24 May 2013

EXACT voter-fraud statistics out of Battleground OHIO

Investigations recommend 135 cases from November election for prosecution for voter fraud, Secretary of State Jon Husted reports | cleveland.com

"COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Secretary of State Jon Husted said today that while an investigation did find some cases of voter fraud from last November’s election, it is not a widespread problem across Ohio.

In January, Husted directed the 88 county boards of election to investigate all claims of voter fraud. The county boards and Husted’s staff found 625 cases of irregularity.

Of those cases, names of 115 people were referred by the county boards of elections to their local prosecutors.
Husted’s staff referred another 20 cases to the Ohio attorney general for possible prosecution. They involve people who appear to have voted in two states during the presidential election."


This means two key things:

-Of the initial 625 cases reported by the various counties in Ohio because of suspected irregularities, if only 115 went on to local prosecutors (that's only 18.4% of 625), then this means that the other 510 cases (81.6% of 625) were cleared and went no further. 

-Put the 115 cases that are now before prosecution together with the 20 possible out-of-state cases, and that means that we have a maximum of 135 cases of voter fraud in Ohio.

Time for the exact math:

number of fraud cases / total votes cast in Ohio in the 2012 presidential election = fraud percentage

135 / 5,590,931 = 0.0024%. That is a little over 2 1000th of one percent! Or, to be exact: 24 10,000ths of one percent.

That's it. Not 2/10ths of a percent, not 2/100ths of a percent, but rather 2/1000th of a percent.

To give this a visual perspective, here is a pie-graph from something completely different:

The three little slivers together that are not purple in this pie-graph represent 0.5% of the total. Now, imagine that tri-color sliver-band being more than 200 times thinner (208.3 times thinner, to be exact), and there you have the 2012 Ohio voter fraud in a pie graph in front of your very eyes. I bet that none of us can even imagine that little sliver being 200 times thinner, now can we? I bet it would be so miniscule that our eyes would not register it at all.

What is missing from the article is a breakdown, by county, of where the alleged fraud cases appeared or for which party the fraud was committed. The article also does not specific if the ballots were presidential ballots, or ballots for lower offices. Amazingly, in every presidential election cycle, there is a small percentage of the population that does NOT vote for president, but for other offices, meaning, they leave the presidential ballot blank. So, there is no way at this time for anyone to say that the voter fraud cases were committed only with votes for Obama or for Romney, but most likely, they were indeed presidential ballots, and the fraud was probably a combination of votes for both parties. But even if we assume that all 135 cases are only votes for Obama and then, were we to even subtract all 135 cases from Obama's total votes, his percentage would not budge a bit. So, the point is moot.

I also wrote "alleged" specifically, for as you see, 510 of the first 625 suspected fraud cases were already found to be clean. However, it is a good bet that the remaining 115 cases are pretty airtight and likely to end up in convictions for voter fraud. As for the 20 other cases, the article does not specify if the complaint about double voting in two states originated in Ohio or in another state, or both.

Now, don't get me wrong. Voter fraud is a crime and it is wrong and it should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. With practically any venture in life, you are going to find cases of wrong-doing. But this voter fraud rate is so unbelievably low that it is, statistically speaking, totally inconsequential. Even if Obama had won Ohio by only +0.1% in 2012, a shift of 0.0024% would still have not changed the outcome of the election. And that is not opinion. THAT IS SIMPLE MATH.

And before anyone would like to gripe about how Ohio counties are doing their work, I will remind that most Ohio counties are in Republican hands and the Secretary of State who just issued this report is a Republican. One can hardly believe a Republican Secretary of State in THE battleground state of all battleground states would let a flawed report be published. So, Husted went on a fishing expedition, one that had a pricetag (tax dollars), and this is what he came up with.

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