11 May 2014

2016 GE: Hillary Clinton vs. GOP Field, Part IV



This is a continuation of the first Hillary vs. GOP polling series that I started on March 17, 2013:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Clinton vs. GOP field, 2016 GE, Part I

Here are Part II  -and- Part III.

Back in March of 2013, 14 states had been polled. As of August 6th, 2013, it was 21 states. As of November 15th, 2013, 23 states had been polled, there has been extensive national polling and also one specialty poll (Latino Decisions). By the end of 2013, 26 states had been polled and now, as of May 10, 2014, 28 states have now been polled, 27 of which contain presidential match-ups (the lone California poll only has Clinton FAV/UNFAV ratings).

Let's see how this looks on a map. Here are the 26 states that were polled as of the end of 2013. The following colors have nothing to do with the political inclination of any state nor do they indicate who is winning. They just indicate geography.:



Now, of those 26 states, 18 have been freshly polled in 2014 thus far:



Add to that the two states have have been polled only in 2014 and are therefore very fresh:





The last time I reported on Hillary Clinton and polling (in late November of 2013), as of that point in time, there had been 83 polls total (including national polls), making for 209 Hillary vs. (GOP) match-ups. of which Hillary won 170 (81.34%).

Now, as of today, state and national polls together, there have been:

156 polls total, making for 508 presidential matchups.

Hillary Clinton has won 410 of those 508 matchups (80.71%)
The GOP field of various candidates have won 87 of those matchups (17.13%)
There have been 11 mathematical ties (2.17%)

So, in spite of the fact that the number of polls has almost doubled since the end of November 2013 and the number of matchups has more than doubled since then, the actual statistic of wins for Hillary Clinton has remained very stable.

Here an exact table, by state, with the number of polls, matchups, and who won:

State No. of polls No. of Matchups Clinton wins GOP wins Ties
National 41 122 118 4 0
AK 3 14 3 11 0
AR 2 5 4 1 0
AZ 1 5 4 1
CA 1 0 0 0 0
CO 8 27 14 11 2
FL 8 29 29 0 0
GA 2 9 8 0 1
IA 9 34 30 3 1
KS 2 6 0 6 0
KY 3 8 4 3 1
LA 4 14 5 7 2
ME 1 4 4 0 0
MI 5 15 15 0 0
MN 1 2 2 0 0
MS 1 4 0 4 0
MT 3 8 0 7 1
NH 8 20 19 1 0
NJ 5 7 6 1 0
NM 1 6 6 0 0
NY 6 8 8 0 0
NC 7 26 23 3 0
OH 4 21 20 0 1
PA 6 23 22 1 0
TX 4 18 5 13 0
VA 12 36 35 0 1
WV 1 5 0 5 0
WI 5 24 23 0 1
WY 1 5 0 5 0
Latino 1 3 3 0 0
TOTAL state polls 115 386 292 83 11
TOTAL state and national 156 508 410 87 11
% state polls only

75,65% 21,50% 2,85%
% state and nat'l together

80,71% 17,13% 2,17%



All of the polling values are here in this EXCEL DOCUMENT.

Here is a screenshot of an example of how the table is layed out, using the state of Florida as an example:



You will notice that the polls are numbered in reverse chronological order, with the latest poll at the top. All polls are linked, so you can click on the link for every single poll and see the results for yourself. The release date of the poll (European dating system) is then following by the survey size and MoE (Margin of Error). Then, if there are any FAV/UNFAV numbers or DEM nomination figures, they come next.

The Presidential matchups follow in this order:

Clinton vs. Christie
Clinton vs. Paul
(at the point the screenshot shows no more, you would have to scoll out at the excel table to see the rest)
Clinton vs. Ryan
Clinton vs. Cruz
Clinton vs. Bush, J.
Clinton vs. Rubio
Clinton vs. Huckabee

And then, any other GOP candidates that have been polled in that particular state.

The numbers are COLOR CODED (blue = DEM / red = GOP) and bolded = the higher value. Wherever you see values in italic, that means a mathematical tie.


The following 26 pollsters have polled Hillary vs. GOP matchups thus far:

Quinnipiac
Rasmussen
NBC (Princeton)
PPP (D)
Monmouth
Marist / McClatchy
Gallup
Bloomberg
YouGov
CNN / ORC
ABC / WAPO
The Field Poll
Gravis (R)
WMUR / UNH
Harper (R)
Purple Strategies
Marquette University Poll
Latino Decisions
The Arkansas Poll
The Polling Company
Conservative Intel
MRG (R)
Dartmouth
Rutgers/Eagleton
Siena
Roanoke

Here is a map of those states that have been polled, colored by the winner of the majority of the match-ups. In the case of Colorado and Kentucky it's really quite close, so I am leaving both states green for now.




This map is NOT a prediction map. It only shows who has won the majority of matchups.


What to make of all of this?

Well, it's still early, but the trend we have seen all through 2013 has continued into 2014, namely, that Hillary Clinton is demonstrably ahead in the battleground states that have decided the last 6 elections cycles. Not only is she ahead in those states, she is decisively ahead.  And in states where the GOP is winning, the margins are reduced.


1.) The Quntifecta: Florida (29 EV), Pennsylvania (20 EV) Ohio (18 EV), North Carolina (15 EV) and Virginia (13 EV). Total EV: 95

In every one of those 5 states, Hillary is ahead.

In Virginia, the most polled state thus far (here is the EXCEL tab for Virginia), there have been 12 polls with 36 matchups. Hillary has won 35 of them, there was one tie. The GOP has won not one single matchup in the Old Dominion, once a bedrock GOP state. The tie was against Christie, in September of 2013, long before Bridgegate. All said and told, Hillary is at between +4 and +14 against GOP candidates, all margins larger than Obama's 2012 win. 

In Florida, the third most polled state thus far (here is the EXCEL tab for Florida), there have been 8 polls with 29 matchups and Hillary has won every single matchup, with the majority of the margins in the double digits. No Democratic candidate that I know of has scored these type of margins in Florida in modern polling history.

The kind of polling we are seeing out of Florida and Virginia should be the no. 1 warning sign for the GOP.

In North Carolina, the fourth most polled state, (here is the EXCEL tab for North Carolina), there have been 7 polls and 26 matchups, of which Hillary Clinton has won 23. A strike against this data is that all of the polls have been from PPP (D) and I would much prefer to see a broad base of pollsters, as is the case with Virginia and Florida. The margins are also smaller, but consistent. PPP (D), which is based in North Carolina, nailed the polling in 2008, but called a tie in NC in 2012, where Romney won by +2.04%, so PPP (D) missed it in 2012. Alone the fact that this state is still unbelievably competitive is a bad sign for the GOP.

In Ohio, less polled than the others, (here is the EXCEL tab for Ohio), there have been 4 polls and 21 matchups, of which Hillary has won 20. And in 12 of those 20 wins, Hillary is winning with double digit margins over her opponents. The last time a Democrat won Ohio with more than a single digit margin: LBJ, 1964. Before that? FDR, 1936. Both of those elections were massive blowout elections for the Democratic Party. Bill Clinton barely won Ohio in 1992, but he won it by +6 in 1996. Obama won it by +4.6 in 2008 and by +3 in 2012. There has not been a poll of Ohio since 1988 to show a candidate of any party in double digits. This is an extremely important data point to remember. Again, it's not just one poll or one matchup where she is winning with double digits: it's in 12 matchups spread out over 3 polls.

In Pennsylvania, also one of the less polled states, (here is the EXCEL tab for Pennsylvania), there have been 6 polls and 23 matchups, Hillary has won 22 of them. And, similar to Ohio, 15 of those 22 wins are double-digits wins. Here, Christie still does the best of the GOP field.

So, of the Quintifecta, we have three of five states (VA, OH, FL) where, if the double-digit margins hold like this, those states will not even be true battlegrounds on election day 2016.

2.) Clinton is showing considerable strength in the so-called "Clinton 6 states" (three of which have been polled). The "Clinton 6", as I call them, are the six southern states that Bill Clinton won in both 1992 and 1996, that Obama never won. They are: WV, KY, MO, AR, LA and TN.  I did a write up over this phenomenon in November 2012.


Three of those "Clinton 6 have been polled": WV, KY and AR. Only one poll out of WV, but it confirms that the massive Romney landslide victory of 2012 is likely to hold for any Republican in 2016. But in Kentucky, it could be a horserace, and in Arkansas (the former home-state of the Clintons), we now have a second poll showing Hillary ahead of the GOP field, excepting fellow home-stater Mike Huckabee. Now, Mitt Romney won West Virginia by +27 and Arkansas by +24 and also made little known electoral history in 2012 as being the first Republican ever for whom both of these erstwhile Democratic bastions were called for a Republican immediately at poll closing time, but the Clinton polling here is divergent: she is losing in WV but winning somewhat in AR. However, she is under 50 in AR, there are lots of undecideds and things could change again. I have personally been thinking that Hillary would have better chances in Missouri, a state where Obama and McCain practically tied in 2008, but Romney won handily in 2012, than in Arkansas. Wait and see.

3.) Individual states that had been battlegrounds in 2000, 2004 and to some extent, in 2012, look very solid for Clinton: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico and New Hampshire.  

In the West, also part of a very consistent pattern, Clinton is struggling mightily in Colorado, she has the entire time. If there is a state that the GOP has the best chances of regaining from 2008-2012, it is probably the Rocky Mountain State. Wait and see.  It also appears to be close in Iowa, but Clinton is winning.

In the state of New York, an expected blue state, Clinton has margins upwards of +40. The last (and only) time a Democrat won NY with circa +40? LBJ, 1964. 

Likewise, the GOP is easily winning Wyoming, by an average of about +27. George W. Bush (43) won Wyoming with over +40 both times.

Now, you might say: "Why quote NY and WY? NY is going to go blue and WY is going to go red!" And I will say: "a rising tide lifts all boats".

Expanded margins for Clinton in expected blue states and suppressed losing margins for her in expected RED states would point to a national win for her.

4.) Speaking of national win: national polling is overwhelmingly pointing to a large Clinton win:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ao6IyAPQ8DmmdEhxaGxWc0s4RU41czd0amxYT1ltT0E#gid=1


There have been 41 national polls, with 122 matchups. Hillary Clinton has won 118 (96.72%) of those matchups.  Go click on the link and see for yourself how many of those margins are double digit margins.


Now, varying from state to state, one GOPer may come closer to Clinton than the others, but she beats them all, consistently. And this data is coming from many various and independent-from-each-other pollsters. Rasmussen, a Right-Leaning outfit, recently put out a poll showing Hillary Clinton with a +13 margin over Jeb Bush nationally.


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Facit: it's Hillary's election to have, if she wants it. If she declares (and I am more than reasonably sure she will declare), then she is the prohibitive front runner both for her party's nomination and also against any and all comers from the GOP.

Factors working against the GOP are the fact that Obama literally cemented Virginia into the Democratic column by winning the state not just once, but twice, against all conventional wisdom. Another factor against the GOP was the wild swing of Cuban-American voters in Florida from the GOP to Obama in 2012. The assumption is that this is due to the ongoing immigration debate. Another factor is the name "Clinton", where both Hillary and former President Bill Clinton are extremely well-known to the American public and in spite of the Lewinski scandal, Bill Clinton is still quite respected among the American public.

If Hillary only wins the states that were common DEM states between Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, then she is already at 290 EV (shown in the Clinton 6 link above). I see a real possibility for Hillary Clinton to go slightly over 400 EV in 2016.

Those are the current polling statistics. Update in September 2014, again in January 2015. 

Full disclosure: I am a Clinton supporter, but were the numbers showing the GOP running away with this race, I would report it with exactly the same veracity.

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