29 May 2015

First real 2016 Prez polling out of California

In this blog-entryI mentioned a quirky poll of California vis-a-vis the 2016 Presidential election:

An older poll that slipped through pretty much everyone's fingers came through, it is a quirky poll of California:

Emerson College Poll, taken from 2-8 April, 2015, officially released 13 April, 2015, seen in the medien 28 April 2015,  882 RV, MoE = +/-3.2

Clinton 53 / Bush, J. 47 , margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 53 Walker 47, margin = Clinton +6
          Clinton 55 Cruz 44, margin = Clinton +11
Those are very, very lean Democratic margins for California standards. In fact, the Emerson Poll reports says:

"A new poll conducted in California by the Emerson College Polling Society (ECPS) suggests that the perennially blue state, which has not been won by a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, may be in play for the 2016 election."
Obama won Californa by +23 in 2012 and by +24 in 2008. The end-polling aggregate for California in 2012 predicted: Obama +15.80, so the end-aggregate was off by 7 points to the Right.
I am not saying it's impossible that the margins are this small. It's possible, but it's very unlikely. Also, Emerson College, from Massachusetts, usually does polling on the East Coast and it very much out of it's area, so say the least.
I will also remind that in 2008, there was one Siena Poll from New York that showed Obama up on McCain by only +4 in April of that year. In November, he won by almost +26.
But I will surely be keeping an eye on California to see if a pattern emerges.

Well, a poll from a respected California pollster has indeed come out and the results are predictably positive for Team Clinton, in great contrast to the quirky Emerson poll:

The Field Poll, take from 23 April to 16 May, 2015, released 22 May 2015, 801 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 52 Bush, J. 31 , margin = Clinton +21
Clinton 53 Rubio 32, margin = Clinton +21
Clinton 54 Walker 30, margin = Clinton +24

Clinton is tromping in California, with margins between +21 and +24 over Bush, Rubio and Walker.

A plus for this poll is that it is of LIKELY VOTERS, a voter screen that has been traditionally friendlier to the Republicans - obviously not in this case. A minus for this poll is that the polling time-frame of 3 full weeks is really way too long.

How did Field do in 2012 and 2008?

The final Field Poll for California in 2012 showed Obama 54 / Romney 39, margin = Obama +15. Obama won California by just a little more than +23 in 2012, so Field was off to the RIGHT by 8 full points in 2012.

And in 2008:

The final Field Poll for California in 2008 showed Obama 55 / McCain 33, margin = Obama +22.
Obama won California by just a little more than +24 in 2008, so Field was just slightly off to the Right in that year, by 2 points.

The point is: Field does not show a Left-leaning bias in it's polling.

The margins we are seeing now in California, Oregon and Washington State are all in line with what we saw in both 2008 and 2012. The only state that may indeed show a lesser margin would be Hawaii, since it is not Clinton's birth-state. Wait and see.

California's 55 EV will be going for the Democratic Party in 2016.

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