17 November 2012

Preliminary Totals IV, 11/16/2012: Obama +2.99% margin

Exactly one week ago, on 11/09/2012, with Preliminary Report I, there were 121,405,876 votes counted in the GE 2012.

Today, 11/16/2012, one week later, at around 7 PM EST, there are now 124,866,338 votes counted thus far.

That is an increase of 3,460,462 votes over one week ago.

Obama's margin average over Mitt Romney has risen from +2.52% on 11/09 to +2.99% today. That is a +0.47% margin shift in 7 days.

In 2008, between election night and the final canvasses, 5.7 million votes were added to the national total. We are already at ca +3.5 million more votes than election night 2012 right now, so the pattern from 2008 appears to be repeating itself.

The big drivers of these increases are the large Democratic states: CA, WA, OR, for instance.

On 11/17, Ohio will evaluate and count approximately 300,000 provisional ballots, per state law.
On 11/17, New Jersey will have finished its voting because of Hurricane Sandy.
There have been no updates from New York yet. New York added about 900,000 votes to the total between election night and the final canvasses.

This is all normal and part of the process. Alone, the sifting through, evaluating and either adding (or, in some cases, subtracting) write-in votes is still going on in some states, and that can add maybe another 100,000 votes to the total.

PPIC estimated that in California, 1 million less ballots would be cast in 2012 vis-a-vis 2008. Right now, the figure stands at 2.3 million less votes than in 2008. I bet that about a million votes are still out in California, so we are on track to meet the 5 million vote mark following the election night 2012 statistics, when all is said and done in early January.

The probability that President Obama will at least surpass +3.01% in margin means that election 2012 will move down on the list of the 15 leanest elections in our history from its current 10th place to probably 12th, for two candidates in the Gilded Age (1876-1896) won with margins of +3.00 (1876) and +3.01(1892), respectively.

Here the entire table. Also HERE at Google Drive. Remember, Ohio has yet to report around 300,000 provisional ballots, so the statistic from the Buckeye State is bound to change over this weekend:

USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar % USA % of NPV












2012 63274714 59542711 2048913 124866338 50,67% 47,69% 1,64% 3732003 2,99% 2012 100,00%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26% 2008 100,00%
Diff: -6224714 -407612 39384 -6592942 -2,19% 2,08% 0,11% -5817102 -4,28% Diff: 0,00%
























Alabama 2012 794428 1254214 18658 2067300 38,43% 60,67% 0,90% 459786 22,24% Alabama 2012 1,66%
Alabama 2008 813479 1266546 19794 2099819 38,74% 60,32% 0,94% 453067 21,58% Alabama 2008 1,60%
Diff: -19051 -12332 -1136 -32519 -0,31% 0,35% -0,04% 6719 0,66% Diff: 0,06%












Alaska 2012 104264 142707 11194 258165 40,39% 55,28% 4,34% 38443 14,89% Alaska 2012 0,21%
Alaska 2008 123594 193841 8762 326197 37,89% 59,42% 2,69% 70247 21,54% Alaska 2008 0,25%
Diff: -19330 -51134 2432 -68032 2,50% -4,15% 1,65% -31804 -6,64% Diff: -0,04%












Arizona 2012 967836 1184494 44750 2197080 44,05% 53,91% 2,04% 216658 9,86% Arizona 2012 1,76%
Arizona 2008 1034707 1230111 39020 2303838 44,91% 53,39% 1,69% 195404 8,48% Arizona 2008 1,75%
Diff: -66871 -45617 5730 -106758 -0,86% 0,52% 0,34% 21254 1,38% Diff: 0,01%












Arkansas 2012 392938 645236 27211 1065385 36,88% 60,56% 2,55% 252298 23,68% Arkansas 2012 0,85%
Arkansas 2008 422310 638017 26290 1086617 38,86% 58,72% 2,42% 215707 19,85% Arkansas 2008 0,83%
Diff: -29372 7219 921 -21232 -1,98% 1,85% 0,13% 36591 3,83% Diff: 0,03%












California 2012 6735667 4313133 271249 11320049 59,50% 38,10% 2,40% 2422534 21,40% California 2012 9,07%
California 2008 8274473 5011781 291011 13577265 60,94% 36,91% 2,14% 3262692 24,03% California 2008 10,33%
Diff: -1538806 -698648 -19762 -2257216 -1,44% 1,19% 0,25% -840158 -2,63% Diff: -1,26%












Colorado 2012 1270241 1146982 57963 2475186 51,32% 46,34% 2,34% 123259 4,98% Colorado 2012 1,98%
Colorado 2008 1288633 1073629 39200 2401462 53,66% 44,71% 1,63% 215004 8,95% Colorado 2008 1,83%
Diff: -18392 73353 18763 73724 -2,34% 1,63% 0,71% -91745 -3,97% Diff: 0,16%












Connecticut 2012 912531 631432 18220 1562183 58,41% 40,42% 1,17% 281099 17,99% Connecticut 2012 1,25%
Connecticut 2008 997773 629428 19592 1646793 60,59% 38,22% 1,19% 368345 22,37% Connecticut 2008 1,25%
Diff: -85242 2004 -1372 -84610 -2,18% 2,20% -0,02% -87246 -4,37% Diff: 0,00%












Delaware 2012 242584 165484 5822 413890 58,61% 39,98% 1,41% 77100 18,63% Delaware 2012 0,33%
Delaware 2008 255459 152374 4783 412616 61,91% 36,93% 1,16% 103085 24,98% Delaware 2008 0,31%
Diff: -12875 13110 1039 1274 -3,30% 3,05% 0,25% -25985 -6,36% Diff: 0,02%












DC 2012 222332 17337 4326 243995 91,12% 7,11% 1,77% 204995 84,02% DC 2012 0,20%
DC 2008 245800 17367 2686 265853 92,46% 6,53% 1,01% 228433 85,92% DC 2008 0,20%
Diff: -23468 -30 1640 -21858 -1,34% 0,57% 0,76% -23438 -1,91% Diff: -0,01%












Florida 2012 4235270 4162081 72854 8470205 50,00% 49,14% 0,86% 73189 0,86% Florida 2012 6,78%
Florida 2008 4282367 4046219 83275 8411861 50,91% 48,10% 0,99% 236148 2,81% Florida 2008 6,40%
Diff: -47097 115862 -10421 58344 -0,91% 1,04% -0,13% -162959 -1,94% Diff: 0,38%












Georgia 2012 1773827 2078688 45324 3897839 45,51% 53,33% 1,16% 304861 7,82% Georgia 2012 3,12%
Georgia 2008 1844123 2048759 39276 3932158 46,90% 52,10% 1,00% 204636 5,20% Georgia 2008 2,99%
Diff: -70296 29929 6048 -34319 -1,39% 1,23% 0,16% 100225 2,62% Diff: 0,13%












Hawaii 2012 306545 120975 7019 434539 70,54% 27,84% 1,62% 185570 42,71% Hawaii 2012 0,35%
Hawaii 2008 325871 120566 7131 453568 71,85% 26,58% 1,57% 205305 45,26% Hawaii 2008 0,35%
Diff: -19326 409 -112 -19029 -1,30% 1,26% 0,04% -19735 -2,56% Diff: 0,00%












Idaho 2012 212560 420750 18561 651871 32,61% 64,54% 2,85% 208190 31,94% Idaho 2012 0,52%
Idaho 2008 236440 403012 19002 658454 35,91% 61,21% 2,89% 166572 25,30% Idaho 2008 0,50%
Diff: -23880 17738 -441 -6583 -3,30% 3,34% -0,04% 41618 6,64% Diff: 0,02%












Illinois 2012 2964608 2104104 84917 5153629 57,52% 40,83% 1,65% 860504 16,70% Illinois 2012 4,13%
Illinois 2008 3419348 2031179 77828 5528355 61,85% 36,74% 1,41% 1388169 25,11% Illinois 2008 4,21%
Diff: -454740 72925 7089 -374726 -4,33% 4,09% 0,24% -527665 -8,41% Diff: -0,08%












Indiana 2012 1151937 1414999 50479 2617415 44,01% 54,06% 1,93% 263062 10,05% Indiana 2012 2,10%
Indiana 2008 1374039 1345648 35903 2755590 49,86% 48,83% 1,30% 28391 1,03% Indiana 2008 2,10%
Diff: -222102 69351 14576 -138175 -5,85% 5,23% 0,63% -291453 11,08% Diff: 0,00%












Iowa 2012 822259 730486 29007 1581752 51,98% 46,18% 1,83% 91773 5,80% Iowa 2012 1,27%
Iowa 2008 828940 682379 25804 1537123 53,93% 44,39% 1,68% 146561 9,53% Iowa 2008 1,17%
Diff: -6681 48107 3203 44629 -1,94% 1,79% 0,16% -54788 -3,73% Diff: 0,10%












Kansas 2012 427918 678719 24607 1131244 37,83% 60,00% 2,18% 250801 22,17% Kansas 2012 0,91%
Kansas 2008 514765 699655 23996 1238416 41,57% 56,50% 1,94% 184890 14,93% Kansas 2008 0,94%
Diff: -86847 -20936 611 -107172 -3,74% 3,50% 0,24% 65911 7,24% Diff: -0,04%












Kentucky 2012 679357 1087136 30272 1796765 37,81% 60,51% 1,68% 407779 22,70% Kentucky 2012 1,44%
Kentucky 2008 751985 1048462 27140 1827587 41,15% 57,37% 1,49% 296477 16,22% Kentucky 2008 1,39%
Diff: -72628 38674 3132 -30822 -3,34% 3,14% 0,20% 111302 6,47% Diff: 0,05%












Louisiana 2008 808496 1152460 32599 1993555 40,56% 57,81% 1,64% 343964 17,25% Louisiana 2008 1,60%
Louisiana 2012 782989 1148275 29497 1960761 39,93% 58,56% 1,50% 365286 18,63% Louisiana 2012 1,49%
Diff: 25507 4185 3102 32794 0,62% -0,75% 0,13% -21322 -1,38% Diff: 0,10%












Maine 2012 397754 290437 22547 710738 55,96% 40,86% 3,17% 107317 15,10% Maine 2012 0,57%
Maine 2008 421923 295273 13967 731163 57,71% 40,38% 1,91% 126650 17,32% Maine 2008 0,56%
Diff: -24169 -4836 8580 -20425 -1,74% 0,48% 1,26% -19333 -2,22% Diff: 0,01%












Maryland 2012 1604249 952335 55731 2612315 61,41% 36,46% 2,13% 651914 24,96% Maryland 2012 2,09%
Maryland 2008 1629467 959862 42267 2631596 61,92% 36,47% 1,61% 669605 25,44% Maryland 2008 2,00%
Diff: -25218 -7527 13464 -19281 -0,51% -0,02% 0,53% -17691 -0,49% Diff: 0,09%












Massachusetts 2012 1900575 1177370 50189 3128134 60,76% 37,64% 1,60% 723205 23,12% Massachusetts 2012 2,51%
Massachusetts 2008 1904098 1108854 68117 3081069 61,80% 35,99% 2,21% 795244 25,81% Massachusetts 2008 2,34%
Diff: -3523 68516 -17928 47065 -1,04% 1,65% -0,61% -72039 -2,69% Diff: 0,16%












Michigan 2012 2561911 2112673 43144 4717728 54,30% 44,78% 0,91% 449238 9,52% Michigan 2012 3,78%
Michigan 2008 2872579 2048639 88976 5010194 57,33% 40,89% 1,78% 823940 16,45% Michigan 2008 3,81%
Diff: -310668 64034 -45832 -292466 -3,03% 3,89% -0,86% -374702 -6,92% Diff: -0,03%












Minnesota 2012 1547668 1321575 59699 2928942 52,84% 45,12% 2,04% 226093 7,72% Minnesota 2012 2,35%
Minnesota 2008 1573354 1275409 61606 2910369 54,06% 43,82% 2,12% 297945 10,24% Minnesota 2008 2,21%
Diff: -25686 46166 -1907 18573 -1,22% 1,30% -0,08% -71852 -2,52% Diff: 0,13%












Mississippi 2012 528260 674302 11416 1213978 43,51% 55,54% 0,94% 146042 12,03% Mississippi 2012 0,97%
Mississippi 2008 554662 724597 10606 1289865 43,00% 56,18% 0,82% 169935 13,17% Mississippi 2008 0,98%
Diff: -26402 -50295 810 -75887 0,51% -0,63% 0,12% -23893 -1,14% Diff: -0,01%












Missouri 2012 1215043 1478976 50944 2744963 44,26% 53,88% 1,86% 263933 9,62% Missouri 2012 2,20%
Missouri 2008 1441911 1445814 41224 2928949 49,23% 49,36% 1,41% 3903 0,13% Missouri 2008 2,23%
Diff: -226868 33162 9720 -183986 -4,97% 4,52% 0,45% 260030 9,48% Diff: -0,03%












Montana 2012 201813 267925 14157 483895 41,71% 55,37% 2,93% 66112 13,66% Montana 2012 0,39%
Montana 2008 232159 243882 16709 492750 47,11% 49,49% 3,39% 11723 2,38% Montana 2008 0,37%
Diff: -30346 24043 -2552 -8855 -5,41% 5,87% -0,47% 54389 11,28% Diff: 0,01%












Nebraska 2012 293421 468265 13165 774851 37,87% 60,43% 1,70% 174844 22,56% Nebraska 2012 0,62%
Nebraska 2008 333319 452979 14983 801281 41,60% 56,53% 1,87% 119660 14,93% Nebraska 2008 0,61%
Diff: -39898 15286 -1818 -26430 -3,73% 3,90% -0,17% 55184 7,63% Diff: 0,01%












NE-02 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! NE-02 0,00%
2008 138809 135439 3561 277809 49,97% 48,75% 1,28% 3370 1,21% 2008 0,21%
Diff: -138809 -135439 -3561 -277809 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3370 #DIV/0! Diff: -0,21%












Nevada 2012 529005 462607 19895 1011507 52,30% 45,73% 1,97% 66398 6,56% Nevada 2012 0,81%
Nevada 2008 533736 412827 21285 967848 55,15% 42,65% 2,20% 120909 12,49% Nevada 2008 0,74%
Diff: -4731 49780 -1390 43659 -2,85% 3,08% -0,23% -54511 -5,93% Diff: 0,07%












New Hampshire 2012 369497 329910 11521 710928 51,97% 46,41% 1,62% 39587 5,57% New Hampshire 2012 0,57%
New Hampshire 2008 384826 316534 9610 710970 54,13% 44,52% 1,35% 68292 9,61% New Hampshire 2008 0,54%
Diff: -15329 13376 1911 -42 -2,15% 1,88% 0,27% -28705 -4,04% Diff: 0,03%












New Jersey 2012 1960744 1383233 34849 3378826 58,03% 40,94% 1,03% 577511 17,09% New Jersey 2012 2,71%
2008 2215422 1613207 48778 3877407 57,14% 41,61% 1,26% 602215 15,53% 2008 2,95%
Diff: -254678 -229974 -13929 -498581 0,89% -0,67% -0,23% -24704 1,56% Diff: -0,24%












New Mexico 2012 410770 333330 32263 776363 52,91% 42,93% 4,16% 77440 9,97% New Mexico 2012 0,62%
New Mexico 2008 472422 346832 10904 830158 56,91% 41,78% 1,31% 125590 15,13% New Mexico 2008 0,63%
Diff: -61652 -13502 21359 -53795 -4,00% 1,16% 2,84% -48150 -5,15% Diff: -0,01%












New York 2012 3875826 2226637 86519 6188982 62,62% 35,98% 1,40% 1649189 26,65% New York 2012 4,96%
New York 2008 4804945 2752771 83232 7640948 62,88% 36,03% 1,09% 2052174 26,86% New York 2008 5,81%
Diff: -929119 -526134 3287 -1451966 -0,26% -0,05% 0,31% -402985 -0,21% Diff: -0,86%












North Carolina 2012 2178388 2275853 44798 4499039 48,42% 50,59% 1,00% 97465 2,17% North Carolina 2012 3,60%
North Carolina 2008 2142651 2128474 39664 4310789 49,70% 49,38% 0,92% 14177 0,33% North Carolina 2008 3,28%
Diff: 35737 147379 5134 188250 -1,29% 1,21% 0,08% -111642 2,50% Diff: 0,32%












North Dakota 2012 124966 188320 9646 322932 38,70% 58,32% 2,99% 63354 19,62% North Dakota 2012 0,26%
North Dakota 2008 141403 168887 7448 317738 44,50% 53,15% 2,34% 27484 8,65% North Dakota 2008 0,24%
Diff: -16437 19433 2198 5194 -5,81% 5,16% 0,64% 35870 10,97% Diff: 0,02%












Ohio 2012 2697260 2593779 88051 5379090 50,14% 48,22% 1,64% 103481 1,92% Ohio 2012 4,31%
Ohio 2008 2940044 2677820 103951 5721815 51,38% 46,80% 1,82% 262224 4,58% Ohio 2008 4,35%
Diff: -242784 -84041 -15900 -342725 -1,24% 1,42% -0,18% -158743 -2,66% Diff: -0,04%












Oklahoma 2012 443547 891325 0 1334872 33,23% 66,77% 0,00% 447778 33,54% Oklahoma 2012 1,07%
Oklahoma 2008 502496 960165 0 1462661 34,35% 65,65% 0,00% 457669 31,29% Oklahoma 2008 1,11%
Diff: -58949 -68840 0 -127789 -1,13% 1,13% 0,00% -9891 2,25% Diff: -0,04%












Oregon 2012 939391 730060 60355 1729806 54,31% 42,20% 3,49% 209331 12,10% Oregon 2012 1,39%
Oregon 2008 1037291 738475 52098 1827864 56,75% 40,40% 2,85% 298816 16,35% Oregon 2008 1,39%
Diff: -97900 -8415 8257 -98058 -2,44% 1,80% 0,64% -89485 -4,25% Diff: -0,01%












Pennsylvania 2012 2930447 2646717 70060 5647224 51,89% 46,87% 1,24% 283730 5,02% Pennsylvania 2012 4,52%
Pennsylvania 2008 3276363 2655885 83228 6015476 54,47% 44,15% 1,38% 620478 10,31% Pennsylvania 2008 4,58%
Diff: -345916 -9168 -13168 -368252 -2,57% 2,72% -0,14% -336748 -5,29% Diff: -0,05%












Rhode Island 2012 279675 157204 9168 446047 62,70% 35,24% 2,06% 122471 27,46% Rhode Island 2012 0,36%
Rhode Island 2008 296571 165391 9804 471766 62,86% 35,06% 2,08% 131180 27,81% Rhode Island 2008 0,36%
Diff: -16896 -8187 -636 -25719 -0,16% 0,19% -0,02% -8709 -0,35% Diff: 0,00%












South Carolina 2012 865941 1071645 26532 1964118 44,09% 54,56% 1,35% 205704 10,47% South Carolina 2012 1,57%
South Carolina 2008 862449 1034896 23624 1920969 44,90% 53,87% 1,23% 172447 8,98% South Carolina 2008 1,46%
Diff: 3492 36749 2908 43149 -0,81% 0,69% 0,12% 33257 1,50% Diff: 0,11%












South Dakota 2012 145039 210610 8166 363815 39,87% 57,89% 2,24% 65571 18,02% South Dakota 2012 0,29%
South Dakota 2008 170924 203054 7997 381975 44,75% 53,16% 2,09% 32130 8,41% South Dakota 2008 0,29%
Diff: -25885 7556 169 -18160 -4,88% 4,73% 0,15% 33441 9,61% Diff: 0,00%












Tennessee 2012 959054 1459965 35451 2454470 39,07% 59,48% 1,44% 500911 20,41% Tennessee 2012 1,97%
Tennessee 2008 1087437 1479178 35367 2601982 41,79% 56,85% 1,36% 391741 15,06% Tennessee 2008 1,98%
Diff: -128383 -19213 84 -147512 -2,72% 2,63% 0,09% 109170 5,35% Diff: -0,01%












Texas 2012 3294482 4555857 114329 7964668 41,36% 57,20% 1,44% 1261375 15,84% Texas 2012 6,38%
Texas 2008 3528633 4479328 79247 8087208 43,63% 55,39% 0,98% 950695 11,76% Texas 2008 6,15%
Diff: -234151 76529 35082 -122540 -2,27% 1,81% 0,46% 310680 4,08% Diff: 0,23%












Utah 2012 229463 671747 22091 923301 24,85% 72,75% 2,39% 442284 47,90% Utah 2012 0,74%
Utah 2008 327670 596030 33781 957481 34,22% 62,25% 3,53% 268360 28,03% Utah 2008 0,73%
Diff: -98207 75717 -11690 -34180 -9,37% 10,51% -1,14% 173924 19,87% Diff: 0,01%












Vermont 2012 199239 92698 7353 299290 66,57% 30,97% 2,46% 106541 35,60% Vermont 2012 0,24%
Vermont 2008 219262 98974 6810 325046 67,46% 30,45% 2,10% 120288 37,01% Vermont 2008 0,25%
Diff: -20023 -22206 543 -41686 -0,89% 0,52% 0,36% 2183 -1,41% Diff: -0,01%












Virginia 2012 1971777 1822466 60135 3854378 51,16% 47,28% 1,56% 149311 3,87% Virginia 2012 3,09%
Virginia 2008 1959532 1725005 38723 3723260 52,63% 46,33% 1,04% 234527 6,30% Virginia 2008 2,83%
Diff: 12245 97461 21412 131118 -1,47% 0,95% 0,52% -85216 -2,43% Diff: 0,25%












Washington 2012 1675750 1251359 74665 3001774 55,83% 41,69% 2,49% 424391 14,14% Washington 2012 2,40%
Washington 2008 1750848 1229216 73152 3053216 57,34% 40,26% 2,40% 521632 17,08% Washington 2008 2,32%
Diff: -75098 22143 1513 -51442 -1,52% 1,43% 0,09% -97241 -2,95% Diff: 0,08%












West Virginia 2012 234925 412406 14312 661643 35,51% 62,33% 2,16% 177481 26,82% West Virginia 2012 0,53%
West Virginia 2008 303857 397466 13545 714868 42,51% 55,60% 1,89% 93609 13,09% West Virginia 2008 0,54%
Diff: -68932 14940 767 -53225 -7,00% 6,73% 0,27% 83872 13,73% Diff: -0,01%












Wisconsin 2012 1613950 1408746 33917 3056613 52,80% 46,09% 1,11% 205204 6,71% Wisconsin 2012 2,45%
Wisconsin 2008 1677211 1262393 43813 2983417 56,22% 42,31% 1,47% 414818 13,90% Wisconsin 2008 2,27%
Diff: -63261 146353 -9896 73196 -3,42% 3,77% -0,36% -209614 -7,19% Diff: 0,18%












Wyoming 2012 69286 170962 8813 249061 27,82% 68,64% 3,54% 101676 40,82% Wyoming 2012 0,20%
Wyoming 2008 82868 164958 5023 252849 32,77% 65,24% 1,99% 82090 32,47% Wyoming 2008 0,19%
Diff: -13582 6004 3790 -3788 -4,95% 3,40% 1,55% 19586 8,36% Diff: 0,01%


You will notice from the table that CO, DE, FL, LA, MA, MN, NC, ND, SC, VA and WI (11 states) all have surpassed their vote totals from 2008. Right now, NH is only 42 votes under it's 2008 total. GA is only about 30,000 under its 2008 total, Maryland is only about 19,000 under - so there are still some more state which, when the last votes are counted, may also surpass their 2008 record. Notice the 5 of the 6 most hotly contested states brought out more voters than in 2008: CO, FL, NC, VA and WI.

OH stands out as an exception, and even if every  provisional ballot is accepted and counted, it looks as if Ohio will not surpass its 2008 statistic.

But there is no doubt that where candidates sink a lot of time and money and campaign stops into a state, more people tend to come out and vote.

The next preliminary totals report comes out later next week.

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