain)

In a hypothetical three way race:

Clinton (D) 44  / Bush (R)  29 / Trump (I) 20

That three-way race has this important internal:

While Clinton retains her support among her Democratic base in a three-way race, [B]Bush’s support among Republicans freefalls from 92% to 63%, a 29 point difference[/B].  Trump garners 28% of the GOP vote.  Among independents nationally, Clinton’s 6 point edge over Bush, 48% to 42%, more than doubles to 13 points with Trump in the race.

Now, the "Adults" polling screen is the least restrictive of all of the screens. That being said, Marist has a good track record.

In 2012, Marist's end polls were from 8 battleground states, it got all of the calls right, and still had a mathematical bias of 2 points to the Right, not the Left.

You can see that information here:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond The moment of truth how did the pollsters do 

More data at the poll and the tables.

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