06 May 2015

2016 Prez polling in Arizona: 2015 compared to 2014

600 RV were polled from 01 May to 03 May, 2015; the poll was released today (06 May, 2015), MoE = +/- 4.0

Short version:  9 matchups, Clinton "wins" 1, there are 2 absolute ties and the GOP "wins" 6.

From the PPP (D) report:

[QUOTE]Clinton is within 3 points in match ups with 7 out of 9 of the Republicans we tested. She actually leads Rick Perry 44/41 and she is tied with Jeb Bush (at 41%), and Ben Carson (at 42%). She is down by 1 point each to Ted Cruz and Scott Walker (44/43), by 2 points to Marco Rubio (43/41), and by 3 points to Mike Huckabee (44/41). The only Republicans with more robust leads are Rand Paul who's ahead by 5 points at 45/40 and Chris Christie who's up by 7 points at 46/39. Clinton's deficit in every match up is smaller than the amount Barack Obama lost the state by in 2008 and 2012.[/QUOTE]

PPP (D) polled Arizona in March of 2014, and so we are able to compare matchups with Christie, Paul, Bush, J. and Huckabee. The other 5 matchups were not taken in 2014.

Here are the numbers (numbers in parentheses are from the previous PPP poll from 05 March, 2014)

Christie 46 (41) / Clinton 39 (44), margin = Christie +7 (Clinton +3) 
Paul 45 (43) / Clinton 40 (46), margin = Paul +5 (Clinton +3) 
Huckabee 44 (41) / Clinton 41 (47)margin = Huckabee +3 (Clinton +6) 
Rubio 43 Clinton 41 , margin = Rubio +2
Walker 44 Clinton 43 , margin = Walker +1 
Cruz 44 Clinton 43 , margin = Cruz +1
Carson 42  Clinton 42  margin = TIE
Bush 41 (45) Clinton 41 (44) , margin = TIE (Bush +1)
Clinton 44 / Perry 41, margin = Clinton +3

Just for fun, in the 2014, there was one matchup that was not in the 2015 poll:
Clinton 46 / Brewer 39, margin = Clinton +7

Of the nine matchups from the 2015 poll, 7 are well within the MoE.

Now, people from the Right will be happy to hear some of this analysis:

in spite of close numbers, Hillary is actually doing worse in Arizona vis-a-vis the 2014 poll, excepting the matchup against Jeb Bush.

Against Christie, it has gone from Hillary +3 to Christie +7 - margin shift = 10 points toward the GOP.

Against Huckabee, it has gone from Hillary +6 to Huckabee +3 - margin shift = 9 points toward the GOP.

Against Paul, it has gone from Hillary +3 to Paul +5 - margin shift = 8 points toward the GOP.

Those are some pretty major shifts.

But against Bush, it has gone from Bush +1 to an absolute tie - margin shift = 1 point toward Hillary. That is a negligible shift.

That's the good news for the GOP.

The bad news is that it should never be this close in Arizona to begin with.

Here is the electoral history of AZ at the presidential level, going back to it's first participation in the EC in 1912:


Source. And, with thanks to Dave Leip, who allows me to use his resources for illustrative purposes.
The color coding is REVERSED. Red = DEMBlue = GOP.

So, cutting to the chase: From 1928 until 2004 (76 year time span), in every cycle in which the Republican won the White House in both the NPV and the EC, he won Arizona by +15 points or more. 2000 was the first cycle since 1924 where a Republican won the White House but only won Arizona in single digits. However, if you recall, Al Gore (D) actually won the popular vote that year. In 2004, Bush 43 retained Arizona for the GOP by +10.45% and sprang back into double digits.

So, the logic is that a GOPer who is only in single digits in Arizona is probably in trouble nationwide - OR the state is going through a demographic shift - OR both.

BTW, from 1912 through 1956, AZ was actually a bellwether state, having gone with the winner of the GE for 12 cycles in a row. In 1960, it lost it's bellwether status. Bill Clinton was the first Democrat to win AZ (1996) in 48 years, albeit in a three-man race where Ross Perot (I-TX) did better in AZ than he did nationally.

I am not saying that Hillary Clinton is going to win Arizona. I am saying that the numbers are far too close, that the GOP should be having a substantial lead over her. She is close enough that if the numbers stay like this, it would justify making a play for the state. George W. Bush, Jr. never enjoyed these kind of numbers in either New Jersey or Hawaii in 2004, and yet, he made a play for both.

The three end-polls were Romney +8, +7 and +8.

PPP (D) predicted Romney +7, it was 2 points off to the Left in that state, one of the few states where it was off to the Left.

So, keeping an eye on a state like Arizona does help us to gauge the national flow of things.

The weakness here is that to-date, there has only been polling from one pollster, so I will be glad to see AZ polling from other firms as time goes by.

Again, for a Republican to be winning nationally, he will need to come substantially over +10 in Arizona.

And just for fun: in 2012, 97 times more votes were cast for President in Arizona than in 1912, 100 years before. That is some MASSIVE growth in this state.

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