06 December 2012

Preliminary Totals XIII, 12/06/2012: 128.4 Million, Obama +3.64%, 36 states certified

On 12/04/2012, the NPV total stood at: 128,307,561.

Today, on 12/06/2012, 03:30 AM EST, the NPV total now stands at 128,402,597.

That is only 95,036 more votes than on 12/04, but, just as was the case 12/04 over 12/02 enough to tick Obama's winning percentage margin up +0.02%, from +3.62% to +3.64%:


USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %










2012 65428715 60754175 2219707 128402597 50,96% 47,32% 1,73% 4674540 3,64%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26%
Diff: -4070713 803852 210178 -3056683 -1,91% 1,71% 0,20% -4874565 -3,62%











The complete table to 12/06/2012 is HERE AT GOOGLE DOCS.

That puts us now at 6,996,721, or nearly 7 million more votes than from the first preliminary report on 11/09/2012. Remember, back then, I reminded that between election night and the final canvasses in 2008, 5.7 million votes were added to the total. We have already surpassed that statistic from 2008.

The psychological significance of a +3.64% margin is that it is now more than halfway toward Obama's +7.26% margin from 2008, and with votes from NYC still to come in, this margin is going to rise yet again.

Also, the states are getting their final canvasses in faster than in 2008. As of this morning, 36 states have now certified their totals and made them official:



Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma,  Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming. (On 12/04, it was 34 states, the additions to this list since then are in bold). 37 "states".

The big news of the day on 12/05 was that OHIO certified its results, for which I created an independent thread HERE.

As of this point, it is probably better to keep a list of the 14 remaining states left to certify:
California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington State, West Virginia.

Washington State is supposed to certify sometime today, 12/06/2012. So is TexasSo is Colorado.

In California, the individual counties are supposed to get their final reports in by 12/07/2012, the final statewide canvass will be certified and made publich on 12/14/2012. On California's County Reporting Status page, it shows that 36 of the state's 56 counties have already turned in final reports. 11 counties (Fresno, Kern, Mariposa, Sacramento, San Diego, San Luis Obispo, San Mateo, Santa Barbara, Siskiyu, Solano, Tulare,) are still doing regular updates. 9 counties only did election night reporting and have not updated yet at all (this is designated with "FEMU"). The very biggest counties in California (Los Angeles, Fresno) have pretty much finished finished their counting. The 9 FEMU counties that are left are relatively small counties when you consider the population of California: Kings, Lake, Mendocino, Modoc (all less than 31,000 votes cast per county), Placer (128,000 cast), Santa Cruz (82,000 votes cast), Sonoma (178,000 votes cast), Trinity (5,000 votes cast). I would bet that less than 100,000 votes are left to count in California. Wait and see.
Hawaii, as already stated in a couple of other reports, may have actually already officially released it's results but made no big tra-la-la about it. The Statewide Summary (.pdf) already says "official", it has not been changed since 11/20, plus Hawaii has already provided a large canvass-like STATEMENT OF VOTE document showing the exact vote PER PRECINCT, also broken down this way, which you can get here. Also, according to Hawaii law, they only had until 4:30 PM PST on the last day of the month to officially announce the results. So, I will wait a couple of more days, but it really, really looks like the Hawaii results are already official and certified.
North Carolina is going to certify on December 13th.
The Virginia BOE site still shows that 4 precincts are still out:




According to Virginia's FACT SHEET, they should have already certified the results on November 26th, so apparently, something in these four precincts is holding them up.

In WEST VIRGINIA, the "Post-General Report" will be released on December 19th:



In New York, the 27 day post-general deadline of 12/03 has come and gone, and still no official results. David Wasserman (twitter: @Redistrict) thinks that up to 800,000 ballots in NYC are yet to be counted or reported. That, with the scattering of votes left throughout the country, will probably bring up to about 129.3 million, or 2 million shy of the record-setting election from 2008.

Next Prelim report: 12/07/2012.

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