05 May 2015

05.05.2015: Special election in NY-11



This election is to fill the seat of former US Rep. Michael Grimm (R), who resigned at the tail-end of 2014, so this seat will have been vacant for a little more than four months.


Here the WIKI for today's election:


3 candidates:

Daniel M. Donovan, Jr. (Republican / Conservative / Independence)
Vincent Gentile (Democratic / Working Families)
James Lane (Green)

In NY, candidates are allowed to run under more than one party designation.

All three candidates are filed with the FEC and the Republican has the deeper financial warchest.




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The district covers all of Staaten Island and just bit of the coastline area of Brooklyn.

It has a Cook PVI rating of: R+2, meaning that, according to the average of the last three elections, the district has a very slight Republican tilt. It is the only district in New York City that has this political tilt.

It's impossible to compare the results of NY-11 to anything before 2012, because the district boundaries were moved from all of Brooklyn (which has a completely different demographic make-up) to all of Staaten Island.

That being said, Staaten Island itself went for McCain by +3 points in 2008 and for Obama by +4 points in 2012. It is one of the very, very few CDs in the country to actually be picked-up by the President in 2012.  At the same time, Michael Grimm won Staaten Island by +3 in 2010, by +7 in 2012 and +13 in 2014 (with the help of a Green Party candidate who took 3% and 4% were blanks, which are counted under New York law). So, it's apparently a split-ticket district as well.

There has been no polling for this special race and the candidates were hand-picked by their respective parties, so there is absolutely no telling how this will go, especially in a District that is such a tossup district. Flip a coin. It is also very likely that VT will be very low.

The conventional wisdom, however, and especially with a Green Party candidate on the ballot, is that the Republican goes into today's election with a slight edge, irrespective of Michael Grimm's scandals. I will update later with actual vote totals.

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