07 November 2012

Partisan Rankings 2012 - Preliminary totals only

So, with most of the vote in, Dave Leip at USELECTIONATLAS.ORG is busy inputting the numbers.

Here is a PRELIMINARY Partisan ranking for 2012. The column that is important here is "Margin '12":
Rank '08StateEV 2012Margin - '08Diff: '12/'08Margin '12StateRank '12
1DC385,93-1,9184,02DC1
2HI445,26-2,5542,71HI2
3VT337,01-0,8936,12VT3
4RI427,810,0227,83RI4
5NY2926,86-0,0626,80NY5
7MD1025,44-0,3825,06MD6
6MA1125,81-2,3923,42MA7
10CA5524,03-3,4820,55CA8
9DE324,98-6,3618,62DE9
16NJ1415,531,4216,95NJ10
8IL2025,11-8,8816,23IL11
12ME417,32-1,6815,64ME12
13WA1217,08-4,6112,47WA13
17NM515,13-5,239,90NM14
15OR716,35-6,569,79OR15
11CT722,37-14,378,00CT16
21MN1010,24-2,657,59MN17
14MI1616,44-8,927,52MI18
18WI1013,90-7,286,62WI19
19NV612,49-5,936,56NV20
20PA2010,31-4,126,19PA21
22NH49,61-3,885,73NH22
23IA69,53-4,105,43IA23
24CO98,95-4,124,83CO24
25VA136,30-3,582,72VA25
26OH184,58-2,582,00OH26
27FL292,81-2,250,56FL27

Tot:332












--USA5387,26-5,002,26









Rank '08StateEV 2012Margin - '08Diff 2.Margin '12StateRank '12
29NC150,332,482,15NC24
20GA165,202,777,97GA23
22MO100,139,499,62MO22
28IN111,0311,7710,74IN21
16SC98,981,8710,85SC20
18AZ118,483,0911,57AZ19
13MS613,17-1,4311,74MS18
21MT32,3810,8813,26MT17
6AK321,54-8,1413,40AK16
15TX3811,764,0715,83TX15
8LA818,63-1,3817,25LA14
19SD38,419,6218,03SD13
17ND38,6511,0819,73ND12
10TN1115,065,3520,41TN11
9KY816,225,2421,46KY10
5AL921,580,3821,96AL9
12KS614,927,2322,15KS8
11NE*514,937,7422,67NE*7
7AR627,00-3,3323,67AR6
14WV513,0913,7026,79WV5
4ID425,307,2232,52ID4
2OK731,292,2533,54OK3
1WY332,248,5240,76WY2
3UT628,0219,7547,77UT1

Tot:206





We see that the first 5 states in the Partisan Rankings for the Democrats for 2012 are the same 5 states as for 2008. We see that UTAH has reclaimed it's place as the no. 1 Conservative state in the Union. The 2 states that are highlighted in orange are the two GOP pick-up states from 2012. There were no Democratic pick-up states in 2012.


Obama won 14 states with landslide margins of +10 or above (NM, with +9.90, is in that category): in 2008, there were 23 such states.

Notice how close Obama's winning margin in Virginia is to Romney's winning margin in North Carolina - the two states, in terms of performance last night, are practically mirror-images of each other.

Notice that South Dakota and North Dakota are next to each other in the partisan rankings, and also the Nebraska and Kansas are next to each other in the partisan rankings - for now.

Surely a number of these margins are going to change again. THESE NUMBERS ARE ONLY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS - do not quote them as gospel. Dave has not gotten around to the most recent reports for all states: he currently has Connecticut at +3.03, but all over the place, I am seeing +8 for Obama. All this means is that Dave hasn't input the new information for CT yet. But most of it is there.

Once Florida is officially called, then I will be collecting the data myself from each SOS website,as much as I can. But Dave Leip really is the master of finding the 3rd party and write-in votes. He is absolutely the definitive source for this kind of stuff and no one in the world does it better than he.

The final numbers happen when the final canvasses, signed by the respective Secretaries of State for each of the entities in the Electoral College, are sent to Congress to be officially entered into the congressional record, and even then, adjustments AFTER the fact are allowed (this happened in Mississippi from 2004 when 10,000 extra votes were erroneously added to Bush's total and then corrected - a year later).

Right now, Obama has won Ohio by +2, which means that the Columbus Dispatch Poll, which was released on 11/04, hit the nail on the head, at least for now: it projected Obama 50 / Romney 48 and currently, it is Obama 50.29 to Romney 48.29, +2 margin. Now, this will probably change again, and I suspect that Obama's average will move up because of the provisional ballots yet to be sorted through. So, at the end of the day, it will probably mean that the Angus Reid poll (Obama +3) will be the Gold Standard for this state.

Any questions? Then write on this thread, I will be happy to answer them.

Once again, these are only PRELIMINARY NUMBERS.

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