26 November 2013

Triple-Play, probable "clean-sweep" in Virginia 2013





The Virginia Board of Elections has declared Mark Herring (D) the winner of the extremely close Attorney General race from November 5, 2013, which means that, assuming a recount does not overturn the race, the Democratic Party had a clean-sweep in 2013 GE. The state elections board decision (a bipartisan board) was unanimous.


Here the still "inofficial" tallies, from the VA SOS website. In a couple of months, this link will probably be defunct, when the race is moved to the archives, so for this reason, a screenshot of the race as well:



The margins:

Gov: Terry McAuliffe (D), +56,435 votes, a +2.52% margin.
Lt. Gov: Ralph Northam (D), +232,898 votes, +10.58% margin
AG: Mark Herring (D), +165 votes, +0.007% margin.

Republican Mark Obenshain has 10 days to decided whether to apply for (and pay for) a recount, under Virginia law.

From the WAPO link:

"Obenshain did not immediately call for a recount, but he has set up a transition team, and his campaign issued a statement Monday noting that there have been four statewide elections across the country since 2000 with margins within 300 votes — three of which were reversed by recounts."

Some STATS:

1.) This is the first time in 40 years that the same party as the President's party captured the Gubernatorial mansion in Virginia, breaking a 36 year old paradigm.

2.) Terry McAuliffe's lean +2.52% win is the third leanest win in the VA Gubernatorial since 1953. You can see the calculations for those 16 election cycles HERE.

3.) This is one of maybe two times where the same party won the Gubernatorial and the Lt. Gubernatorial in VA, but the gubernatorial margin was leaner. I am researching this right now.

4.) This also looks like the only time where more votes were cast for AG than for Lt.Governor - but I am researching that as well.

5.) Voter participation was higher than predicted and in terms of raw numbers for the Virginia Gubernatorial cycle, broke the previous raw vote records.

6.) Polling predicted a McAuliffe win, but the end-polling average was 5 points higher than the actual result. What happened? Well, the topline average was just right, but 3% of the voters statewide who were indicating in polling that they would vote for Sarvis (L) changed their minds and shifted their vote for Cuccinelli (R), which moved the bottom-line up and reduced McAuliffe's winning margin. Speaking of Sarvis, his statistic is the best showing for a third party candidate in VA since 1965. Unfortunately, for about another year, we will not know exactly for sure what the margin is - it is likely to be changed again, which means it is likely to go up. Between election night 2012 and the final canvasses, Obama's margin in Virginia increased by 1.2 points. Wait and see.

5.) The county electoral map of the McAuliffe win from November 5th, 2013 is almost identical to the county electoral map of Obama's win in the GE of 2012. The exit polling shows most all of the same values as well, which means that the so-called "Obama coalition", sometimes also called the "Coalition of the ascendent", held, and that in an off year. Black voters were 20% of the electorate, just as they were in Virginia in the 2012 GE. As soon as the final canvasses have been submitted to the congressional archives, I will do a county map compare, but the election of 2013 statistically proves without a shadow of a doubt that the growth in NOVA has shifted VA from being a traditionally "RED" state to being a true battleground state.

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Obama won this traditionally GOP Southern state twice. McAuliffe is a close personal friend of the Clintons. With McAuliffe in the Governor's mansion in VA, Hillary's chances of retaining the Old Dominion for the Democratic party just rose, just as Jeb Bush (R-FL) helped his brother win Florida in 2000 and in 2004.

Should the AG results change again, then I will report them.


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