28 May 2015

2016 Prez polling: Washington State, dueling pollsters

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Two very different pollsters polled the great state of Washington at practically the same time, with similar results, albeit varying margins. There is lots of interesting information here, something for both sides to contentedly munch on.


PPP (D),  879 RV, taken from 14-17 May, 2015, released on 21 May, 2015, MoE = +/-3.3

Hillary Clinton 49 / Marco Rubio 39, margin = Clinton +10
Hillary Clinton 48 / Jeb Bush 37, margin = Clinton +11
Hillary Clinton 49 / Ben Carson 38, margin = Clinton +11
Hillary Clinton 49 / Scott Walker 38, margin = Clinton +11
Hillary Clinton 50 / Rand Paul 38, margin = Clinton +12
Hillary Clinton 50 / Ted Cruz 38, margin = Clinton +12
Hillary Clinton 50 / Mike Huckabee 37, margin = Clinton +13
Hillary Clinton 50 / Rick Perry 37, margin = Clinton +13
Hillary Clinton 49 / Chris Christie 34, margin = Clinton +15

The PPP (D) poll shows Clinton with a landslide margin of between +10 and +15 over the entire GOP field in a very blue state, so that is no huge surprise.


Next:

Gravis (R), 1032 LV, taken from 17-19 May, 2015, MoE = +/-3.0


Hillary Clinton 45 / Marco Rubio 42, margin = Clinton +3
Hillary Clinton 47 / Rand Paul 42, margin = Clinton +5
Hillary Clinton 46 / Scott Walker 40, margin = Clinton +6
Hillary Clinton 47 / Mike Huckabee 40, margin = Clinton +7
Hillary Clinton 45
 / Jeb Bush 37, margin = Clinton +8
Hillary Clinton 48 / Ted Cruz 40, margin = Clinton +8
Hillary Clinton 46 / Chris Christie 37, margin = Clinton +9

The Gravis (R) poll shows Clinton with a margin of between +3 and +9 over the entire GOP field. Though the margins are slimmer, there are some commonalities between the two polls:

-in both polls, Marco Rubio comes the closest to Hillary, and Chris Christie does the worst.
-in the PPP (D) poll, all of the margins are well out of the MoE. In the Gravis (R) poll, 6 of 7 margins are well out of the MoE.

Democratic nomination:

PPP (D):

Clinton 57 / Sanders 24 / O'Malley 4, margin: Clinton +33

Gravis (R):

Clinton 35 / Sanders 26 / Warren 19, margin: Clinton +9

Here is also a commonality: Sanders at about 1/4 of the Democratic vote in a very left-leaning state. The difference between PPP and Gravis is that PPP didn't poll Warren, who has already indicated that she in not running, while Gravis, for some reason, did.

Republican nomination:

PPP (D):

Walker 18 / Rubio 15 / Huckabee 13 / Cruz 11 / Bush, J 10 / Carson 10 / Christie 5 / Paul 5 / Perry 3, margin = Walker +3, but there are 6 candidates in double digits and no one gets to 20.

Gravis (R):

Paul 13.2 / Walker 12.4 / Bush, J 11.5 / Rubio 11.3 / Carson 7.6, margin = Paul +0.8 (statistical tie with Walker)

Very disparate results for the GOP nomination between PPP (D) and Gravis (R), especially in the case of Rand Paul.

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When we compare the current results from PPP (D) and Gravis (R) to the 2012 presidential cycles, only a 1/2 comparison is possible, for only PPP (D) put out an end-poll (within the last week before the 2012 election) and Gravis put out a poll on 27 September 2012, which as cold coffee come election time, but the results may surprise you alot, especially for those who think that PPP (D) has a bias to the Left.

Washington State, 2012, election results:

Obama 55.80% / Romney 40.03% / Other 3.18%, margin: Obama +14.77% (+15)

PPP (D) end poll, released 01 November, 2012:

Obama 53 / Romney 46, margin: Obama +7

PPP (D) was off 8 points to the RIGHT in it's end poll of Washington State. Whereas it nailed 11 of 12 battleground states in 2012, in some western states like WA and also MT, it was off considerably, but picked the correct winner.

Gravis (R), on the other hand, in it's late September poll, was actually to the LEFT of the actual results:

Obama 56.4 / Romney 38.6, margin: Obama +17.8 (+18)

In 2012, both SUSA and YouGov were the most accurate pollsters in Washington State.

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In terms of electoral history, Washington State is now a 7-for-7 Democratic state on the presidential level, having gone for the Democratic candidate every time since Michael Dukakis in 1988:

1988: Dukakis +1.59
1992: Clinton +11.44
1992: Clinton +11.44
1992: Clinton +12.54
2000: Gore +5.58
2004: Kerry +7.17
2008: Obama +17.08
2012: Obama +14.77

Gore is the candidate who did the worst in this state in the last 24 years. Kerry actually improved the statistic for this state in 2004. In 4 of the last 7 election nights, Washington State has been called immediately at poll closing time for the Democratic nominee (1992, 1996, 2008 and 2012).

More electoral information over WA here.

How do Clinton's PPP values look like compared to the first Obama Washington State poll for 2012, taken in May, 2011?

Well, here it is:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WA_0519.pdf

Obama 51 / Romney 40, margin = Obama +11
Obama 53 / Huckabee 39, margin = Obama +14
Obama 54 / Gingrich 36, margin = Obama +18
Obama 57 / Palin 34, margin = Obama +23
Obama 58 / Trump 31, margin = Obama +27

So, Obama, like Clinton, started in completely safe territory, but his margins over Gingrich, Palin and Trump were considerably larger.

Notice that both Obama's and Clinton's margins over Huckabee are practically identical to each other. What is different are the toplines: Obama was well over 50%, whereas Clinton is under or at 50%.

Is there any real reason why the Marco Rubio or Rand Paul margins between PPP and Gravis in these 2015 polls should be so disparate? No, there is no reason for why they should be.

The one thing we see is that Washington State, just as suspected, and just like neighbor state Oregon, is a safe (D) state.

Updates as they come in.

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