10 November 2012

Preliminary Totals II, 11/10/2012

The Prelim report for 11/09 is HERE.  

Here are the totals as of 11/10/2012, mostly in this report, but the complete EXCEL file is HERE at Google Drive.

Yesterday, I wrote the following:

"In 2008, between my first national vote update (11/12/2008) and the End Analysis of the GE 2008 (01/04/2009), more than 3.3 million votes were added to Obama's total, almost 2.1 million votes were added to McCain's total and 300,000 more votes were added to the minor candidates' totals, which shifted the total from one week after the election (125,655,127) another 5.7 MILLION votes upward (to 131,370,177). This means that this current total:



USADEMGOPINDTotalDEM %GOP %IND %MarginMar %










20126126141958202671194178612140587650,46%47,94%1,60%30587482,52%
20086949942859950323200952913145928052,87%45,60%1,53%95491057,26%
Diff:-8238009-1747652-67743-10053404-2,41%2,34%0,07%-6490357-4,74%












of 121,405,876 votes is absolutely certain to shift upward. Right now, that total is slightly less than the Bush re-election total from 2004, but surely when all the end-canvasses are in, it will be somewhere between the totals from 2004 and 2008, making it the second highest raw vote total in our history, after 2008. Furthermore, Obama's victory in 2012, though lean, is still a larger victory than George W. Bush's +2.46% victory in 2004, and a much larger victory in the electoral college."

HERE ARE THE NATIONAL TOTALS FOR 11/10:


USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar % USA % of NPV












2012 61859353 58612278 1946561 122418192 50,53% 47,88% 1,59% 3247075 2,65% 2012 100,00%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26% 2008 100,00%
Diff: -7640075 -1338045 -62968 -9041088 -2,34% 2,28% 0,06% -6302030 -4,61% Diff: 0,00%

























122,418,192 - 121,405,876 = 1,012,316 more votes added to the totals between 11/09 and 11/10. That is just in one day. Of course, this will slow down some with time. 

This also means that the vote totals  have already surpassed the 122,293,548 votes from George W. Bush, Jr.'s re-election in 2004 by 124,644 votes. The election of 2012 will have the 2nd highest number of popular votes in our history, after 2008, and, at least for now, only two men in history have come over 60 million votes: George W. Bush, Jr. in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Obama's margin over Mitt Romney also now exceeds Bush's margin over Kerry, both in raw votes and in percentages. So, if anyone feels like falling into the trap of discussing whether Obama has a "mandate" or not, I will not remind that both Clinton and Obama have won all four of the elections (1992, 1996, 2008 and 2012) with larger margins than Bush did in 2004 and Gore won in the PV in 2000. All four of their electoral college margins are also larger. So, my recommendation is to not even "go there" and try to start a discussion as to whether President Obama has a "mandate". The answer is simple: He won, and yes, he does have a mandate, just as Bush had in 2004.

I think it is important to remember that Bush's re-election from 2004 was already a massive jump of almost 16.9 million votes over 2000, a growth rate of 16%, larger than Clinton's growth rate 1992 over 1988 (14%), but still well under Eisenhower's record setting 26.5% growth rate, 1952 over 1948. And though 131.4 million votes is truly impressive from 2008, it only represents a 7.5% growth rate. And also, interestingly enough, this would be the second re-election of a Democratic President where less voters voted in his second term than in his first.

I would also like to remind in a very mild-mannered way that if we had 100% voter turnout, we would be seeing a national vote of over 200,000,000!!!

Though the election has now passed the 2004 totals, Obama's margin over Romney has not yet surpassed Bush's margin over

Of the four states that I reported as having "swung" more Democratic in 2012, nothing has changed: Alaska, Louisiana, Mississippi and New Jersey all posted better margin numbers for Obama than in 2008. The other 47 "states" (including DC) posted  republican "swings".

I would like to focus on the popular vote totals of two states: Florida and Texas:






DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar % USA % of NPV growth rate HuffPo links Politico Links calc electors
Florida 2012 4204048 4140223 72413 8416684 49,95% 49,19% 0,86% 63825 0,76% Florida 2012 6,88%
FL HuffPo Link FL Politico Link 37
Florida 2008 4282367 4046219 83275 8411861 50,91% 48,10% 0,99% 236148 2,81% Florida 2008 6,40%


34
Diff: -78319 94004 -10862 4823 -0,96% 1,09% -0,13% -172323 -2,05% Diff: 0,48% 0,06%

3




DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %
% of NPV growth rate HuffPo links Politico Links calc electors
Texas 2012 3294482 4555857 114329 7964668 41,36% 57,20% 1,44% 1261375 15,84% Texas 2012 6,51%
TX HuffPo Link TX Politico Link 35
Texas 2008 3528633 4479328 79247 8087208 43,63% 55,39% 0,98% 950695 11,76% Texas 2008 6,15%


33
Diff: -234151 76529 35082 -122540 -2,27% 1,81% 0,46% 310680 4,08% Diff: 0,35% -1,52%

2


At the current time, in the electoral college, Texas has 38 electoral votes, Florida has 29. They are the 2nd and 3rd largest states in the EC, after monstrous California.

But notice which state currently has a higher total popular vote count? Yes, 452,016 MORE votes have currently been cast in Florida than in Texas. Wow. And yet, Texas, because of the 2010 census, has 8 electoral votes more than Florida. BTW, Florida, as you can see, also outperformed Texas in 2008.

One of the ideas being cast around about the Electoral College, in order to mend it, is to allocate electronic electors to each state AFTER the final canvasses are in, based on their percentage of the national popular vote. Now, of the two excel excerpts from above, you can see that Texas currently accounts for 6.51% of the NPV, while Florida accounts for 6.88%. If you scroll far to the right, you will see how the electors for those states would look were the EC makeup to be decided by statewide performance in each GE instead of based upon a ten year census. In this case, Florida would have 37 electors, Texas would have 35.

Why would this be good for us? Well, it would motivate more people, especially in small states, to come out and vote, for each extra vote, regardless of for whom, would increase that state's chances of increasing it's elector count. It would also force candidates to campaign in not just the perceived battleground states, but also pretty much all over. Had the Obama team sensed that Romney was going to win Alaska by only +13 instead of +21.5, would he have visited the state? Well, maybe, but at least people would be more encouraged to engage in the process. 

Of course, the opposite could theoretically happen: people of one party could deliberately decide to sit an election out were the apportionment of electors to be based on statewide performance / NPV, in order to minimize the number of electors for the opposition candidate who they think is guaranteed to win the state, but nonetheless, the idea is a tantalizing one.

People are still voting in New Jersey due to Hurricane Sandy - in fact, the first responders have until 11/17 to get their votes in.

Until the provisional votes from Ohio are counted, I am holding off doing a prelim analysis of the Midwest, especially "Auto-Country" (OH, MI, PA, IN), but the President's margin continues to rise in Michigan. At +9.52, he is very close to landslide territory and definitely outperformed the end-polling average for the Wolverine State.

Here are the total numbers as of 10/11/2012:


USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %










2012 61859353 58612278 1946561 122418192 50,53% 47,88% 1,59% 3247075 2,65%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26%
Diff: -7640075 -1338045 -62968 -9041088 -2,34% 2,28% 0,06% -6302030 -4,61%




















Alabama 2012 793620 1252453 18626 2064699 38,44% 60,66% 0,90% 458833 22,22%
Alabama 2008 813479 1266546 19794 2099819 38,74% 60,32% 0,94% 453067 21,58%
Diff: -19859 -14093 -1168 -35120 -0,30% 0,34% -0,04% 5766 0,65%










Alaska 2012 91696 121234 9791 222721 41,17% 54,43% 4,40% 29538 13,26%
Alaska 2008 123594 193841 8762 326197 37,89% 59,42% 2,69% 70247 21,54%
Diff: -31898 -72607 1029 -103476 3,28% -4,99% 1,71% -40709 -8,27%










Arizona 2012 806421 999655 29787 1835863 43,93% 54,45% 1,62% 193234 10,53%
Arizona 2008 1034707 1230111 39020 2303838 44,91% 53,39% 1,69% 195404 8,48%
Diff: -228286 -230456 -9233 -467975 -0,99% 1,06% -0,07% -2170 2,04%










Arkansas 2012 391505 643048 27091 1061644 36,88% 60,57% 2,55% 251543 23,69%
Arkansas 2008 422310 638017 26290 1086617 38,86% 58,72% 2,42% 215707 19,85%
Diff: -30805 5031 801 -24973 -1,99% 1,86% 0,13% 35836 3,84%










California 2012 5958059 3870455 236843 10065357 59,19% 38,45% 2,35% 2087604 20,74%
California 2008 8274473 5011781 291011 13577265 60,94% 36,91% 2,14% 3262692 24,03%
Diff: -2316414 -1141326 -54168 -3511908 -1,75% 1,54% 0,21% -1175088 -3,29%










Colorado 2012 1252679 1135403 56930 2445012 51,23% 46,44% 2,33% 117276 4,80%
Colorado 2008 1288633 1073629 39200 2401462 53,66% 44,71% 1,63% 215004 8,95%
Diff: -35954 61774 17730 43550 -2,43% 1,73% 0,70% -97728 -4,16%










Connecticut 2012 912531 631432 18220 1562183 58,41% 40,42% 1,17% 281099 17,99%
Connecticut 2008 997773 629428 19592 1646793 60,59% 38,22% 1,19% 368345 22,37%
Diff: -85242 2004 -1372 -84610 -2,18% 2,20% -0,02% -87246 -4,37%










Delaware 2012 242547 165476 5821 413844 58,61% 39,99% 1,41% 77071 18,62%
Delaware 2008 255459 152374 4783 412616 61,91% 36,93% 1,16% 103085 24,98%
Diff: -12912 13102 1038 1228 -3,30% 3,06% 0,25% -26014 -6,36%










DC 2012 222332 17337 4326 243995 91,12% 7,11% 1,77% 204995 84,02%
DC 2008 245800 17367 2686 265853 92,46% 6,53% 1,01% 228433 85,92%
Diff: -23468 -30 1640 -21858 -1,34% 0,57% 0,76% -23438 -1,91%










Florida 2012 4204048 4140223 72413 8416684 49,95% 49,19% 0,86% 63825 0,76%
Florida 2008 4282367 4046219 83275 8411861 50,91% 48,10% 0,99% 236148 2,81%
Diff: -78319 94004 -10862 4823 -0,96% 1,09% -0,13% -172323 -2,05%










Georgia 2012 1766405 2075984 45169 3887558 45,44% 53,40% 1,16% 309579 7,96%
Georgia 2008 1844123 2048759 39276 3932158 46,90% 52,10% 1,00% 204636 5,20%
Diff: -77718 27225 5893 -44600 -1,46% 1,30% 0,16% 104943 2,76%










Hawaii 2012 306545 120975 7019 434539 70,54% 27,84% 1,62% 185570 42,71%
Hawaii 2008 325871 120566 7131 453568 71,85% 26,58% 1,57% 205305 45,26%
Diff: -19326 409 -112 -19029 -1,30% 1,26% 0,04% -19735 -2,56%










Idaho 2012 212560 420750 18561 651871 32,61% 64,54% 2,85% 208190 31,94%
Idaho 2008 236440 403012 19002 658454 35,91% 61,21% 2,89% 166572 25,30%
Diff: -23880 17738 -441 -6583 -3,30% 3,34% -0,04% 41618 6,64%










Illinois 2012 2934826 2094526 84374 5113726 57,39% 40,96% 1,65% 840300 16,43%
Illinois 2008 3419348 2031179 77828 5528355 61,85% 36,74% 1,41% 1388169 25,11%
Diff: -484522 63347 6546 -414629 -4,46% 4,22% 0,24% -547869 -8,68%










Indiana 2012 1140325 1412620 49838 2602783 43,81% 54,27% 1,91% 272295 10,46%
Indiana 2008 1374039 1345648 35903 2755590 49,86% 48,83% 1,30% 28391 1,03%
Diff: -233714 66972 13935 -152807 -6,05% 5,44% 0,61% -300686 11,49%










Iowa 2012 816429 727928 21611 1565968 52,14% 46,48% 1,38% 88501 5,65%
Iowa 2008 828940 682379 25804 1537123 53,93% 44,39% 1,68% 146561 9,53%
Diff: -12511 45549 -4193 28845 -1,79% 2,09% -0,30% -58060 -3,88%










Kansas 2012 427918 678719 24607 1131244 37,83% 60,00% 2,18% 250801 22,17%
Kansas 2008 514765 699655 23996 1238416 41,57% 56,50% 1,94% 184890 14,93%
Diff: -86847 -20936 611 -107172 -3,74% 3,50% 0,24% 65911 7,24%










Kentucky 2012 679357 1087136 30272 1796765 37,81% 60,51% 1,68% 407779 22,70%
Kentucky 2008 751985 1048462 27140 1827587 41,15% 57,37% 1,49% 296477 16,22%
Diff: -72628 38674 3132 -30822 -3,34% 3,14% 0,20% 111302 6,47%










Louisiana 2008 808395 1152948 32622 1993965 40,54% 57,82% 1,64% 344553 17,28%
Louisiana 2012 782989 1148275 29497 1960761 39,93% 58,56% 1,50% 365286 18,63%
Diff: 25406 4673 3125 33204 0,61% -0,74% 0,13% -20733 -1,35%










Maine 2012 397754 290437 22547 710738 55,96% 40,86% 3,17% 107317 15,10%
Maine 2008 421923 295273 13967 731163 57,71% 40,38% 1,91% 126650 17,32%
Diff: -24169 -4836 8580 -20425 -1,74% 0,48% 1,26% -19333 -2,22%










Maryland 2012 1547359 923684 53652 2524695 61,29% 36,59% 2,13% 623675 24,70%
Maryland 2008 1629467 959862 42267 2631596 61,92% 36,47% 1,61% 669605 25,44%
Diff: -82108 -36178 11385 -106901 -0,63% 0,11% 0,52% -45930 -0,74%










Massachusetts 2012 1900575 1177370 50189 3128134 60,76% 37,64% 1,60% 723205 23,12%
Massachusetts 2008 1904098 1108854 68117 3081069 61,80% 35,99% 2,21% 795244 25,81%
Diff: -3523 68516 -17928 47065 -1,04% 1,65% -0,61% -72039 -2,69%










Michigan 2012 2561911 2112673 43144 4717728 54,30% 44,78% 0,91% 449238 9,52%
Michigan 2008 2872579 2048639 88976 5010194 57,33% 40,89% 1,78% 823940 16,45%
Diff: -310668 64034 -45832 -292466 -3,03% 3,89% -0,86% -374702 -6,92%










Minnesota 2012 1547668 1321575 59699 2928942 52,84% 45,12% 2,04% 226093 7,72%
Minnesota 2008 1573354 1275409 61606 2910369 54,06% 43,82% 2,12% 297945 10,24%
Diff: -25686 46166 -1907 18573 -1,22% 1,30% -0,08% -71852 -2,52%










Mississippi 2012 528260 674302 11416 1213978 43,51% 55,54% 0,94% 146042 12,03%
Mississippi 2008 554662 724597 10606 1289865 43,00% 56,18% 0,82% 169935 13,17%
Diff: -26402 -50295 810 -75887 0,51% -0,63% 0,12% -23893 -1,14%










Missouri 2012 1215031 1478961 50943 2744935 44,26% 53,88% 1,86% 263930 9,62%
Missouri 2008 1441911 1445814 41224 2928949 49,23% 49,36% 1,41% 3903 0,13%
Diff: -226880 33147 9719 -184014 -4,97% 4,52% 0,45% 260027 9,48%










Montana 2012 199008 265995 13978 478981 41,55% 55,53% 2,92% 66987 13,99%
Montana 2008 232159 243882 16709 492750 47,11% 49,49% 3,39% 11723 2,38%
Diff: -33151 22113 -2731 -13769 -5,57% 6,04% -0,47% 55264 11,61%










Nebraska 2012 290758 464696 12996 768450 37,84% 60,47% 1,69% 173938 22,63%
Nebraska 2008 333319 452979 14983 801281 41,60% 56,53% 1,87% 119660 14,93%
Diff: -42561 11717 -1987 -32831 -3,76% 3,94% -0,18% 54278 7,70%










NE-02 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
2008 138809 135439 3561 277809 49,97% 48,75% 1,28% 3370 1,21%
Diff: -138809 -135439 -3561 -277809 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3370 #DIV/0!










Nevada 2012 529005 462607 19895 1011507 52,30% 45,73% 1,97% 66398 6,56%
Nevada 2008 533736 412827 21285 967848 55,15% 42,65% 2,20% 120909 12,49%
Diff: -4731 49780 -1390 43659 -2,85% 3,08% -0,23% -54511 -5,93%










New Hampshire 2012 368529 327870 8475 704874 52,28% 46,51% 1,20% 40659 5,77%
New Hampshire 2008 384826 316534 9610 710970 54,13% 44,52% 1,35% 68292 9,61%
Diff: -16297 11336 -1135 -6096 -1,84% 1,99% -0,15% -27633 -3,84%










New Jersey 2012 1960744 1383233 34849 3378826 58,03% 40,94% 1,03% 577511 17,09%
2008 2215422 1613207 48778 3877407 57,14% 41,61% 1,26% 602215 15,53%
Diff: -254678 -229974 -13929 -498581 0,89% -0,67% -0,23% -24704 1,56%










New Mexico 2012 409298 332826 32210 774334 52,86% 42,98% 4,16% 76472 9,88%
New Mexico 2008 472422 346832 10904 830158 56,91% 41,78% 1,31% 125590 15,13%
Diff: -63124 -14006 21306 -55824 -4,05% 1,20% 2,85% -49118 -5,25%










New York 2012 3875826 2226637 86519 6188982 62,62% 35,98% 1,40% 1649189 26,65%
New York 2008 4804945 2752771 83232 7640948 62,88% 36,03% 1,09% 2052174 26,86%
Diff: -929119 -526134 3287 -1451966 -0,26% -0,05% 0,31% -402985 -0,21%










North Carolina 2012 2178388 2275853 44798 4499039 48,42% 50,59% 1,00% 97465 2,17%
North Carolina 2008 2142651 2128474 39664 4310789 49,70% 49,38% 0,92% 14177 0,33%
Diff: 35737 147379 5134 188250 -1,29% 1,21% 0,08% -111642 2,50%










North Dakota 2012 124564 187717 9609 321890 38,70% 58,32% 2,99% 63153 19,62%
North Dakota 2008 141403 168887 7448 317738 44,50% 53,15% 2,34% 27484 8,65%
Diff: -16839 18830 2161 4152 -5,81% 5,16% 0,64% 35669 10,97%










Ohio 2012 2697260 2593779 88051 5379090 50,14% 48,22% 1,64% 103481 1,92%
Ohio 2008 2940044 2677820 103951 5721815 51,38% 46,80% 1,82% 262224 4,58%
Diff: -242784 -84041 -15900 -342725 -1,24% 1,42% -0,18% -158743 -2,66%










Oklahoma 2012 443547 891325 0 1334872 33,23% 66,77% 0,00% 447778 33,54%
Oklahoma 2008 502496 960165 0 1462661 34,35% 65,65% 0,00% 457669 31,29%
Diff: -58949 -68840 0 -127789 -1,13% 1,13% 0,00% -9891 2,25%










Oregon 2012 915703 718254 47648 1681605 54,45% 42,71% 2,83% 197449 11,74%
Oregon 2008 1037291 738475 52098 1827864 56,75% 40,40% 2,85% 298816 16,35%
Diff: -121588 -20221 -4450 -146259 -2,29% 2,31% -0,02% -101367 -4,61%










Pennsylvania 2012 2907448 2619583 69468 5596499 51,95% 46,81% 1,24% 287865 5,14%
Pennsylvania 2008 3276363 2655885 83228 6015476 54,47% 44,15% 1,38% 620478 10,31%
Diff: -368915 -36302 -13760 -418977 -2,51% 2,66% -0,14% -332613 -5,17%










Rhode Island 2012 279244 157088 9151 445483 62,68% 35,26% 2,05% 122156 27,42%
Rhode Island 2008 296571 165391 9804 471766 62,86% 35,06% 2,08% 131180 27,81%
Diff: -17327 -8303 -653 -26283 -0,18% 0,20% -0,02% -9024 -0,39%










South Carolina 2012 857553 1065952 26464 1949969 43,98% 54,67% 1,36% 208399 10,69%
South Carolina 2008 862449 1034896 23624 1920969 44,90% 53,87% 1,23% 172447 8,98%
Diff: -4896 31056 2840 29000 -0,92% 0,79% 0,13% 35952 1,71%










South Dakota 2012 144997 210560 8166 363723 39,86% 57,89% 2,25% 65563 18,03%
South Dakota 2008 170924 203054 7997 381975 44,75% 53,16% 2,09% 32130 8,41%
Diff: -25927 7506 169 -18252 -4,88% 4,73% 0,15% 33433 9,61%










Tennessee 2012 959054 1459965 35451 2454470 39,07% 59,48% 1,44% 500911 20,41%
Tennessee 2008 1087437 1479178 35367 2601982 41,79% 56,85% 1,36% 391741 15,06%
Diff: -128383 -19213 84 -147512 -2,72% 2,63% 0,09% 109170 5,35%

DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %
Texas 2012 3294482 4555857 114329 7964668 41,36% 57,20% 1,44% 1261375 15,84%
Texas 2008 3528633 4479328 79247 8087208 43,63% 55,39% 0,98% 950695 11,76%
Diff: -234151 76529 35082 -122540 -2,27% 1,81% 0,46% 310680 4,08%










Utah 2012 229463 671747 22091 923301 24,85% 72,75% 2,39% 442284 47,90%
Utah 2008 327670 596030 33781 957481 34,22% 62,25% 3,53% 268360 28,03%
Diff: -98207 75717 -11690 -34180 -9,37% 10,51% -1,14% 173924 19,87%










Vermont 2012 199259 92700 5315 297274 67,03% 31,18% 1,79% 106559 35,85%
Vermont 2008 219262 98974 6810 325046 67,46% 30,45% 2,10% 120288 37,01%
Diff: 35195 -22206 -1495 11494 -0,43% 0,73% -0,31% 57401 -1,16%










Virginia 2012 1905528 1789618 52712 3747858 50,84% 47,75% 1,41% 115910 3,09%
Virginia 2008 1959532 1725005 38723 3723260 52,63% 46,33% 1,04% 234527 6,30%
Diff: -54004 64613 13989 24598 -1,79% 1,42% 0,37% -118617 -3,21%










Washington 2012 1505284 1139695 63906 2708885 55,57% 42,07% 2,36% 365589 13,50%
Washington 2008 1750848 1229216 73152 3053216 57,34% 40,26% 2,40% 521632 17,08%
Diff: -245564 -89521 -9246 -344331 -1,78% 1,81% -0,04% -156043 -3,59%










West Virginia 2012 234925 412406 14312 661643 35,51% 62,33% 2,16% 177481 26,82%
West Virginia 2008 303857 397466 13545 714868 42,51% 55,60% 1,89% 93609 13,09%
Diff: -68932 14940 767 -53225 -7,00% 6,73% 0,27% 83872 13,73%










Wisconsin 2012 1613950 1408746 33917 3056613 52,80% 46,09% 1,11% 205204 6,71%
Wisconsin 2008 1677211 1262393 43813 2983417 56,22% 42,31% 1,47% 414818 13,90%
Diff: -63261 146353 -9896 73196 -3,42% 3,77% -0,36% -209614 -7,19%










Wyoming 2012 68780 170265 6740 245785 27,98% 69,27% 2,74% 101485 41,29%
Wyoming 2008 82868 164958 5023 252849 32,77% 65,24% 1,99% 82090 32,47%
Diff: -14088 5307 1717 -7064 -4,79% 4,03% 0,76% 19395 8,82%


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