09 November 2012

Preliminary 2012 National and State Totals and stats

I have input the statewide totals in an excel table, in comparison to 2008.

The entire data is here on this thread, but also HERE at Google Drive.

Before I delve too deeply here, some important points:

In 2008, between my first national vote update (11/12/2008) and the End Analysis of the GE 2008 (01/04/2009), more than 3.3 million votes were added to Obama's total, almost 2.1 million votes were added to McCain's total and 300,000 more votes were added to the minor candidates' totals, which shifted the total from one week after the election (125,655,127) another 5.7 MILLION votes upward (to 131,370,177). This means that this current total:



USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %










2012 61261419 58202671 1941786 121405876 50,46% 47,94% 1,60% 3058748 2,52%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26%
Diff: -8238009 -1747652 -67743 -10053404 -2,41% 2,34% 0,07% -6490357 -4,74%












of 121,405,876 votes is absolutely certain to shift upward. Right now, that total is slightly less than the Bush re-election total from 2004, but surely when all the end-canvasses are in, it will be somewhere between the totals from 2004 and 2008, making it the second highest raw vote total in our history, after 2008. Furthermore, Obama's victory in 2012, though lean, is still a larger victory than George W. Bush's +2.46% victory in 2004, and a much larger victory in the electoral college.

In California alone, about 2.7 million more votes were added to the end tally between election night and the final canvasses in 2008, not a surprise in such a huge state. This time around, in states that were hit by Hurricane "Sandy" - like New Jersey - voting has been extended for people living in that region and so we are sure to see totals rise in the NE. States like Ohio, which will first open up and count provisional ballots, will be doing this next week. In Ohio alone, there are over 200,000 provisional ballots to sift through. There are about 15 other states that have something similar to Ohio's method, so we are probably looking at more than 1 million votes yet to be added due to absentee ballots, also overseas ballots that were postmarked on 11/06 and are just coming in, provisional ballots and the like. I am pretty sure we will hit or slightly surpass the 125 million vote mark when all is said or done.

In 2008, Obama's election night national margin of +6.1 grew to +7.3 over 2 months, until the final canvasses were sent in and entered into the congressional record.  So, his current +2.52% national margin over former GOP nominee Mitt Romney is very likely to change, and also very likely to go up and not down, based on the states that will add the most to the totals from this point in time onward.

Where did I get all the statewide totals? Well, I first went directly to each state's SOS website to see what I could find. Then I double check that against two aggregators: Huffington Post (for which "pollster.com" is very, very respected) and Politico (which also does extremely good work at collecting data) to see which totals matched up. Sometimes, a state already gives new totals to AP before updating its own website, but Politico and HuffPo get this data almost immediately.

This means that the stats are bound to change, but most likely, the partisan ranking that has developed from 2012 will probably not change.

Here are the current stats, with a short analysis underneath, and then the partisan rankings table, updated with the newest margins:


USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %










2012 61261419 58202671 1941786 121405876 50,46% 47,94% 1,60% 3058748 2,52%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26%
Diff: -8238009 -1747652 -67743 -10053404 -2,41% 2,34% 0,07% -6490357 -4,74%




















Alabama 2012 793620 1252453 18626 2064699 38,44% 60,66% 0,90% 458833 22,22%
Alabama 2008 813479 1266546 19794 2099819 38,74% 60,32% 0,94% 453067 21,58%
Diff: -19859 -14093 -1168 -35120 -0,30% 0,34% -0,04% 5766 0,65%










Alaska 2012 91696 121234 9791 222721 41,17% 54,43% 4,40% 29538 13,26%
Alaska 2008 123594 193841 8762 326197 37,89% 59,42% 2,69% 70247 21,54%
Diff: -31898 -72607 1029 -103476 3,28% -4,99% 1,71% -40709 -8,27%










Arizona 2012 784554 977431 28938 1790923 43,81% 54,58% 1,62% 192877 10,77%
Arizona 2008 1034707 1230111 39020 2303838 44,91% 53,39% 1,69% 195404 8,48%
Diff: -250153 -252680 -10082 -512915 -1,11% 1,18% -0,08% -2527 2,29%










Arkansas 2012 389879 639569 26903 1056351 36,91% 60,55% 2,55% 249690 23,64%
Arkansas 2008 422310 638017 26290 1086617 38,86% 58,72% 2,42% 215707 19,85%
Diff: -32431 1552 613 -30266 -1,96% 1,83% 0,13% 33983 3,79%










California 2012 5658572 3685045 224015 9567632 59,14% 38,52% 2,34% 1973527 20,63%
California 2008 8274473 5011781 291011 13577265 60,94% 36,91% 2,14% 3262692 24,03%
Diff: -2615901 -1326736 -66996 -4009633 -1,80% 1,60% 0,20% -1289165 -3,40%










Colorado 2012 1252269 1135165 56902 2444336 51,23% 46,44% 2,33% 117104 4,79%
Colorado 2008 1288633 1073629 39200 2401462 53,66% 44,71% 1,63% 215004 8,95%
Diff: -36364 61536 17702 42874 -2,43% 1,73% 0,70% -97900 -4,16%










Connecticut 2012 905123 623286 18087 1546496 58,53% 40,30% 1,17% 281837 18,22%
Connecticut 2008 997773 629428 19592 1646793 60,59% 38,22% 1,19% 368345 22,37%
Diff: -92650 -6142 -1505 -100297 -2,06% 2,08% -0,02% -86508 -4,14%










Delaware 2012 242547 165476 5821 413844 58,61% 39,99% 1,41% 77071 18,62%
Delaware 2008 255459 152374 4783 412616 61,91% 36,93% 1,16% 103085 24,98%
Diff: -12912 13102 1038 1228 -3,30% 3,06% 0,25% -26014 -6,36%










DC 2012 222332 17337 4326 243995 91,12% 7,11% 1,77% 204995 84,02%
DC 2008 245800 17367 2686 265853 92,46% 6,53% 1,01% 228433 85,92%
Diff: -23468 -30 1640 -21858 -1,34% 0,57% 0,76% -23438 -1,91%










Florida 2012 4185616 4127520 71980 8385116 49,92% 49,22% 0,86% 58096 0,69%
Florida 2008 4282367 4046219 83275 8411861 50,91% 48,10% 0,99% 236148 2,81%
Diff: -96751 81301 -11295 -26745 -0,99% 1,12% -0,13% -178052 -2,11%










Georgia 2012 1761761 2070221 45056 3877038 45,44% 53,40% 1,16% 308460 7,96%
Georgia 2008 1844123 2048759 39276 3932158 46,90% 52,10% 1,00% 204636 5,20%
Diff: -82362 21462 5780 -55120 -1,46% 1,29% 0,16% 103824 2,75%










Hawaii 2012 306545 120975 7019 434539 70,54% 27,84% 1,62% 185570 42,71%
Hawaii 2008 325871 120566 7131 453568 71,85% 26,58% 1,57% 205305 45,26%
Diff: -19326 409 -112 -19029 -1,30% 1,26% 0,04% -19735 -2,56%










Idaho 2012 212560 420750 18561 651871 32,61% 64,54% 2,85% 208190 31,94%
Idaho 2008 236440 403012 19002 658454 35,91% 61,21% 2,89% 166572 25,30%
Diff: -23880 17738 -441 -6583 -3,30% 3,34% -0,04% 41618 6,64%










Illinois 2012 2934826 2094526 84374 5113726 57,39% 40,96% 1,65% 840300 16,43%
Illinois 2008 3419348 2031179 77828 5528355 61,85% 36,74% 1,41% 1388169 25,11%
Diff: -484522 63347 6546 -414629 -4,46% 4,22% 0,24% -547869 -8,68%










Indiana 2012 1140329 1412495 49833 2602657 43,81% 54,27% 1,91% 272166 10,46%
Indiana 2008 1374039 1345648 35903 2755590 49,86% 48,83% 1,30% 28391 1,03%
Diff: -233710 66847 13930 -152933 -6,05% 5,44% 0,61% -300557 11,49%










Iowa 2012 816429 727928 21611 1565968 52,14% 46,48% 1,38% 88501 5,65%
Iowa 2008 828940 682379 25804 1537123 53,93% 44,39% 1,68% 146561 9,53%
Diff: -12511 45549 -4193 28845 -1,79% 2,09% -0,30% -58060 -3,88%










Kansas 2012 427918 678719 24607 1131244 37,83% 60,00% 2,18% 250801 22,17%
Kansas 2008 514765 699655 23996 1238416 41,57% 56,50% 1,94% 184890 14,93%
Diff: -86847 -20936 611 -107172 -3,74% 3,50% 0,24% 65911 7,24%










Kentucky 2012 679356 1087136 30272 1796764 37,81% 60,51% 1,68% 407780 22,70%
Kentucky 2008 751985 1048462 27140 1827587 41,15% 57,37% 1,49% 296477 16,22%
Diff: -72629 38674 3132 -30823 -3,34% 3,14% 0,20% 111303 6,47%










Louisiana 2008 808611 1152788 32637 1994036 40,55% 57,81% 1,64% 344177 17,26%
Louisiana 2012 782989 1148275 29497 1960761 39,93% 58,56% 1,50% 365286 18,63%
Diff: 25622 4513 3140 33275 0,62% -0,75% 0,13% -21109 -1,37%










Maine 2012 397754 290437 22547 710738 55,96% 40,86% 3,17% 107317 15,10%
Maine 2008 421923 295273 13967 731163 57,71% 40,38% 1,91% 126650 17,32%
Diff: -24169 -4836 8580 -20425 -1,74% 0,48% 1,26% -19333 -2,22%










Maryland 2012 1534603 910971 52976 2498550 61,42% 36,46% 2,12% 623632 24,96%
Maryland 2008 1629467 959862 42267 2631596 61,92% 36,47% 1,61% 669605 25,44%
Diff: -94864 -48891 10709 -133046 -0,50% -0,01% 0,51% -45973 -0,49%










Massachusetts 2012 1900575 1177370 50189 3128134 60,76% 37,64% 1,60% 723205 23,12%
Massachusetts 2008 1904098 1108854 68117 3081069 61,80% 35,99% 2,21% 795244 25,81%
Diff: -3523 68516 -17928 47065 -1,04% 1,65% -0,61% -72039 -2,69%










Michigan 2012 2560016 2111141 43082 4714239 54,30% 44,78% 0,91% 448875 9,52%
Michigan 2008 2872579 2048639 88976 5010194 57,33% 40,89% 1,78% 823940 16,45%
Diff: -312563 62502 -45894 -295955 -3,03% 3,89% -0,86% -375065 -6,92%










Minnesota 2012 1543213 1321155 59502 2923870 52,78% 45,19% 2,04% 222058 7,59%
Minnesota 2008 1573354 1275409 61606 2910369 54,06% 43,82% 2,12% 297945 10,24%
Diff: -30141 45746 -2104 13501 -1,28% 1,36% -0,08% -75887 -2,64%










Mississippi 2012 525909 670308 11416 1207633 43,55% 55,51% 0,95% 144399 11,96%
Mississippi 2008 554662 724597 10606 1289865 43,00% 56,18% 0,82% 169935 13,17%
Diff: -28753 -54289 810 -82232 0,55% -0,67% 0,12% -25536 -1,22%










Missouri 2012 1215031 1478961 50943 2744935 44,26% 53,88% 1,86% 263930 9,62%
Missouri 2008 1441911 1445814 41224 2928949 49,23% 49,36% 1,41% 3903 0,13%
Diff: -226880 33147 9719 -184014 -4,97% 4,52% 0,45% 260027 9,48%










Montana 2012 200489 264973 13923 479385 41,82% 55,27% 2,90% 64484 13,45%
Montana 2008 232159 243882 16709 492750 47,11% 49,49% 3,39% 11723 2,38%
Diff: -31670 21091 -2786 -13365 -5,29% 5,78% -0,49% 52761 11,07%










Nebraska 2012 290219 464021 12967 767207 37,83% 60,48% 1,69% 173802 22,65%
Nebraska 2008 333319 452979 14983 801281 41,60% 56,53% 1,87% 119660 14,93%
Diff: -43100 11042 -2016 -34074 -3,77% 3,95% -0,18% 54142 7,72%










NE-02 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
2008 138809 135439 3561 277809 49,97% 48,75% 1,28% 3370 1,21%
Diff: -138809 -135439 -3561 -277809 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3370 #DIV/0!










Nevada 2012 529005 462607 19895 1011507 52,30% 45,73% 1,97% 66398 6,56%
Nevada 2008 533736 412827 21285 967848 55,15% 42,65% 2,20% 120909 12,49%
Diff: -4731 49780 -1390 43659 -2,85% 3,08% -0,23% -54511 -5,93%










New Hampshire 2012 368529 327870 8475 704874 52,28% 46,51% 1,20% 40659 5,77%
New Hampshire 2008 384826 316534 9610 710970 54,13% 44,52% 1,35% 68292 9,61%
Diff: -16297 11336 -1135 -6096 -1,84% 1,99% -0,15% -27633 -3,84%










New Jersey 2012 1961184 1383269 34853 3379306 58,04% 40,93% 1,03% 577915 17,10%
2008 2215422 1613207 48778 3877407 57,14% 41,61% 1,26% 602215 15,53%
Diff: -254238 -229938 -13925 -498101 0,90% -0,67% -0,23% -24300 1,57%










New Mexico 2012 408312 331915 32102 772329 52,87% 42,98% 4,16% 76397 9,89%
New Mexico 2008 472422 346832 10904 830158 56,91% 41,78% 1,31% 125590 15,13%
Diff: -64110 -14917 21198 -57829 -4,04% 1,20% 2,84% -49193 -5,24%










New York 2012 3873650 2224936 86473 6185059 62,63% 35,97% 1,40% 1648714 26,66%
New York 2008 4804945 2752771 83232 7640948 62,88% 36,03% 1,09% 2052174 26,86%
Diff: -931295 -527835 3241 -1455889 -0,25% -0,05% 0,31% -403460 -0,20%










North Carolina 2012 2178388 2275853 44798 4499039 48,42% 50,59% 1,00% 97465 2,17%
North Carolina 2008 2142651 2128474 39664 4310789 49,70% 49,38% 0,92% 14177 0,33%
Diff: 35737 147379 5134 188250 -1,29% 1,21% 0,08% -111642 2,50%










North Dakota 2012 124490 187586 9599 321675 38,70% 58,32% 2,98% 63096 19,61%
North Dakota 2008 141403 168887 7448 317738 44,50% 53,15% 2,34% 27484 8,65%
Diff: -16913 18699 2151 3937 -5,80% 5,16% 0,64% 35612 10,96%










Ohio 2012 2697308 2593789 88150 5379247 50,14% 48,22% 1,64% 103519 1,92%
Ohio 2008 2940044 2677820 103951 5721815 51,38% 46,80% 1,82% 262224 4,58%
Diff: -242736 -84031 -15801 -342568 -1,24% 1,42% -0,18% -158705 -2,66%










Oklahoma 2012 442787 889710 0 1332497 33,23% 66,77% 0,00% 446923 33,54%
Oklahoma 2008 502496 960165 0 1462661 34,35% 65,65% 0,00% 457669 31,29%
Diff: -59709 -70455 0 -130164 -1,13% 1,13% 0,00% -10746 2,25%










Oregon 2012 910586 717409 58348 1686343 54,00% 42,54% 3,46% 193177 11,46%
Oregon 2008 1037291 738475 52098 1827864 56,75% 40,40% 2,85% 298816 16,35%
Diff: -126705 -21066 6250 -141521 -2,75% 2,14% 0,61% -105639 -4,89%










Pennsylvania 2012 2907448 2619583 69468 5596499 51,95% 46,81% 1,24% 287865 5,14%
Pennsylvania 2008 3276363 2655885 83228 6015476 54,47% 44,15% 1,38% 620478 10,31%
Diff: -368915 -36302 -13760 -418977 -2,51% 2,66% -0,14% -332613 -5,17%










Rhode Island 2012 278737 156858 9125 444720 62,68% 35,27% 2,05% 121879 27,41%
Rhode Island 2008 296571 165391 9804 471766 62,86% 35,06% 2,08% 131180 27,81%
Diff: -17834 -8533 -679 -27046 -0,19% 0,21% -0,03% -9301 -0,40%










South Carolina 2012 845756 1049507 26100 1921363 44,02% 54,62% 1,36% 203751 10,60%
South Carolina 2008 862449 1034896 23624 1920969 44,90% 53,87% 1,23% 172447 8,98%
Diff: -16693 14611 2476 394 -0,88% 0,75% 0,13% 31304 1,63%










South Dakota 2012 144997 210560 8166 363723 39,86% 57,89% 2,25% 65563 18,03%
South Dakota 2008 170924 203054 7997 381975 44,75% 53,16% 2,09% 32130 8,41%
Diff: -25927 7506 169 -18252 -4,88% 4,73% 0,15% 33433 9,61%










Tennessee 2012 959054 1459965 35451 2454470 39,07% 59,48% 1,44% 500911 20,41%
Tennessee 2008 1087437 1479178 35367 2601982 41,79% 56,85% 1,36% 391741 15,06%
Diff: -128383 -19213 84 -147512 -2,72% 2,63% 0,09% 109170 5,35%










Texas 2012 3294444 4555799 124328 7974571 41,31% 57,13% 1,56% 1261355 15,82%
Texas 2008 3528633 4479328 79247 8087208 43,63% 55,39% 0,98% 950695 11,76%
Diff: -234189 76471 45081 -112637 -2,32% 1,74% 0,58% 310660 4,06%










Utah 2012 229463 671747 22091 923301 24,85% 72,75% 2,39% 442284 47,90%
Utah 2008 327670 596030 33781 957481 34,22% 62,25% 3,53% 268360 28,03%
Diff: -98207 75717 -11690 -34180 -9,37% 10,51% -1,14% 173924 19,87%










Vermont 2012 144915 70692 4958 220565 65,70% 32,05% 2,25% 74223 33,65%
Vermont 2008 219262 98974 6810 325046 67,46% 30,45% 2,10% 120288 37,01%
Diff: 35195 -22206 -1852 11137 -1,75% 1,60% 0,15% 57401 -3,36%










Virginia 2012 1905528 1789618 52712 3747858 50,84% 47,75% 1,41% 115910 3,09%
Virginia 2008 1959532 1725005 38723 3723260 52,63% 46,33% 1,04% 234527 6,30%
Diff: -54004 64613 13989 24598 -1,79% 1,42% 0,37% -118617 -3,21%










Washington 2012 1356831 1032590 54821 2444242 55,51% 42,25% 2,24% 324241 13,27%
Washington 2008 1750848 1229216 73152 3053216 57,34% 40,26% 2,40% 521632 17,08%
Diff: -394017 -196626 -18331 -608974 -1,83% 1,99% -0,15% -197391 -3,82%










West Virginia 2012 234925 412406 14312 661643 35,51% 62,33% 2,16% 177481 26,82%
West Virginia 2008 303857 397466 13545 714868 42,51% 55,60% 1,89% 93609 13,09%
Diff: -68932 14940 767 -53225 -7,00% 6,73% 0,27% 83872 13,73%










Wisconsin 2012 1613950 1408746 33917 3056613 52,80% 46,09% 1,11% 205204 6,71%
Wisconsin 2008 1677211 1262393 43813 2983417 56,22% 42,31% 1,47% 414818 13,90%
Diff: -63261 146353 -9896 73196 -3,42% 3,77% -0,36% -209614 -7,19%










Wyoming 2012 68780 170265 6740 245785 27,98% 69,27% 2,74% 101485 41,29%
Wyoming 2008 82868 164958 5023 252849 32,77% 65,24% 1,99% 82090 32,47%
Diff: -14088 5307 1717 -7064 -4,79% 4,03% 0,76% 19395 8,82%


Some take-aways:

The Blue-States: Obama suffered margin losses (some large, some minimal) in every state except New Jersey. There, at least for now, his margin increased by +1.57% to a margin of +17.10. But as noted above, due to the storm, New Jerseyans are still voting, and this statistic may change again.

The Red-States: Mitt Romney improved on John McCain's margins in every Red State except for: Alaska, Lousiana and Mississippi. Amazingly, in those three states, Obama's numbers improved, and the margins shrunk. If these stats stay as they are, then in terms of partisan shift (SWING), 2012 will become a mirror image of 2008, for in 2008, 46 of 51 "states" shifted BLUE. In 2012, it looks as if 47 of 51 "states" have shifted RED.

Some RED states posted unbelievably large margins for Mitt Romney, and those states deserve some attention.

UTAH, just as I predicted, was Romney's strongest state and is no2 No. 1 in the conservative partisan rankings. The margin stands at Romney +47.90%, which is an absolute blowout margin, but has not surpassed Reagan's margin from 1980 (Reagan +52.20%) and therefore Romney did not set a GOP record in Utah.

Just as predicted, and without one single piece of poll data for the state, Wyoming came in 2nd for Romney, with +41.29% (I projected Romney +40.00).

But the real surprise was in Appalachia/Bible-Belt, which really, really, really turned agains the president:




Alabama (which encompasses only a part of Appalachia) went for Romney by +22.22, a slight improvement over 2008.

But  Arkansas, Kentucky, MIssouri and West Virginia all posted major changes:

Arkansas, Romney +23.64%, 4 points more to the Right over 2008
Tennessee, Romney 20.41%, 5.4 points more to the Right over 2008.
Kentucky, Romney +22.70%, 6.5 points more to the Right over 2008.
Missouri, Romney +9.62%, 9.5 points more to the Right over 2008
West Virginia, Romney +26.82%, a whalloping 13.7 points to the Right over 2008.

West Virginia has moved from 14th up to 5th place in the Conservative partisan rankings. That is a major shift. And his margin almost upended Nixon's GOP record-setter +27.22% margin from 1972, and who knows, maybe at the end of the day, his margin will continue to rise another half-point and then maybe Romney will indeed have set a GOP superlative.

Conversely, in a major surprise that I bet no one saw coming, Alaska moved way DOWN the conservative rankings, from 6th to 17th.

Most of these states were exactly the states (alongside Oklahoma) that trended against Obama in 2008 and resisted the Blue national swing, and those states were at the spear-head of the RED national swing this time around.

Later, I will do an intensive analysis of Obama's so-called "Midwest Firewall", which held entirely, but here already a note about the  Pennslvania/Ohio symbiosis that I have mentioned in many battleground reports:



DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %
Pennsylvania 2012 2907448 2619583 69468 5596499 51,95% 46,81% 1,24% 287865 5,14%
Pennsylvania 2008 3276363 2655885 83228 6015476 54,47% 44,15% 1,38% 620478 10,31%
Diff: -368915 -36302 -13760 -418977 -2,51% 2,66% -0,14% -332613 -5,17%


-and-



DEMGOPINDTotalDEM %GOP %IND %MarginMar %
Ohio 20122697308259378988150537924750,14%48,22%1,64%1035191,92%
Ohio 200829400442677820103951572181551,38%46,80%1,82%2622244,58%
Diff:-242736-84031-15801-342568-1,24%1,42%-0,18%-158705-2,66%

Obama's Pennsylvania margin is currently about 2.2 points more to the Left than his Ohio margin.

In 2008, Obama's Pennsylvania margin was 5.7 points more to the Left than his Ohio margin.

In 2004, Kerry's Pennsylvania margin was 4.6 points points more to the Left than Bush's Ohio margin.

In 2000, Gore's Pennsylvania margin was 8.2 points more to the Left than Bush's Ohio margin.

In 1996, Clinton's Pennsylvania margin was 2.8 points more to the Left than his Ohio margin.

In 1992, Clinton's Pennsylvania margin was 7.2 points more to the Left than his Ohio margin.

In 1988, Bush's Pennsylvania margin was 8.5 points less (more to the Left) than his Ohio margin.

In 1984, Reagan's  Pennsylvania margin was 11.4 points less (more to the Left) than his Ohio margin.

In 1980, Reagan's  Pennsylvania margin was 3.5 points less (more to the Left) than his Ohio margin.

In 1976, Carter's Pennsylvania margin was 2.4 points more to the Left than his Ohio margin.

You can compare the stats for Pennsylvania vs. Ohio HERE and HERE for yourself, to see.

Compare 2012 with 1996 and 1980 (all were Democratic re-election campaigns, two wins, one loss). Notice the similarity in the numbers?

In times of duress, the span in margin between Pennsylvania and Ohio is around 3 points - to the Left for Pennsylvania.

For this very reason I was quite sure, based on the OHIO polling, that President Obama would retain Pennsylvania. As John King said on CNN on election vis-a-vis a number of states, but applied here, there is just too deep a Democratic DNA in this state for a Republican to win it if he is already struggling in Ohio.

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The 2012 Partisan Rankings (revised for CT and NJ):

Form 1: direct state to state relationship, 2012 over 2008:


Rank '12 State Margin '12 EV 2012
Rank '08 State Margin - '08 Diff: '12/'08
1 DC 84,02 3
1 DC 85,93 -1,91
2 HI 42,71 4
2 HI 45,26 -2,55
3 VT 33,65 3
3 VT 37,01 -3,36
4 RI 27,41 4
4 RI 27,81 -0,40
5 NY 26,66 29
5 NY 26,86 -0,20
6 MD 24,96 10
7 MD 25,44 -0,48
7 MA 23,12 11
6 MA 25,81 -2,69
8 CA 20,63 55
10 CA 24,03 -3,40
9 DE 18,62 3
9 DE 24,98 -6,36
10 CT 18,22 7
11 CT 22,37 -4,15
11 NJ 17,10 14
16 NJ 15,53 1,57
12 IL 16,43 20
8 IL 25,11 -8,68
13 ME 15,10 4
12 ME 17,32 -2,22
14 WA 13,27 12
13 WA 17,08 -3,81
15 OR 11,46 7
15 OR 16,35 -4,89
16 NM 9,89 5
17 NM 15,13 -5,24
17 MI 9,52 16
14 MI 16,44 -6,92
18 MN 7,59 10
21 MN 10,24 -2,65
19 WI 6,71 10
18 WI 13,90 -7,19
20 NV 6,56 6
19 NV 12,49 -5,93
21 NH 5,77 4
22 NH 9,61 -3,84
22 IA 5,65 6
23 IA 9,53 -3,88
23 PA 5,14 20
20 PA 10,31 -5,17
24 CO 4,79 9
24 CO 8,95 -4,16
25 VA 3,09 13
25 VA 6,30 -3,21
26 OH 1,92 18
26 OH 4,58 -2,66
27 FL 0,69 29
27 FL 2,81 -2,12



332

Tot:












2,52 538
-- USA 7,26 -4,74









Rank '12 State Margin '12 EV 2012
Rank '08 State Margin - '08 Diff 2.
24 NC 2,17 15
29 NC 0,33 2,50
23 GA 7,96 16
20 GA 5,20 2,76
22 MO 9,62 10
22 MO 0,13 9,49
21 IN 10,46 11
28 IN 1,03 11,49
20 SC 10,60 9
16 SC 8,98 1,62
19 AZ 10,77 11
18 AZ 8,48 2,29
18 MS 11,96 6
13 MS 13,17 -1,21
17 AK 13,26 3
6 AK 21,54 -8,28
16 MT 13,45 3
21 MT 2,38 11,07
15 TX 15,82 38
15 TX 11,76 4,06
14 LA 17,26 8
8 LA 18,63 -1,37
13 SD 18,03 3
19 SD 8,41 9,62
12 ND 19,61 3
17 ND 8,65 10,96
11 TN 20,41 11
10 TN 15,06 5,35
10 KS 22,17 6
12 KS 14,92 7,25
9 AL 22,22 9
5 AL 21,58 0,64
8 NE* 22,65 5
11 NE* 14,93 7,72
7 KY 22,70 8
9 KY 16,22 6,48
6 AR 23,64 6
7 AR 27,00 -3,36
5 WV 26,82 5
14 WV 13,09 13,73
4 ID 31,94 4
4 ID 25,30 6,64
3 OK 33,54 7
2 OK 31,29 2,25
2 WY 41,29 3
1 WY 32,24 9,05
1 UT 47,90 6
3 UT 28,02 19,88



206

Tot:


Form 2: Direct Rank to Rank relationship, 2012 over 2008:


Rank '12 State Margin '12
Rank '08 State Margin - '08
1 DC 84,02
1 DC 85,93
2 HI 42,71
2 HI 45,26
3 VT 33,65
3 VT 37,01
4 RI 27,41
4 RI 27,81
5 NY 26,66
5 NY 26,86
6 MD 24,96
6 MA 25,81
7 MA 23,12
7 MD 25,44
8 CA 20,63
8 IL 25,11
9 DE 18,62
9 DE 24,98
10 CT 18,22
10 CA 24,03
11 NJ 17,10
11 CT 22,37
12 IL 16,43
12 ME 17,32
13 ME 15,10
13 WA 17,08
14 WA 13,27
14 MI 16,44
15 OR 11,46
15 OR 16,35
16 NM 9,89
16 NJ 15,53
17 MI 9,52
17 NM 15,13
18 MN 7,59
18 WI 13,90
19 WI 6,71
19 NV 12,49
20 NV 6,56
20 PA 10,31
21 NH 5,77
21 MN 10,24
22 IA 5,65
22 NH 9,61
23 PA 5,14
23 IA 9,53
24 CO 4,79
24 CO 8,95
25 VA 3,09
25 VA 6,30
26 OH 1,92
26 OH 4,58
27 FL 0,69
27 FL 2,81
24 NC 2,17
28 IN 1,03
23 GA 7,96
29 NC 0,33
22 MO 9,62
22 MO 0,13
21 IN 10,46
21 MT 2,38
20 SC 10,60
20 GA 5,20
19 AZ 10,77
19 SD 8,41
18 MS 11,96
18 AZ 8,48
17 AK 13,26
17 ND 8,65
16 MT 13,45
16 SC 8,98
15 TX 15,82
15 TX 11,76
14 LA 17,26
14 WV 13,09
13 SD 18,03
13 MS 13,17
12 ND 19,61
12 KS 14,92
11 TN 20,41
11 NE* 14,93
10 KS 22,17
10 TN 15,06
9 AL 22,22
9 KY 16,22
8 NE* 22,65
8 LA 18,63
7 KY 22,70
6 AK 21,54
6 AR 23,64
5 AL 21,58
5 WV 26,82
4 ID 25,30
4 ID 31,94
7 AR 27,00
3 OK 33,54
3 UT 28,02
2 WY 41,29
2 OK 31,29
1 UT 47,90
1 WY 32,24








USA 2,52
-- USA 7,26








There is amazing stability in the Democratic partisan rankings, rank to rank, 2012 over 2008:

the states shaded in grey retained exactly the same rank as they had in 2008. There were 12 such state, 10 in the Democratic rankings and 2 in the Republican rankings. This number may grow to 15, possibly 15, depending.


The first five Democratic states have the same rankings as in 2008: DC, HI, VT, RI and NY, places 1,2,3,4 and 5 respectively for both cycles.


Right now, MD and MA have switched places between 6 and 7, but notice how very, very close the margins are and it is conceivable that by the time the end canvasses are out, that MA will slightly overtake MD and then those two state would also have the same ranking numbers as they did in 2008. It is also conceivable that NV, which is currently right under Wisconsin, may overtake the Badger State, and if it does, then it would have also retained ranking number 19.


Amazingly, the bottom four states on the Democratic Partisan rankings also retained their numeric order exactly: CO (24), VA (25), OH (26) and FL (27).


In 2008, Obama's national margin was between his CO and VA margins. Right now, his margin is between the OH and VA margins, but if this national margin continues to rise as it did in 2008, then very likely, once again, his national margin will be nestled right in-between the CO and VA margins. Now, that is stability.


And quite amazingly, two more really interesting things:


 the number 15 state for both sides retained it's ranking: OR on the Democratic side and TX on the Republican side.


And probably the most amazing of all: Missouri retained it's position of 22 (conservative), despite a massive margin change of over 9 points to the right. 


This partisan ranking list may change again, but for the most part, it is likely set in stone.


Ok, enough preliminary analysis for now. I will be delving much more into other states with the next preliminary analysis!


Hope you enjoyed these insights.

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