17 March 2013

Clinton vs. GOP field, 2016 GE, Part I


What early polling is saying about Hillary Clinton, and once again, this is a massive Republican polling disconnect.

It has now been four months since President Obama was re-elected to a second term and almost two months since he was re-inaugurated. His second-term is now in full swing.

While the public (and the US Congress, the Executive, and now and again, the Judiciary) is/are dualing over fiscal and social matters – and correctly, so, imo, the respective parties are already gearing up their machinery for both the 2014 Congressional Mid-Term elections and the 2016 Presidential election, which will be an open election, meaning, an incumbent president will not be on the ballot.

Let's take a look at Hillary Clinton's resume:

-Hillary Clinton was the First Lady of the great state of Arkansas for 10 years, from 1983 to the end of 1992.

-She was the First Lady of the United States of America for 8 years, from 1993-2001. She was the first FLOTUS in history to actually spearhead such massive legislation (health care reform) for her husband, then President Bill Clinton.

-She was Junior Senator from the State of New York for 8 years, from 2001-2009. She is also the first FLOTUS in history to run for such a high political office and win.

-She was the first serious female candidate for President (in 2008) and came within a hair's breadth of the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.

-She served as Secretary of State of the United States of America under the Obama administration for 4 years, from 2009-2013.

This means that she is the most vetted figure in our current history.

She has a unique and heretofore unsurpassed political portfolio, she has the highest favorablility rating of any political figure out there and without a doubt, the highest name recognition. As a First Lady, Senator, Presidential candidate and Secretary of State, she has proven herself to be resilient and has developed a seemingly thick skin.

For a long time now, it has been the saying that the Democrats „fall in love“, while the Republicans „fall in line“, and it is the Republicans who have a strong tendency to nominate the guy who was number two in the primaries the last time primaries were held. See: Ronald Reagan (who was 2nd in 1976), George H. W. Bush (who was 2nd in 1980), John McCain (who was 2nd in 2000) and Mitt Romney (who was 2nd or 3rd in 2008, depending on how you measure it).

But this time around, it looks very much like the Democrats are going to both „fall in love“ and „fall in line“. Virtually every friend of mine, regardless of political persuasion, is pretty much 100% convinced that Hillary is going to run, and almost all of them think she is unstoppable.

What is early polling saying?

It says that Hillary can turn a number of states that have been „red“ since 2000 back to being „blue“. It says that the only GOP candidate that comes close to Hillary is Chris Christie, but Republicans don't want him and they generally don't like him. Therefore, once again, he have a massive GOP disconnect, I suppose because the extreme right-wing of that party has taken care of most of the party apparatus.

State polling matchups, Clinton vs. GOP field, have now been conducted in: KY, VA, FL, MN, TX, IA, AK, LA, GA, MT, KS, WI, MI and PA (14 states). OH has not yet been polled in Clinton vs. GOP field matchups.

Now, admittedly, this is extremely early for polling and no 100% guarantee can ever be made, but as Nate Silver has pointed out, early polling tends to forecast better than we realize.

Here, in table form, the 2016 polling to date, hyperlinked. More information under the table:

Polling Firm
Date
RV/LV
MoE
Favorability
Dem Nomination
2016 GE
2016 GE
2016 GE
2016 GE








Clinton
Clinton/Biden
Clinton / Rubio
Clinton / Ryan
Clinton / Christie
Clinton / Bush, J.
WAPO/ABC
12/05/12
??
??
66 / 28, +38
--
--
--
--
--




















PPP (D) - Natl
12/06/12


700 RV
+/-3.7
57 / 36, +21
61 / 12
--
--
--
--


















(Clinton / Paul)
PPP (D) - KY
12/12/12
1266 RV
+/-2.8
48 / 42, +6
--
48 / 40, C +8
--
--
47 / 42, C +5




















CNN/ORC
12/30/12
620 A
+/-4.0
--
65 / 26
--
--
--
--




















PPP (D) - Natl
01/10/13
1100 RV
+/-3.0
54 / 39, +15
57 / 16
51 / 37, C +15
53 / 39, C +14
44 / 42, C +2
51 / 37, C +15






































(Clinton / McDonnell)
PPP (D) - VA
01/10/13
602 RV
+/-4.0
--
--
--
--
--
49 / 44, C +5




















PPP (D) - FL
01/17/13
501 RV
+/-4.4
52 / 41, +11
65 / 15
50 / 46, C +4
--
--
49 / 44, C +5




















PPP (D) - MN
01/24/13
1065 RV
+/-3.0
--
59 / 14
50 / 37, C +13
--
44 / 38, C +6
--






































(Clinton / Perry)
PPP (D) - TX
01/31/13
500 RV
+/-4.4
50 / 43, +7
--
46 / 45, C +1


45 / 43, C +2
50 / 42, C +8




















PPP (D) - Natl
02/07/13
800 RV
+/-3.5
49 / 42, +7
58 / 19
49 / 41, C +8
50 / 44, C +6
46 / 42, C +4
49 / 43, C +6








(Biden)


Biden / Rubio
Biden / Ryan
Biden / Christie
Biden / Bush, J.
PPP (D) - Natl
02/07/13
800 RV
+/-3.5
48 / 44, +4
19 / 58
48 / 43, B +5
49 / 45, B +4
44 / 44, TIE
48 / 45, B +4




















PPP (D) - IA
02/07/13
313 DRV
+/-5.5
90 / 5, +85!!
68 / 21
--
--
--
--






































(Clinton / Palin)
PPP (D) - AK
02/08/13
1219 RV
+/-2.9
47 / 45, +2
--
44 / 43, C +1


42 / 43, C +1
53 / 37, C +16






































(Clinton / Jindal)
PPP (D) - LA
02/14/13
603 RV
+/-4.0
46 / 44, +2
--
46 / 43, C +3
46 / 46, TIE
--
48 / 45, C +3






































(Clinton / Gingrich)
PPP (D) - GA
02/20/13
602 RV
+/-4.0
49 / 44, +5
--
49 / 46, C +3
50 / 45, C +5
--
51 / 44, C +7




















PPP (D) - MT
02/21/13
1011 RV
+/-3.1
44 / 48, -4
58 / 5 / 22*
42 / 50, R +8
44 / 51, Ryan +7
--
--










*Schweitzer




















(Schweitzer/ Rubio)
(Schweitzer/ Ryan)
















46 / 46, TIE
45 / 49, Ryan +4
--
--




















PPP (D) - KS
02/27/13
1229 RV
+/-2.8
45 / 46, -1
--
42 / 47, R +5
43 / 50, Ryan +7
--
--






































(Clinton / Walker)
PPP (D) - WI
02/28/13
1799 RV
+/-2.3
56 / 37, +19
--
52 / 38, C +15
51 / 43, C +8
--
54 / 41, C +13




















PPP (D) - MI
03/07/13
702 RV
+/-3.7
--
--
51 / 37, C +14
52 / 41, C +11
--
--




















Quinnipiac
03/07/13








50 / 34, C +16
50 / 38, C +12
45 / 37, C +8


(Natl)










Biden / Rubio
Biden / Ryan
Biden / Christie














45 / 38, B +7
45 / 42, B +3
40 / 43, C +3
--






































(Clinton/Santorum)
PPP (D) - PA
03/13/13
504 RV
+/-4.4
55 / 35, +20
--
52 / 37, C +15
52 / 40, C +12
--
55 / 38, C +17




















Quinnipiac - PA
03/14/13
1116 RV
+/-2.9




54 / 36, C +18
55 / 38, C +17
47 / 42, C +5














Biden / Rubio
Biden / Ryan
Biden / Christie














45 / 41, B +4
44 / 47, Ryan +3
38 / 51, C +13
--

First, we see Hillary absolutely dominating the Democratic field. She is so far ahead of a possible Joe Biden candidacy, I can imagine that Joe is not even going to run.

Second, we see very high favorable ratings for Hillary in all of the national polling and in most all of the state polling. Of the 14 states polled, her favorability/unfavorability numbers are above water in all but KS and MT. In Iowa, her favorability is an astounding number, to say the least.

Third, we see that Hillary could really put the so-called „Clinton 6“ states into play: these are the six states that Bill Clinton won twice (1992 and 1996) that Barack Obama lost twice: WV, KY, TN, AR, LA and MO. Most of these states are connected to Appalachia and all of them are firmly in the so-called „Bible Belt“. If Hillary is doing this well in KY and LA already, and it looks like TX could really be in play in 2016, then logically she is also having sway in WV and most likely ahead in her former home state of AR, where she was First Lady for 10 years. Hillary is also noticeably ahead in GA. She is doing better there than Bill ever did in polling. We also see that in matchups for Hillary in WI, MN and PA – all states in the Midwest, she is winning in crushing landslides, except against Chris Christie.

We see Hillary moderately ahead in both FL and VA. Now, CO (which Obama won twice) and NV (which Obama and Bill Clinton both won twice) have not yet been polled, but if Hillary is doing this well in FL and VA, then it stands to reason that she is also doing well in CO and NV, especially since the FL polling shows her crushing Paul Rubio even in the Latino vote.

This indicates that a Hillary Clinton nomination could mean her maintaining the Democratic electoral column that was common to both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, worth 290 EV right there, plus the „Obama 3“ (FL, VA and CO, which Obama won twice), plus most of the Clinton six (perhaps KY, likely WV, likely AR, possibly TN or LA, very likely MO), plus states like GA, NC, TX.

Clinton could very easily go way over 400 electoral votes. She is losing in KS (and by extension, I assume, also in NE) and she is losing in MT, but she really should be losing there. However, the margins are about a 4th of Bush 43's margins. And the big surprise is how well she is doing in AK.

A Clinton candidacy in 2016 could very well look something like this:



We saw a measurable techtonic shift in the electoral map from 2008, which was confirmed by his re-election in 2012. It looks like Hillary could go way beyond that. I would think that a 40+ state sweep is within her reach. I am not saying this is absolutely going to happen, but I am saying that with Hillary Clinton, this could be possible.

It really looks like the election of 2016 is hers if she wants it. I have been watching polling numbers for a long, long time and I surmise that no potential candidate like Hillary Clinton has had such an easy opening path to winning a general election since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952.

Now, most of these polls are from PPP, which is a Democratic firm. Some may want to poo-poo the current results, but I will remind that PPP was one of the very best pollsters in 2008, 2010 and 2012. It was hands-down the very best pollster in the off year elections of 2011. And PPP got 50 out of 51 „states“ right in 2012. It called a tie in NC, and an end polling result that is a tie is automatically a mis-call, for obvious reasons. Not only that, it has been mathematically proven, now twice in a row (2008, 2012) that there is actually a slight CONSERVATIVE mathematical bias in PPP's composite numbers. So, when PPP puts out this much information, I tend to trust it much more than the faulty data that came from Rasmussen in 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012.


That being said, I would like to see a much richer gene pool of polling data.

I suspect that Hillary will be relatively quiet in 2013 and 2014, and I bet she will announce her candidacy around January 20th, 2015, similar to how she announced in late January of 2007 for the 2008 election. If she does not, I bet good money that she will be drafted.

Clinton vs. GOP field numbers will be updated again in July, 2013.