09 December 2012

Preliminary Totals XIV: 128.5 million, 42 states certified, Obama still at +3.64%

On Friday, 12/06/2012, the NPV total was 128,402,597.

Today, Sunday, 12/09/2012, 03:30 AM EST, the NPV total is 128,473,594.

That is only 70,997 more votes tallied since 12/06 and the percentage margin, though it at first glance looks like Obama +3.65% (when you subtract Romney's percentage from Obama's), it is mathematically still +3.64%. This is because the table takes the actual raw vote margin and divides by the total votes and the program automatically rounds to the nearest one-hundredth of a percentage point. So, though 50.96% - 47.31% looks like +3.65%, 4,682,428 raw votes divided by the current total of 128,473,954 equals +3.6446%, which rounds down to +3.64%. Is this statistic holds, then it would be just like 2008: on paper, Obama's 52.87% minus McCain's 45.60% looks like +7.27%, but mathematically, the raw vote margin divided by that actual total for that year equals +7.26%.

But no worry, this is GUARANTEED to change again, as David Wasserman is estimating 606,099 votes left to come in in New York State, most all of them from the NYC Boroughs.

We are now less than 3 million votes away from the 2008 grand total, but will not come in under 2 million votes short of 2008.

Here the national numbers at a glance:

USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %

2012 65466107 60783679 2224168 128473954 50,96% 47,31% 1,73% 4682428 3,64%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26%
Diff: -4033321 833356 214639 -2985326 -1,91% 1,71% 0,20% -4866677 -3,62%

The real news is that 5 more states have certified since Friday: the three I noted would certify: Washington State, Texas and Colorado. And then New Jersey and North Carolina certified their results on Saturday.

Barry Massey of the AP has also tweeted an article that states that New Mexico has now certified it's results, but there is no verifiable link as yet. David Wasserman asked for a link.

So, with that, the certified state map looks like this:

This leaves us with 9 states left to certify:

California,  Hawaii, Nebraska,  New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia,  West Virginia.

As I wrote in the last prelim totals, it really looks like Hawaii is already certified and I bet that a New Mexico link will appear today or tomorrow. California will certify by 12/13, West Virginia by 12/19, according to their websites. But North Carolina came in ahead of schedule, so who knows, maybe Californa and West Virginia will do the same. No doubt there will be little or any changes in the Pennsylvania or Tennessee results. 

The big story is of course the more than 600,000 votes to come in from New York city, which is guaranteed to pad Obama's margin in that state and will probably bring him to 51.1%-51.2% nationally, when all is said and done.

According to the Virginia website, 4 precincts are STILL out, without any explanation.

But I suspect that within 10 days, the total will be set in stone. And BTW, Dave Leip at uselectionatlas will then find every last write-in total that some states don't publish right away and they will be added to his sight, which is THE authority on election statistics in my book.

Can any of this slightly change? YES.

In 2004. Alabama accidentally overcounted 10,000 Bush votes and then made a correction in May of 2005. So, even after the final canvasses are in, changes can actually be introduced into the congressional record.

I will be publishing actual margin compared to the end polling for a number of states tonight, Monday morning and then on Tuesday evening, if time allows.

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