13 November 2012

11/13 National Totals sub-report: Obama now at +2.87%

Major vote increases out of California, Maryland and Virginia.  In Virginia, Obama's margin has moved upward from +3.09% on 11/09 to +3.73% today, a major shift upward.

We are now at just under 124 million votes cast, currently 6.7 millions votes less than were cast in 2008, but 1.7 million more votes than were cast in 2004. So, there is now no doubt about it: 2012 will be the second largest election in our nations history and will follow the pattern on 1992 to 1996, where less votes were cast in Bill Clinton's re-election than in his first election. Some analysis below the table.


As of 11/13/2012, one week after the election, and 2,583,967 more votes than on 11/09:

USA DEM GOP IND Total DEM % GOP % IND % Margin Mar %










2012 62775098 59214269 2000476 123989843 50,63% 47,76% 1,61% 3560829 2,87%
2008 69499428 59950323 2009529 131459280 52,87% 45,60% 1,53% 9549105 7,26%
Diff: -6724330 -736054 -9053 -7469437 -2,24% 2,15% 0,08% -5988276 -4,39%




















Alabama 2012 793620 1252453 18626 2064699 38,44% 60,66% 0,90% 458833 22,22%
Alabama 2008 813479 1266546 19794 2099819 38,74% 60,32% 0,94% 453067 21,58%
Diff: -19859 -14093 -1168 -35120 -0,30% 0,34% -0,04% 5766 0,65%










Alaska 2012 102138 136848 10841 249827 40,88% 54,78% 4,34% 34710 13,89%
Alaska 2008 123594 193841 8762 326197 37,89% 59,42% 2,69% 70247 21,54%
Diff: -21456 -56993 2079 -76370 2,99% -4,65% 1,65% -35537 -7,64%










Arizona 2012 929421 1141974 42615 2114010 43,96% 54,02% 2,02% 212553 10,05%
Arizona 2008 1034707 1230111 39020 2303838 44,91% 53,39% 1,69% 195404 8,48%
Diff: -105286 -88137 3595 -189828 -0,95% 0,63% 0,32% 17149 1,57%










Arkansas 2012 391975 644127 27158 1063260 36,87% 60,58% 2,55% 252152 23,71%
Arkansas 2008 422310 638017 26290 1086617 38,86% 58,72% 2,42% 215707 19,85%
Diff: -30335 6110 868 -23357 -2,00% 1,86% 0,13% 36445 3,86%










California 2012 6414573 4136120 257636 10808329 59,35% 38,27% 2,38% 2278453 21,08%
California 2008 8274473 5011781 291011 13577265 60,94% 36,91% 2,14% 3262692 24,03%
Diff: -1859900 -875661 -33375 -2768936 -1,60% 1,35% 0,24% -984239 -2,95%










Colorado 2012 1252679 1135403 56930 2445012 51,23% 46,44% 2,33% 117276 4,80%
Colorado 2008 1288633 1073629 39200 2401462 53,66% 44,71% 1,63% 215004 8,95%
Diff: -35954 61774 17730 43550 -2,43% 1,73% 0,70% -97728 -4,16%










Connecticut 2012 912531 631432 18220 1562183 58,41% 40,42% 1,17% 281099 17,99%
Connecticut 2008 997773 629428 19592 1646793 60,59% 38,22% 1,19% 368345 22,37%
Diff: -85242 2004 -1372 -84610 -2,18% 2,20% -0,02% -87246 -4,37%










Delaware 2012 242547 165476 5821 413844 58,61% 39,99% 1,41% 77071 18,62%
Delaware 2008 255459 152374 4783 412616 61,91% 36,93% 1,16% 103085 24,98%
Diff: -12912 13102 1038 1228 -3,30% 3,06% 0,25% -26014 -6,36%










DC 2012 222332 17337 4326 243995 91,12% 7,11% 1,77% 204995 84,02%
DC 2008 245800 17367 2686 265853 92,46% 6,53% 1,01% 228433 85,92%
Diff: -23468 -30 1640 -21858 -1,34% 0,57% 0,76% -23438 -1,91%










Florida 2012 4235270 4162081 72854 8470205 50,00% 49,14% 0,86% 73189 0,86%
Florida 2008 4282367 4046219 83275 8411861 50,91% 48,10% 0,99% 236148 2,81%
Diff: -47097 115862 -10421 58344 -0,91% 1,04% -0,13% -162959 -1,94%










Georgia 2012 1773085 2076445 45290 3894820 45,52% 53,31% 1,16% 303360 7,79%
Georgia 2008 1844123 2048759 39276 3932158 46,90% 52,10% 1,00% 204636 5,20%
Diff: -71038 27686 6014 -37338 -1,37% 1,21% 0,16% 98724 2,58%










Hawaii 2012 306545 120975 7019 434539 70,54% 27,84% 1,62% 185570 42,71%
Hawaii 2008 325871 120566 7131 453568 71,85% 26,58% 1,57% 205305 45,26%
Diff: -19326 409 -112 -19029 -1,30% 1,26% 0,04% -19735 -2,56%










Idaho 2012 212560 420750 18561 651871 32,61% 64,54% 2,85% 208190 31,94%
Idaho 2008 236440 403012 19002 658454 35,91% 61,21% 2,89% 166572 25,30%
Diff: -23880 17738 -441 -6583 -3,30% 3,34% -0,04% 41618 6,64%










Illinois 2012 2964608 2104104 84917 5153629 57,52% 40,83% 1,65% 860504 16,70%
Illinois 2008 3419348 2031179 77828 5528355 61,85% 36,74% 1,41% 1388169 25,11%
Diff: -454740 72925 7089 -374726 -4,33% 4,09% 0,24% -527665 -8,41%










Indiana 2012 1151893 1414883 50462 2617238 44,01% 54,06% 1,93% 262990 10,05%
Indiana 2008 1374039 1345648 35903 2755590 49,86% 48,83% 1,30% 28391 1,03%
Diff: -222146 69235 14559 -138352 -5,85% 5,23% 0,63% -291381 11,08%










Iowa 2012 816429 727928 21611 1565968 52,14% 46,48% 1,38% 88501 5,65%
Iowa 2008 828940 682379 25804 1537123 53,93% 44,39% 1,68% 146561 9,53%
Diff: -12511 45549 -4193 28845 -1,79% 2,09% -0,30% -58060 -3,88%










Kansas 2012 427918 678719 24607 1131244 37,83% 60,00% 2,18% 250801 22,17%
Kansas 2008 514765 699655 23996 1238416 41,57% 56,50% 1,94% 184890 14,93%
Diff: -86847 -20936 611 -107172 -3,74% 3,50% 0,24% 65911 7,24%










Kentucky 2012 679357 1087136 30272 1796765 37,81% 60,51% 1,68% 407779 22,70%
Kentucky 2008 751985 1048462 27140 1827587 41,15% 57,37% 1,49% 296477 16,22%
Diff: -72628 38674 3132 -30822 -3,34% 3,14% 0,20% 111302 6,47%










Louisiana 2008 808496 1152460 32599 1993555 40,56% 57,81% 1,64% 343964 17,25%
Louisiana 2012 782989 1148275 29497 1960761 39,93% 58,56% 1,50% 365286 18,63%
Diff: 25507 4185 3102 32794 0,62% -0,75% 0,13% -21322 -1,38%










Maine 2012 397754 290437 22547 710738 55,96% 40,86% 3,17% 107317 15,10%
Maine 2008 421923 295273 13967 731163 57,71% 40,38% 1,91% 126650 17,32%
Diff: -24169 -4836 8580 -20425 -1,74% 0,48% 1,26% -19333 -2,22%










Maryland 2012 1591435 943759 54847 2590041 61,44% 36,44% 2,12% 647676 25,01%
Maryland 2008 1629467 959862 42267 2631596 61,92% 36,47% 1,61% 669605 25,44%
Diff: -38032 -16103 12580 -41555 -0,47% -0,04% 0,51% -21929 -0,44%










Massachusetts 2012 1900575 1177370 50189 3128134 60,76% 37,64% 1,60% 723205 23,12%
Massachusetts 2008 1904098 1108854 68117 3081069 61,80% 35,99% 2,21% 795244 25,81%
Diff: -3523 68516 -17928 47065 -1,04% 1,65% -0,61% -72039 -2,69%










Michigan 2012 2561911 2112673 43144 4717728 54,30% 44,78% 0,91% 449238 9,52%
Michigan 2008 2872579 2048639 88976 5010194 57,33% 40,89% 1,78% 823940 16,45%
Diff: -310668 64034 -45832 -292466 -3,03% 3,89% -0,86% -374702 -6,92%










Minnesota 2012 1547668 1321575 59699 2928942 52,84% 45,12% 2,04% 226093 7,72%
Minnesota 2008 1573354 1275409 61606 2910369 54,06% 43,82% 2,12% 297945 10,24%
Diff: -25686 46166 -1907 18573 -1,22% 1,30% -0,08% -71852 -2,52%










Mississippi 2012 528260 674302 11416 1213978 43,51% 55,54% 0,94% 146042 12,03%
Mississippi 2008 554662 724597 10606 1289865 43,00% 56,18% 0,82% 169935 13,17%
Diff: -26402 -50295 810 -75887 0,51% -0,63% 0,12% -23893 -1,14%










Missouri 2012 1215043 1478976 50944 2744963 44,26% 53,88% 1,86% 263933 9,62%
Missouri 2008 1441911 1445814 41224 2928949 49,23% 49,36% 1,41% 3903 0,13%
Diff: -226868 33162 9720 -183986 -4,97% 4,52% 0,45% 260030 9,48%










Montana 2012 201477 267668 14216 483361 41,68% 55,38% 2,94% 66191 13,69%
Montana 2008 232159 243882 16709 492750 47,11% 49,49% 3,39% 11723 2,38%
Diff: -30682 23786 -2493 -9389 -5,43% 5,88% -0,45% 54468 11,31%










Nebraska 2012 293421 468265 13165 774851 37,87% 60,43% 1,70% 174844 22,56%
Nebraska 2008 333319 452979 14983 801281 41,60% 56,53% 1,87% 119660 14,93%
Diff: -39898 15286 -1818 -26430 -3,73% 3,90% -0,17% 55184 7,63%










NE-02 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
2008 138809 135439 3561 277809 49,97% 48,75% 1,28% 3370 1,21%
Diff: -138809 -135439 -3561 -277809 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3370 #DIV/0!










Nevada 2012 529005 462607 19895 1011507 52,30% 45,73% 1,97% 66398 6,56%
Nevada 2008 533736 412827 21285 967848 55,15% 42,65% 2,20% 120909 12,49%
Diff: -4731 49780 -1390 43659 -2,85% 3,08% -0,23% -54511 -5,93%










New Hampshire 2012 368529 327870 8475 704874 52,28% 46,51% 1,20% 40659 5,77%
New Hampshire 2008 384826 316534 9610 710970 54,13% 44,52% 1,35% 68292 9,61%
Diff: -16297 11336 -1135 -6096 -1,84% 1,99% -0,15% -27633 -3,84%










New Jersey 2012 1960744 1383233 34849 3378826 58,03% 40,94% 1,03% 577511 17,09%
2008 2215422 1613207 48778 3877407 57,14% 41,61% 1,26% 602215 15,53%
Diff: -254678 -229974 -13929 -498581 0,89% -0,67% -0,23% -24704 1,56%










New Mexico 2012 409678 332984 32244 774906 52,87% 42,97% 4,16% 76694 9,90%
New Mexico 2008 472422 346832 10904 830158 56,91% 41,78% 1,31% 125590 15,13%
Diff: -62744 -13848 21340 -55252 -4,04% 1,19% 2,85% -48896 -5,23%










New York 2012 3875826 2226637 86519 6188982 62,62% 35,98% 1,40% 1649189 26,65%
New York 2008 4804945 2752771 83232 7640948 62,88% 36,03% 1,09% 2052174 26,86%
Diff: -929119 -526134 3287 -1451966 -0,26% -0,05% 0,31% -402985 -0,21%










North Carolina 2012 2178388 2275853 44798 4499039 48,42% 50,59% 1,00% 97465 2,17%
North Carolina 2008 2142651 2128474 39664 4310789 49,70% 49,38% 0,92% 14177 0,33%
Diff: 35737 147379 5134 188250 -1,29% 1,21% 0,08% -111642 2,50%










North Dakota 2012 124904 188174 9641 322719 38,70% 58,31% 2,99% 63270 19,61%
North Dakota 2008 141403 168887 7448 317738 44,50% 53,15% 2,34% 27484 8,65%
Diff: -16499 19287 2193 4981 -5,80% 5,16% 0,64% 35786 10,96%










Ohio 2012 2697260 2593779 88051 5379090 50,14% 48,22% 1,64% 103481 1,92%
Ohio 2008 2940044 2677820 103951 5721815 51,38% 46,80% 1,82% 262224 4,58%
Diff: -242784 -84041 -15900 -342725 -1,24% 1,42% -0,18% -158743 -2,66%










Oklahoma 2012 443547 891325 0 1334872 33,23% 66,77% 0,00% 447778 33,54%
Oklahoma 2008 502496 960165 0 1462661 34,35% 65,65% 0,00% 457669 31,29%
Diff: -58949 -68840 0 -127789 -1,13% 1,13% 0,00% -9891 2,25%










Oregon 2012 937321 733743 49219 1720283 54,49% 42,65% 2,86% 203578 11,83%
Oregon 2008 1037291 738475 52098 1827864 56,75% 40,40% 2,85% 298816 16,35%
Diff: -99970 -4732 -2879 -107581 -2,26% 2,25% 0,01% -95238 -4,51%










Pennsylvania 2012 2907448 2619583 69468 5596499 51,95% 46,81% 1,24% 287865 5,14%
Pennsylvania 2008 3276363 2655885 83228 6015476 54,47% 44,15% 1,38% 620478 10,31%
Diff: -368915 -36302 -13760 -418977 -2,51% 2,66% -0,14% -332613 -5,17%










Rhode Island 2012 279244 157088 9151 445483 62,68% 35,26% 2,05% 122156 27,42%
Rhode Island 2008 296571 165391 9804 471766 62,86% 35,06% 2,08% 131180 27,81%
Diff: -17327 -8303 -653 -26283 -0,18% 0,20% -0,02% -9024 -0,39%










South Carolina 2012 857713 1066091 26466 1950270 43,98% 54,66% 1,36% 208378 10,68%
South Carolina 2008 862449 1034896 23624 1920969 44,90% 53,87% 1,23% 172447 8,98%
Diff: -4736 31195 2842 29301 -0,92% 0,79% 0,13% 35931 1,71%










South Dakota 2012 144997 210560 8166 363723 39,86% 57,89% 2,25% 65563 18,03%
South Dakota 2008 170924 203054 7997 381975 44,75% 53,16% 2,09% 32130 8,41%
Diff: -25927 7506 169 -18252 -4,88% 4,73% 0,15% 33433 9,61%










Tennessee 2012 959054 1459965 35451 2454470 39,07% 59,48% 1,44% 500911 20,41%
Tennessee 2008 1087437 1479178 35367 2601982 41,79% 56,85% 1,36% 391741 15,06%
Diff: -128383 -19213 84 -147512 -2,72% 2,63% 0,09% 109170 5,35%










Texas 2012 3294482 4555857 114329 7964668 41,36% 57,20% 1,44% 1261375 15,84%
Texas 2008 3528633 4479328 79247 8087208 43,63% 55,39% 0,98% 950695 11,76%
Diff: -234151 76529 35082 -122540 -2,27% 1,81% 0,46% 310680 4,08%










Utah 2012 229463 671747 22091 923301 24,85% 72,75% 2,39% 442284 47,90%
Utah 2008 327670 596030 33781 957481 34,22% 62,25% 3,53% 268360 28,03%
Diff: -98207 75717 -11690 -34180 -9,37% 10,51% -1,14% 173924 19,87%










Vermont 2012 199259 92700 5315 297274 67,03% 31,18% 1,79% 106559 35,85%
Vermont 2008 219262 98974 6810 325046 67,46% 30,45% 2,10% 120288 37,01%
Diff: -20,003 -22206 -1495 -43,704 -0,43% 0,73% -0,31% 57401 -1,16%










Virginia 2012 1964628 1821011 60149 3845788 51,09% 47,35% 1,56% 143617 3,73%
Virginia 2008 1959532 1725005 38723 3723260 52,63% 46,33% 1,04% 234527 6,30%
Diff: 5096 96006 21426 122528 -1,54% 1,02% 0,52% -90910 -2,56%










Washington 2012 1620432 1210369 70698 2901499 55,85% 41,72% 2,44% 410063 14,13%
Washington 2008 1750848 1229216 73152 3053216 57,34% 40,26% 2,40% 521632 17,08%
Diff: -130416 -18847 -2454 -151717 -1,50% 1,46% 0,04% -111569 -2,95%










West Virginia 2012 234925 412406 14312 661643 35,51% 62,33% 2,16% 177481 26,82%
West Virginia 2008 303857 397466 13545 714868 42,51% 55,60% 1,89% 93609 13,09%
Diff: -68932 14940 767 -53225 -7,00% 6,73% 0,27% 83872 13,73%










Wisconsin 2012 1613950 1408746 33917 3056613 52,80% 46,09% 1,11% 205204 6,71%
Wisconsin 2008 1677211 1262393 43813 2983417 56,22% 42,31% 1,47% 414818 13,90%
Diff: -63261 146353 -9896 73196 -3,42% 3,77% -0,36% -209614 -7,19%










Wyoming 2012 68780 170265 6740 245785 27,98% 69,27% 2,74% 101485 41,29%
Wyoming 2008 82868 164958 5023 252849 32,77% 65,24% 1,99% 82090 32,47%
Diff: -14088 5307 1717 -7064 -4,79% 4,03% 0,76% 19395 8,82%


What states are driving the increase in votes the most? 6 states are currently doing this:

California: 1,240,697 more votes added to the total since 11/09. There are probably at least 1.5 million votes still out in California, if history is our guide.

Washington State: 457,257 more votes added to the total since 11/09.

Arizona: 323,087 more votes added to the total since 11/09. Romney has padded his margin in AZ.

Virginia: 97,930 more votes added to the total since 11/09. Virginia now has more total votes than in 2008.

Maryland: 91,591 more votes added to the total since 11/09.

Florida: 80,089 more votes added to the total since 11/09. If just 58,345 more votes are counted (there are about 200,000 absentees still to count, I think), then Florida will exceed its vote total from 2008

Five of those six states went for Obama, which also explains why his national margin and margin percentage is rising, just as predicted.


Not only that: based on these figures 2,290,651 of the 2,583,679 new votes cast, or 88.66% of all new votes turned in, came from these six states alone.

And there are a lot of big states that have not updated totals at all since 11/09 or even since election night:

Illinois, which is very secretive about its vote totals, and only gives them to the AP, has not new updates. Now, before you scream "Chicago Thugland", neighboring Wisconsin, under Republican Governor Scott Walker, does exactly the same thing.

New York, which added almost 1,000,000 more votes in 2008 between election night and the final canvasses, has not yet reported new totals.

Radio silence out of the big state of North Carolina - which had a moderate increase in it's total from November 2008 to January 2009.

First Helpers in New Jersey were allowed to vote all the way to Monday in New Jersey, I think. It might even be until this Friday. And the New Jersey totals are very depressed over 2008, they are bound to change. To date, New Jersey is the ONLY blue state where President Obama actually has a higher margin than he did in 2008, but this may yet change. However, there are other states that are very close to his 2008 margins, and as new votes come in, this might changes as well. See: Maryland, New York and Rhode Island on the excel table above. In all those cases, he is only about 0.3% under his 2008 margin.

The Massachusetts numbers have also not changed since election night, and they will certainly change by the final canvasses.


The Ohio provisional ballots will be counted on Saturday, 11/17, so expect those Ohio numbers to change on Friday and over the weekend. That is around 200,000 provisional ballots - so expect a big change in the Ohio numbers next week.

Texas has only registered 10,000 more votes than in 2008. I suspect that about 40,000 more will come in.

There are other states, like Wyoming, Vermont and Hawaii, where generally the figures will barely change between election night and the final canvasses.

All in all, it looks like around 3 million votes are still out, which should bring the national total around 126 million, just as I predicted in 11/09. It looks very much as if the individual states' patterns and methods for counting late votes has not changed since 2008.

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