26 November 2012

Preliminary Totals VIII: 127 million votes, Obama +3.35, THE BREADBASKET

(Updated 11/26/2012, 7 PM EST)


Just four days ago, on 11/22, the National Total Vote for 2012 stood at 126,274,972.

Today, on 11/26/2012, the National Total vote stands at 127,085,164 and has grown again by 810,192 votes. The National Total Vote has now grown 5,679,288 since the first preliminary report on 11/09.

In that report, I wrote:

"In 2008, between my first national vote update (11/12/2008) and the End Analysis of the GE 2008 (01/04/2009), more than 3.3 million votes were added to Obama's total, almost 2.1 million votes were added to McCain's total and 300,000 more votes were added to the minor candidates' totals, which shifted the total from one week after the election (125,655,127) another 5.7 MILLION votes upward (to 131,370,177). This means that this current total...of 121,405,876 votes is absolutely certain to shift upward. Right now, that total is slightly less than the Bush re-election total from 2004, but surely when all the end-canvasses are in, it will be somewhere between the totals from 2004 and 2008, making it the second highest raw vote total in our history, after 2008. Furthermore, Obama's victory in 2012, though lean, is still a larger victory than George W. Bush's +2.46% victory in 2004, and a much larger victory in the electoral college."


And exactly that has happened:

USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar % USA











2012 64590445 60332482 2162237 127085164 50,82% 47,47% 1,70% 4257963 3,35% 2012
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26% 2008
Diff: -4908983 382159 152708 -4374116 -2,04% 1,87% 0,17% -5291142 -3,91% Diff:












We are now 4.5 million votes shy of the record setting election of 2008 (after election night, as of 11/09, we were 10 million votes shy...). I first thought we might make it only to 126 million, which we have now surpassed. It is indeed quite possible to make it to 128 million votes, based on what is still out to count.

Remember: in 2008, between election night and the final canvasses, 5.7 million votes were added to the national total. Now, in 2012, between election night and today, just 20 days later, 5.6 million have already been added. So, it looks like the late vote count will actually exceed 2008.

As of today, 13 states have now certified their results, which means that there should not be any more changes:

Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming.

In the table, those states are highighted in the left-most column in GOLD.

After the complete table, the new partisan rankings (some things have changed) and some interesting comments about the states in the breadbasket (KS, NE, SD, ND) and the rest of the Midwest.

USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %










2012 64590445 60332482 2162237 127085164 50,82% 47,47% 1,70% 4257963 3,35%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26%
Diff: -4908983 382159 152708 -4374116 -2,04% 1,87% 0,17% -5291142 -3,91%




















Alabama 2012 794550 1254362 18658 2067570 38,43% 60,67% 0,90% 459812 22,24%
Alabama 2008 813479 1266546 19794 2099819 38,74% 60,32% 0,94% 453067 21,58%
Diff: -18929 -12184 -1136 -32249 -0,31% 0,35% -0,04% 6745 0,66%










Alaska 2012 122533 164599 13249 300381 40,79% 54,80% 4,41% 42066 14,00%
Alaska 2008 123594 193841 8762 326197 37,89% 59,42% 2,69% 70247 21,54%
Diff: -1061 -29242 4487 -25816 2,90% -4,63% 1,72% -28181 -7,53%










Arizona 2012 1025232 1233654 47673 2306559 44,45% 53,48% 2,07% 208422 9,04%
Arizona 2008 1034707 1230111 39020 2303838 44,91% 53,39% 1,69% 195404 8,48%
Diff: -9475 3543 8653 2721 -0,46% 0,09% 0,37% 13018 0,55%










Arkansas 2012 * 394409 647744 27315 1069468 36,88% 60,57% 2,55% 253335 23,69%
Arkansas 2008 422310 638017 26290 1086617 38,86% 58,72% 2,42% 215707 19,85%
Diff: -27901 9727 1025 -17149 -1,99% 1,85% 0,13% 37628 3,84%










California 2012 7465913 4697734 326590 12490237 59,77% 37,61% 2,61% 2768179 22,16%
California 2008 8274473 5011781 291011 13577265 60,94% 36,91% 2,14% 3262692 24,03%
Diff: -808560 -314047 35579 -1087028 -1,17% 0,70% 0,47% -494513 -1,87%










Colorado 2012 1317536 1179674 60662 2557872 51,51% 46,12% 2,37% 137862 5,39%
Colorado 2008 1288633 1073629 39200 2401462 53,66% 44,71% 1,63% 215004 8,95%
Diff: 28903 106045 21462 156410 -2,15% 1,41% 0,74% -77142 -3,56%










Connecticut 2012 912531 631432 18220 1562183 58,41% 40,42% 1,17% 281099 17,99%
Connecticut 2008 997773 629428 19592 1646793 60,59% 38,22% 1,19% 368345 22,37%
Diff: -85242 2004 -1372 -84610 -2,18% 2,20% -0,02% -87246 -4,37%










Delaware 2012 * 242584 165484 5822 413890 58,61% 39,98% 1,41% 77100 18,63%
Delaware 2008 255459 152374 4783 412616 61,91% 36,93% 1,16% 103085 24,98%
Diff: -12875 13110 1039 1274 -3,30% 3,05% 0,25% -25985 -6,36%










DC 2012 267070 21381 5313 293764 90,91% 7,28% 1,81% 245689 83,63%
DC 2008 245800 17367 2686 265853 92,46% 6,53% 1,01% 228433 85,92%
Diff: 21270 4014 2627 27911 -1,54% 0,75% 0,80% 17256 -2,29%










Florida 2012 * 4237756 4163447 72976 8474179 50,01% 49,13% 0,86% 74309 0,88%
Florida 2008 4282367 4046219 83275 8411861 50,91% 48,10% 0,99% 236148 2,81%
Diff: -44611 117228 -10299 62318 -0,90% 1,03% -0,13% -161839 -1,93%










Georgia 2012 * 1773827 2078688 45324 3897839 45,51% 53,33% 1,16% 304861 7,82%
Georgia 2008 1844123 2048759 39276 3932158 46,90% 52,10% 1,00% 204636 5,20%
Diff: -70296 29929 6048 -34319 -1,39% 1,23% 0,16% 100225 2,62%










Hawaii 2012 306658 121015 7024 434697 70,55% 27,84% 1,62% 185643 42,71%
Hawaii 2008 325871 120566 7131 453568 71,85% 26,58% 1,57% 205305 45,26%
Diff: -19213 449 -107 -18871 -1,30% 1,26% 0,04% -19662 -2,56%










Idaho 2012 * 212787 420911 18576 652274 32,62% 64,53% 2,85% 208124 31,91%
Idaho 2008 236440 403012 19002 658454 35,91% 61,21% 2,89% 166572 25,30%
Diff: -23653 17899 -426 -6180 -3,29% 3,32% -0,04% 41552 6,61%










Illinois 2012 3014871 2131460 86253 5232584 57,62% 40,73% 1,65% 883411 16,88%
Illinois 2008 3419348 2031179 77828 5528355 61,85% 36,74% 1,41% 1388169 25,11%
Diff: -404477 100281 8425 -295771 -4,23% 3,99% 0,24% -504758 -8,23%










Indiana 2012 1152887 1420543 51104 2624534 43,93% 54,13% 1,95% 267656 10,20%
Indiana 2008 1374039 1345648 35903 2755590 49,86% 48,83% 1,30% 28391 1,03%
Diff: -221152 74895 15201 -131056 -5,94% 5,29% 0,64% -296047 11,23%










Iowa 2012 822523 730593 29018 1582134 51,99% 46,18% 1,83% 91930 5,81%
Iowa 2008 828940 682379 25804 1537123 53,93% 44,39% 1,68% 146561 9,53%
Diff: -6417 48214 3214 45011 -1,94% 1,78% 0,16% -54631 -3,72%










Kansas 2012 430750 679738 24607 1135095 37,95% 59,88% 2,17% 248988 21,94%
Kansas 2008 514765 699655 23996 1238416 41,57% 56,50% 1,94% 184890 14,93%
Diff: -84015 -19917 611 -103321 -3,62% 3,39% 0,23% 64098 7,01%










Kentucky 2012 679364 1087150 30273 1796787 37,81% 60,51% 1,68% 407786 22,70%
Kentucky 2008 751985 1048462 27140 1827587 41,15% 57,37% 1,49% 296477 16,22%
Diff: -72621 38688 3133 -30800 -3,34% 3,14% 0,20% 111309 6,47%










Louisiana 2012 * 809141 1152262 32662 1994065 40,58% 57,78% 1,64% 343121 17,21%
Louisiana 2008 782989 1148275 29497 1960761 39,93% 58,56% 1,50% 365286 18,63%
Diff: 26152 3987 3165 33304 0,64% -0,78% 0,13% -22165 -1,42%










Maine 2012 398043 290678 22547 711268 55,96% 40,87% 3,17% 107365 15,09%
Maine 2008 421923 295273 13967 731163 57,71% 40,38% 1,91% 126650 17,32%
Diff: -23880 -4595 8580 -19895 -1,74% 0,48% 1,26% -19285 -2,23%










Maryland 2012 1677844 971869 57614 2707327 61,97% 35,90% 2,13% 705975 26,08%
Maryland 2008 1629467 959862 42267 2631596 61,92% 36,47% 1,61% 669605 25,44%
Diff: 48377 12007 15347 75731 0,05% -0,58% 0,52% 36370 0,63%










Massachusetts 2012 1901900 1178055 50340 3130295 60,76% 37,63% 1,61% 723845 23,12%
Massachusetts 2008 1904098 1108854 68117 3081069 61,80% 35,99% 2,21% 795244 25,81%
Diff: -2198 69201 -17777 49226 -1,04% 1,64% -0,60% -71399 -2,69%










Michigan 2012 2561911 2112673 43144 4717728 54,30% 44,78% 0,91% 449238 9,52%
Michigan 2008 2872579 2048639 88976 5010194 57,33% 40,89% 1,78% 823940 16,45%
Diff: -310668 64034 -45832 -292466 -3,03% 3,89% -0,86% -374702 -6,92%










Minnesota 2012 1546178 1321469 70157 2937804 52,63% 44,98% 2,39% 224709 7,65%
Minnesota 2008 1573354 1275409 61606 2910369 54,06% 43,82% 2,12% 297945 10,24%
Diff: -27176 46060 8551 27435 -1,43% 1,16% 0,27% -73236 -2,59%










Mississippi 2012 558349 707532 10473 1276354 43,75% 55,43% 0,82% 149183 11,69%
Mississippi 2008 554662 724597 10606 1289865 43,00% 56,18% 0,82% 169935 13,17%
Diff: 3687 -17065 -133 -13511 0,74% -0,74% 0,00% -20752 -1,49%










Missouri 2012 1223080 1482387 51085 2756552 44,37% 53,78% 1,85% 259307 9,41%
Missouri 2008 1441911 1445814 41224 2928949 49,23% 49,36% 1,41% 3903 0,13%
Diff: -218831 36573 9861 -172397 -4,86% 4,41% 0,45% 255404 9,27%










Montana 2012 201839 267928 14165 483932 41,71% 55,36% 2,93% 66089 13,66%
Montana 2008 232159 243882 16709 492750 47,11% 49,49% 3,39% 11723 2,38%
Diff: -30320 24046 -2544 -8818 -5,41% 5,87% -0,46% 54366 11,28%










Nebraska 2012 301687 475256 14165 791108 38,13% 60,07% 1,79% 173569 21,94%
Nebraska 2008 333319 452979 14983 801281 41,60% 56,53% 1,87% 119660 14,93%
Diff: -31632 22277 -818 -10173 -3,46% 3,54% -0,08% 53909 7,01%










NE-02 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
2008 138809 135439 3561 277809 49,97% 48,75% 1,28% 3370 1,21%
Diff: -138809 -135439 -3561 -277809 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3370 #DIV/0!










Nevada 2012 531373 463567 19890 1014830 52,36% 45,68% 1,96% 67806 6,68%
Nevada 2008 533736 412827 21285 967848 55,15% 42,65% 2,20% 120909 12,49%
Diff: -2363 50740 -1395 46982 -2,79% 3,03% -0,24% -53103 -5,81%










New Hampshire 2012 * 369553 329910 11452 710915 51,98% 46,41% 1,61% 39643 5,58%
New Hampshire 2008 384826 316534 9610 710970 54,13% 44,52% 1,35% 68292 9,61%
Diff: -15273 13376 1842 -55 -2,14% 1,88% 0,26% -28649 -4,03%










New Jersey 2012 2005232 1418543 41954 3465729 57,86% 40,93% 1,21% 586689 16,93%
New Jersey 2008 2215422 1613207 48778 3877407 57,14% 41,61% 1,26% 602215 15,53%
Diff: -210190 -194664 -6824 -411678 0,72% -0,67% -0,05% -15526 1,40%










New Mexico 2012 415140 335593 32617 783350 53,00% 42,84% 4,16% 79547 10,15%
New Mexico 2008 472422 346832 10904 830158 56,91% 41,78% 1,31% 125590 15,13%
Diff: -57282 -11239 21713 -46808 -3,91% 1,06% 2,85% -46043 -4,97%










New York 2012 3873650 2224963 84401 6183014 62,65% 35,99% 1,37% 1648687 26,66%
New York 2008 4804945 2752771 83232 7640948 62,88% 36,03% 1,09% 2052174 26,86%
Diff: -931295 -527808 1169 -1457934 -0,23% -0,04% 0,28% -403487 -0,19%










North Carolina 2012 2178391 2270395 56586 4505372 48,35% 50,39% 1,26% 92004 2,04%
North Carolina 2008 2142651 2128474 39664 4310789 49,70% 49,38% 0,92% 14177 0,33%
Diff: 35740 141921 16922 194583 -1,35% 1,02% 0,34% -106181 2,37%










North Dakota 2012 * 124966 188320 9646 322932 38,70% 58,32% 2,99% 63354 19,62%
North Dakota 2008 141403 168887 7448 317738 44,50% 53,15% 2,34% 27484 8,65%
Diff: -16437 19433 2198 5194 -5,81% 5,16% 0,64% 35870 10,97%










Ohio 2012 2707935 2604094 89909 5401938 50,13% 48,21% 1,66% 103841 1,92%
Ohio 2008 2940044 2677820 103951 5721815 51,38% 46,80% 1,82% 262224 4,58%
Diff: -232109 -73726 -14042 -319877 -1,25% 1,41% -0,15% -158383 -2,66%










Oklahoma 2012 * 443547 891325 0 1334872 33,23% 66,77% 0,00% 447778 33,54%
Oklahoma 2008 502496 960165 0 1462661 34,35% 65,65% 0,00% 457669 31,29%
Diff: -58949 -68840 0 -127789 -1,13% 1,13% 0,00% -9891 2,25%










Oregon 2012 963569 751055 62525 1777149 54,22% 42,26% 3,52% 212514 11,96%
Oregon 2008 1037291 738475 52098 1827864 56,75% 40,40% 2,85% 298816 16,35%
Diff: -73722 12580 10427 -50715 -2,53% 1,86% 0,67% -86302 -4,39%










Pennsylvania 2012 2981660 2673398 71068 5726126 52,07% 46,69% 1,24% 308262 5,38%
Pennsylvania 2008 3276363 2655885 83228 6015476 54,47% 44,15% 1,38% 620478 10,31%
Diff: -294703 17513 -12160 -289350 -2,39% 2,54% -0,14% -312216 -4,93%










Rhode Island 2012 279677 157204 9168 446049 62,70% 35,24% 2,06% 122473 27,46%
Rhode Island 2008 296571 165391 9804 471766 62,86% 35,06% 2,08% 131180 27,81%
Diff: -16894 -8187 -636 -25717 -0,16% 0,19% -0,02% -8707 -0,35%










South Carolina 2012 * 865941 1071645 26532 1964118 44,09% 54,56% 1,35% 205704 10,47%
South Carolina 2008 862449 1034896 23624 1920969 44,90% 53,87% 1,23% 172447 8,98%
Diff: 3492 36749 2908 43149 -0,81% 0,69% 0,12% 33257 1,50%










South Dakota 2012 * 145039 210610 8166 363815 39,87% 57,89% 2,24% 65571 18,02%
South Dakota 2008 170924 203054 7997 381975 44,75% 53,16% 2,09% 32130 8,41%
Diff: -25885 7556 169 -18160 -4,88% 4,73% 0,15% 33441 9,61%










Tennessee 2012 959054 1459965 35451 2454470 39,07% 59,48% 1,44% 500911 20,41%
Tennessee 2008 1087437 1479178 35367 2601982 41,79% 56,85% 1,36% 391741 15,06%
Diff: -128383 -19213 84 -147512 -2,72% 2,63% 0,09% 109170 5,35%










Texas 2012 3305242 4566172 116378 7987792 41,38% 57,16% 1,46% 1260930 15,79%
Texas 2008 3528633 4479328 79247 8087208 43,63% 55,39% 0,98% 950695 11,76%
Diff: -223391 86844 37131 -99416 -2,25% 1,78% 0,48% 310235 4,03%










Utah 2012 250161 732415 28038 1010614 24,75% 72,47% 2,77% 482254 47,72%
Utah 2008 327670 596030 33781 957481 34,22% 62,25% 3,53% 268360 28,03%
Diff: -77509 136385 -5743 53133 -9,47% 10,22% -0,75% 213894 19,69%










Vermont 2012 * 199239 92698 7353 299290 66,57% 30,97% 2,46% 106541 35,60%
Vermont 2008 219262 98974 6810 325046 67,46% 30,45% 2,10% 120288 37,01%
Diff: -20023 -22206 543 -41686 -0,89% 0,52% 0,36% 2183 -1,41%










Virginia 2012 1971820 1822520 60147 3854487 51,16% 47,28% 1,56% 149300 3,87%
Virginia 2008 1959532 1725005 38723 3723260 52,63% 46,33% 1,04% 234527 6,30%
Diff: 12288 97515 21424 131227 -1,47% 0,95% 0,52% -85227 -2,43%










Washington 2012 1747342 1286258 78905 3112505 56,14% 41,33% 2,54% 461084 14,81%
Washington 2008 1750848 1229216 73152 3053216 57,34% 40,26% 2,40% 521632 17,08%
Diff: -3506 57042 5753 59289 -1,20% 1,07% 0,14% -60548 -2,27%










West Virginia 2012 234925 412406 14312 661643 35,51% 62,33% 2,16% 177481 26,82%
West Virginia 2008 303857 397466 13545 714868 42,51% 55,60% 1,89% 93609 13,09%
Diff: -68932 14940 767 -53225 -7,00% 6,73% 0,27% 83872 13,73%










Wisconsin 2012 1613950 1408746 33917 3056613 52,80% 46,09% 1,11% 205204 6,71%
Wisconsin 2008 1677211 1262393 43813 2983417 56,22% 42,31% 1,47% 414818 13,90%
Diff: -63261 146353 -9896 73196 -3,42% 3,77% -0,36% -209614 -7,19%










Wyoming 2012 * 69286 170962 8813 249061 27,82% 68,64% 3,54% 101676 40,82%
Wyoming 2008 82868 164958 5023 252849 32,77% 65,24% 1,99% 82090 32,47%
Diff: -13582 6004 3790 -3788 -4,95% 3,40% 1,55% 19586 8,36%



To note: we still have no updates from New York (will come out on December 3rd), Illinois, New Jersey and Massachusetts - all very strong Obama states. But we also have not had a major update out of Texas yet, a strong Romney state.

Some of Ohio's provisionals have been counted and reported, but the reports are mostly from smaller RED counties, and Obama's statewide margin actually went UP, from +1.91 to +1.92. The chances are very strong that at the end of the day, Ohio will surpass North Carolina in margin, making North Carolina the 2nd closest race of the night, after Florida. Also to notice is that the 2 closest races of 2012 were not nearly as close as the two closest races from 2008 (NC, MO), 2004 (WI, IA) or 2000 (FL, NM). At the end of the day, +0.88% margin for Obama in Florida is close, but it is in no way a squeaker.

The changes in the popular vote have caused changes in the preliminary partisan rankings:

On the Democratic side:

New Hampshire and Iowa have switched places and moved simultaneously up from 22/23 to 21/22, as Pennsylvania's margin decreased.

Colorado, which was 24, has moved up to 23, and Pennsylvania has moved under Colorado, also making Pennsylvania and not Colorado the "tipping point" state. Interesting.

On the Republican side:

Rankings 22/11: Arizona and Missouri have traded places. Arizona is now 22nd, Missouri is now 21st.

Rankings 17/16: Montana and Alaska have traded places. Montana is now 17th, Alaska is now 16th.

Rankings 9/8: Alabama and Nebraska have traded places. Nebraska is now 9th, Alabama is now 10th, which is interesting, for now, once again, Nebraska and Kansas are next to each other in the rankings. In fact, at the current time, the margin in both states is IDENTICAL. Both NE and KS currently show Romney +21.94%. This is a really astounding statistic when you also consider that in 2008, McCain won both states with nearly identical margins: +14.92% and +14.93%, which means a nearly identical +7.01 to +7.02 increase in margin in both states!

Here are the partisan rankings.

First, the full table (2012 on the left, 2008 on the right - exact state to state correspondence):

Rank '12 State EV 2012 Margin '12 Swing: '12 / '08 2012 FINAL PA Diff: '12/'12 PA
Diff: '08/'08 PA 2008 Final PA Margin - '08 State Rank '08
1 DC 3 83,63 -2,30 80,00 3,63
16,93 69,00 85,93 DC 1
2 HI 4 42,71 -2,55 27,00 15,71
9,26 36,00 45,26 HI 2
3 VT 3 35,60 -1,41 37,00 -1,40
10,01 27,00 37,01 VT 3
4 RI 4 27,46 -0,35 21,00 6,46
9,71 18,10 27,81 RI 4
5 NY 29 26,66 -0,20 25,20 1,46
-2,14 29,00 26,86 NY 5
6 MD 10 26,08 0,64 21,67 4,41
8,14 17,30 25,44 MD 7
7 MA 11 23,12 -2,69 19,00 4,12
4,48 21,33 25,81 MA 6
8 CA 55 22,16 -1,87 15,80 6,36
0,03 24,00 24,03 CA 10
9 DE 3 18,63 -6,35 17,00 1,63
4,28 20,70 24,98 DE 9
10 CT 7 17,99 -4,38 11,50 6,49
6,37 16,00 22,37 CT 11
11 NJ 14 16,93 -5,44 11,00 5,93
-2,53 24,90 15,53 NJ 16
12 IL 20 16,88 -8,23 17,50 -0,62
7,96 17,15 25,11 IL 8
13 ME 4 15,09 -2,23 11,03 4,06
2,72 14,60 17,32 ME 12
14 WA 12 14,81 -2,27 13,74 1,07
7,82 9,26 17,08 WA 13
15 OR 7 11,96 -4,39 6,00 5,96
0,78 15,57 16,35 OR 15
16 NM 5 10,15 -4,98 8,00 2,15
-6,20 21,33 15,13 NM 17
17 MI 16 9,52 -6,92 4,79 4,73
4,44 12,00 16,44 MI 14
18 MN 10 7,65 -2,59 6,25 1,40
-4,20 14,44 10,24 MN 21
19 WI 10 6,71 -7,19 4,63 2,08
2,56 11,34 13,90 WI 18
20 NV 6 6,68 -5,81 4,67 2,01
5,66 6,83 12,49 NV 19
21 IA 6 5,81 -3,72 2,14 3,67
-0,90 10,43 9,53 IA 23
22 NH 4 5,58 -4,03 2,50 3,08
2,31 7,30 9,61 NH 22
23 CO 9 5,39 -3,56 1,87 3,52
2,33 6,62 8,95 CO 24
24 PA 20 5,38 -4,93 4,20 1,18
-2,44 12,75 10,31 PA 20
25 VA 13 3,87 -2,43 0,77 3,10
1,37 4,93 6,30 VA 25
26 OH 18 1,92 -2,66 3,24 -1,32
2,28 2,30 4,58 OH 26
27 FL 29 0,88 -1,93 0,61 0,27
1,02 1,79 2,81 FL 27

Total EV: 332
























538 3,32 -3,94 1,22 1,22
1,22 7,54 7,26 USA --













Rank '12 State EV 2012 Margin '12
2012 FINAL PA Diff: '12/'12 PA
Diff. 1 2008 Final PA Margin - '08 State Rank '08
24 NC 15 2,04 2,37 2,40 4,44
-0,29 0,62 0,33 NC 29
23 GA 16 7,82 2,62 8,25 -0,43
1,35 3,85 5,20 GA 20
22 AZ 11 9,04 0,56 7,67 1,37
4,05 4,43 8,48 AZ 18
21 MO 10 9,41 9,28 10,12 -0,71
-0,33 0,46 0,13 MO 22
20 IN 11 10,20 11,23 11,20 21,40
-0,15 1,18 1,03 IN 28
19 SC 9 10,47 1,49 6,00 4,47
-3,57 12,55 8,98 SC 16
18 MS 6 11,69 -1,48 15,00 -3,31
2,67 10,50 13,17 MS 13
17 MT 3 13,66 11,28 8,68 4,98
0,74 1,64 2,38 MT 21
16 AK 3 14,00 -7,54 22,00 -8,00
6,96 14,58 21,54 AK 6
15 TX 38 15,79 4,03 17,50 -1,71
-1,24 13,00 11,76 TX 15
14 LA 8 17,21 -1,42 14,07 3,14
8,20 10,43 18,63 LA 8
13 SD 3 18,02 9,61 12,00 6,02
0,91 7,50 8,41 SD 19
12 ND 3 19,62 10,97 17,50 2,12
7,31 1,34 8,65 ND 17
11 TN 11 20,41 5,35 18,00 2,41
1,06 14,00 15,06 TN 10
10 KS 6 21,94 7,02 19,80 2,14
-2,08 17,00 14,92 KS 12
9 NE* 5 21,94 7,01 17,25 4,69
-4,07 19,00 14,93 NE* 11
8 AL 9 22,24 0,66 15,00 7,24
2,25 19,33 21,58 AL 5
7 KY 8 22,70 6,48 14,00 8,70
3,82 12,40 16,22 KY 9
6 AR 6 23,69 3,84 27,00 -3,31
9,10 10,75 19,85 AR 7
5 WV 5 26,82 13,73 14,00 12,82
5,43 7,66 13,09 WV 14
4 ID 4 31,91 6,61 36,00 -4,09
2,30 23,00 25,30 ID 4
3 OK 7 33,54 2,25 25,90 7,64
1,14 30,15 31,29 OK 2
2 WY 3 40,82 8,58 40,00 0,82
9,24 23,00 32,24 WY 1
1 UT 6 47,72 19,70 46,33 1,39
4,02 24,00 28,02 UT 3



Here the table, 2012 compared to 2008, RANK to RANK exact correspondence:


Rank '12 State Margin '12
Rank '08 State Margin - '08
1 DC 83,63
1 DC 85,93
2 HI 42,71
2 HI 45,26
3 VT 35,60
3 VT 37,01
4 RI 27,46
4 RI 27,81
5 NY 26,66
5 NY 26,86
6 MD 26,08
6 MA 25,81
7 MA 23,12
7 MD 25,44
8 CA 22,16
8 IL 25,11
9 DE 18,63
9 DE 24,98
10 IL 16,88
10 CA 24,03
11 CT 17,99
11 CT 22,37
12 NJ 16,93
12 ME 17,32
13 ME 15,09
13 WA 17,08
14 WA 14,81
14 MI 16,44
15 OR 11,96
15 OR 16,35
16 NM 10,15
16 NJ 15,53
17 MI 9,52
17 NM 15,13
18 MN 7,65
18 WI 13,90
19 WI 6,71
19 NV 12,49
20 NV 6,68
20 PA 10,31
21 IA 5,81
21 MN 10,24
22 NH 5,58
22 NH 9,61
23 CO 5,39
23 IA 9,53
24 PA 5,38
24 CO 8,95
25 VA 3,87
25 VA 6,30
26 OH 1,92
26 OH 4,58
27 FL 0,88
27 FL 2,81
24 NC 2,04
28 IN 1,03
23 GA 7,82
29 NC 0,33
22 AZ 9,04
22 MO 0,13
21 MO 9,41
21 MT 2,38
20 IN 10,20
20 GA 5,20
19 SC 10,47
19 SD 8,41
18 MS 11,69
18 AZ 8,48
17 MT 13,66
17 ND 8,65
16 AK 14,00
16 SC 8,98
15 TX 15,79
15 TX 11,76
14 LA 17,21
14 WV 13,09
13 SD 18,02
13 MS 13,17
12 ND 19,62
12 KS 14,92
11 TN 20,41
11 NE* 14,93
10 KS 21,94
10 TN 15,06
9 NE* 21,94
9 KY 16,22
8 AL 22,24
8 LA 18,63
7 KY 22,70
6 AK 21,54
6 AR 23,69
5 AL 21,58
5 WV 26,82
4 ID 25,30
4 ID 31,91
7 AR 27,00
3 OK 33,54
3 UT 28,02
2 WY 40,82
2 OK 31,29
1 UT 47,72
1 WY 32,24








USA 2,71
-- USA 7,26

And for good measure, 2012 over the last re-election, 2004, STATE to STATE, exact correspondence:

Rank '12 State Margin '12 EV 2012
Rank '04 State Margin - '04 Diff: '12/'04
1 DC 83,63 3
1 DC 79,84 3,79
2 HI 42,71 4
11 HI 8,74 33,97
3 VT 35,60 3
4 VT 20,14 15,46
4 RI 27,46 4
3 RI 20,75 6,71
5 NY 26,66 29
5 NY 18,29 8,37
6 MD 26,08 10
6 MD 12,98 13,10
7 MA 23,12 11
2 MA 25,16 -2,04
8 CA 22,16 55
9 CA 9,95 12,21
9 DE 18,63 3
12 DE 7,59 11,04
10 CT 17,04 7
7 CT 10,37 6,67
11 NJ 16,93 14
14 NJ 6,68 10,25
12 IL 16,88 20
8 IL 10,34 6,54
13 ME 15,09 4
10 ME 9,00 6,09
14 WA 14,81 12
13 WA 7,58 7,23
15 OR 11,96 7
15 OR 4,16 7,80
16 NM 10,15 5
30 NM 0,79 10,94
17 MI 9,52 16
17 MI 3,42 6,10
18 MN 7,65 10
16 MN 3,48 4,17
19 WI 6,71 10
20 WI 0,38 6,33
20 NV 6,68 6
28 NV 2,59 4,09
21 IA 5,81 6
31 IA 0,67 6,48
22 NH 5,58 4
19 NH 1,37 4,21
23 CO 5,39 9
27 CO 4,67 10,06
24 PA 5,38 20
18 PA 2,50 2,88
25 VA 3,87 13
24 VA 8,20 12,07
26 OH 1,92 18
29 OH 2,11 4,03
27 FL 0,88 29
26 FL 5,01 5,89










USA 2,71


USA 7,26 -4,55









Rank '12 State Margin '12 EV 2012
Rank '04 State Margin - '04 Diff: '12/'04
24 NC 2,04 15
21 NC 12,43 -10,39
23 GA 7,82 16
17 GA 16,60 -8,78
22 AZ 9,04 11
22 AZ 10,47 -1,43
21 MO 9,41 10
25 MO 7,20 2,21
20 IN 10,20 11
12 IN 20,68 -10,48
19 SC 10,47 9
16 SC 17,08 -6,61
18 MS 11,69 6
15 MS 19,69 -8,00
17 MT 13,66 3
13 MT 20,50 -6,84
16 AK 14,00 3
8 AK 25,55 -11,55
15 TX 15,79 38
10 TX 22,86 -7,07
14 LA 17,21 8
18 LA 14,51 2,70
13 SD 18,02 3
11 SD 21,47 -3,45
12 ND 19,62 3
6 ND 27,36 -7,74
11 TN 20,41 11
19 TN 14,27 6,14
10 KS 21,94 6
9 KS 25,38 -3,44
9 NE* 21,94 5
4 NE* 33,22 -11,28
8 AL 22,24 9
7 AL 25,62 -3,38
7 KY 22,70 8
14 KY 19,86 2,84
6 AR 23,69 6
23 AR 9,76 13,93
5 WV 26,82 5
20 WV 12,86 13,96
4 ID 31,91 4
3 ID 38,12 -6,21
3 OK 33,54 7
5 OK 31,14 2,40
2 WY 40,82 3
2 WY 39,79 1,03
1 UT 47,72 6
1 UT 45,54 2,18



And the same 2012 over 2004 table, ordered according to the swing between the two elections, in hourglass form:

Rank '12 State Margin '12 EV 2012
Rank '04 State Margin - '04 Diff: '12/'04
2 HI 42,71 4
11 HI 8,74 33,97
3 VT 35,60 3
4 VT 20,14 15,46
6 MD 26,08 10
6 MD 12,98 13,10
25 VA 3,87 13
24 VA 8,20 12,07
8 CA 22,16 55
9 CA 9,95 12,21
9 DE 18,63 3
12 DE 7,59 11,04
16 NM 10,15 5
30 NM 0,79 10,94
11 NJ 16,93 14
14 NJ 6,68 10,25
24 CO 5,39 9
27 CO 4,67 10,06
5 NY 26,66 29
5 NY 18,29 8,37
15 OR 11,96 7
15 OR 4,16 7,80
10 CT 17,99 7
7 CT 10,37 7,62
14 WA 14,81 12
13 WA 7,58 7,23
4 RI 27,46 4
3 RI 20,75 6,71
12 IL 16,88 20
8 IL 10,34 6,54
22 IA 5,81 6
31 IA 0,67 6,48
19 WI 6,71 10
20 WI 0,38 6,33
17 MI 9,52 16
17 MI 3,42 6,10
13 ME 15,09 4
10 ME 9,00 6,09
27 FL 0,88 29
26 FL 5,01 5,89
21 NH 5,58 4
19 NH 1,37 4,21
18 MN 7,65 10
16 MN 3,48 4,17
20 NV 6,68 6
28 NV 2,59 4,09
26 OH 1,92 18
29 OH 2,11 4,03
1 DC 83,63 3
1 DC 79,84 3,79
23 PA 5,38 20
18 PA 2,50 2,88
7 MA 23,12 11
2 MA 25,16 -2,04










USA 2,71


USA 7,26 -4,55









Rank '12 State Margin '12 EV 2012
Rank '04 State Margin - '04 Diff: '12/'04
17 AK 14,00 3
8 AK 25,55 -11,55
8 NE* 21,94 5
4 NE* 33,22 -11,28
20 IN 10,20 11
12 IN 20,68 -10,48
24 NC 2,04 15
21 NC 12,43 -10,39
23 GA 7,82 16
17 GA 16,60 -8,78
18 MS 11,67 6
15 MS 19,69 -8,02
12 ND 19,62 3
6 ND 27,36 -7,74
15 TX 15,79 38
10 TX 22,86 -7,07
16 MT 13,66 3
13 MT 20,50 -6,84
19 SC 10,47 9
16 SC 17,08 -6,61
4 ID 31,91 4
3 ID 38,12 -6,21
13 SD 18,02 3
11 SD 21,47 -3,45
10 KS 21,94 6
9 KS 25,38 -3,44
9 AL 22,24 9
7 AL 25,62 -3,38
21 AZ 9,04 11
22 AZ 10,47 -1,43
2 WY 40,82 3
2 WY 39,79 1,03
1 UT 47,72 6
1 UT 45,54 2,18
22 MO 9,41 10
25 MO 7,20 2,21
3 OK 33,54 7
5 OK 31,14 2,40
14 LA 17,21 8
18 LA 14,51 2,70
7 KY 22,70 8
14 KY 19,86 2,84
11 TN 20,41 11
19 TN 14,27 6,14
6 AR 23,69 6
23 AR 9,76 13,93
5 WV 26,82 5
20 WV 12,86 13,96



Why the comparison to 2004? Well, 2004 was the last re-election of a president who was really not liked by the other side, the election was hotly contested and ended up being mostly a GOTV, base election. And in many battleground reports during October, I wrote repeatedly that Mitt Romney would need to get back to the Bush margins from 2004 in the Red states at least in order to counter huge Obama margins expected in large blue states like California, New York, Illinois, etc. From the table, you can see that of Mitt Romney's 24 states, he did worse than Bush, Jr. from 2004 in 15 of them. In 9 states, he did better. Note that the upward shifts in both Arkansas and West Virginia for Romney are almost identical to each other.

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The BREADBASKET STATES from the MID-WEST:

I already noted that at the current time, both Kansas and Nebraska are showing EXACTLY the same margin for Romney: +21.94%. This will probably change, but once again, as in 2008, the two states are like carbon copies of each other in the electoral college. Likewise, and not for the first time in our history, both North and South Dakota are next to each other in the partisan rankings, with North Dakota, as usual, posting a slightly larger conservative margin than South Dakota.

But what is most telling is the SWING, or the difference in margin between 2008 and 2012. Here is a map, highlighting the numbers for the Midwest:


And so we see that geography really does play a role. Looking at the Breadbasket states, looking northward from Kansas up to North Dakota, we see an ever rising swing, from GOP +7.01 in Kansas to GOP +10.97 in North Dakota, but notice how close the swings are within the two pairs (Kansas and Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota). Though Montana is not a breadbasket state, notice that the swing is also similar there,

One row of states to the right (ignore Missouri for now), the two Obama states of MN and IA both show GOP swings between 2.6 and 3.7, less than the swings in the breadbasket states.

Look again one row of states to the right and notice the similarity in swing between Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan - around GOP +7 in the two Great Lakes states and GOP +8 in Illinois, where Obama's margin was so heavily padded from 2008, even a landslide loss to Romney, had it happened in 2012, would not have given Romney this state.

The swing in Ohio is the smallest of all of these, but Ohio has tended to be a narrow single-digit win state for years, so the swings can't be all that large, either. Interestingly enough, the swing in Ohio looks almost identical to the swings in VA, NC, SC, GA and FL, which I will analyze later.

The swings in Indiana and Missouri are very close to each other, making Indiana look more and more like a part of the so-called "Bible Belt" all the time.

Why this information? Well, context is everything. Knowing where you came from helps you to know where you are going. The partisan swings were not uniform across the Union, but there are similarites in geographical regions, and this one sample map proves.

And when we look at a rock solid core GOP states like Kansas and Nebraska, guaranteed to go by all wind and weather to the GOP in a presidential election, we see two Romney wins that are an improvement upon John McCain's statistic from 2008, but still decidedly under Bush 43's, Reagan's and Nixon's margins in those states. And those are the kinds of margins that a Republican needs to win in his core states in order to be winning nationally, plain and simple.

So, it's not just that Obama's Midwest "Firewall" held. It did. But Romney was also unable to excite the conservatives in 15 of the 24 GOP states he did win to return to the margins of Bush from 8 and 12 years ago.


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Oh, and the Democratic equivalent of Kansas-Nebraska?

Well, right now it's Obama +5.39% in Colorado and Obama +5.38% in Pennsylvania....

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