30 October 2013

All sorts of polling warning-signs out of Wisconsin for 2014 and 2016. DEM onslaught ahead

The Badger State!




800 RV (616 landline, 184 cell-phone), Moe +/-3.5, conducted 10/21-24/2013. Data pool and MoE are standard values. The polling time window is one day too long for my personal taste.

Partisan identification within the poll:

"Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? "

Democrat: 32.3 (32)
Republican: 27.8 (28)
Independent: 36.6 (37)
other/NP/don't know: 1.9 (2)
refused to answer: 1.3 (1)

Margin: IND + 4.3
Margin D-R: DEM +4.5

Narrowed down to just D vs. R:

"Do you think of yourself closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?"

Closer to DEM: 43.0 (43)
Closer to GOP: 37.2 (37)
Neither/just IND: 15.9 (16)
Don't know:  2.9 (3)
refused: 0.9 (1)

Margin: DEM +4.8


Pres. Barack Obama (D) approval/disapproval () = rounded values:

approval: 48.6 (49)
disapproval: 46.2 (46)

Margin: Obama approval +2.4

Gov. Scott Walker (R) approval/disapproval () = rounded values:

approval: 49.3 (49)
disapproval: 46.7 (47)

Margin: Walker approval +2.6

Pres. Barack Obama (D) favorable/unfavorable () = rounded values:

favorable: 52.1 (52)
unfavorable: 44.7 (45)

Margin: Obama favorable +7.4

Gov. Scott Walker (R) favorable/unfavorable () = rounded values:

favorable: 49.6 (50)
unfavorable: 45.8 (46)

Margin: Walker approval +3.8

Hillary Clinton (D) favorable/unfavorable () = rounded values:

favorable: 55.8 (56)
unfavorable: 35.3 (35)

Margin: Clinton favorable +20.5

TEA PARTY (Tea) favorable/unfavorable () = rounded values:

favorable: 24.1 (24)
unfavorable: 52.9 (53)

Margin: TEA PARTY unfavorable +28.8

(There are also fav/unfav for a number of people, you might want to check out Ted Cruz's values...)


Wisconsin 2014 Gubernatorial:

Scott Walker (R): 47.1 (47)
Mary Burke (D): 44.9 (45)

Margin: Walker +2.2Scott Walker (R): 46.7 (47)
Kathleen Vinehout (D): 44.5 (45)

Margin: Walker +2.2
Scott Walker (R): 48.3 (48)
Peter Barca (D): 41.9 (42)

Margin: Walker +6.4


Approve / Disapprove: Republicans in Congress

Approve: 17.4 (17)
Disapprove:  75.9 (76)

Margin: GOP disapprove +58.5

Approve / Disapprove: Democrats in Congress

Approve: 33.5 (34)
Disapprove:  61.1 (61)

Margin: DEM disapprove +27.6

Support/Oppose: Congress shutting down federal government to stop 
health care law from being put into place?

Support: 19.4 (19)
Oppose: 75.8 (76)
Margin: Oppose +56.4


2014 Generic Congressional Ballot:

DEM: 47.1 (47)
GOP: 41.8 (42)

Margin: DEM +5.3


GOP nomination:

Scott Walker 28.9 (29)
Paul Ryan 24.6 (25)
Marco Rubio 9.3 (9)
Don't know 8.9 (9)
Chris Christie 8.6 (9)
Rand Paul 8.4 (8)
Ted Cruz 4.3 (4)
Someone Else 4.2 (4)
Jeb Bush 2.4 (2)
refused 0.4 (0)

Margin: Walker +4.3
DEM nomination:

Hillary Clinton 64.0 (64)
Elisabeth Warren 10.8 (11)
Joe Biden 10.6 (11)
don't know 9.2 (9)
someone else 2.1 (2)
Andrew Cuomo 1.9 (2)
Martin O'Mally 0.8 (1)
refused: 0.5 (1)

Margin: Clinton +53.2

General Election Matchups: Hillary Clinton vs. GOP field

Hillary Clinton 50.7 (51)

Paul Ryan 43.0 (43)
Margin: Clinton +7.7

Hillary Clinton 50.0 (50)

Chris Christie 40.3 (40)
Margin: Clinton +9.7

Hillary Clinton 53.3 (53)

Scott Walker 40.6 (41)
Margin: Clinton +12.7

Hillary Clinton 55.3 (55)

Chris Christie 33.4 (33)
Margin: Clinton +21.9


There is lots more data at the poll, I am only reporting about 1/2 of it, there is most interesting data about social issues.

But this poll from Marquette shows absolutely brutal numbers for the GOP, esp. looking into 2016. The one really bright ray of light in this is Gov. Scott Walker, who, those his numbers are under 50, is holding a lead over all potential DEM comers.

The GOP nomination numbers refect the good-old "favorite son" effect we see in many states, so it is no surprise that Scott Walker and Paul Ryan are at the top of the pile - for now.

As with every other state in the Union that has been polled until now, DEMS have already long decided that Hillary Clinton is the candidate they want. She is so far out in front, the others don't even have a chance, and as soon as she officially declares her candidacy, the numbers for her potential rivals will probably shrink. I am not making an ideological commentary about her, just expressing the statistical probability that she, as the absolute front-runner, is very likely to stay that way.

The approve/disapprove numbers of the GOP in congress, of the Tea Party and especially of the Republican government shut-down stunt are all unbelievably brutal numbers. If these numbers hold, then the GOP has absolutely no chance at all in the Badger state.

In presidential matchups, Hillary Clinton beats all for potential GOP rivals easily.  Now, this is just one poll, but it is the third poll in this year with such matchups and the second within about 30 days to show these kind of results. If Ryan were to be the candidate, Hillary wins with a slightly larger percentage than President Obama won in 2012. If Chris Christie is the candidate, then Hillary wins with a margin very close to Bill's win in this state in his 1996 landslide. If Scott Walker is the candidate, then Hillary wins with a margin very close to Obama's 2008 landslide margin of +13.90%. But if Ted Cruz is the nominee (and GOPers should be paying close attention to all of his numbers), then Hillary wins against him in a blowout that is very close to LBJ's blowout from 1964.

This all in context of the fact that Wisconsin was one of the three closest states in 2000 and the closest state in 2004 - the GOP was within a hair's breadth of "flipping" this state. But as it stands now, Wisconsin is a 7-for-7 DEM state (Dukakis 1988, Clinton 1992 and 1996, Gore 2000, Kerry 2004, Obama 2008 and 2012) and it very likely to become an 8-for-8 DEM state at the presidential level in 2016. With numbers like this, Wisconsin will not even be on the battleground map in 2016.

Last poll detail: the 2014 generic is looking good for the DEMS, esp. in Wisconsin. 


How well did Marquette do in 2012?


In the main analysis, I actually used the state of Wisconsin as the example state in interpreting the final poll values. So, you can see them right there in the big blog entry.

Marquette, 2012 final poll:

Obama 51
Romney 43
Margin: Obama +8

Actual results:

Obama 52.83 (53)
Romney 45.89 (46)
Margin: Obama +6.94 (+7)

So, Marquette was 1 point off to the LEFT in 2012.

How did Marquette do in 2008?


Obama 51
Romney 43
Margin: Obama +8

Actual results:

Obama 52.83 (53)
Romney 45.89 (46)
Margin: Obama +6.94 (+7)

So, Marquette was 1 point off to the LEFT in 2012.

Rasmussen was off SEVEN points to the RIGHT in 2012, for comparison purposes.

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