29 November 2012

Preliminary Totals X: 127.9 million, Obama +3.53%, 19 states certified, the "Gary Johnson Factor"


32 states left to certify the results of 2012.


On 11/28/2012, AM, EST, the total stood at 127,654,582.

Today, 11/29/2012, the total now stands at 127,866,733.

That is "only" 212,151 votes more than yesterday, 11/28/2012, but it was enough to move Obama's percentage up from +3.48% to now +3.53%.

That is also 6,460,857 more votes than the original count which I started on 11/09/2012.
Since 11/09/2012, Obama's margin has risen +1.01%. It was +2.52% on 11/09, it is now +3.53%.
Though I did not input exact totals from election night on election night, it is safe to assume that his margin was less on that night, so I bet he has jumped at least +1.1% total.

In 2008, between election night and the final canvasses, his margin jumped +1.2%, so we are seeing a similar pattern here.

Here the national numbers, at a glance:

USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %










2012 65089941 60570700 2206092 127866733 50,90% 47,37% 1,73% 4519241 3,53%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26%
Diff: -4409487 620377 196563 -3592547 -1,96% 1,77% 0,20% -5029864 -3,73%












The complete table is here at GOOGLE DOCS.

There is a very strong possibility that the President will break the 51% mark. Statistically, that is not so important. Psychologically, for the nation, though, I think it is quite important. This re-election of our 44th president is turning out to be not nearly as close as the national polls were saying. Indeed, the state polls, showing a clear -and LARGE - electoral college edge for the President, were more accurate than the national numbers.

A number of people are already comparing the numbers to the end polling results. I think this is unwise to do until the final canvasses are in, for you will be amazed at how things can still change in many states. Speaking of final canvasses, 19 states have now certified their results (it was 15 states yesterday), which means that the numbers in the large table should not change (in a perfect world, at least):

Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut*, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming. (On 11/26, it was 13 states, the two additions to this list are in bold).

Here is a map of the states that have certified their results:





The state of Connecticut has an asterisk (*) next to it because both David Wasserman from the Cook Report and I are wondering if the "official" CT results might change again, since the newly released numbers are under the numbers reported to and by the AP, but there was indeed an article about the certification in the Norwich Bulletin. It is paragraph 6 that is causing us to wonder. Until that is figured out, the sudden change in CT's statistic also changes the PARTISAN RANKINGS.

So, where are the votes still out?

Obviously, they are out in the states not colored in green, but some states will still have a lot more to report than others.

In Ohio, were are now down to only 14 of 88 counties that have not yet added the provisional ballot results to their counts and then certified them. The OHIO SOS website says it will only update when ALL of the counties have certified, but David Wasserman has been keeping track from the county websites, which is why President Obama is now up to +2.95% in the Buckeye State. However, David also thinks that Obama will not get to +3 in Ohio, because those counties that are relatively small but deep red counties. I retweeted his tweet about this.

In New York State, there are counties that are not yet 100% in, and they are all deep, deep, deep blue counties and big ones at that (table link), from in and around New York City: 

Kings County, 98.3% in
New York County, 97.3% in
Queens County, 99.5% in
Bronx County, 99.9%, in
Westchester County, 80.9% in

You can see from the table link above yourself that Obama is winning these counties by between 2:1 and 5:1. Right now, there are 1.3 million less votes cast in New York State in 2012 than were cast in 2008. We have often seen counties all over the country that are officially listed as "100.00%" in, that still update their totals, so I would bet that at least 500,000 votes are still out in New York state, which is going to be to President Obama's advantage. His current margin is +26.52%, just under his 2008 margin, so it is conceivable that he will match or even slightly surpass his 2008 statistic when all is said and done.

In California, we are now ca. 835,000 votes under the total from 2012 and there are still votes to be reported, but the updates are indeed slowing down and CA is supposed to put out a major update, probably an certified update, on 12/03. For those who want to complain about how slowly some results are coming in, in comparison to 2008, California is running about 2 weeks faster than it did then.

Illinois is notorious for being somewhat secretive about getting its results out, which is just totally crazy, for the county websites for the state do a pretty good job of getting their results out. In 2008, about 600,000 IL votes were added between election night and the final canvasses. I have absolutely no idea how IL is counting this year. For my way of thinking, this state puts out one of the absolutely worst SOS and election websites in the entire country. That beings said, Illinois is only ca. 300,000 votes under its 2008 statistic, so I bet that not too many more votes will be reported.

All said and done, it now looks like we will land between 128-129 million votes cast, pretty soon all the counting excitement will be over with and the final canvasses will be in and this stuff will then be set in stone for posterity.


The GARY JOHNSON factor:

I received some emails asking how Gary Johnson did. Here is a table of 15 states where Gary Johnson had some of his best statistics. Not surprisingly, he got the highest percentage of the PV in his home state of New Mexico, but as you can see, he was not a spoiler at all in this election, not even once.  I also calculated what percentage of the total "other" vote his percentage was, and the results may surprise you. Take a look at Indiana on the table, for instance:




State
current margin
3rd party %
swing over '08
Johnson %
Johnson % of 3rd party %
spoiler?
NM
O +10.16%
4.16%
+2.85%
3.54%
85.01%
NO
MT
R +13.66
2.93%
-0.46%
2.91%
99.32%
NO
AK
R +22.24%
4.39%
+1.70%
2.46%
56.04%
NO
WY
R +40.82%
3.54%
+1.55%
2.14%
60.45%
NO
IN
R+ 10.20%
1.95%
+0.64%
1.91%
98.06%
NO
ME
O +15.09%
3.17%
+1.26%
1.89%
59.62%
NO
ND
R +19.62%
2.99%
+0.64%
1.62%
54.18%
NO
CO
O +5.37%
2.38%
+0.75%
1.38%
57.98%
NO
OR
O +12.10%
3.55%
+0.70%
1.35%
38.09%
NO
NC
R +2.04%
1.26%
+0.34%
0.99%
78.57%
NO
VA
O +3.87%
1.56%
+0.52%
0.81%
51.92%
NO
DC
O +83.63%
1.81%
+0.80%
0.71%
39.23%
NO
FL
O +0.88%
0.86%
-0.13%
0.53%
61.63%
NO
OH
O +2.95%
1.77%
-0.04%
in flux
in flux
NO
ND
R +19.62%
2.99%
+0.64%
1.62%
54.18%
NO



Until all the provisionals are in in Ohio, I cannot give a reliable statistic for the Gary Johnson vote. We will have to wait and see how well he did. But if Indiana is a guide, I bet that Johson got more thant the lion's share of the 3rd party vote in Ohio.

The entire table was linked at the top of the report, but here are the 50 states as well, without the extra schnick-schnack:

USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %










2012 65089941 60570700 2206092 127866733 50,90% 47,37% 1,73% 4519241 3,53%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26%
Diff: -4409487 620377 196563 -3592547 -1,96% 1,77% 0,20% -5029864 -3,73%




















Alabama 2012 794610 1254433 18660 2067703 38,43% 60,67% 0,90% 459823 22,24%
Alabama 2008 813479 1266546 19794 2099819 38,74% 60,32% 0,94% 453067 21,58%
Diff: -18869 -12113 -1134 -32116 -0,31% 0,35% -0,04% 6756 0,66%










Alaska 2012 122640 164676 13179 300495 40,81% 54,80% 4,39% 42036 13,99%
Alaska 2008 123594 193841 8762 326197 37,89% 59,42% 2,69% 70247 21,54%
Diff: -954 -29165 4417 -25702 2,92% -4,62% 1,70% -28211 -7,55%










Arizona 2012 1025232 1233654 47673 2306559 44,45% 53,48% 2,07% 208422 9,04%
Arizona 2008 1034707 1230111 39020 2303838 44,91% 53,39% 1,69% 195404 8,48%
Diff: -9475 3543 8653 2721 -0,46% 0,09% 0,37% 13018 0,55%










Arkansas 2012 * 394409 647744 27315 1069468 36,88% 60,57% 2,55% 253335 23,69%
Arkansas 2008 422310 638017 26290 1086617 38,86% 58,72% 2,42% 215707 19,85%
Diff: -27901 9727 1025 -17149 -1,99% 1,85% 0,13% 37628 3,84%










California 2012 7646283 4760853 334288 12741424 60,01% 37,37% 2,62% 2885430 22,65%
California 2008 8274473 5011781 291011 13577265 60,94% 36,91% 2,14% 3262692 24,03%
Diff: -628190 -250928 43277 -835841 -0,93% 0,45% 0,48% -377262 -1,38%










Colorado 2012 1322427 1184523 61128 2568078 51,49% 46,12% 2,38% 137904 5,37%
Colorado 2008 1288633 1073629 39200 2401462 53,66% 44,71% 1,63% 215004 8,95%
Diff: 33794 110894 21928 166616 -2,17% 1,42% 0,75% -77100 -3,58%










Connecticut 2012 *?? 905083 634892 18139 1558114 58,09% 40,75% 1,16% 270191 17,34%
Connecticut 2008 997773 629428 19592 1646793 60,59% 38,22% 1,19% 368345 22,37%
Diff: -92690 5464 -1453 -88679 -2,50% 2,53% -0,03% -98154 -5,03%










Delaware 2012 * 242584 165484 5822 413890 58,61% 39,98% 1,41% 77100 18,63%
Delaware 2008 255459 152374 4783 412616 61,91% 36,93% 1,16% 103085 24,98%
Diff: -12875 13110 1039 1274 -3,30% 3,05% 0,25% -25985 -6,36%










DC 2012 267070 21381 5313 293764 90,91% 7,28% 1,81% 245689 83,63%
DC 2008 245800 17367 2686 265853 92,46% 6,53% 1,01% 228433 85,92%
Diff: 21270 4014 2627 27911 -1,54% 0,75% 0,80% 17256 -2,29%










Florida 2012 * 4237756 4163447 72976 8474179 50,01% 49,13% 0,86% 74309 0,88%
Florida 2008 4282367 4046219 83275 8411861 50,91% 48,10% 0,99% 236148 2,81%
Diff: -44611 117228 -10299 62318 -0,90% 1,03% -0,13% -161839 -1,93%










Georgia 2012 * 1773827 2078688 47535 3900050 45,48% 53,30% 1,22% 304861 7,82%
Georgia 2008 1844123 2048759 39276 3932158 46,90% 52,10% 1,00% 204636 5,20%
Diff: -70296 29929 8259 -32108 -1,42% 1,20% 0,22% 100225 2,61%










Hawaii 2012 306658 121015 7024 434697 70,55% 27,84% 1,62% 185643 42,71%
Hawaii 2008 325871 120566 7131 453568 71,85% 26,58% 1,57% 205305 45,26%
Diff: -19213 449 -107 -18871 -1,30% 1,26% 0,04% -19662 -2,56%










Idaho 2012 * 212787 420911 18576 652274 32,62% 64,53% 2,85% 208124 31,91%
Idaho 2008 236440 403012 19002 658454 35,91% 61,21% 2,89% 166572 25,30%
Diff: -23653 17899 -426 -6180 -3,29% 3,32% -0,04% 41552 6,61%










Illinois 2012 3017743 2133743 86429 5237915 57,61% 40,74% 1,65% 884000 16,88%
Illinois 2008 3419348 2031179 77828 5528355 61,85% 36,74% 1,41% 1388169 25,11%
Diff: -401605 102564 8601 -290440 -4,24% 4,00% 0,24% -504169 -8,23%










Indiana 2012 1152887 1420543 51104 2624534 43,93% 54,13% 1,95% 267656 10,20%
Indiana 2008 1374039 1345648 35903 2755590 49,86% 48,83% 1,30% 28391 1,03%
Diff: -221152 74895 15201 -131056 -5,94% 5,29% 0,64% -296047 11,23%










Iowa 2012 822523 730593 29018 1582134 51,99% 46,18% 1,83% 91930 5,81%
Iowa 2008 828940 682379 25804 1537123 53,93% 44,39% 1,68% 146561 9,53%
Diff: -6417 48214 3214 45011 -1,94% 1,78% 0,16% -54631 -3,72%










Kansas 2012 430750 679738 24607 1135095 37,95% 59,88% 2,17% 248988 21,94%
Kansas 2008 514765 699655 23996 1238416 41,57% 56,50% 1,94% 184890 14,93%
Diff: -84015 -19917 611 -103321 -3,62% 3,39% 0,23% 64098 7,01%










Kentucky 2012 * 679370 1087190 30652 1797212 37,80% 60,49% 1,71% 407820 22,69%
Kentucky 2008 751985 1048462 27140 1827587 41,15% 57,37% 1,49% 296477 16,22%
Diff: -72615 38728 3512 -30375 -3,35% 3,12% 0,22% 111343 6,47%










Louisiana 2012 * 809141 1152262 32662 1994065 40,58% 57,78% 1,64% 343121 17,21%
Louisiana 2008 782989 1148275 29497 1960761 39,93% 58,56% 1,50% 365286 18,63%
Diff: 26152 3987 3165 33304 0,64% -0,78% 0,13% -22165 -1,42%










Maine 2012 398043 290678 22547 711268 55,96% 40,87% 3,17% 107365 15,09%
Maine 2008 421923 295273 13967 731163 57,71% 40,38% 1,91% 126650 17,32%
Diff: -23880 -4595 8580 -19895 -1,74% 0,48% 1,26% -19285 -2,23%










Maryland 2012 * 1677844 971869 57614 2707327 61,97% 35,90% 2,13% 705975 26,08%
Maryland 2008 1629467 959862 42267 2631596 61,92% 36,47% 1,61% 669605 25,44%
Diff: 48377 12007 15347 75731 0,05% -0,58% 0,52% 36370 0,63%










Massachusetts 2012 1906319 1178510 51645 3136474 60,78% 37,57% 1,65% 727809 23,20%
Massachusetts 2008 1904098 1108854 68117 3081069 61,80% 35,99% 2,21% 795244 25,81%
Diff: 2221 69656 -16472 55405 -1,02% 1,59% -0,56% -67435 -2,61%










Michigan 2012 * 2564569 2115256 51136 4730961 54,21% 44,71% 1,08% 449313 9,50%
Michigan 2008 2872579 2048639 88976 5010194 57,33% 40,89% 1,78% 823940 16,45%
Diff: -308010 66617 -37840 -279233 -3,13% 3,82% -0,70% -374627 -6,95%










Minnesota 2012 1546178 1321469 70157 2937804 52,63% 44,98% 2,39% 224709 7,65%
Minnesota 2008 1573354 1275409 61606 2910369 54,06% 43,82% 2,12% 297945 10,24%
Diff: -27176 46060 8551 27435 -1,43% 1,16% 0,27% -73236 -2,59%










Mississippi 2012 558349 707532 10473 1276354 43,75% 55,43% 0,82% 149183 11,69%
Mississippi 2008 554662 724597 10606 1289865 43,00% 56,18% 0,82% 169935 13,17%
Diff: 3687 -17065 -133 -13511 0,74% -0,74% 0,00% -20752 -1,49%










Missouri 2012 1223096 1482427 51086 2756609 44,37% 53,78% 1,85% 259331 9,41%
Missouri 2008 1441911 1445814 41224 2928949 49,23% 49,36% 1,41% 3903 0,13%
Diff: -218815 36613 9862 -172340 -4,86% 4,41% 0,45% 255428 9,27%










Montana 2012 201839 267928 14165 483932 41,71% 55,36% 2,93% 66089 13,66%
Montana 2008 232159 243882 16709 492750 47,11% 49,49% 3,39% 11723 2,38%
Diff: -30320 24046 -2544 -8818 -5,41% 5,87% -0,46% 54366 11,28%










Nebraska 2012 301687 475256 15017 791960 38,09% 60,01% 1,90% 173569 21,92%
Nebraska 2008 333319 452979 14983 801281 41,60% 56,53% 1,87% 119660 14,93%
Diff: -31632 22277 34 -9321 -3,50% 3,48% 0,03% 53909 6,98%










NE-02 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
2008 138809 135439 3561 277809 49,97% 48,75% 1,28% 3370 1,21%
Diff: -138809 -135439 -3561 -277809 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3370 #DIV/0!










Nevada 2012 531373 463567 19978 1014918 52,36% 45,68% 1,97% 67806 6,68%
Nevada 2008 533736 412827 21285 967848 55,15% 42,65% 2,20% 120909 12,49%
Diff: -2363 50740 -1307 47070 -2,79% 3,02% -0,23% -53103 -5,81%










New Hampshire 2012 * 369561 329918 11493 710972 51,98% 46,40% 1,62% 39643 5,58%
New Hampshire 2008 384826 316534 9610 710970 54,13% 44,52% 1,35% 68292 9,61%
Diff: -15265 13384 1883 2 -2,15% 1,88% 0,26% -28649 -4,03%










New Jersey 2012 2086643 1458820 44695 3590158 58,12% 40,63% 1,24% 627823 17,49%
New Jersey 2008 2215422 1613207 48778 3877407 57,14% 41,61% 1,26% 602215 15,53%
Diff: -128779 -154387 -4083 -287249 0,98% -0,97% -0,01% 25608 1,96%










New Mexico 2012 415145 335594 32616 783355 53,00% 42,84% 4,16% 79551 10,16%
New Mexico 2008 472422 346832 10904 830158 56,91% 41,78% 1,31% 125590 15,13%
Diff: -57277 -11238 21712 -46803 -3,91% 1,06% 2,85% -46039 -4,97%










New York 2012 3962513 2282311 90766 6335590 62,54% 36,02% 1,43% 1680202 26,52%
New York 2008 4804945 2752771 83232 7640948 62,88% 36,03% 1,09% 2052174 26,86%
Diff: -842432 -470460 7534 -1305358 -0,34% 0,00% 0,34% -371972 -0,34%










North Carolina 2012 2178391 2270395 56586 4505372 48,35% 50,39% 1,26% 92004 2,04%
North Carolina 2008 2142651 2128474 39664 4310789 49,70% 49,38% 0,92% 14177 0,33%
Diff: 35740 141921 16922 194583 -1,35% 1,02% 0,34% -106181 2,37%










North Dakota 2012 * 124966 188320 9646 322932 38,70% 58,32% 2,99% 63354 19,62%
North Dakota 2008 141403 168887 7448 317738 44,50% 53,15% 2,34% 27484 8,65%
Diff: -16437 19433 2198 5194 -5,81% 5,16% 0,64% 35870 10,97%










Ohio 2012 2819454 2655117 98894 5573465 50,59% 47,64% 1,77% 164337 2,95%
Ohio 2008 2940044 2677820 103951 5721815 51,38% 46,80% 1,82% 262224 4,58%
Diff: -120590 -22703 -5057 -148350 -0,80% 0,84% -0,04% -97887 -1,63%










Oklahoma 2012 * 443547 891325 0 1334872 33,23% 66,77% 0,00% 447778 33,54%
Oklahoma 2008 502496 960165 0 1462661 34,35% 65,65% 0,00% 457669 31,29%
Diff: -58949 -68840 0 -127789 -1,13% 1,13% 0,00% -9891 2,25%










Oregon 2012 970343 754095 63442 1787880 54,27% 42,18% 3,55% 216248 12,10%
Oregon 2008 1037291 738475 52098 1827864 56,75% 40,40% 2,85% 298816 16,35%
Diff: -66948 15620 11344 -39984 -2,48% 1,78% 0,70% -82568 -4,25%










Pennsylvania 2012 2989152 2678916 71300 5739368 52,08% 46,68% 1,24% 310236 5,41%
Pennsylvania 2008 3276363 2655885 83228 6015476 54,47% 44,15% 1,38% 620478 10,31%
Diff: -287211 23031 -11928 -276108 -2,38% 2,53% -0,14% -310242 -4,91%










Rhode Island 2012 * 279677 157204 9168 446049 62,70% 35,24% 2,06% 122473 27,46%
Rhode Island 2008 296571 165391 9804 471766 62,86% 35,06% 2,08% 131180 27,81%
Diff: -16894 -8187 -636 -25717 -0,16% 0,19% -0,02% -8707 -0,35%










South Carolina 2012 * 865941 1071645 26532 1964118 44,09% 54,56% 1,35% 205704 10,47%
South Carolina 2008 862449 1034896 23624 1920969 44,90% 53,87% 1,23% 172447 8,98%
Diff: 3492 36749 2908 43149 -0,81% 0,69% 0,12% 33257 1,50%










South Dakota 2012 * 145039 210610 8166 363815 39,87% 57,89% 2,24% 65571 18,02%
South Dakota 2008 170924 203054 7997 381975 44,75% 53,16% 2,09% 32130 8,41%
Diff: -25885 7556 169 -18160 -4,88% 4,73% 0,15% 33441 9,61%










Tennessee 2012 959054 1459965 35451 2454470 39,07% 59,48% 1,44% 500911 20,41%
Tennessee 2008 1087437 1479178 35367 2601982 41,79% 56,85% 1,36% 391741 15,06%
Diff: -128383 -19213 84 -147512 -2,72% 2,63% 0,09% 109170 5,35%










Texas 2012 3305242 4566172 116378 7987792 41,38% 57,16% 1,46% 1260930 15,79%
Texas 2008 3528633 4479328 79247 8087208 43,63% 55,39% 0,98% 950695 11,76%
Diff: -223391 86844 37131 -99416 -2,25% 1,78% 0,48% 310235 4,03%










Utah 2012 250161 732415 28038 1010614 24,75% 72,47% 2,77% 482254 47,72%
Utah 2008 327670 596030 33781 957481 34,22% 62,25% 3,53% 268360 28,03%
Diff: -77509 136385 -5743 53133 -9,47% 10,22% -0,75% 213894 19,69%










Vermont 2012 * 199239 92698 7353 299290 66,57% 30,97% 2,46% 106541 35,60%
Vermont 2008 219262 98974 6810 325046 67,46% 30,45% 2,10% 120288 37,01%
Diff: -20023 -22206 543 -41686 -0,89% 0,52% 0,36% 2183 -1,41%










Virginia 2012 1971820 1822522 60147 3854489 51,16% 47,28% 1,56% 149298 3,87%
Virginia 2008 1959532 1725005 38723 3723260 52,63% 46,33% 1,04% 234527 6,30%
Diff: 12288 97517 21424 131229 -1,47% 0,95% 0,52% -85229 -2,43%










Washington 2012 1755396 1290670 79450 3125516 56,16% 41,29% 2,54% 464726 14,87%
Washington 2008 1750848 1229216 73152 3053216 57,34% 40,26% 2,40% 521632 17,08%
Diff: 4548 61454 6298 72300 -1,18% 1,03% 0,15% -56906 -2,22%










West Virginia 2012 235612 413560 14357 663529 35,51% 62,33% 2,16% 177948 26,82%
West Virginia 2008 303857 397466 13545 714868 42,51% 55,60% 1,89% 93609 13,09%
Diff: -68245 16094 812 -51339 -7,00% 6,73% 0,27% 84339 13,72%










Wisconsin 2012 1620682 1407204 36883 3064769 52,88% 45,92% 1,20% 213478 6,97%
Wisconsin 2008 1677211 1262393 43813 2983417 56,22% 42,31% 1,47% 414818 13,90%
Diff: -56529 144811 -6930 81352 -3,34% 3,60% -0,27% -201340 -6,94%










Wyoming 2012 * 69286 170962 8813 249061 27,82% 68,64% 3,54% 101676 40,82%
Wyoming 2008 82868 164958 5023 252849 32,77% 65,24% 1,99% 82090 32,47%
Diff: -13582 6004 3790 -3788 -4,95% 3,40% 1,55% 19586 8,36%



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