16 November 2013

2016 GE: Hillary Clinton vs. GOP Field, Part III



This is a continuation of the first Hillary vs. GOP blog posting from March 17, 2013:

http://rosenthalswelt.blogspot.de/2013/03/clinton-vs-gop-field-2016-ge-part-i.html


and here is Part II.


Back in March, 14 states had been polled. As of August 6th, it was 21 states. As of November 15th, 23 states have been polled, there has been extensive national polling and also one specialty poll (Latino Decisions).

The nitty gritty:


Since the beginning of 2013, there have now been 83 polls:


-57 state polls in 22 states (the California poll is FAV/UNFAV only)

-25 national polls
-1 specialty poll

From all of those polls, there have been 209 Hillary vs. (GOP) match-ups.


Hillary Clinton has won 170 of those 209 matchups (81.34%)

GOP candidates have won 34 of those 209 matchups (16.75%)
There have been 9 ties (4.34%)

Here is an exact chart, by state, with the numbers from above broken down:


State No. of polls No. of Matchups Clinton wins GOP wins Ties
National 25 51 50 1 0
AK 2 9 3 6 0
CA 1 0 0 0 0
CO 3 6 3 3 0
FL 5 10 10 0 0
GA 2 8 7 0 1
IA 4 9 8 0 1
KS 1 2 0 2 0
KY 2 4 3 0 1
LA 2 3 4 2 2
ME 1 4 4 0 0
MI 2 6 6 0 0
MN 1 2 2 0 0
MT 2 4 0 3 1
NH 4 10 10 0 0
NY 1 1 1 0 0
NC 2 6 5 1 0
OH 2 7 6 0 1
PA 3 8 8 0 0
TX 3 12 5 7 0
VA 9 21 20 0 1
WV 1 5 0 5 0
WI 3 13 12 0 1
WY 1 5 0 5 0
Latino 1 3 3 0 0
TOTAL state polls 58 158 120 34 9
TOTAL state and national 83 209 170 35 9

All of the poll values are in one EXCEL document, which you can read HERE.

The following pollsters have polled Hillary vs. GOP matchups thus far in 2013:

Quinnipiac
Rasmussen
NBC (Princeton)
PPP (D)
Monmouth
Marist / McClatchy
Gallup
Bloomberg
YouGov
CNN / ORC
ABC / WAPO
The Field Poll
Gravis (R)
WMUR / UNH
Harper (R)
Purple Strategies
Marquette University Poll
Latino Decisions

Thus far, in 2013, PPP (D) has been the most prolific pollster, but Quinnipiac has also put out it's fair share of polls as well.

Here is a map of those states that have been polled, colored by the winner of the majority of the match-ups. In the case of Colorado, it is actually a tie, but the margins lean more to the GOP than toward Clinton, so I have colored that state light RED:



What to make of all of this?

Well, it is still very early, but massive warning signs for the GOP are there on two separate fronts, and they have been there all year:

1.) In states that are usually considered Battleground states, Hillary Clinton is still consistently and comfortably ahead: PA, NH, VA, WI, FL and OH. Go to the Excel-data link to see the margins for yourself. Especially prominent is VA, which has now been polled 9 times, making for 21 matchups, and Hillary has won 20 of them, the 21st is a tie. If those figures hold over the next three years, then those states will not even be competive. I am not making any comparison between pollsters - yet - nor I am I even looking to their historical track record. There are polls from 18 different pollsters thus far in 2013, and they are all telling the same story: Hillary Clinton is demonstrably and measurably ahead of the GOP field.

2.) Looking at the GOP, the story remains the same: Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) comes the closest to Clinton in virtually every state poll where his name is in the mix. Mathematically, he is by far the most competitive potential candidate to go against Hillary in the GE. The problem is the huge disconnect between this statistic and the fact that Christie is not polling well among the GOP electorate that he would need to win the primaries and get the nomination. In other words, the things that make him attractive to independent voters in a race against Clinton are the things he may need to shed-off in order to throw enough red-meat to the ultra-conservative base of the GOP in order to secure the nomination to begin with. Mitt Romney (self-deportation, 47%) had this very same problem. 

GOP candidates like Rand Paul or Ted Cruz have exactly the opposite problem: they will be favored by the extreme Right-Wing of their party, but exactly the things that could get them nominated would be poison-pills for them in a GE.



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There are lots of good side-notes in the second report, from August.

Since then, a poll of West Virginia has come in, showing the GOP ahead of Hillary, although against Cruz, it would be a single point race. Conversely, a poll from Maine has come in, showing Hillary leading most of the GOP at Obama levels from 2008, but trouncing Cruz by 27 points, a margin reminiscent of LBJ from 1964. Again, Christ Christie is the GOP candidate who comes closest to Hillary in this state.

For me, this is an important data point, considering that Bill Clinton easily won West Virginia in both 1992 and 1996, but since George W. Bush, Jr. flipped this state in 2000, it has gone deeper and deeper "red" with each successive presidential cycle. This tells me that while Hillary Clinton is probably the most polled potential presidential candidate ever in an off year directly following a presidential election, and her FAV/UNFAV numbers are the best of any politico out there, there is no guarantee that she will be able to take the so-called "Clinton 6" states, which you can read about here, in a blog-entry called ELECTORAL COLUMNS. However, she is already doing better in Virginia and Florida and Ohio now that Bill ever did. So, it looks to me like a combination of the "Clinton 6" and the "Obama 3" may come into play (all explained in the electoral columns link).

Right now, remember that the DEMS have not gone under 243 EV since 1992 (according to elector allotment based on the 2010 census), with VA, FL, OH, NH and IA already in the mix, right now, already in 2013, were the election to be held next week, I could already call an electoral lock for the former First Lady. Right now, she is already well over 270 EV.

In conclusion, I have been studying the historical Eisenhower landslide of 1952 in great detail. Most do not perhaps know this, but the draft movement for Ike began already in 1950. In fact, both major parties were vying for him to be their nominee. To this date, it still may well be the largest and most universal draft movement for a candidate in our Union's history. But I am already seeing strong signs of a similar draft movement for Hillary Clinton, already in 2013. One could get into a long and involved debate as to whether this is a good or bad thing, but the fact is that it is happening all over the place, and not just on the internet. Hillary is already making all the traditional moves that a candidate in waiting makes. There are even PACs turning down million dollar sums until she announces. Just as Barack Obama's election as our nation's first black president was history making, 2016 could prove to be just as historical a year as 2008 was.

1 comment:

  1. As of today, November 22, 2013, I am opening this blog up for commentary and trying my best to not have to moderate any commentary. Even if you are of a diametrically opposed opinion to what you read on my blog, if you are respectful and present a logical argument, you are extremely welcome here. I really hope that I will not have to moderate commentary, to trust that we are all adults here.

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