04 December 2012

Preliminary Totals XII: 128.3 million, Obama +3.62%, 34 states certified

On 12/02/2012, the NPV total stood at 128,181,380.

Today, 12/04/2012, 6:00 AM EST, the NPV total stands at 128,307,531.

That is only 126,151 more votes than on 12/02, but enough to tick Obama's winning percentage margin up from +3.60% to +3.62%:

USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %










2012 65361497 60715853 2230181 128307531 50,94% 47,32% 1,74% 4645644 3,62%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26%
Diff: -4137931 765530 220652 -3151749 -1,93% 1,72% 0,21% -4903461 -3,64%












The complete table for 12/04/2012 is here at GOOGLE DOCS.

That puts us now at 6,901,955 more votes than from the first preliminary report on 11/09/2012. Remember, back then, I reminded that between election night and the final canvasses in 2008, 5.7 million votes were added to the total. We have already surpassed that statistic from 2008.

Also, the states are getting their final canvasses in faster than in 2008. As of this morning, 34 states have now certified their totals and made them official:


Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine,  Maryland, Massachusetts, MichiganMinnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming. (On 12/01-12/02, it was 27 states, the additions to this list since 12/02 are in bold). 34 "states".

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That means that 17 states are still out, but due to certify very, very soon. Most of those 17 states are states that favored Obama. 

I will start with New York State and a couple of tweets from David Wasserman, both of which make sense and with which I agree:



This is some pretty important information. First, yes, the NY BOE is prehistoric and I would expect more efficiency from a BOE from such a big state like NY State. But the real news is that between 800,000-1 million votes are still out, most from NYC, and Obama, without those votes, is already very close to his 2008 percentage margin:



USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %
New York 2012 3995498 2306708 92244 6394450 62,48% 36,07% 1,44% 1688790 26,41%
New York 2008 4804945 2752771 83232 7640948 62,88% 36,03% 1,09% 2052174 26,86%
Diff: -809447 -446063 9012 -1246498 -0,40% 0,05% 0,35% -363384 -0,45%



This can only mean that President Obama did better in an number of Upstate New York "red" counties than he did in 2008. 

Right now, the President is only -0.45% under his massive +26.86% margin from 2008. If this many votes from NYC are still out and Cuomo has extended the absentee deadline because of "Sandy", then Obama is likely to surpass his percentage margin from 2008 and would join New Jersey and Maryland on the "blue"  side in this statistic. But it also means that Obama is also very, very likely to go over 51% and his margin could become very close to +4% over Mitt Romney. This could change the current PARTISAN RANKINGS (here at GOOGLE DOCS), for Obama's margin in the Empire State would have to jump from the current +26.41% to above +27.46% in order to displace Rhode Island as number 4 in the partisan rankings. And if Wasserman's estimates are correct, then Obama could jump to +30 in NY! Obama won NYC as a whole with an average of 79.29% and a margin average of +59.23 in 2008:



NEW YORK DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar % NEW YORK % of State PV
NYC 5 Boroughs 2074159 524787 16824 2615770 79,29% 20,06% 0,64% 1549372 59,23% NYC 5 Boroughs 34,23%
2004 1828015 587534 22095 2437644 74,99% 24,10% 0,91% 1240481 50,89% 2004 32,98%
diff: 246144 -62747 -5271 178126 4,30% -4,04% -0,26% 308891 8,34% diff: 1,25%


If there are just 800,000 votes left out of NYC and Obama wins them with a +59 margin, ala 2008, then he would add 472,000 votes to his statewide margin in NYC, bringing his margin to ca 2,160,000 out of then 7,149,000, which would be a +30 margin!

And another 800,000 votes from NY State alone, plus probably 200,000 from elsewhere, will mean that we will land only about 2 million votes shy of 2008.

Votes are still coming in from New Jersey and Obama's margin continues to rise.

On the West Coast:

Hawaii is probably already certified. It's results are listed as "official" as of November 20. Wait and see.

Both Oregon and Washington State will certify their results on December 6th.

In California, all counties must get their final canvasses in by December 7th and the results will be certified in 10 days from today, on 12/14.

Of the "battleground" states from 2012 that are not yet certified:

In Ohio, according to the schedule provided by the SOS website, 11/27 was the deadline for all counties to get their final canvasses, including the counts of provisional ballots, in. The SOS website is still showing the numbers from election night with a rolling balkon at the top saying that the numbers will be updated when all the counties have reported in. What is holding some Ohio counties up, I have absolutely no idea. Ohio really should have certified its results by now. David Wasserman has been keeping track of the county websites for Ohio, and Obama is still at +2.95%,with maybe 14 small counties yet to certify.

The numbers in Virginia have not budged over the last 2 weeks or more, so I suspect that a canvass report is about to come out. Ditto for North Carolina, where the numbers have not moved, but were apparently overreported to the AP, for the SOS website shows lower numbers than the AP numbers. The BOE will meet on December 13th in NC and I suspect they will then certify the results.

Tennessee and Texas put out Final Canvasses around December 8 in 2008, so I suspect they will do it this week as well.

Colorado and Missouri are still trickling numbers in - relatively small changes.

Here most of the table:


USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %










2012 65361497 60715853 2230181 128307531 50,94% 47,32% 1,74% 4645644 3,62%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26%
Diff: -4137931 765530 220652 -3151749 -1,93% 1,72% 0,21% -4903461 -3,64%




















Alabama 2012 * 795696 1255925 22717 2074338 38,36% 60,55% 1,10% 460229 22,19%
Alabama 2008 813479 1266546 19794 2099819 38,74% 60,32% 0,94% 453067 21,58%
Diff: -17783 -10621 2923 -25481 -0,38% 0,23% 0,15% 7162 0,61%










Alaska 2012 * 122640 164676 13179 300495 40,81% 54,80% 4,39% 42036 13,99%
Alaska 2008 123594 193841 8762 326197 37,89% 59,42% 2,69% 70247 21,54%
Diff: -954 -29165 4417 -25702 2,92% -4,62% 1,70% -28211 -7,55%










Arizona 2012 * 1025232 1233654 47673 2306559 44,45% 53,48% 2,07% 208422 9,04%
Arizona 2008 1034707 1230111 39020 2303838 44,91% 53,39% 1,69% 195404 8,48%
Diff: -9475 3543 8653 2721 -0,46% 0,09% 0,37% 13018 0,55%










Arkansas 2012 * 394409 647744 27315 1069468 36,88% 60,57% 2,55% 253335 23,69%
Arkansas 2008 422310 638017 26290 1086617 38,86% 58,72% 2,42% 215707 19,85%
Diff: -27901 9727 1025 -17149 -1,99% 1,85% 0,13% 37628 3,84%










California 2012 7821369 4825049 343145 12989563 60,21% 37,15% 2,64% 2996320 23,07%
California 2008 8274473 5011781 291011 13577265 60,94% 36,91% 2,14% 3262692 24,03%
Diff: -453104 -186732 52134 -587702 -0,73% 0,23% 0,50% -266372 -0,96%










Colorado 2012 1322713 1184774 61143 2568630 51,49% 46,12% 2,38% 137939 5,37%
Colorado 2008 1288633 1073629 39200 2401462 53,66% 44,71% 1,63% 215004 8,95%
Diff: 34080 111145 21943 167168 -2,17% 1,42% 0,75% -77065 -3,58%










Connecticut 2012 *?? 905083 634892 18139 1558114 58,09% 40,75% 1,16% 270191 17,34%
Connecticut 2008 997773 629428 19592 1646793 60,59% 38,22% 1,19% 368345 22,37%
Diff: -92690 5464 -1453 -88679 -2,50% 2,53% -0,03% -98154 -5,03%










Delaware 2012 * 242584 165484 5822 413890 58,61% 39,98% 1,41% 77100 18,63%
Delaware 2008 255459 152374 4783 412616 61,91% 36,93% 1,16% 103085 24,98%
Diff: -12875 13110 1039 1274 -3,30% 3,05% 0,25% -25985 -6,36%










DC 2012 267070 21381 5313 293764 90,91% 7,28% 1,81% 245689 83,63%
DC 2008 245800 17367 2686 265853 92,46% 6,53% 1,01% 228433 85,92%
Diff: 21270 4014 2627 27911 -1,54% 0,75% 0,80% 17256 -2,29%










Florida 2012 * 4237756 4163447 72976 8474179 50,01% 49,13% 0,86% 74309 0,88%
Florida 2008 4282367 4046219 83275 8411861 50,91% 48,10% 0,99% 236148 2,81%
Diff: -44611 117228 -10299 62318 -0,90% 1,03% -0,13% -161839 -1,93%










Georgia 2012 * 1773827 2078688 47535 3900050 45,48% 53,30% 1,22% 304861 7,82%
Georgia 2008 1844123 2048759 39276 3932158 46,90% 52,10% 1,00% 204636 5,20%
Diff: -70296 29929 8259 -32108 -1,42% 1,20% 0,22% 100225 2,61%










Hawaii 2012 306658 121015 7024 434697 70,55% 27,84% 1,62% 185643 42,71%
Hawaii 2008 325871 120566 7131 453568 71,85% 26,58% 1,57% 205305 45,26%
Diff: -19213 449 -107 -18871 -1,30% 1,26% 0,04% -19662 -2,56%










Idaho 2012 * 212787 420911 18576 652274 32,62% 64,53% 2,85% 208124 31,91%
Idaho 2008 236440 403012 19002 658454 35,91% 61,21% 2,89% 166572 25,30%
Diff: -23653 17899 -426 -6180 -3,29% 3,32% -0,04% 41552 6,61%










Illinois 2012 3019512 2135216 87286 5242014 57,60% 40,73% 1,67% 884296 16,87%
Illinois 2008 3419348 2031179 77828 5528355 61,85% 36,74% 1,41% 1388169 25,11%
Diff: -399836 104037 9458 -286341 -4,25% 3,99% 0,26% -503873 -8,24%










Indiana 2012 1152887 1420543 51104 2624534 43,93% 54,13% 1,95% 267656 10,20%
Indiana 2008 1374039 1345648 35903 2755590 49,86% 48,83% 1,30% 28391 1,03%
Diff: -221152 74895 15201 -131056 -5,94% 5,29% 0,64% -296047 11,23%










Iowa 2012 * 822544 730617 29019 1582180 51,99% 46,18% 1,83% 91927 5,81%
Iowa 2008 828940 682379 25804 1537123 53,93% 44,39% 1,68% 146561 9,53%
Diff: -6396 48238 3215 45057 -1,94% 1,78% 0,16% -54634 -3,72%










Kansas 2012 * 440726 692634 26611 1159971 37,99% 59,71% 2,29% 251908 21,72%
Kansas 2008 514765 699655 23996 1238416 41,57% 56,50% 1,94% 184890 14,93%
Diff: -74039 -7021 2615 -78445 -3,57% 3,22% 0,36% 67018 6,79%










Kentucky 2012 * 679370 1087190 30652 1797212 37,80% 60,49% 1,71% 407820 22,69%
Kentucky 2008 751985 1048462 27140 1827587 41,15% 57,37% 1,49% 296477 16,22%
Diff: -72615 38728 3512 -30375 -3,35% 3,12% 0,22% 111343 6,47%










Louisiana 2012 * 809141 1152262 32662 1994065 40,58% 57,78% 1,64% 343121 17,21%
Louisiana 2008 782989 1148275 29497 1960761 39,93% 58,56% 1,50% 365286 18,63%
Diff: 26152 3987 3165 33304 0,64% -0,78% 0,13% -22165 -1,42%










Maine 2012 * 401306 292276 19598 713180 56,27% 40,98% 2,75% 109030 15,29%
Maine 2008 421923 295273 13967 731163 57,71% 40,38% 1,91% 126650 17,32%
Diff: -20617 -2997 5631 -17983 -1,44% 0,60% 0,84% -17620 -2,03%










Maryland 2012 * 1677844 971869 57614 2707327 61,97% 35,90% 2,13% 705975 26,08%
Maryland 2008 1629467 959862 42267 2631596 61,92% 36,47% 1,61% 669605 25,44%
Diff: 48377 12007 15347 75731 0,05% -0,58% 0,52% 36370 0,63%










Massachusetts 2012 * 1921290 1188314 58163 3167767 60,65% 37,51% 1,84% 732976 23,14%
Massachusetts 2008 1904098 1108854 68117 3081069 61,80% 35,99% 2,21% 795244 25,81%
Diff: 17192 79460 -9954 86698 -1,15% 1,52% -0,37% -62268 -2,67%










Michigan 2012 * 2564569 2115256 51136 4730961 54,21% 44,71% 1,08% 449313 9,50%
Michigan 2008 2872579 2048639 88976 5010194 57,33% 40,89% 1,78% 823940 16,45%
Diff: -308010 66617 -37840 -279233 -3,13% 3,82% -0,70% -374627 -6,95%










Minnesota 2012 * 1546178 1321469 70157 2937804 52,63% 44,98% 2,39% 224709 7,65%
Minnesota 2008 1573354 1275409 61606 2910369 54,06% 43,82% 2,12% 297945 10,24%
Diff: -27176 46060 8551 27435 -1,43% 1,16% 0,27% -73236 -2,59%










Mississippi 2012 * 562949 710746 11889 1285584 43,79% 55,29% 0,92% 147797 11,50%
Mississippi 2008 554662 724597 10606 1289865 43,00% 56,18% 0,82% 169935 13,17%
Diff: 8287 -13851 1283 -4281 0,79% -0,89% 0,10% -22138 -1,68%










Missouri 2012 1223796 1482440 51087 2757323 44,38% 53,76% 1,85% 258644 9,38%
Missouri 2008 1441911 1445814 41224 2928949 49,23% 49,36% 1,41% 3903 0,13%
Diff: -218115 36626 9863 -171626 -4,85% 4,40% 0,45% 254741 9,25%










Montana 2012 * 201839 267928 14165 483932 41,71% 55,36% 2,93% 66089 13,66%
Montana 2008 232159 243882 16709 492750 47,11% 49,49% 3,39% 11723 2,38%
Diff: -30320 24046 -2544 -8818 -5,41% 5,87% -0,46% 54366 11,28%










Nebraska 2012 301687 475256 15017 791960 38,09% 60,01% 1,90% 173569 21,92%
Nebraska 2008 333319 452979 14983 801281 41,60% 56,53% 1,87% 119660 14,93%
Diff: -31632 22277 34 -9321 -3,50% 3,48% 0,03% 53909 6,98%










Nevada 2012 * 531373 463567 19978 1014918 52,36% 45,68% 1,97% 67806 6,68%
Nevada 2008 533736 412827 21285 967848 55,15% 42,65% 2,20% 120909 12,49%
Diff: -2363 50740 -1307 47070 -2,79% 3,02% -0,23% -53103 -5,81%










New Hampshire 2012 * 369561 329918 11493 710972 51,98% 46,40% 1,62% 39643 5,58%
New Hampshire 2008 384826 316534 9610 710970 54,13% 44,52% 1,35% 68292 9,61%
Diff: -15265 13384 1883 2 -2,15% 1,88% 0,26% -28649 -4,03%










New Jersey 2012 2106030 1467848 44860 3618738 58,20% 40,56% 1,24% 638182 17,64%
New Jersey 2008 2215422 1613207 48778 3877407 57,14% 41,61% 1,26% 602215 15,53%
Diff: -109392 -145359 -3918 -258669 1,06% -1,04% -0,02% 35967 2,10%










New Mexico 2012 415255 335644 32633 783532 53,00% 42,84% 4,16% 79611 10,16%
New Mexico 2008 472422 346832 10904 830158 56,91% 41,78% 1,31% 125590 15,13%
Diff: -57167 -11188 21729 -46626 -3,91% 1,06% 2,85% -45979 -4,97%










New York 2012 3995498 2306708 92244 6394450 62,48% 36,07% 1,44% 1688790 26,41%
New York 2008 4804945 2752771 83232 7640948 62,88% 36,03% 1,09% 2052174 26,86%
Diff: -809447 -446063 9012 -1246498 -0,40% 0,05% 0,35% -363384 -0,45%










North Carolina 2012 2178391 2270395 56586 4505372 48,35% 50,39% 1,26% 92004 2,04%
North Carolina 2008 2142651 2128474 39664 4310789 49,70% 49,38% 0,92% 14177 0,33%
Diff: 35740 141921 16922 194583 -1,35% 1,02% 0,34% -106181 2,37%










North Dakota 2012 * 124966 188320 9646 322932 38,70% 58,32% 2,99% 63354 19,62%
North Dakota 2008 141403 168887 7448 317738 44,50% 53,15% 2,34% 27484 8,65%
Diff: -16437 19433 2198 5194 -5,81% 5,16% 0,64% 35870 10,97%










Ohio 2012 2823137 2658469 99538 5581144 50,58% 47,63% 1,78% 164668 2,95%
Ohio 2008 2940044 2677820 103951 5721815 51,38% 46,80% 1,82% 262224 4,58%
Diff: -116907 -19351 -4413 -140671 -0,80% 0,83% -0,03% -97556 -1,63%










Oklahoma 2012 * 443547 891325 0 1334872 33,23% 66,77% 0,00% 447778 33,54%
Oklahoma 2008 502496 960165 0 1462661 34,35% 65,65% 0,00% 457669 31,29%
Diff: -58949 -68840 0 -127789 -1,13% 1,13% 0,00% -9891 2,25%










Oregon 2012 970488 754172 63454 1788114 54,27% 42,18% 3,55% 216316 12,10%
Oregon 2008 1037291 738475 52098 1827864 56,75% 40,40% 2,85% 298816 16,35%
Diff: -66803 15697 11356 -39750 -2,47% 1,78% 0,70% -82500 -4,25%










Pennsylvania 2012 2990240 2680416 71329 5741985 52,08% 46,68% 1,24% 309824 5,40%
Pennsylvania 2008 3276363 2655885 83228 6015476 54,47% 44,15% 1,38% 620478 10,31%
Diff: -286123 24531 -11899 -273491 -2,39% 2,53% -0,14% -310654 -4,92%










Rhode Island 2012 * 279677 157204 9168 446049 62,70% 35,24% 2,06% 122473 27,46%
Rhode Island 2008 296571 165391 9804 471766 62,86% 35,06% 2,08% 131180 27,81%
Diff: -16894 -8187 -636 -25717 -0,16% 0,19% -0,02% -8707 -0,35%










South Carolina 2012 * 865941 1071645 26532 1964118 44,09% 54,56% 1,35% 205704 10,47%
South Carolina 2008 862449 1034896 23624 1920969 44,90% 53,87% 1,23% 172447 8,98%
Diff: 3492 36749 2908 43149 -0,81% 0,69% 0,12% 33257 1,50%










South Dakota 2012 * 145039 210610 8166 363815 39,87% 57,89% 2,24% 65571 18,02%
South Dakota 2008 170924 203054 7997 381975 44,75% 53,16% 2,09% 32130 8,41%
Diff: -25885 7556 169 -18160 -4,88% 4,73% 0,15% 33441 9,61%










Tennessee 2012 959439 1460238 36834 2456511 39,06% 59,44% 1,50% 500799 20,39%
Tennessee 2008 1087437 1479178 35367 2601982 41,79% 56,85% 1,36% 391741 15,06%
Diff: -127998 -18940 1467 -145471 -2,74% 2,60% 0,14% 109058 5,33%










Texas 2012 3305242 4566172 116378 7987792 41,38% 57,16% 1,46% 1260930 15,79%
Texas 2008 3528633 4479328 79247 8087208 43,63% 55,39% 0,98% 950695 11,76%
Diff: -223391 86844 37131 -99416 -2,25% 1,78% 0,48% 310235 4,03%










Utah 2012 * 251813 740600 25027 1017440 24,75% 72,79% 2,46% 488787 48,04%
Utah 2008 327670 596030 33781 957481 34,22% 62,25% 3,53% 268360 28,03%
Diff: -75857 144570 -8754 59959 -9,47% 10,54% -1,07% 220427 20,01%










Vermont 2012 * 199239 92698 7353 299290 66,57% 30,97% 2,46% 106541 35,60%
Vermont 2008 219262 98974 6810 325046 67,46% 30,45% 2,10% 120288 37,01%
Diff: -20023 -22206 543 -41686 -0,89% 0,52% 0,36% 2183 -1,41%










Virginia 2012 1971820 1822522 60147 3854489 51,16% 47,28% 1,56% 149298 3,87%
Virginia 2008 1959532 1725005 38723 3723260 52,63% 46,33% 1,04% 234527 6,30%
Diff: 12288 97517 21424 131229 -1,47% 0,95% 0,52% -85229 -2,43%










Washington 2012 1755396 1290670 79450 3125516 56,16% 41,29% 2,54% 464726 14,87%
Washington 2008 1750848 1229216 73152 3053216 57,34% 40,26% 2,40% 521632 17,08%
Diff: 4548 61454 6298 72300 -1,18% 1,03% 0,15% -56906 -2,22%










West Virginia 2012 235672 413128 14352 663152 35,54% 62,30% 2,16% 177456 26,76%
West Virginia 2008 303857 397466 13545 714868 42,51% 55,60% 1,89% 93609 13,09%
Diff: -68185 15662 807 -51716 -6,97% 6,70% 0,27% 83847 13,66%










Wisconsin 2012 * 1620985 1410966 39483 3071434 52,78% 45,94% 1,29% 210019 6,84%
Wisconsin 2008 1677211 1262393 43813 2983417 56,22% 42,31% 1,47% 414818 13,90%
Diff: -56226 148573 -4330 88017 -3,44% 3,62% -0,18% -204799 -7,07%










Wyoming 2012 * 69286 170962 8813 249061 27,82% 68,64% 3,54% 101676 40,82%
Wyoming 2008 82868 164958 5023 252849 32,77% 65,24% 1,99% 82090 32,47%
Diff: -13582 6004 3790 -3788 -4,95% 3,40% 1,55% 19586 8,36%


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