12 November 2012

Preliminary Totals III, 11/12/2012: REDUX 2004, in reverse colors? Gilded Age II?

Preliminary Totals III, 11/12/2012: 
REDUX 2004, in reverse colors? Gilded Age II?


A lot of numbers changed over the weekend, just as predicted.

We went from 121,405,876  votes on 11/09 to 122,872,906 votes as of Monday morning. That is an addition of 1,467,030 votes since Friday, and +454,714 since Preliminary report II on Saturday. At his rate, no doubt, about 4 million more votes are going to come in.

Here the current figures:

USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar % USA











2012 62126373 58797851 1948682 122872906 50,56% 47,85% 1,59% 3328522 2,71% 2012
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26% 2008
Diff: -7373055 -1152472 -60847 -8586374 -2,31% 2,25% 0,06% -6220583 -4,56% Diff:












President Obama's national winning margin percentage has again moved up, from +2.65% on Saturday to +2.71% today. Now, that may not seem like a lot, but considering it inched up like this almost every day until the final canvasses in 2008, then I am pretty sure that the President is going to come over the +3 mark and this election will move from it's current place (10th) to maybe 13th or 14th. 

Unbelievably, we have three close elections in the past that were won in the low +3 range: Tilden +3.00% in 1876, Cleveland +3.01% in 1892 and Wilson +3.12% in 1916. That is a range of just 0.12%, folks!  To get over +3.01% and move from place 10 to place 12, Obama only needs to add +0.32% to his margin, and considering the number of votes to still come in from California, also the votes from New Jersey and New York (because of Hurricane "Sandy"), this is extremely likely to happen.

These numbers are absolutely sure to change again, especially in this week due to the mandatory counting of provisional ballots in a numbers of states, most importantly, Ohio.

Here again is the updated version of the table of the 15 closest elections in our history, with the newest Obama / Romney numbers in the mix:



Rank
Year
DEM %
GOP %
Other %
Margin %
DEM EC / %
GOP EC / %
EC Margin / Margin %
NPV winner
EC winner
1
1880
48.22%
48.31%
3.47%
GOP +0.10%
155 / 42.0%
214 / 58.0%
GOP +59 / GOP +16.0%
Garfield
Garfield
2
1960
49.72%
49.55%
0.74%
DEM +0.16%
303 / 56.4%
219 / 40.8%
DEM + 84 / DEM +15.6%
Kennedy
Kennedy
3
2000
48.38%
47.87%
4.25%
DEM +0.52%
266 / 49.4%
271 / 50.4%
GOP +5 / GOP +1.0%
Gore
Bush, Jr.
4
1884
48.84%
48.25%
2.87%
DEM +0.57%
219 / 54.6%
182 / 45.4%
DEM + 37 / DEM +9.2%
Cleveland
Cleveland
5
1968
42.72%
43.42%
13.86%
GOP +0.70%
191 / 35.5%
301 / 55.9%
GOP +59 / GOP +20.4%
Nixon
Nixon
6
1888
48.63%
47.80%
3.57%
DEM +0.83%
168 / 41.9%
233 / 58.1%
GOP +5 / GOP +16.2%
Cleveland
Harrison
7
1844
49.54%
48.09%
2.37%
DEM +1.45%
170 / 61.8%
105 / 38.2%
DEM +65 / DEM +23.6%
Polk
Polk
8
1976
50.08%
48.02%
1.90%
DEM +2.06%
297 / 55.2%
240 / 44.6%
DEM + 57 / DEM +10.6%
Carter
Carter
9
2004
48.27%
50.73%
1.00%
GOP +2.46%
252 / 46.7%
286 / 53.2%
GOP +34 / GOP +6.5%
Bush
Bush
10
2012
50.56%
47.85%
1.59%
DEM +2.71%
332 / 61.7%
206 / 38.3%
DEM +126 / DEM +23.4%
Obama
Obama
11
1876
50.92%
47.92%
1.16%
DEM +3.00%
184 / 49.9%
185 / 50.1%
GOP +1 / GOP +0.2%
Tilden
Hayes
12
1892
46.02%
43.01%
10.97%
DEM +3.01%
277 / 62.4%
145 / 34.7%
DEM + 132/ DEM +27.7%
Cleveland
Cleveland
13
1916
49.24%
46.12%
4.64%
DEM +3.12%
277 / 52.2%
254 / 47.8%
DEM + 23 / DEM +27.7%
Wilson
Wilson
14
1896
46.71%
51.02%
2.27%
GOP +4.31%
176 / 39.4%
271 / 60.6%
GOP +95 / GOP +21.4%
McKinley
McKinley
15
1948
49.55%
45.07%
5.38%
DEM +4.48%
303 / 57.1%
189 / 35.6%
DEM + 114 / DEM +21.5%
Truman
Truman


I would like to show you something very interesting. First of all, since the GOP entered the Electoral College in 1856, no contest has been won on the national level between +1%-2%. They were all won either with less than 1% or starting at slightly more than 2%. So, 1844 (James Polk, who I bet no one remembers) is not very pertinent to this statistic, since the GOP did not exist at that point in time. If we remove 1844 and everything at +4 and above (which is really not close, anyway), then:

Rank
Year
DEM %
GOP %
Other %
Margin %
DEM EC / %
GOP EC / %
EC Margin / Margin %
NPV winner
EC winner
1
1880
48.22%
48.31%
3.47%
GOP +0.10%
155 / 42.0%
214 / 58.0%
GOP +59 / GOP +16.0%
Garfield
Garfield
2
1960
49.72%
49.55%
0.74%
DEM +0.16%
303 / 56.4%
219 / 40.8%
DEM + 84 / DEM +15.6%
Kennedy
Kennedy
3
2000
48.38%
47.87%
4.25%
DEM +0.52%
266 / 49.4%
271 / 50.4%
GOP +5 / GOP +1.0%
Gore
Bush, Jr.
4
1884
48.84%
48.25%
2.87%
DEM +0.57%
219 / 54.6%
182 / 45.4%
DEM + 37 / DEM +9.2%
Cleveland
Cleveland
5
1968
42.72%
43.42%
13.86%
GOP +0.70%
191 / 35.5%
301 / 55.9%
GOP +59 / GOP +20.4%
Nixon
Nixon
6
1888
48.63%
47.80%
3.57%
DEM +0.83%
168 / 41.9%
233 / 58.1%
GOP +5 / GOP +16.2%
Cleveland
Harrison
7
1976
50.08%
48.02%
1.90%
DEM +2.06%
297 / 55.2%
240 / 44.6%
DEM + 57 / DEM +10.6%
Carter
Carter
8
2004
48.27%
50.73%
1.00%
GOP +2.46%
252 / 46.7%
286 / 53.2%
GOP +34 / GOP +6.5%
Bush
Bush
9
2012
50.56%
47.85%
1.59%
DEM +2.71%
332 / 61.7%
206 / 38.3%
DEM +126 / DEM +23.4%
Obama
Obama
10
1876
50.92%
47.92%
1.16%
DEM +3.00%
184 / 49.9%
185 / 50.1%
GOP +1 / GOP +0.2%
Tilden
Hayes
11
1892
46.02%
43.01%
10.97%
DEM +3.01%
277 / 62.4%
145 / 34.7%
DEM + 132/ DEM +27.7%
Cleveland
Cleveland
12
1916
49.24%
46.12%
4.64%
DEM +3.12%
277 / 52.2%
254 / 47.8%
DEM + 23 / DEM +27.7%
Wilson
Wilson

Notice anything about this? 

Of the 12 closest elections, 5 were consecutive cycles, from 1876-1892, a span of 16 years. I highlighed those cycles in orange. 

The period from around 1876 up to around 1893 has been called the "Gilded Age", which among other things was marked in our electoral politics by closely locked elections and a bitterly partisan and pretty much equally divided electorate. This was an era of much growth but also of much political instability - the resurgence of the South, conflict over the speed of Reconstruction in the South, conflict over the gold-vs-silver standards for money, etc.. And there were numerous smaller economic recessions during this time.

3 of the 12 closest election cycles were from within the Vietnam/Watergate era, from 1960-1976, a span of 16 years. It goes without saying that this was a period of great political instability.  I highlighted those cycles in green.

And 3 of the 12 closest election cycles were in this century (2000, 2004 and 2012), a span of 12 years. Not only that, every single election since 1988 (7 cycles now) was won by single digit margins. From 1876-1900 (7 cycles), every single election in that time was won by single digit margins, just as was the case during the Gilded Age.

There are some very distinct parallels between this time in our history and the Gilded Age from the late 1800s: closely locked elections and a bitterly partisan and pretty much equally divided electorate, economic recessions (2 of them), and war. Sound familiar?

I am beginning to think that we are now in "Gilded Age II".

What about 2004 REDUX? What does that mean?

Well, in 2004, we had the re-election of a President whose approval numbers were mostly justunder 50, at a time of war, where initiatives were on many state ballots that were strategically placed there to encourage the President's base to come out and vote.

In 2012, we had the re-election of a President whose approval numbers were mostly just under 50, at a time of war, where initiatives were on many state ballots that were strategically placed there to encourage the President's base to come out and vote.

In 2004, three states shifted sides: President Bush picked-up Iowa and New Mexico, while challenger John Kerry picked-up New Hampshire.

In 2012, two states shifted sides: challenger Mitt Romney picked-up North Carolina and Indiana, while President Obama picked-up 0 states.

It is fascinating that the pick-up lists from 2004 and 2012 have no common states, although 4 of these five states were highly competitive in both 2008 and 2012.

George W. Bush won re-election in 2004 by a lean +2.46% national winning margin and also secured a majority win.

Barack Obama won re-election in 2012 by a lean +2.71% (current, at this time, subject to change) national winning margin and also secured a majority win.

If you leave out 2000 and 2008 for a second and only compare re-election to re-election, then since 2004, somewhat over 5% of the electorate shifted BLUE, technically speaking.

Right now, the total votes for both 2004 and 2012 are very close to each other. But this might change.

So, you can see, there are lots of very obvious parallels between 2012 and 2004. And it is yet another indication of how bitterly divided our partisan politics are.  It has now been 28 years, or more than one generation, since we have seen a true landslide in the National Popular Vote (Reagan, +18.22%, 1984)

In many battleground reports, also in the two Red State Reports I published throughout October, I noted many times over that Mitt Romney would not only need wins in all of the Red States, but he would need wins much closer to Bush's margins from 2004 than McCain's margins from 2008 in order to get at or over the 50 mark, due to the enormous margins for Obama expected out of California, New York and Illinois.

So, how did Mitt Romney do in the Red-States  vis-a-vis George W. Bush from 2004?
How did Barack Obama do in the Blue-States vis-a-vis John Kerry from 2004?

Obviously, it goes without saying that of the 7 Obama pick-ups from 2008 that Mitt Romney was unable to peel-off in 2012 (NM, NV, CO, IA, OH, VA and FL), Mitt Romney automatically did worse than Bush, since Bush won all of those states and Romney did not. 

But of the other 2 Obama pick-ups from 2008 (IN, NC) that Romney did recapture for the GOP, we can make some solid comparisons, and in both cases, he still did worse than Bush.

First, the complete table, and then some maps, to give the data an easier "look":


Rank '12 State Margin '12 EV 2012
Rank '04 State Margin - '04 Diff: '12/'04

1 DC 84,02 3
1 DC 79,84 4,18

2 HI 42,71 4
11 HI 8,74 33,97

3 VT 35,85 3
4 VT 20,14 15,71

4 RI 27,42 4
3 RI 20,75 6,67

5 NY 26,65 29
5 NY 18,29 8,36

6 MD 24,70 10
6 MD 12,98 11,72

7 MA 23,12 11
2 MA 25,16 -2,04

8 CA 20,58 55
9 CA 9,95 10,63

9 DE 18,62 3
12 DE 7,59 11,03

10 CT 17,99 7
7 CT 10,37 7,62

11 NJ 17,09 14
14 NJ 6,68 10,41

12 IL 16,67 20
8 IL 10,34 6,33

13 ME 15,10 4
10 ME 9,00 6,10

14 WA 14,17 12
13 WA 7,58 6,59

15 OR 11,74 7
15 OR 4,16 7,58

16 NM 9,88 5
30 NM 0,79 10,67

17 MI 9,52 16
17 MI 3,42 6,10

18 MN 7,72 10
16 MN 3,48 4,24

19 WI 6,71 10
20 WI 0,38 6,33

20 NV 6,56 6
28 NV 2,59 3,97

21 NH 5,77 4
19 NH 1,37 4,40

22 IA 5,65 6
31 IA 0,67 6,32

23 PA 5,41 20
18 PA 2,50 2,91

24 CO 4,80 9
27 CO 4,67 9,47

25 VA 3,09 13
24 VA 8,20 11,29

26 OH 1,92 18
29 OH 2,11 4,03

27 FL 0,87 29
26 FL 5,01 5,88













USA 2,71


USA 7,26 -4,55












Rank '12 State Margin '12 EV 2012
Rank '04 State Margin - '04 Diff: '12/'04

24 NC 2,17 15
21 NC 12,43 -10,26

23 GA 7,83 16
17 GA 16,60 -8,77

22 MO 9,62 10
25 MO 7,20 2,42

21 AZ 10,32 11
22 AZ 10,47 -0,15

20 IN 10,46 11
12 IN 20,68 -10,22

19 SC 10,69 9
16 SC 17,08 -6,39

18 MS 12,03 6
15 MS 19,69 -7,66

17 AK 13,26 3
8 AK 25,55 -12,29

16 MT 13,99 3
13 MT 20,50 -6,51

15 TX 15,84 38
10 TX 22,86 -7,02

14 LA 17,25 8
18 LA 14,51 2,74

13 SD 18,02 3
11 SD 21,47 -3,45

12 ND 19,62 3
6 ND 27,36 -7,74

11 TN 20,41 11
19 TN 14,27 6,14

10 KS 22,17 6
9 KS 25,38 -3,21

9 AL 22,22 9
7 AL 25,62 -3,40

8 NE* 22,63 5
4 NE* 33,22 -10,59

7 KY 22,70 8
14 KY 19,86 2,84

6 AR 23,69 6
23 AR 9,76 13,93

5 WV 26,82 5
20 WV 12,86 13,96

4 ID 31,94 4
3 ID 38,12 -6,18

3 OK 33,54 7
5 OK 31,14 2,40

2 WY 41,29 3
2 WY 39,79 1,50

1 UT 47,90 6
1 UT 45,54 2,36




The current margins for 2012 are there, and the already "fixed-in-stone" margins from 2004 are there. This is a state-to-state table, so you see that the partisan ranking numbers for 2004 are pretty much all over the  place in relation to 2012. Not in spite of that, interestingly enough, 7 states had the same partisan ranking in 2012 as they did in 2004:

DC (1), NY (5), MD (6), OR (15) and MI (17) for the Democrats, plus UT (1) and WY (2) for the Republicans.

Obviously, any + value for one party means a - value for the other, and visa-versa.

For instance, in Kentucky, Mitt Romney did better on percentage margin than George W. Bush from 2004 by +2.84%, which automatically means that Barack Obama did worse on percentage margin for that same state than John Kerry by -2.84%.

So, of the 24 states that Romney won, he did better than Bush in 9 states and did worse than Bush in 15. Two of those values (WY and AZ) are very nominal values as in both cases, he actually came very close to Bush's margins, WY from above and AZ from below.  This is still an improvement from 2008, where McCain improved on the Bush margins in only 5 states.

Here is how the table looks when re-ordered for Romney margins vs. Bush margins (partisan shift, or "swing"), in descending order (see: "Diff: '12/'04"):


Rank '12 State Margin '12 EV 2012
Rank '04 State Margin - '04 Diff: '12/'04

5 WV 26,82 5
20 WV 12,86 13,96

6 AR 23,69 6
23 AR 9,76 13,93

11 TN 20,41 11
19 TN 14,27 6,14

7 KY 22,70 8
14 KY 19,86 2,84

14 LA 17,25 8
18 LA 14,51 2,74

22 MO 9,62 10
25 MO 7,20 2,42

3 OK 33,54 7
5 OK 31,14 2,40

1 UT 47,90 6
1 UT 45,54 2,36

2 WY 41,29 3
2 WY 39,79 1,50

21 AZ 10,32 11
22 AZ 10,47 -0,15

10 KS 22,17 6
9 KS 25,38 -3,21

9 AL 22,22 9
7 AL 25,62 -3,40

13 SD 18,02 3
11 SD 21,47 -3,45

4 ID 31,94 4
3 ID 38,12 -6,18

19 SC 10,69 9
16 SC 17,08 -6,39

16 MT 13,99 3
13 MT 20,50 -6,51

15 TX 15,84 38
10 TX 22,86 -7,02

18 MS 12,03 6
15 MS 19,69 -7,66

12 ND 19,62 3
6 ND 27,36 -7,74

23 GA 7,83 16
17 GA 16,60 -8,77

20 IN 10,46 11
12 IN 20,68 -10,22

24 NC 2,17 15
21 NC 12,43 -10,26

8 NE* 22,63 5
4 NE* 33,22 -10,59

17 AK 13,26 3
8 AK 25,55 -12,29

On a map, it would look like this:

Strong partisan shift ("swing") toward Romney over Bush, +10 or more: DARKEST RED
Moderate partisan shift ("swing") toward Romney over Bush, +5 up to +10: MIDDLE RED
Lean partisan shift ("swing") toward Romney over Bush, +0.1 up to +5: LIGHT RED
Lean partisan shift ("swing") toward Obama over Kerry, +0.1 up to +5: LIGHT BLUE
Moderate partisan shift ("swing") toward Obama over Kerry, +5 up to +10: MIDDLE BLUE
Strong partisan shift ("swing") toward Obama over Kerry, +10 or more: DARKEST BLUE

So, in this case, blue does not indicate a state that Obama won, it indicates a partisan shift TOWARD the Democratic Party, 2012 over 2004:



Same thing for President Obama:


Rank '12 State Margin '12 EV 2012
Rank '04 State Margin - '04 Diff: '12/'04

2 HI 42,71 4
11 HI 8,74 33,97

3 VT 35,85 3
4 VT 20,14 15,71

6 MD 24,70 10
6 MD 12,98 11,72

25 VA 3,09 13
24 VA 8,20 11,29

9 DE 18,62 3
12 DE 7,59 11,03

16 NM 9,88 5
30 NM 0,79 10,67

8 CA 20,58 55
9 CA 9,95 10,63

11 NJ 17,09 14
14 NJ 6,68 10,41

24 CO 4,80 9
27 CO 4,67 9,47

5 NY 26,65 29
5 NY 18,29 8,36

10 CT 17,99 7
7 CT 10,37 7,62

15 OR 11,74 7
15 OR 4,16 7,58

4 RI 27,42 4
3 RI 20,75 6,67

14 WA 14,17 12
13 WA 7,58 6,59

12 IL 16,67 20
8 IL 10,34 6,33

19 WI 6,71 10
20 WI 0,38 6,33

22 IA 5,65 6
31 IA 0,67 6,32

13 ME 15,10 4
10 ME 9,00 6,10

17 MI 9,52 16
17 MI 3,42 6,10

27 FL 0,87 29
26 FL 5,01 5,88

21 NH 5,77 4
19 NH 1,37 4,40

18 MN 7,72 10
16 MN 3,48 4,24

1 DC 84,02 3
1 DC 79,84 4,18

26 OH 1,92 18
29 OH 2,11 4,03

20 NV 6,56 6
28 NV 2,59 3,97

23 PA 5,41 20
18 PA 2,50 2,91

7 MA 23,12 11
2 MA 25,16 -2,04

On a map, it would look like this:

Strong partisan shift ("swing") toward Obama over Kerry, +10 or more: DARKEST BLUE
Moderate partisan shift ("swing") toward Obama over Kerry, +5 up to +10: MIDDLE BLUE
Lean partisan shift ("swing") toward Obama over Kerry, +0.1 up to +5: LIGHT BLUE
Lean partisan shift ("swing") toward Romney over Bush, +0.1 up to +5: LIGHT RED
Moderate partisan shift ("swing") toward Romney over Bush, +5 up to +10: MIDDLE RED
Strong partisan shift ("swing") toward Romney over Bush, +10 or more: DARKEST RED

So, in this case, red does not indicate a state that Romney won, it indicates a partisan shift TOWARD the Republican Party, 2012 over 2004:





Yes, indeed, the bulwark BLUE state of Massachusetts actually "swung" toward the Republican Party when you compare the results of 2012 to 2008. But, as was also the case with Idaho from the Romney map above this one, a slight swing to the other party doesn't make the state any less of a landslide state.

Now, the two maps, apart from each other look a little like gobbledy-gook, but when you combine them:


a pattern emerges:

In the upper Northwest of the continental USA (WA, OR, ID, MT, ND), regardless of the winner from 2012, all of those states had a moderate partisan shift TOWARD the Democratic Party (+5 to +10 in margin shift, or "swing"). Ditto for most of the South along the Coast (TX, MS, GA, FL, SC).

In the Midwest, leading up to the East, we see a mix of lean to moderate swing toward the Democratic party. No doubt the Auto-Bailout of 2009 played a role in the look of the midwest right now.

But the most telling shifts were along the Atlantic Seaboard (NC, VA, MD, DE, NJ) - all strong "swings" TOWARD the Democratic Party, 2012 over 2004.

To contrast, in almost all of Appalachia intersecting the "Bible Belt", we see a swing TOWARD the Republican Party, 2012 over 2004 (WV, KY, TN, AR, MO, LA and OK). Most notably,in WV and AR, which were two of the most reliably Democratic states in the Union just 16 years ago.

We see a strong Democratic shift still in Indiana, which probably requires an explanation:

In order to Obama to win IN  in 2008, there was a swing of +21.73%, the largest cross-partisan swing of 2008. That brought him to a +1.03% margin in the Hoosier State. Now, IN was not even in play in 2012 and Mitt Romney won it easily, by +10.46%, a really good landslide. Unfortunately, that was still only almost exactly half of Bush's +20.68% margin from 2004, which means that the state still "swung" 10.22 points TOWARD the Democratic party. In other words, a lot of the GOP electorate flipped-back to the GOP in 2012, but not all of it. If you empty a glass of water and then fill it only half-way up again, then the glass is still only half-way full...

The slow "blueification" of Indiana, as with Ohio, cannot be denied, but what it probably means is that IN will become more like a +8 to +10 GOP state than a +15 to +20 state. Still GOP, no matter how you slice it.

The swing that surprised me, and I bet, a lot of other people, was Alaska, which was never polled. Not only did Romney do worse in Alaska than McCain from 2008, he also did worse than Bush from 2004. In fact, Romney's +13.26% win in "The Last Frontier" was the 5th leanest win in the state's 14 cycle history, after 1960, 1968 and 1992. Whether this has anything to do with former Governor Sarah Palin is hard to say, for the statistics for AK for 2008 and 2004 were actually very similar to each other, so it is not as if the Palin candidacy from 2008 suddenly shot the state up in the rankings in 2008. Perhaps it is just because the state was pretty much ignored.

So, did Romney meet his goal of returning to the Bush margins from 2004? In 15 of 24 CORE GOP states, the answer is: no, he did not. Had he done this, then Obama would not be winning by +3 million raw votes right now.

One more point for today: a map like this is also very telling evidence that there was not election fraud in key states to swing the election to Obama, as some on the Right are already muttering. Were that the case, then a composite swing map like the one above would not appear, one that shows a pretty uniform swing toward the Democratic Party in 41 of  51 "states". 

And the worst news for the GOP: when you compare 2012 to 2004: of the ten states that did swing more GOP over 2004, they comprised only 75 electors, 11 of which are from Massachusetts, which is obviously a non-competitive Democratic state in reality.

So, on the outside, 2004 and 2012 look a lot like each other, only in reverse colors. And on the inside, we see hard evidence of a more solid DEM win in 2012 than we saw for a GOP win in 2004.

Here the entire table of totals, as of 10/12, AM:

USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar % USA % of NPV growth rate HuffPo links Politico Links















2012 62126373 58797851 1948682 122872906 50,56% 47,85% 1,59% 3328522 2,71% 2012 100,37%
USA Huffpo Link USA Politico Link
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26% 2008 100,00%


Diff: -7373055 -1152472 -60847 -8586374 -2,31% 2,25% 0,06% -6220583 -4,56% Diff: 0,37% -6,53%































Alabama 2012 793620 1252453 18626 2064699 38,44% 60,66% 0,90% 458833 22,22% Alabama 2012 1,69%
AL HuffPo Link AL Politico Link
Alabama 2008 813479 1266546 19794 2099819 38,74% 60,32% 0,94% 453067 21,58% Alabama 2008 1,60%


Diff: -19859 -14093 -1168 -35120 -0,30% 0,34% -0,04% 5766 0,65% Diff: 0,09% -1,67%
















Alaska 2012 91696 121234 9791 222721 41,17% 54,43% 4,40% 29538 13,26% Alaska 2012 0,18%
AK HuffPo Link AK Politico Link
Alaska 2008 123594 193841 8762 326197 37,89% 59,42% 2,69% 70247 21,54% Alaska 2008 0,25%


Diff: -31898 -72607 1029 -103476 3,28% -4,99% 1,71% -40709 -8,27% Diff: -0,07% -31,72%
















Arizona 2012 841607 1038907 31428 1911942 44,02% 54,34% 1,64% 197300 10,32% Arizona 2012 1,56%
AZ HuffPo Link AZ Politico Link
Arizona 2008 1034707 1230111 39020 2303838 44,91% 53,39% 1,69% 195404 8,48% Arizona 2008 1,75%


Diff: -193100 -191204 -7592 -391896 -0,89% 0,94% -0,05% 1896 1,84% Diff: -0,19% -17,01%
















Arkansas 2012 391505 643048 27091 1061644 36,88% 60,57% 2,55% 251543 23,69% Arkansas 2012 0,87%
AR HuffPo Link AR Politico Link
Arkansas 2008 422310 638017 26290 1086617 38,86% 58,72% 2,42% 215707 19,85% Arkansas 2008 0,83%


Diff: -30805 5031 801 -24973 -1,99% 1,86% 0,13% 35836 3,84% Diff: 0,04% -2,30%
















California 2012 6060390 3950267 242219 10252876 59,11% 38,53% 2,36% 2110123 20,58% California 2012 8,38%
CA HuffPo Link CA Politico Link
California 2008 8274473 5011781 291011 13577265 60,94% 36,91% 2,14% 3262692 24,03% California 2008 10,33%


Diff: -2214083 -1061514 -48792 -3324389 -1,83% 1,62% 0,22% -1152569 -3,45% Diff: -1,95% -24,48%
















Colorado 2012 1252679 1135403 56930 2445012 51,23% 46,44% 2,33% 117276 4,80% Colorado 2012 2,00%
CO HuffPo Link CO Politico Link
Colorado 2008 1288633 1073629 39200 2401462 53,66% 44,71% 1,63% 215004 8,95% Colorado 2008 1,83%


Diff: -35954 61774 17730 43550 -2,43% 1,73% 0,70% -97728 -4,16% Diff: 0,17% 1,81%
















Connecticut 2012 912531 631432 18220 1562183 58,41% 40,42% 1,17% 281099 17,99% Connecticut 2012 1,28%
CT HuffPo Link CT Politico Link
Connecticut 2008 997773 629428 19592 1646793 60,59% 38,22% 1,19% 368345 22,37% Connecticut 2008 1,25%


Diff: -85242 2004 -1372 -84610 -2,18% 2,20% -0,02% -87246 -4,37% Diff: 0,02% -5,14%
















Delaware 2012 242547 165476 5821 413844 58,61% 39,99% 1,41% 77071 18,62% Delaware 2012 0,34%
DE HuffPo Link DE Politico Link
Delaware 2008 255459 152374 4783 412616 61,91% 36,93% 1,16% 103085 24,98% Delaware 2008 0,31%


Diff: -12912 13102 1038 1228 -3,30% 3,06% 0,25% -26014 -6,36% Diff: 0,02% 0,30%
















DC 2012 222332 17337 4326 243995 91,12% 7,11% 1,77% 204995 84,02% DC 2012 0,20%
DC HuffPo Link DC Politico Link
DC 2008 245800 17367 2686 265853 92,46% 6,53% 1,01% 228433 85,92% DC 2008 0,20%


Diff: -23468 -30 1640 -21858 -1,34% 0,57% 0,76% -23438 -1,91% Diff: 0,00% -8,22%
















Florida 2012 4236032 4162174 72582 8470788 50,01% 49,14% 0,86% 73858 0,87% Florida 2012 6,92%
FL HuffPo Link FL Politico Link
Florida 2008 4282367 4046219 83275 8411861 50,91% 48,10% 0,99% 236148 2,81% Florida 2008 6,40%


Diff: -46335 115955 -10693 58927 -0,90% 1,03% -0,13% -162290 -1,94% Diff: 0,52% 0,70%
















Georgia 2012 1771564 2077514 56264 3905342 45,36% 53,20% 1,44% 305950 7,83% Georgia 2012 3,19%
GA HuffPo Link GA Politico Link
Georgia 2008 1844123 2048759 39276 3932158 46,90% 52,10% 1,00% 204636 5,20% Georgia 2008 2,99%


Diff: -72559 28755 16988 -26816 -1,54% 1,09% 0,44% 101314 2,63% Diff: 0,20% -0,68%
















Hawaii 2012 306545 120975 7019 434539 70,54% 27,84% 1,62% 185570 42,71% Hawaii 2012 0,35%
HI Huffpo Link HI Politico Link
Hawaii 2008 325871 120566 7131 453568 71,85% 26,58% 1,57% 205305 45,26% Hawaii 2008 0,35%


Diff: -19326 409 -112 -19029 -1,30% 1,26% 0,04% -19735 -2,56% Diff: 0,01% -4,20%
















Idaho 2012 212560 420750 18561 651871 32,61% 64,54% 2,85% 208190 31,94% Idaho 2012 0,53%
ID HuffPo Link ID Politico Link
Idaho 2008 236440 403012 19002 658454 35,91% 61,21% 2,89% 166572 25,30% Idaho 2008 0,50%


Diff: -23880 17738 -441 -6583 -3,30% 3,34% -0,04% 41618 6,64% Diff: 0,03% -1,00%
















Illinois 2012 2964805 2104104 94917 5163826 57,41% 40,75% 1,84% 860701 16,67% Illinois 2012 4,22%
IL HuffPo Link IL Politico Link
Illinois 2008 3419348 2031179 77828 5528355 61,85% 36,74% 1,41% 1388169 25,11% Illinois 2008 4,21%


Diff: -454543 72925 17089 -364529 -4,44% 4,01% 0,43% -527468 -8,44% Diff: 0,01% -6,59%
















Indiana 2012 1140425 1412620 49838 2602883 43,81% 54,27% 1,91% 272195 10,46% Indiana 2012 2,13%
IN HuffPo Link IN Politico Link
Indiana 2008 1374039 1345648 35903 2755590 49,86% 48,83% 1,30% 28391 1,03% Indiana 2008 2,10%


Diff: -233614 66972 13935 -152707 -6,05% 5,44% 0,61% -300586 11,49% Diff: 0,03% -5,54%
















Iowa 2012 816429 727928 21611 1565968 52,14% 46,48% 1,38% 88501 5,65% Iowa 2012 1,28%
IA HuffPo Link IA Politico Link
Iowa 2008 828940 682379 25804 1537123 53,93% 44,39% 1,68% 146561 9,53% Iowa 2008 1,17%


Diff: -12511 45549 -4193 28845 -1,79% 2,09% -0,30% -58060 -3,88% Diff: 0,11% 1,88%
















Kansas 2012 427918 678719 24607 1131244 37,83% 60,00% 2,18% 250801 22,17% Kansas 2012 0,92%
KS HuffPo Link KS Politico Link
Kansas 2008 514765 699655 23996 1238416 41,57% 56,50% 1,94% 184890 14,93% Kansas 2008 0,94%


Diff: -86847 -20936 611 -107172 -3,74% 3,50% 0,24% 65911 7,24% Diff: -0,02% -8,65%
















Kentucky 2012 679357 1087136 30272 1796765 37,81% 60,51% 1,68% 407779 22,70% Kentucky 2012 1,47%
KY HuffPo Link KY Politico Link
Kentucky 2008 751985 1048462 27140 1827587 41,15% 57,37% 1,49% 296477 16,22% Kentucky 2008 1,39%


Diff: -72628 38674 3132 -30822 -3,34% 3,14% 0,20% 111302 6,47% Diff: 0,08% -1,69%
















Louisiana 2008 808496 1152460 32599 1993555 40,56% 57,81% 1,64% 343964 17,25% Louisiana 2008 1,63%
LA HuffPo Link LA Politico Link
Louisiana 2012 782989 1148275 29497 1960761 39,93% 58,56% 1,50% 365286 18,63% Louisiana 2012 1,49%


Diff: 25507 4185 3102 32794 0,62% -0,75% 0,13% -21322 -1,38% Diff: 0,14% 1,67%
















Maine 2012 397754 290437 22547 710738 55,96% 40,86% 3,17% 107317 15,10% Maine 2012 0,58%
ME HuffPo Link ME Politico Link
Maine 2008 421923 295273 13967 731163 57,71% 40,38% 1,91% 126650 17,32% Maine 2008 0,56%


Diff: -24169 -4836 8580 -20425 -1,74% 0,48% 1,26% -19333 -2,22% Diff: 0,02% -2,79%
















Maryland 2012 1547359 923684 53652 2524695 61,29% 36,59% 2,13% 623675 24,70% Maryland 2012 2,06%
MD HuffPo Link MD Politico Link
Maryland 2008 1629467 959862 42267 2631596 61,92% 36,47% 1,61% 669605 25,44% Maryland 2008 2,00%


Diff: -82108 -36178 11385 -106901 -0,63% 0,11% 0,52% -45930 -0,74% Diff: 0,06% -4,06%
















Massachusetts 2012 1900575 1177370 50189 3128134 60,76% 37,64% 1,60% 723205 23,12% Massachusetts 2012 2,56%
MA HuffPo Link MA Politico Link
Massachusetts 2008 1904098 1108854 68117 3081069 61,80% 35,99% 2,21% 795244 25,81% Massachusetts 2008 2,34%


Diff: -3523 68516 -17928 47065 -1,04% 1,65% -0,61% -72039 -2,69% Diff: 0,21% 1,53%
















Michigan 2012 2561911 2112673 43144 4717728 54,30% 44,78% 0,91% 449238 9,52% Michigan 2012 3,85%
MI Huffpo Link MI Politico Link
Michigan 2008 2872579 2048639 88976 5010194 57,33% 40,89% 1,78% 823940 16,45% Michigan 2008 3,81%
SOS website is better
Diff: -310668 64034 -45832 -292466 -3,03% 3,89% -0,86% -374702 -6,92% Diff: 0,04% -5,84%
















Minnesota 2012 1547668 1321575 59699 2928942 52,84% 45,12% 2,04% 226093 7,72% Minnesota 2012 2,39%
MN Huffpo Link -more to date MN Politico Link
Minnesota 2008 1573354 1275409 61606 2910369 54,06% 43,82% 2,12% 297945 10,24% Minnesota 2008 2,21%
downloadable Map
Diff: -25686 46166 -1907 18573 -1,22% 1,30% -0,08% -71852 -2,52% Diff: 0,18% 0,64%
















Mississippi 2012 528260 674302 11416 1213978 43,51% 55,54% 0,94% 146042 12,03% Mississippi 2012 0,99%
MS HuffPo Link MS Politico Link
Mississippi 2008 554662 724597 10606 1289865 43,00% 56,18% 0,82% 169935 13,17% Mississippi 2008 0,98%


Diff: -26402 -50295 810 -75887 0,51% -0,63% 0,12% -23893 -1,14% Diff: 0,01% -5,88%
















Missouri 2012 1215031 1478961 50943 2744935 44,26% 53,88% 1,86% 263930 9,62% Missouri 2012 2,24%
MO HuffPo Link MO Politico Link
Missouri 2008 1441911 1445814 41224 2928949 49,23% 49,36% 1,41% 3903 0,13% Missouri 2008 2,23%


Diff: -226880 33147 9719 -184014 -4,97% 4,52% 0,45% 260027 9,48% Diff: 0,01% -6,28%
















Montana 2012 199008 265995 13978 478981 41,55% 55,53% 2,92% 66987 13,99% Montana 2012 0,39%
MT HuffPo Link MT Politico Link
Montana 2008 232159 243882 16709 492750 47,11% 49,49% 3,39% 11723 2,38% Montana 2008 0,37%


Diff: -33151 22113 -2731 -13769 -5,57% 6,04% -0,47% 55264 11,61% Diff: 0,02% -2,79%
















Nebraska 2012 290758 464696 12996 768450 37,84% 60,47% 1,69% 173938 22,63% Nebraska 2012 0,63%
NE HuffPo Link NE Politico Link
Nebraska 2008 333319 452979 14983 801281 41,60% 56,53% 1,87% 119660 14,93% Nebraska 2008 0,61%


Diff: -42561 11717 -1987 -32831 -3,76% 3,94% -0,18% 54278 7,70% Diff: 0,02% -4,10%
















NE-02 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! NE-02 0,00%


2008 138809 135439 3561 277809 49,97% 48,75% 1,28% 3370 1,21% 2008 0,21%


Diff: -138809 -135439 -3561 -277809 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3370 #DIV/0! Diff: -0,21% -100,00%
















Nevada 2012 529005 462607 19895 1011507 52,30% 45,73% 1,97% 66398 6,56% Nevada 2012 0,83%
NV HuffPo Link NV Politico Link
Nevada 2008 533736 412827 21285 967848 55,15% 42,65% 2,20% 120909 12,49% Nevada 2008 0,74%


Diff: -4731 49780 -1390 43659 -2,85% 3,08% -0,23% -54511 -5,93% Diff: 0,09% 4,51%
















New Hampshire 2012 368529 327870 8475 704874 52,28% 46,51% 1,20% 40659 5,77% New Hampshire 2012 0,58%
NH HuffPo Link NH Politico Link
New Hampshire 2008 384826 316534 9610 710970 54,13% 44,52% 1,35% 68292 9,61% New Hampshire 2008 0,54%


Diff: -16297 11336 -1135 -6096 -1,84% 1,99% -0,15% -27633 -3,84% Diff: 0,03% -0,86%
















New Jersey 2012 1960744 1383233 34849 3378826 58,03% 40,94% 1,03% 577511 17,09% New Jersey 2012 2,76%
NJ HuffPo Link NJ Politico Link
2008 2215422 1613207 48778 3877407 57,14% 41,61% 1,26% 602215 15,53% 2008 2,95%


Diff: -254678 -229974 -13929 -498581 0,89% -0,67% -0,23% -24704 1,56% Diff: -0,19% -12,86%
















New Mexico 2012 409298 332826 32210 774334 52,86% 42,98% 4,16% 76472 9,88% New Mexico 2012 0,63%
NM HuffPo Link NM Politico Link
New Mexico 2008 472422 346832 10904 830158 56,91% 41,78% 1,31% 125590 15,13% New Mexico 2008 0,63%


Diff: -63124 -14006 21306 -55824 -4,05% 1,20% 2,85% -49118 -5,25% Diff: 0,00% -6,72%
















New York 2012 3875826 2226637 86519 6188982 62,62% 35,98% 1,40% 1649189 26,65% New York 2012 5,06%
NY HuffPo Link NY Politico Link
New York 2008 4804945 2752771 83232 7640948 62,88% 36,03% 1,09% 2052174 26,86% New York 2008 5,81%


Diff: -929119 -526134 3287 -1451966 -0,26% -0,05% 0,31% -402985 -0,21% Diff: -0,76% -19,00%
















North Carolina 2012 2178388 2275853 44798 4499039 48,42% 50,59% 1,00% 97465 2,17% North Carolina 2012 3,68%
NC HuffPo Links NC Politico Link
North Carolina 2008 2142651 2128474 39664 4310789 49,70% 49,38% 0,92% 14177 0,33% North Carolina 2008 3,28%


Diff: 35737 147379 5134 188250 -1,29% 1,21% 0,08% -111642 2,50% Diff: 0,40% 4,37%
















North Dakota 2012 124564 187717 9609 321890 38,70% 58,32% 2,99% 63153 19,62% North Dakota 2012 0,26%
ND Huffpo Link ND Politico Link
North Dakota 2008 141403 168887 7448 317738 44,50% 53,15% 2,34% 27484 8,65% North Dakota 2008 0,24%


Diff: -16839 18830 2161 4152 -5,81% 5,16% 0,64% 35669 10,97% Diff: 0,02% 1,31%
















Ohio 2012 2697260 2593779 88051 5379090 50,14% 48,22% 1,64% 103481 1,92% Ohio 2012 4,39%
OH Huffpo Link OH Politico Link
Ohio 2008 2940044 2677820 103951 5721815 51,38% 46,80% 1,82% 262224 4,58% Ohio 2008 4,35%
New '08 canvass, different numbers, must check
Diff: -242784 -84041 -15900 -342725 -1,24% 1,42% -0,18% -158743 -2,66% Diff: 0,04% -5,99%
















Oklahoma 2012 443547 891325 0 1334872 33,23% 66,77% 0,00% 447778 33,54% Oklahoma 2012 1,09%
OK HuffPo Link OK Politico Link
Oklahoma 2008 502496 960165 0 1462661 34,35% 65,65% 0,00% 457669 31,29% Oklahoma 2008 1,11%


Diff: -58949 -68840 0 -127789 -1,13% 1,13% 0,00% -9891 2,25% Diff: -0,02% -8,74%
















Oregon 2012 915703 718254 47648 1681605 54,45% 42,71% 2,83% 197449 11,74% Oregon 2012 1,37%
OR Huffpo Link OR Politico Link
Oregon 2008 1037291 738475 52098 1827864 56,75% 40,40% 2,85% 298816 16,35% Oregon 2008 1,39%


Diff: -121588 -20221 -4450 -146259 -2,29% 2,31% -0,02% -101367 -4,61% Diff: -0,02% -8,00%
















Pennsylvania 2012 2907448 2619583 69468 5596499 51,95% 46,81% 1,24% 287865 5,14% Pennsylvania 2012 4,57%
PA Huffpo Link PA Politico Link
Pennsylvania 2008 3276363 2655885 83228 6015476 54,47% 44,15% 1,38% 620478 10,31% Pennsylvania 2008 4,58%


Diff: -368915 -36302 -13760 -418977 -2,51% 2,66% -0,14% -332613 -5,17% Diff: 0,00% -6,96%
















Rhode Island 2012 279244 157088 9151 445483 62,68% 35,26% 2,05% 122156 27,42% Rhode Island 2012 0,36%
RI HuffPo Link RI Politico Link
Rhode Island 2008 296571 165391 9804 471766 62,86% 35,06% 2,08% 131180 27,81% Rhode Island 2008 0,36%


Diff: -17327 -8303 -653 -26283 -0,18% 0,20% -0,02% -9024 -0,39% Diff: 0,01% -5,57%
















South Carolina 2012 857553 1065952 26464 1949969 43,98% 54,67% 1,36% 208399 10,69% South Carolina 2012 1,59%
SC HuffPo Link SC Politico Link
South Carolina 2008 862449 1034896 23624 1920969 44,90% 53,87% 1,23% 172447 8,98% South Carolina 2008 1,46%


Diff: -4896 31056 2840 29000 -0,92% 0,79% 0,13% 35952 1,71% Diff: 0,13% 1,51%
















South Dakota 2012 144998 210541 8166 363705 39,87% 57,89% 2,25% 65543 18,02% South Dakota 2012 0,30%
SD HuffPo Link SD Politico Link
South Dakota 2008 170924 203054 7997 381975 44,75% 53,16% 2,09% 32130 8,41% South Dakota 2008 0,29%


Diff: -25926 7487 169 -18270 -4,88% 4,73% 0,15% 33413 9,61% Diff: 0,01% -4,78%
















Tennessee 2012 959054 1459965 35451 2454470 39,07% 59,48% 1,44% 500911 20,41% Tennessee 2012 2,00%
TN HuffPo Link TN Politico Link
Tennessee 2008 1087437 1479178 35367 2601982 41,79% 56,85% 1,36% 391741 15,06% Tennessee 2008 1,98%


Diff: -128383 -19213 84 -147512 -2,72% 2,63% 0,09% 109170 5,35% Diff: 0,03% -5,67%
















Texas 2012 3294482 4555857 114329 7964668 41,36% 57,20% 1,44% 1261375 15,84% Texas 2012 6,51%
TX HuffPo Link TX Politico Link
Texas 2008 3528633 4479328 79247 8087208 43,63% 55,39% 0,98% 950695 11,76% Texas 2008 6,15%


Diff: -234151 76529 35082 -122540 -2,27% 1,81% 0,46% 310680 4,08% Diff: 0,35% -1,52%
















Utah 2012 229463 671747 22091 923301 24,85% 72,75% 2,39% 442284 47,90% Utah 2012 0,75%
UT huffPo Link UT Politico Link
Utah 2008 327670 596030 33781 957481 34,22% 62,25% 3,53% 268360 28,03% Utah 2008 0,73%
2008 is an .xml download
Diff: -98207 75717 -11690 -34180 -9,37% 10,51% -1,14% 173924 19,87% Diff: 0,03% -3,57%
















Vermont 2012 199259 92700 5315 297274 67,03% 31,18% 1,79% 106559 35,85% Vermont 2012 0,24%
VT HuffPo Link VT Politico Link
Vermont 2008 219262 98974 6810 325046 67,46% 30,45% 2,10% 120288 37,01% Vermont 2008 0,25%


Diff: 35195 -22206 -1495 11494 -0,43% 0,73% -0,31% 57401 -1,16% Diff: 0,00% 3,54%
















Virginia 2012 1905528 1789618 52712 3747858 50,84% 47,75% 1,41% 115910 3,09% Virginia 2012 3,06%
VA HuffPo Link VA Politico Link
Virginia 2008 1959532 1725005 38723 3723260 52,63% 46,33% 1,04% 234527 6,30% Virginia 2008 2,83%


Diff: -54004 64613 13989 24598 -1,79% 1,42% 0,37% -118617 -3,21% Diff: 0,23% 0,66%
















Washington 2012 1567463 1173652 37226 2778341 56,42% 42,24% 1,34% 393811 14,17% Washington 2012 2,27%
WA HuffPo Link WA Politico Link
Washington 2008 1750848 1229216 73152 3053216 57,34% 40,26% 2,40% 521632 17,08% Washington 2008 2,32%


Diff: -183385 -55564 -35926 -274875 -0,93% 1,98% -1,06% -127821 -2,91% Diff: -0,05% -9,00%
















West Virginia 2012 234925 412406 14312 661643 35,51% 62,33% 2,16% 177481 26,82% West Virginia 2012 0,54%
WV HuffPo Link WV Politico Link
West Virginia 2008 303857 397466 13545 714868 42,51% 55,60% 1,89% 93609 13,09% West Virginia 2008 0,54%


Diff: -68932 14940 767 -53225 -7,00% 6,73% 0,27% 83872 13,73% Diff: 0,00% -7,45%
















Wisconsin 2012 1613950 1408746 33917 3056613 52,80% 46,09% 1,11% 205204 6,71% Wisconsin 2012 2,50%
WI HuffPo Link WI Politico Link
Wisconsin 2008 1677211 1262393 43813 2983417 56,22% 42,31% 1,47% 414818 13,90% Wisconsin 2008 2,27%


Diff: -63261 146353 -9896 73196 -3,42% 3,77% -0,36% -209614 -7,19% Diff: 0,23% 2,45%
















Wyoming 2012 68780 170265 6740 245785 27,98% 69,27% 2,74% 101485 41,29% Wyoming 2012 0,20%
WY HuffPo Link WY Politico Link
Wyoming 2008 82868 164958 5023 252849 32,77% 65,24% 1,99% 82090 32,47% Wyoming 2008 0,19%


Diff: -14088 5307 1717 -7064 -4,79% 4,03% 0,76% 19395 8,82% Diff: 0,01% -2,79%



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