30 December 2012

GE 2012: NY almost completely in: Obama 51.06%, +3.85%, 129 million votes cast, 5 million vote margin over Romney

In the semi-final vote count from 12/24, I mentioned an extrapolation of New York State that I did way back on 12/02, based on the votes still out to count. The jist of the extrapolation was that New York State, if this were to happen, would experience a major jump in margin for President Obama and would likely leapfrog over Rhode Island and assume place 4 in the partisan rankings for 2012.

Well, it happened, in fact just shortly after I published on 12/24. More than 300,000 more votes were tallied by counties, most of them in the New York City area, where Obama picked up most of those votes, and his margin has jumped from +26.25% on 12/24 to +28.15% now:

DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %
New York 2012 4464680 2480342 104572 7049594 63,33% 35,18% 1,48% 1984338 28,15%
New York 2008 4804945 2752771 83232 7640948 62,88% 36,03% 1,09% 2052174 26,86%
Diff: -340265 -272429 21340 -591354 0,45% -0,84% 0,39% -67836 1,29%

New York State now joins  Alaska, Lousiana, Maryland, Mississippi and New Jersey in the column of six states where Obama's statistic vis-a-vis 2008 actually improved, despite winning nationally by a lesser margin than in 2008.

Those numbers from New York, which are not yet finished, but close to it, I bet, now put Obama at 51.06% nationally:

USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar % % of NPV growth rate

2012 65892366 60926869 2235051 129054286 51,06% 47,21% 1,73% 4965497 3,85% 100,00%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26% 100,00%
Diff: -3607062 976546 225522 -2404994 -1,81% 1,61% 0,20% -4583608 -3,42% 0,00% -1,83%

This means that we have now crossed over 129 million votes in 2012, 2.4 million votes shy of 2008, which is a negative growth rate of 1.87%. Obama's margin over Romney is now at 4.96 million, moving toward 4.97 million, and his national margin percentage, which was +2.52% on November 9th, is now +3.85% at the end of the year, a jump of 1.33% in margin. When you add the raw vote margins from California and New York State together, you get: +4,998,665. So, in a certain way, you could say that the Obama and Romney margins from the other 48 states plus DC pretty much cancelled each other out, and Obama reaped his 5 million vote margin from these two bulwark Democratic states.

Actually, a 4 point race is not very close at all. The national pollsters really should have been able to do better than this.  When the final canvass is in and these statistics are locked down forever (chuckle), then I will start to dissect the polling results compared to the actual results, state by state and nationally. But I can tell you now, the Report Card for Rasmussen and Gallup, to name a few, looks pretty damned terrible..

Here are the complete documents, in Google Docs.

GEEXCEL TABLE 12/30/2012


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