Here is a PRELIMINARY Partisan ranking for 2012. The column that is important here is "Margin '12":
|Rank '08||State||EV 2012||Margin - '08||Diff: '12/'08||Margin '12||State||Rank '12|
|Rank '08||State||EV 2012||Margin - '08||Diff 2.||Margin '12||State||Rank '12|
We see that the first 5 states in the Partisan Rankings for the Democrats for 2012 are the same 5 states as for 2008. We see that UTAH has reclaimed it's place as the no. 1 Conservative state in the Union. The 2 states that are highlighted in orange are the two GOP pick-up states from 2012. There were no Democratic pick-up states in 2012.
Obama won 14 states with landslide margins of +10 or above (NM, with +9.90, is in that category): in 2008, there were 23 such states.
Notice how close Obama's winning margin in Virginia is to Romney's winning margin in North Carolina - the two states, in terms of performance last night, are practically mirror-images of each other.
Notice that South Dakota and North Dakota are next to each other in the partisan rankings, and also the Nebraska and Kansas are next to each other in the partisan rankings - for now.
Surely a number of these margins are going to change again. THESE NUMBERS ARE ONLY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS - do not quote them as gospel. Dave has not gotten around to the most recent reports for all states: he currently has Connecticut at +3.03, but all over the place, I am seeing +8 for Obama. All this means is that Dave hasn't input the new information for CT yet. But most of it is there.
Once Florida is officially called, then I will be collecting the data myself from each SOS website,as much as I can. But Dave Leip really is the master of finding the 3rd party and write-in votes. He is absolutely the definitive source for this kind of stuff and no one in the world does it better than he.
The final numbers happen when the final canvasses, signed by the respective Secretaries of State for each of the entities in the Electoral College, are sent to Congress to be officially entered into the congressional record, and even then, adjustments AFTER the fact are allowed (this happened in Mississippi from 2004 when 10,000 extra votes were erroneously added to Bush's total and then corrected - a year later).
Right now, Obama has won Ohio by +2, which means that the Columbus Dispatch Poll, which was released on 11/04, hit the nail on the head, at least for now: it projected Obama 50 / Romney 48 and currently, it is Obama 50.29 to Romney 48.29, +2 margin. Now, this will probably change again, and I suspect that Obama's average will move up because of the provisional ballots yet to be sorted through. So, at the end of the day, it will probably mean that the Angus Reid poll (Obama +3) will be the Gold Standard for this state.
Any questions? Then write on this thread, I will be happy to answer them.
Once again, these are only PRELIMINARY NUMBERS.