21 April 2015

Hillary week 1: polling results

It has now been 9 days since Hillary Clinton declared her candidacy and some polling results have come in. Not all of them were actually taken in the time-frame after her candidacy was declared, but as of this week, that will definitely be the case.


National:

Rasmussen Polling, released 14.04.2015
1000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0, polled on 09.04 and 12.04.2015
So, the second day of this poll was on the day that Hillary announced, but not after.



Clinton 47 / Paul 37, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 47 / Cruz 37, margin = Clinton +10


So, based on data from before Clinton's announcement, she leads both declared Republicans by +10. One notes that Rasmussen ALWAYS finds a way to keep a Democrat under 50% as long as possible. Considering that Rasmussen has a proven mathematical bias of +4 to the Right, both of these margins could easily be more like +14, more in line with most all other national polling.


1,018 A, MoE = +/-3.0, polled from 16.04 to 19.04, all after Hillary and Rubio's announcements.
The values in (parentheses) are from the previous CNN/ORC poll for that particular matchup.

Clinton 55 (55) / Rubio 41 (42), margin = Clinton +14 (+13)
Clinton 56 (55) / Bush, J 39 (40), margin = Clinton +17 (+15)
Clinton 58 (54) / Paul 39 (43), margin = Clinton +19 (+11)
Clinton 58 (55) / Christie 39 (40), margin = Clinton +19 (+15)
Clinton 58 (55) / Huckabee 37 (41), margin = Clinton +21 (+14)
Clinton 59 (55) / Walker 37 (40), margin = Clinton +22 (+15)
Clinton 60 (60) / Cruz 36 (35), margin = Clinton +24 (+25)
Clinton 60 (56) / Carson 36 (40), margin = Clinton +24 (+16)

In the CNN/ORC poll, Hillary Clinton is well above the 50 mark in all 8 matchups and beats her prospective Republican opponents by between a landslide +14 and a blowout +24. There have now been 67 national polls, Hillary vs. specific GOP challengers, making for 241 matchups to-date, of which Hillary has decisively won 234 (97.10%). This poll, with the matchups against Cruz and Carson, make for the third time that Hillary has hit the 60% mark in a national poll.  I can guarantee you that since 1984, no candidate has hit the 60 mark in any national polling. If you go to the CNN link, you will see how well Hillary is doing in the female vote: +27 over Rubio / +32 over Bush, J and Carson / +34 over Christie / +35 over Walker and Cruz / +36 over Paul / +39 over Huckabee. Just to remind: Obama won the female vote in 2012 by +11Hillary is at double to triple that margin.

Also in the CNN/ORC poll:

Democratic nomination:

Hillary 69 / Biden 11 / Sanders 5 / Someone else 5 / Webb 3 / Chafee 1 / O'Malley 1, margin = Hillary +58


Republican nomination:

Bush, J 17 / Walker 12 / Paul 11 / Rubio 11 / Huckabee 9 / Cruz 7 / Someone else 5 / Carson 4 / Christie 3 / Santorum 3 / Fiorina 2 / Graham 2 / Jindal 2 / Kasich 2, margin = Bush, J +5


So, one week after the Clinton rollout, apparently, her method helped her among Democrats: she has gone from 62% to 69% and is absolutely the prohibitive front-runner for the DEM nomination.

The GOP field looks just as muddy as it has looked the entire time, which is not unusual for the opposition party going into an open cycle. However, none of these candidates are doing as well as Mitt Romney was doing at this point of time in 2011: he was hanging at right around 23% in most polling.



Wisconsin:


Marquette University Poll, released 16.04.2015
803 RV, MoE = +/-3.5, the interviews were conducted from 07.04 to 10.04, BEFORE Hillary's announcement.  The values in (parentheses) are from the previous Marquette poll for that particular matchup.



Clinton 49  / Paul 41, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 49 (50) / Bush, J 38 (39), margin = Clinton +11 (+10)
Clinton 50 / Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +12 
Clinton 52 (53.3) / Walker 40 (40.6), margin = Clinton +12 (+12.7)
Clinton 52 (55.3)  / Cruz 36 (33.4), margin = Clinton +16 (+21.9)

The Marquette University poll shows Clinton leading five prospective GOP opponents by between +8 and +16. Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by +14 and in 2012 by +7, so even Hillary's leanest value is larger than Obama's actual win from 2012. That being said, the margin against Cruz has shrunken some.  With values like that, if they hold, then Wisconsin is nowhere near being a battleground state in 2016.

A PPP (D) poll from Wisconsin in March showed leaner margins than this, so it will be interesting to see what both their next poll and Marquette's next poll says.

Marquette was one of the three best pollsters in the final polling of Wisconsin in 2012. It predicted Obama +8, he won by +7, so Marquette was off to the Left by 1 point. Rasmussen, on the other hand, completely missed the call, called a tie, and was therefore off by 7 points to the Right.

To-date, there have now been 9 polls of the Badger state, with 40 individual matchups, of which Hillary has won 37, the GOP has won 2 and there has been 1 mathematical tie.



Florida:

Mason-Dixon (R) poll, released 20.04.2015
625 RV, MoE = +/-4.5, the interviews were held from 14.04 to 18.04.2015

Rubio 49 / Clinton 43, margin = Rubio +6
Bush, J 47 / Clinton 43, margin = Bush, J +4


This is the first Mason-Dixon of this cycle for Florida, so there is no older data with which to compare.

In 2012, the final Mason-Dixon poll of Florida, released 02.11.2012, predicted Romney +6 (Romney 51 / Obama 45). In reality, Obama won by 1, so Mason-Dixon was off by 7 full points to the Right in the Orange-Juice state and had the highest mathematical bias of any of the end pollster for that state in that year.  So, Mason-Dixon's reputation is already severely damaged. However, in a breach with their tradition, M/D did release some internals with this poll.  And in doing so, M-D shows Hillary just barely winning the female vote in Florida, by +4 over Bush and by +8 over Rubio, well under the national margins in the female vote. I consider this to be highly, highly unlikely, especially considering that Florida is a microcosm for the nation in many ways.

In a national atmosphere where Hillary is leading ALL GOP comers by landslide margins, it is unlikely that she is losing in Florida. There have now been 23 polls of Florida and 89 specific-name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has won 83.

Either way, it will be interesting to see what the NEXT Mason-Dixon poll says.


New Jersey:


Quinnipiac Poll, released 21.04.2015
1,428 RV, MoE = +/-2.6, survey taken from 09.04 to 14.04.2015, so part of the survey is after Hillary and Rubio's announcements. The values in (parentheses) are from the previous Quinnipiac poll for that particular matchup.


Clinton 51 (52) / Christie 36 (39)margin = Clinton +15 (+13)
Clinton 54 (54) / Paul 34 (35),margin = Clinton +20 (+19)Clinton 53 (53) / Bush, J 33 (37),margin = Clinton +20 (+16)Clinton 54 / Rubio 34 , margin = Clinton +20 
Clinton 54 
Walker 32, margin =Clinton +22 
Clinton 56 (56) / 
Huckabee 30 (33), margin = Clinton +26 (+23)
Clinton 58 / 
Cruz 30 , margin = Clinton +28
Clinton is dominating in New Jersey, with margins between +15 over Christie to +28 over Cruz. Six of those seven margins are +20 and above. Yes, New Jersey is part of the BLUE WALL and has gone reliably for the Democratic Party now for 6 cycles in a row, but usually with margins around +15, not +28. If the closest that Chris Christie can get to Hillary in his home state is 15 points behind, how can he compete nationally. George W. Bush (43) made a real play for this state in 2007 and lost it by 7 points.


To-date, there have been 15 polls of New Jersey, with 40 matchups. Hillary has decisively won 39 of them.



New Hampshire



PPP (D), New Hampshire, released 21.04.2015, the surveys were taken from April 9 to April 13, so only part of the survey crowd was interviews AFTER Hillary's entrance into the race. The values in (parentheses) are from the previous PPP (D) for that particular matchup - from 16.01.2014.


Clinton 49 (50) / Paul 40 (37), margin = Clinton +9 (+13)
Clinton 49 / Walker 40, margin = Clinton +9
Clinton 50 Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +12 
Clinton 49 (49) / Bush, J 36 (38), margin = Clinton +13 (+11)
Clinton 51 / Huckabee 38, margin = Clinton +13 
Clinton 51 / Carson 38, margin = Clinton +13 
Clinton 51 / Perry 38, margin =Clinton +13
Clinton 51 (43) / Christie 36 (39), margin = Clinton +15 (+4)
Clinton 52 (51) / Cruz 37 (32), margin = Clinton +15 (+19)
Here we see that Clinton is winning in the "Live free or Die" state by +9 to +15, with 4 of those margins at +13 and seven margins in double digits, also seven margins where Hillary is at 50 or above. Once again, Ted Cruz is at the bottom of the list, but this time, Chris Christie is there with him. Christie is the candidate who has lost the most ground against Hillary in the last year. Rand Paul has actually gained ground.


But if these numbers hold, then New Hampshire would not even be a battleground in 2016.


The last - and only time a Democrat won New Hampshire with over 
+10? LBJ, 1964.



Iowa

So, a poll of Iowa was published late yesterday (21 April 2015) by Gravis Marketing (R), paid for by TownHall.com and the results show pretty much the same that all other pollsters are showing: that Iowa is indeed very, very competitive:

2016 Iowa poll: Bush leads crowded GOP field; Rice beats Clinton head-to-head 43% to 40% - Gravis

1259 RV, MoE = +/-3.0. Gravis (R) declined to list the exact time-frame in which this poll was taken, so that is anyone's guess. I have sent an email to ask them for the time-frame. Hillary was pitted against ten prospective candidates and for the first time, both Condoleeza Rice and Carly Fiorina were in the matchups. Most of these matchups are statistical ties. Values in parentheses are from the previous Gravis poll, from March 2015:

Rice 43 / Clinton 40, margin = Rice +3
Clinton 44 (44) / Paul 43 (39), margin = Clinton +1 (+5)
Clinton 44 (45) / Huckabee 43 (40), margin = Clinton +1 (+5)
Clinton 42 (45) / Christie 39 (35), margin = Clinton +3 (+10)
Clinton 43 (43) / Bush 40 (37), margin = Clinton +3 (+7)
Clinton 45 Rubio 42 , margin = Clinton +3Clinton 44 Walker 40 , margin = Clinton +4Clinton 44 Fiorina 37 , margin = Clinton +7
Clinton 47 Cruz 40 , margin = Clinton +7
Clinton 45 Carson 37 , margin = Clinton +8

In all matchups where we can compare to March, Clinton has lost ground to her GOP counterparts. And in 6 of 10 matchups, it's a statistical tie, which is pretty much what we have been seeing in Iowa the entire time. IN fact, the margins look a lot like the margins from Quinnipiac and Bloomberg and also PPP (D), so we are seeing a lot of consistency, here.



So, those were the numbers for the first week, post-Hillary announcement.

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