28 November 2012

Preliminary Totals IX: 11/28/2012, Obama +3.48%, Ohio jumps in margin

On 11/26/2012, there were 127,085,164 total votes counted. As of 11/28/2012, AM, there are now 127,654,582 votes counted, an increase of 569,418 votes.

Obama's margin has risen from +3.35% on 11/26/2012 to +3.48% on 11/28/2012.

Here the national numbers at a glance:

USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %










2012 64952530 60511215 2190837 127654582 50,88% 47,40% 1,72% 4441315 3,48%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26%
Diff: -4546898 560892 181308 -3804698 -1,99% 1,80% 0,19% -5107790 -3,78%












President Obama is closing in on the 51% mark (it already rounds to it) and Mitt Romney has moved downward to 47.40% (which rounds to 47%).

We are now "just" 3.8 million votes shy of the record breaking election of 2008, but securely in the postion of the 2nd highest national popular vote raw total in our Union's history. And President Obama  currently holds the record for the highest -and- second highest vote total ever given a candidate in our history.

To give this some context, alone, just President Obama's two national winning totals together, which make 134,451,958, is more than the total votes from all candidates of all the elections from 1856-1908, 52 years or 14 straight cycles, totalling 132,449,397 votes!

As of 11/28/2012, 15 states have now made their results official:

Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming. (On 11/26, it was 13 states, the two additions to this list are in bold).

The state of Ohio is not yet officially releasing the totals from the preliminary vote counts until all 88 counties have reported in, but David Wasserman at the Cook Report has been following each of the Ohio county results pages and also updating the numbers on Twitter (@Redistrict) and on his own excellent EXCEL table.

The margin in Ohio has jumped very much, from +1.92% on 11/26/2012, to +2.73% as of today. Here the exact Ohio stats at current:

USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %
Ohio 2012 2792585 2641694 96199 5530478 50,49% 47,77% 1,74% 150891 2,73%
Ohio 2008 2940044 2677820 103951 5721815 51,38% 46,80% 1,82% 262224 4,58%
Diff: -147459 -36126 -7752 -191337 -0,89% 0,97% -0,08% -111333 -1,85%

Inside the new numbers from Ohio are the provisional totals from Cuyahoga, Lucas, Stark, Trumbull, Lorain, Summit, Montgomery and Hamilton counties. Stark County, which was a Romney pick-up county on election night, has now moved into the President's column. It, like Montgomery County is a major bellwether in the state. Franklin County, which gave the President a very large win and is the second largest county in Ohio, is still out, but a number of very small red counties are also out. I suspect that the president jumps to slightly above +3 in Ohio when all is said and done, an in doing so, is in line with electoral history, which has more often than not showed a Democratic candidate winning Ohio, but with a margin under his national margin.

David Wasserman thinks that still about 1.5-2.0 million votes may be out there to count. I don't know, it appears that we pretty much got most all of them by now, but indeed I could be surprised when New York puts out it's final canvass. Its numbers are so far under the 2008 total, I have no idea how many provisional ballots our of New York City itself are to be counted or have been counted, but not yet reported.

Historically, almost every state makes at least a small bump in the numbers when it releases its final canvass. With 15 state results now official, that leaves 36 states to yet certify their results, and all of the biggest of the states are among them. So, yes, alone from the "bump", about 500,000 should still be out.

The following 18 states have now exceeded their total vote totals from 2008, thus setting new records:

Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, DC, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Carolina, Utah, Virginia, Washington State and Wisconsin.

Unless another change is recorded for New Hampshire, then it will have missed its 2008 total by all of 55 votes!

Interestingly, the key battleground states from the Midwest/Rust-Belt (Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan) are all under their vote totals from 2008. Ohio is still 191,000 votes short of its last total, and I do not believe that there are that many provisionals out there left to record. Perhaps bombarding a state with advertisements and extra visits as Obama and Romney did it 2012 actually caused a slight backlash in voting in Ohio. Wait and see. Regardless, Obama's current Ohio total, even if it does not change, is the second highest Democratic total in all of Ohio's history, right behind Obama 2008. Romney's current total is slightly behind McCain's total from 2004 and Reagan's total from 1984, but decisively behind Bush's total from 2004, making it currently the 4th highest GOP vote total in the state's history, but this may change again when the final canvasses come out.

Here the complete table:

USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %










2012 64952530 60511215 2190837 127654582 50,88% 47,40% 1,72% 4441315 3,48%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26%
Diff: -4546898 560892 181308 -3804698 -1,99% 1,80% 0,19% -5107790 -3,78%




















Alabama 2012 794610 1254433 18660 2067703 38,43% 60,67% 0,90% 459823 22,24%
Alabama 2008 813479 1266546 19794 2099819 38,74% 60,32% 0,94% 453067 21,58%
Diff: -18869 -12113 -1134 -32116 -0,31% 0,35% -0,04% 6756 0,66%










Alaska 2012 122533 164599 13249 300381 40,79% 54,80% 4,41% 42066 14,00%
Alaska 2008 123594 193841 8762 326197 37,89% 59,42% 2,69% 70247 21,54%
Diff: -1061 -29242 4487 -25816 2,90% -4,63% 1,72% -28181 -7,53%










Arizona 2012 1025232 1233654 47673 2306559 44,45% 53,48% 2,07% 208422 9,04%
Arizona 2008 1034707 1230111 39020 2303838 44,91% 53,39% 1,69% 195404 8,48%
Diff: -9475 3543 8653 2721 -0,46% 0,09% 0,37% 13018 0,55%










Arkansas 2012 * 394409 647744 27315 1069468 36,88% 60,57% 2,55% 253335 23,69%
Arkansas 2008 422310 638017 26290 1086617 38,86% 58,72% 2,42% 215707 19,85%
Diff: -27901 9727 1025 -17149 -1,99% 1,85% 0,13% 37628 3,84%










California 2012 7574307 4737808 331464 12643579 59,91% 37,47% 2,62% 2836499 22,43%
California 2008 8274473 5011781 291011 13577265 60,94% 36,91% 2,14% 3262692 24,03%
Diff: -700166 -273973 40453 -933686 -1,04% 0,56% 0,48% -426193 -1,60%










Colorado 2012 1321900 1183648 61084 2566632 51,50% 46,12% 2,38% 138252 5,39%
Colorado 2008 1288633 1073629 39200 2401462 53,66% 44,71% 1,63% 215004 8,95%
Diff: 33267 110019 21884 165170 -2,16% 1,41% 0,75% -76752 -3,57%










Connecticut 2012 912531 631432 18220 1562183 58,41% 40,42% 1,17% 281099 17,99%
Connecticut 2008 997773 629428 19592 1646793 60,59% 38,22% 1,19% 368345 22,37%
Diff: -85242 2004 -1372 -84610 -2,18% 2,20% -0,02% -87246 -4,37%










Delaware 2012 * 242584 165484 5822 413890 58,61% 39,98% 1,41% 77100 18,63%
Delaware 2008 255459 152374 4783 412616 61,91% 36,93% 1,16% 103085 24,98%
Diff: -12875 13110 1039 1274 -3,30% 3,05% 0,25% -25985 -6,36%










DC 2012 267070 21381 5313 293764 90,91% 7,28% 1,81% 245689 83,63%
DC 2008 245800 17367 2686 265853 92,46% 6,53% 1,01% 228433 85,92%
Diff: 21270 4014 2627 27911 -1,54% 0,75% 0,80% 17256 -2,29%










Florida 2012 * 4237756 4163447 72976 8474179 50,01% 49,13% 0,86% 74309 0,88%
Florida 2008 4282367 4046219 83275 8411861 50,91% 48,10% 0,99% 236148 2,81%
Diff: -44611 117228 -10299 62318 -0,90% 1,03% -0,13% -161839 -1,93%










Georgia 2012 * 1773827 2078688 45324 3897839 45,51% 53,33% 1,16% 304861 7,82%
Georgia 2008 1844123 2048759 39276 3932158 46,90% 52,10% 1,00% 204636 5,20%
Diff: -70296 29929 6048 -34319 -1,39% 1,23% 0,16% 100225 2,62%










Hawaii 2012 306658 121015 7024 434697 70,55% 27,84% 1,62% 185643 42,71%
Hawaii 2008 325871 120566 7131 453568 71,85% 26,58% 1,57% 205305 45,26%
Diff: -19213 449 -107 -18871 -1,30% 1,26% 0,04% -19662 -2,56%










Idaho 2012 * 212787 420911 18576 652274 32,62% 64,53% 2,85% 208124 31,91%
Idaho 2008 236440 403012 19002 658454 35,91% 61,21% 2,89% 166572 25,30%
Diff: -23653 17899 -426 -6180 -3,29% 3,32% -0,04% 41552 6,61%










Illinois 2012 3017151 2133324 86323 5236798 57,61% 40,74% 1,65% 883827 16,88%
Illinois 2008 3419348 2031179 77828 5528355 61,85% 36,74% 1,41% 1388169 25,11%
Diff: -402197 102145 8495 -291557 -4,24% 4,00% 0,24% -504342 -8,23%










Indiana 2012 1152887 1420543 51104 2624534 43,93% 54,13% 1,95% 267656 10,20%
Indiana 2008 1374039 1345648 35903 2755590 49,86% 48,83% 1,30% 28391 1,03%
Diff: -221152 74895 15201 -131056 -5,94% 5,29% 0,64% -296047 11,23%










Iowa 2012 822523 730593 29018 1582134 51,99% 46,18% 1,83% 91930 5,81%
Iowa 2008 828940 682379 25804 1537123 53,93% 44,39% 1,68% 146561 9,53%
Diff: -6417 48214 3214 45011 -1,94% 1,78% 0,16% -54631 -3,72%










Kansas 2012 430750 679738 24607 1135095 37,95% 59,88% 2,17% 248988 21,94%
Kansas 2008 514765 699655 23996 1238416 41,57% 56,50% 1,94% 184890 14,93%
Diff: -84015 -19917 611 -103321 -3,62% 3,39% 0,23% 64098 7,01%










Kentucky 2012 679364 1087150 30273 1796787 37,81% 60,51% 1,68% 407786 22,70%
Kentucky 2008 751985 1048462 27140 1827587 41,15% 57,37% 1,49% 296477 16,22%
Diff: -72621 38688 3133 -30800 -3,34% 3,14% 0,20% 111309 6,47%










Louisiana 2012 * 809141 1152262 32662 1994065 40,58% 57,78% 1,64% 343121 17,21%
Louisiana 2008 782989 1148275 29497 1960761 39,93% 58,56% 1,50% 365286 18,63%
Diff: 26152 3987 3165 33304 0,64% -0,78% 0,13% -22165 -1,42%










Maine 2012 398043 290678 22547 711268 55,96% 40,87% 3,17% 107365 15,09%
Maine 2008 421923 295273 13967 731163 57,71% 40,38% 1,91% 126650 17,32%
Diff: -23880 -4595 8580 -19895 -1,74% 0,48% 1,26% -19285 -2,23%










Maryland 2012 * 1677844 971869 57614 2707327 61,97% 35,90% 2,13% 705975 26,08%
Maryland 2008 1629467 959862 42267 2631596 61,92% 36,47% 1,61% 669605 25,44%
Diff: 48377 12007 15347 75731 0,05% -0,58% 0,52% 36370 0,63%










Massachusetts 2012 1901899 1178055 50189 3130143 60,76% 37,64% 1,60% 723844 23,12%
Massachusetts 2008 1904098 1108854 68117 3081069 61,80% 35,99% 2,21% 795244 25,81%
Diff: -2199 69201 -17928 49074 -1,04% 1,65% -0,61% -71400 -2,69%










Michigan 2012 * 2564569 2115256 51136 4730961 54,21% 44,71% 1,08% 449313 9,50%
Michigan 2008 2872579 2048639 88976 5010194 57,33% 40,89% 1,78% 823940 16,45%
Diff: -308010 66617 -37840 -279233 -3,13% 3,82% -0,70% -374627 -6,95%










Minnesota 2012 1546178 1321469 70157 2937804 52,63% 44,98% 2,39% 224709 7,65%
Minnesota 2008 1573354 1275409 61606 2910369 54,06% 43,82% 2,12% 297945 10,24%
Diff: -27176 46060 8551 27435 -1,43% 1,16% 0,27% -73236 -2,59%










Mississippi 2012 558349 707532 10473 1276354 43,75% 55,43% 0,82% 149183 11,69%
Mississippi 2008 554662 724597 10606 1289865 43,00% 56,18% 0,82% 169935 13,17%
Diff: 3687 -17065 -133 -13511 0,74% -0,74% 0,00% -20752 -1,49%










Missouri 2012 1223095 1482426 51086 2756607 44,37% 53,78% 1,85% 259331 9,41%
Missouri 2008 1441911 1445814 41224 2928949 49,23% 49,36% 1,41% 3903 0,13%
Diff: -218816 36612 9862 -172342 -4,86% 4,41% 0,45% 255428 9,27%










Montana 2012 201839 267928 14165 483932 41,71% 55,36% 2,93% 66089 13,66%
Montana 2008 232159 243882 16709 492750 47,11% 49,49% 3,39% 11723 2,38%
Diff: -30320 24046 -2544 -8818 -5,41% 5,87% -0,46% 54366 11,28%










Nebraska 2012 301687 475256 14165 791108 38,13% 60,07% 1,79% 173569 21,94%
Nebraska 2008 333319 452979 14983 801281 41,60% 56,53% 1,87% 119660 14,93%
Diff: -31632 22277 -818 -10173 -3,46% 3,54% -0,08% 53909 7,01%










NE-02 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
2008 138809 135439 3561 277809 49,97% 48,75% 1,28% 3370 1,21%
Diff: -138809 -135439 -3561 -277809 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3370 #DIV/0!










Nevada 2012 531373 463567 19978 1014918 52,36% 45,68% 1,97% 67806 6,68%
Nevada 2008 533736 412827 21285 967848 55,15% 42,65% 2,20% 120909 12,49%
Diff: -2363 50740 -1307 47070 -2,79% 3,02% -0,23% -53103 -5,81%










New Hampshire 2012 * 369553 329910 11452 710915 51,98% 46,41% 1,61% 39643 5,58%
New Hampshire 2008 384826 316534 9610 710970 54,13% 44,52% 1,35% 68292 9,61%
Diff: -15273 13376 1842 -55 -2,14% 1,88% 0,26% -28649 -4,03%










New Jersey 2012 2061201 1446269 44269 3551739 58,03% 40,72% 1,25% 614932 17,31%
New Jersey 2008 2215422 1613207 48778 3877407 57,14% 41,61% 1,26% 602215 15,53%
Diff: -154221 -166938 -4509 -325668 0,90% -0,89% -0,01% 12717 1,78%










New Mexico 2012 415145 335594 32616 783355 53,00% 42,84% 4,16% 79551 10,16%
New Mexico 2008 472422 346832 10904 830158 56,91% 41,78% 1,31% 125590 15,13%
Diff: -57277 -11238 21712 -46803 -3,91% 1,06% 2,85% -46039 -4,97%










New York 2012 3962513 2282311 90766 6335590 62,54% 36,02% 1,43% 1680202 26,52%
New York 2008 4804945 2752771 83232 7640948 62,88% 36,03% 1,09% 2052174 26,86%
Diff: -842432 -470460 7534 -1305358 -0,34% 0,00% 0,34% -371972 -0,34%










North Carolina 2012 2178391 2270395 56586 4505372 48,35% 50,39% 1,26% 92004 2,04%
North Carolina 2008 2142651 2128474 39664 4310789 49,70% 49,38% 0,92% 14177 0,33%
Diff: 35740 141921 16922 194583 -1,35% 1,02% 0,34% -106181 2,37%










North Dakota 2012 * 124966 188320 9646 322932 38,70% 58,32% 2,99% 63354 19,62%
North Dakota 2008 141403 168887 7448 317738 44,50% 53,15% 2,34% 27484 8,65%
Diff: -16437 19433 2198 5194 -5,81% 5,16% 0,64% 35870 10,97%










Ohio 2012 2792585 2641694 96199 5530478 50,49% 47,77% 1,74% 150891 2,73%
Ohio 2008 2940044 2677820 103951 5721815 51,38% 46,80% 1,82% 262224 4,58%
Diff: -147459 -36126 -7752 -191337 -0,89% 0,97% -0,08% -111333 -1,85%










Oklahoma 2012 * 443547 891325 0 1334872 33,23% 66,77% 0,00% 447778 33,54%
Oklahoma 2008 502496 960165 0 1462661 34,35% 65,65% 0,00% 457669 31,29%
Diff: -58949 -68840 0 -127789 -1,13% 1,13% 0,00% -9891 2,25%










Oregon 2012 970343 754095 63442 1787880 54,27% 42,18% 3,55% 216248 12,10%
Oregon 2008 1037291 738475 52098 1827864 56,75% 40,40% 2,85% 298816 16,35%
Diff: -66948 15620 11344 -39984 -2,48% 1,78% 0,70% -82568 -4,25%










Pennsylvania 2012 2981660 2673398 71068 5726126 52,07% 46,69% 1,24% 308262 5,38%
Pennsylvania 2008 3276363 2655885 83228 6015476 54,47% 44,15% 1,38% 620478 10,31%
Diff: -294703 17513 -12160 -289350 -2,39% 2,54% -0,14% -312216 -4,93%










Rhode Island 2012 279677 157204 9168 446049 62,70% 35,24% 2,06% 122473 27,46%
Rhode Island 2008 296571 165391 9804 471766 62,86% 35,06% 2,08% 131180 27,81%
Diff: -16894 -8187 -636 -25717 -0,16% 0,19% -0,02% -8707 -0,35%










South Carolina 2012 * 865941 1071645 26532 1964118 44,09% 54,56% 1,35% 205704 10,47%
South Carolina 2008 862449 1034896 23624 1920969 44,90% 53,87% 1,23% 172447 8,98%
Diff: 3492 36749 2908 43149 -0,81% 0,69% 0,12% 33257 1,50%










South Dakota 2012 * 145039 210610 8166 363815 39,87% 57,89% 2,24% 65571 18,02%
South Dakota 2008 170924 203054 7997 381975 44,75% 53,16% 2,09% 32130 8,41%
Diff: -25885 7556 169 -18160 -4,88% 4,73% 0,15% 33441 9,61%










Tennessee 2012 959054 1459965 35451 2454470 39,07% 59,48% 1,44% 500911 20,41%
Tennessee 2008 1087437 1479178 35367 2601982 41,79% 56,85% 1,36% 391741 15,06%
Diff: -128383 -19213 84 -147512 -2,72% 2,63% 0,09% 109170 5,35%










Texas 2012 3305242 4566172 116378 7987792 41,38% 57,16% 1,46% 1260930 15,79%
Texas 2008 3528633 4479328 79247 8087208 43,63% 55,39% 0,98% 950695 11,76%
Diff: -223391 86844 37131 -99416 -2,25% 1,78% 0,48% 310235 4,03%










Utah 2012 250161 732415 28038 1010614 24,75% 72,47% 2,77% 482254 47,72%
Utah 2008 327670 596030 33781 957481 34,22% 62,25% 3,53% 268360 28,03%
Diff: -77509 136385 -5743 53133 -9,47% 10,22% -0,75% 213894 19,69%










Vermont 2012 * 199239 92698 7353 299290 66,57% 30,97% 2,46% 106541 35,60%
Vermont 2008 219262 98974 6810 325046 67,46% 30,45% 2,10% 120288 37,01%
Diff: -20023 -22206 543 -41686 -0,89% 0,52% 0,36% 2183 -1,41%










Virginia 2012 1971820 1822522 60147 3854489 51,16% 47,28% 1,56% 149298 3,87%
Virginia 2008 1959532 1725005 38723 3723260 52,63% 46,33% 1,04% 234527 6,30%
Diff: 12288 97517 21424 131229 -1,47% 0,95% 0,52% -85229 -2,43%










Washington 2012 1755396 1290670 79450 3125516 56,16% 41,29% 2,54% 464726 14,87%
Washington 2008 1750848 1229216 73152 3053216 57,34% 40,26% 2,40% 521632 17,08%
Diff: 4548 61454 6298 72300 -1,18% 1,03% 0,15% -56906 -2,22%










West Virginia 2012 234925 412406 14312 661643 35,51% 62,33% 2,16% 177481 26,82%
West Virginia 2008 303857 397466 13545 714868 42,51% 55,60% 1,89% 93609 13,09%
Diff: -68932 14940 767 -53225 -7,00% 6,73% 0,27% 83872 13,73%










Wisconsin 2012 1613950 1408745 32788 3055483 52,82% 46,11% 1,07% 205205 6,72%
Wisconsin 2008 1677211 1262393 43813 2983417 56,22% 42,31% 1,47% 414818 13,90%
Diff: -63261 146352 -11025 72066 -3,40% 3,79% -0,40% -209613 -7,19%










Wyoming 2012 * 69286 170962 8813 249061 27,82% 68,64% 3,54% 101676 40,82%
Wyoming 2008 82868 164958 5023 252849 32,77% 65,24% 1,99% 82090 32,47%
Diff: -13582 6004 3790 -3788 -4,95% 3,40% 1,55% 19586 8,36%



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