02 December 2013

Refresher on Landslide statistics in US elections

How do you measure a Landslide?


It's been a while and there have been no large landslides in the popular vote since 1984, but some landslides in the EC. However, since 1984, so national electoral landslide statistic has been broken, but one state landslide record has been broken (DC),  so I thought to just review what is out there.


Landslide – highest percentage of the NPV


Rank
Name
Year
NPV winning %
1
Johnson
1964
61.05%
2
Roosevelt, FD
1936
60.80%
3
Nixon
1972
60.67%
4
Harding
1920
60.32%
5
Reagan
1984
58.77%
6
Hoover
1928
58.22%



Landslide – largest % margin of the NPV


Rank
Name
Year
Winning % margin
1
Harding
1920
+26.17%
2
Coolidge
1924
+25.33%
3
Roosevelt, FD
1936
+24.26%
4
Nixon
1972
+23.15%
5
Johnson
1964
+22.58%
6
Roosevelt, T
1904
+18.82%



Landslide, largest actual raw vote margin


Rank
Name
Year
Winning raw votes
1
Nixon
1972
+17,995,488
2
Reagan
1984
+16,878,120
3
Johnson
1964
+15,951,287
4
Roosevelt, FD
1936
+11,070,786*
5
Eisenhower
1956
+9,551,152
6
Obama
2008
+9,549,105

*Just to compare, FDR won with a higher physical vote margin than Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon (1968), Carter, Reagan (1980), Bush, Clinton and Bush Jr, and that in the year 1936!


Landslide – most Electors won


Rank
Name
Year
EV
1
Reagan
1984
525
2
Roosevelt, FD
1936
523
3
Nixon
1972
520
4
Reagan
1980
489
5
Johnson
1964
486
6
Roosevelt, FD
1932
472



Landslide – highest EV %


Rank
Name
Year
EV %
1
Roosevelt, FD
1936
98.49%
2
Reagan
1984
97.58%
3
Nixon
1972
96.65%
4
Reagan
1980
90.90%
5
Johnson
1964
90.30%
6
Roosevelt, FD
1932
88.90%



Largest geographic landslide


Rank
Name
Year
% US Landmass
1
Nixon
1972
99.72%
2
Roosevelt, FD
1936
98.62%
3
Reagan
1984
98.27%




For the complete listing of landslide superlatives for each state, see the earlier posts for superlatives for the GOP, for the DEMs and for IND candidates - which I will soon be updated, going into 2016.

Interesting to note is that both contenders from the hotly contested 2004 race, Bush Jr. and Kerry, set records here, both 3 EV a piece: Utah and DC. Obama then broke the DC record in 2008.

Note: of the GOP superlative record-setters, there are 50 instead of 51, as the GOP has never won DC.

Highest state superlative ever won: Roosevelt / S. Carolina / 1936 / 98.57% !!!


Lastly, about landslides and superlatives, a look at the superlatives for each party and generally to look into the stats for each state to see the dimension of landslides versus “squeakers” for each party, and above all else, exactly when these landslides happened, shows us the era in which that party had the greatest control of certain regions of the country. For instance, in the south, the greatest wins for the DEMS happened up to 1936 (excepting 1964) and not since then. In the NE, the greatest wins for the GOP were in the 1920s as the NE was mostly GOP territory. The GOP has hardly had such wins in the NE since then.


No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.