05 November 2012

FINAL Battleground Report 11/04/2012: T-minus 2 days, DELUXE VERSION


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 11/04/2012: T-minus 2 days 
FINAL BATTLEGROUND REPORT:
President Obama headed for Re-Election on 11/06





Sunday, November 4th, 2012, was exactly 2 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012. 

Flashback to 2008: here was the final Battleground Report, from 11/02/2008.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 11/04/2012 in GOOGLE DRIVE. All polls are hyperlinked. 

I expect there will be a great deal of last-minute polls that come in on Monday. They and the few straggler polls that come into until about 9 am (EST) on Tuesday will all be incorporated into the final Electoral Landscape. No. 8. The Final Landscape report will be huge and will contain:

-a quasi-battleground report from 11/05-11/06 - if any major polling shifts happened.

-The "Everything Table", arranged twice: by order of partisan ranking from 2008, and then by order of margin average from the end-polling in 2012. Both will be in the standard hour-glass form.


-detailed paragraphs for each of the battleground states.


-an electoral map, with tossups.

-an electoral map, without tossups.

-The national numbers, with a quasi-prediction.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. The national averages, all the way back to September 13, 2012, are at the bottom of the report.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


Here is the battleground table for 11/04:


A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 04.11.12 03.11.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
IN 11 2,04% 1 / 5 11,20 12,25 -1,05 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 10,02 12,23
MO 10 1,86% 3 / 5 10,12 10,40 -0,28 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 9,66 9,99
MT 3 0,56% 2 / 3 9,23 8,57 0,66 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 7,59 6,85
GA 16 2,97% 1 / 4 8,25 8,33 -0,08 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 4,40 3,05
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 2 / 3 7,67 5,00 2,67 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 3,24 -0,81
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 5,00 5,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 9,00 6,21
NC 15 2,79% 2 / 6 1,60 2,25 -0,65 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 2,22 1,93
FL 29 5,39% 5 / 14 0,66 0,35 0,31 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 2,45 3,47
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 11 / 19 1,04 0,72 0,32 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -6,50 -6,22
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 2 / 10 1,44 1,27 0,17 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,18 -7,51
VA 13 2,42% 5 / 11 1,65 0,98 0,67 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -3,28 -4,65
IA 6 1,12% 2 / 11 2,34 2,77 -0,43 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -10,41 -7,19
NH 4 0,74% 2 / 8 2,76 2,59 0,17 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -7,67 -6,85
OH 18 3,35% 6 / 17 3,35 2,83 0,52 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 1,05 -1,23
PA 20 3,72% 3 / 6 4,00 3,33 0,67 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -3,30 -6,31
WI 10 1,86% 2 / 10 4,27 4,71 -0,44 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -7,07 -9,63
NV 6 1,12% 1 / 5 4,80 5,00 -0,20 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -2,03 -7,69
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
MI 16 2,97% 2 / 8 5,14 5,78 -0,64 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -9,30 -11,30
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 4 6,00 6,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -9,57 -10,35
MN 10 1,86% 2 / 8 6,25 5,33 0,92 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -5,09 -3,99
NM 5 0,93% 1 / 4 8,00 8,67 -0,67 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 -1,26 -7,13


----------------------------------------------------------------

There were 57 polls for 28 states (10 true battlegrounds) on 11/03:


That makes for 185 polls to-date since Electoral Landscape No. 7 from 10/29, five days before.

Ipsos/Reuters continued its nightly 4 state poll of CO, FL, OH and VA.

This was the largest poll dump on one single day of the entire year, due partly to 27 end-polls from YouGov, many of non-battleground states, but also multiple polls from Ipsos-Reuters, PPP,  Rasmussen, Pulse (Tea Party), etc.

With all of these polls in just one day I suppose I could write an incredibly detailed analysis, or I can sum it up in one sentence:


Obama is STILL ahead in Ohio


The long awaited Columbus Dispatch poll has come in, and it shows Obama +2 in Ohio. Because the Dispatch has one of the longest and most venerated polling histories in the USA (it has been polling presidential elections since 1916), I did a long write-up on the day of the last Dispatch poll, from September 30, 2012. There is a ton of detail there worth the absorbtion.

You should know that Ohio is the most perfect of the longstanding bellwether states, having missed the winner in the national election only twice in the last 116 years, from 1896-present. It missed in 1944 (Dewey won the state, FDR won the election) and in 1960 (Nixon won the state, Kennedy won the election), but the Columbus poll only missed picking the winner of the state itself one single time: in 2004, it showed an absolute tie between John Kerry and George Bush. Bush won the election. In both 1944 and 1960, The Columbus Dispatch poll predicted that the state would be won by Dewey and Nixon, respectively, so within the confines of the state, it's polling has been spot-on. The Columbus Dispatch is also a very conservative oriented newspaper and has endorsed every Republican candidate for President since 1916, without fail.

In the context of this history, the Columbus Dispatch poll carries a type of weight with it that hardly any other poll for Ohio can, for The Dispatch can prove a long history of accurately predicting the winner, and usually within 2 percentage points.

All in all, 6 polls came in for Ohio, and the average moved up to Obama +3.35.

Here the Ohio stats:


Nr. OHIO Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 49,26 45,91 4,84 3,35










Most recent (no repeaters, one week):















109 PPP (D) – FINAL POLL 04.11.12 1000 LV +/-3.1 52 47 1 5
108 Pulse (R) / Let Freedom Ring (Tea Party) 04.11.12 1000 LV +/-3.0 49 46 5 3
107 YouGov 04.11.12 1620 LV +/-3.0 49 46 5 3
106 Ipsos / Reuters 04.11.12 712 LV +/-4.2 48 44 8 4
105 NewsmaxZogby Swing States 04.11.12 827 LV +/-3.5 50,2 42,3 7,5 7,9
104 Columbus Dispatch 04.11.12 1501 LV +/-2.2 50 48 2 2
102 Grove Insight (D) / PNA / USAction 03.11.12 500 LV +/-4.4 49 45 6 4
101 NBC / WSJ / Marist 02.11.12 971 LV +/-3.1 51 45 4 6
99 WAA (R) 02.11.12 1649 LV +/-2.6 50,2 45,8 4 4,4
98 CNN/ORC 02.11.12 796 LV +/-3.5 50 47 3 3
97 Rasmussen 02.11.12 750 LV +/-4.5 49 49 2 0
95 Wenzel (R) / Citizens United (R) 01.11.12 1281 LV +/-2.7 46 49 5 -3
93 Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS 31.10.12 1100 LV +/-3.0 50 45 5 5
91 Ohio Poll / U of Cincy 31.10.12 1182 LV +/-2.9 48 46 6 2
88 SUSA 30.10.12 603 LV +/-4.1 48 45 7 3
86 Mellmann (D) / AFC 30.10.12

49 44 7 5
85 Pharos Research 30.10.12 765 LV +/-3.5 49 46,3 4,7 2,7


The final polls that are not yet out for Ohio are probably Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, WAPO and maybe another round of Marist polls. Otherwise, the stats for Ohio for 2012 are probably complete and are not likely to change very much until election day. Obama is sitting on a higher statistical margin average in Ohio in 2012 that he had directly before the election in 2008, in spite of more Right-Wing leaning pollsters polling the state more often. Even the Tea-Party poll of Ohio, using Rasmussen's Pulse technology, shows Obama +3. This cannot be good news for Mitt Romney.

Actually, that pretty much says it. With Nevada, because of the early voting statistics, off the table now, with Ohio and Virginia moving deeper and deeper into the President's column, Mitt Romney's climb to 270 just got very, very steep. 

Therefore, it makes sense that he looked to Pennsylvania in order to try for an upset. Now, the Muhlenberg / Morning Call Poll of PA was a surprise, showing a very narrow race, Obama +3, 49/46, but I delved deeper into the statistics for PA and found something very surprising: Muhlenberg claims party affiliation D 46 / R 42, margin: D +4. Here, look:




The only problem with that is that is doesn't even come close to the actual VR for PA, which is actually very, very similar to 2008:




You can download the PA VR stats for youself right HERE. (Warning: 5 Megabyte EXCEL table, takes a while to load).

So, the Democrats have a +13.20% VR edge in Pennsylvania, and yet Muhlenberg is claiming D+4. That tilts the poll 9.2 points towards the Republicans already. This poll is just way too far out of the margin of reasonable VR. And even with a poll this unbelievably tilted, Obama is still winning. Think about that. In a year where the Incumbent has 100% name recognition and in a state where he is guaranteed to sweep Philadelphia and probably get 95% of the black vote, 70% of the Latino vote and a lot of Clinton blue-collar votes from areas like Scranton, Republican leaning pollsters want to create the illusion that PA is in play. It is not. And I have written much over the symbiotic relationship between PA and OH in the partisan rankings going back to 1964. If Obama is winning in OH, then he is guaranteed to be winning in PA.

There is more to write, but I have work today - so I will flesh out the rest of the written stuff on certain states like Florida, Virginia and Colorado later in the day.

But take a look at the deluxe version of the battleground table and look especially at column M:



Battleground Table, DELUXE VERSION (the entire week at a glance):

A B C D E F G I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 04.11 29.10.12 30.10.12 31.10.12 01.11.12 02.11.12 03.11.12 04.11.12 Shift
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 4 11,00 11,00 18,67 18,67 17,25 17,25 17,25 6,25
IN 11 2,04% 1 / 5 13,03 13,00 15,50 15,50 12,25 12,25 11,20 -1,83
MO 10 1,86% 3 / 5 10,76 10,76 10,40 10,40 10,40 10,40 10,12 -0,64
MT 3 0,56% 2 / 3 8,05 8,57 8,57 8,57 8,57 8,57 9,23 1,18
GA 16 2,97% 1 / 4 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 8,33 8,33 8,25 -0,75
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 2 / 3 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 7,67 2,67
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 5,00 0,00
NC 15 2,79% 2 / 6 2,00 2,43 2,43 2,25 2,25 2,25 1,60 -0,40
FL 29 5,39% 5 / 14 0,76 0,54 0,52 0,43 0,18 0,35 0,66 -0,10
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 11 / 19 0,16 0,34 0,09 0,22 0,47 0,72 1,04 1,20
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 2 / 10 1,67 1,67 1,55 0,68 1,49 1,27 1,44 -0,23
VA 13 2,42% 5 / 11 1,45 1,03 0,26 0,54 0,98 0,98 1,65 3,10
IA 6 1,12% 2 / 11 2,00 2,00 2,95 2,53 2,53 2,77 2,34 0,34
NH 4 0,74% 2 / 8 2,57 2,57 3,00 3,00 3,02 2,59 2,76 0,19
OH 18 3,35% 6 / 17 2,28 2,54 2,92 2,49 2,89 2,83 3,35 1,07
PA 20 3,72% 3 / 6 5,28 5,28 5,00 5,00 5,00 3,33 4,00 -1,28
WI 10 1,86% 2 / 10 3,50 3,50 4,20 4,57 4,81 4,71 4,27 0,77
NV 6 1,12% 1 / 5 3,14 3,14 3,14 3,75 3,75 5,00 4,80 1,66
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
MI 16 2,97% 2 / 8 4,68 4,68 4,27 4,27 5,78 5,78 5,14 0,46
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 4 6,00 6,25 6,25 6,25 6,00 6,00 6,00 0,00
MN 10 1,86% 2 / 8 6,33 6,33 6,60 6,60 6,40 5,33 6,25 -0,08
NM 5 0,93% 1 / 4 9,50 7,67 7,67 7,67 7,67 8,67 8,00 -1,50


Look at Arizona and Virginia - they have moved about the same amount away from the middle over one week. Notice the around +1 improvement for Obama in Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada, all moving farther and farther away from the tossups, and those states appear to be moving with the national polling motion for the first time in about a month..                   

                                    Non-Battleground Polling:

Will be fleshed out later today... stay tuned.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

National Polling:
Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE (one week): N/A N/A N/A
48,27 47,23 4,51 1,04

AVERAGE (3-day):



48,55 47,64 3,82 0,91

Average (1 day):



48,67 47,71 3,62 0,96

Average (mean-value):



48,50 47,52 3,98 0,97











RECENT:

















732 Ipsos/Reuters 04.11.12 3845 LV +/-3.4
48 47 5 1
731 CNN / ORC 04.11.12 1013 LV +/-3.5
49 49 2 0
730 ABC / WaPo 04.11.12 2846 LV +/-2.5
49 48 3 1
729 UPI / CVOTER 04.11.12 1444 LV +/-4.5
49 48 3 1
728 YouGov – Final Poll 04.11.12 36,472 LV

48,5 46,5 5 2
727 Zogby (online) 04.11.12 1011 LV +/-3.1
46,9 47,3 5,8 -0,4
726 Pew Research -Final Poll 04.11.12 2709 LV +/-2.2
50 47 3 3
725 GWU/Politico Battleground - Final Poll 04.11.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
48 48 4 0
724 NBC / WSJ - Final Poll 04.11.12 1475 LV +/-3.1
48 47 5 1
723 PPP (D) / AUC – daily tracking 04.11.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
50 48 2 2
722 Rasmussen - daily tracking 04.11.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
49 49 2 0
711 Purple Strategies - FINAL POLL 02.11.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
47 46 7 1
710 Washington Times / Zogby 02.11.12 800 LV +/-3.4
48,7 48,5 2,8 0,2
706 High Point University (NC) 01.11.12 805 LV +/-3.45
46 43 11 3
699 CBS / Times 31.10.12 563 LV +/-4.0
48 47 5 1
695 National Journal / United Technologies 31.10.12 713 LV +/-4.4
50 45 5 5
692 Fox News 31.10.12 1128 LV +/-3.0
46 46 8 0
689 NPR / DemCorps (D) / Resurgent Republic (R) 30.10.10 1000 LV +/-5.6
47 48 5 -1
384 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 30.10.12 1400 LV +/-2.6
49 49 2 0


There were 11 polls from 11/04 of 19 in the total mix. All results are LV.

You will now notice that I am calculating three averages as of today, plus a mean value based on them. Obama has retaken the lead in national polling.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-11-004: Obama +1.04% (+0.32 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-11-003Obama +0.72% (+0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-11-002Obama +0.47% (+0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-11-001Obama +0.22 (-0.31 shift -or- +0.31 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-031 Romney +0.09 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-030Romney +0.16 (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-029Romney +0.16 (+0.08 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-028Romney +0.08 (-0.01 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-027Romney +0.09 (-0.10 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-026Romney +0.19 (+0.11 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-025Romney +0.08 (+0.25 shift -or- -0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-024Obama +0.17 (-0.38 shift -or- +0.38 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-023Romney +0.21 (+0.15 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-022Romney +0.06 (-0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-021Romney +0.19 (+0.54 shift -or- -0.54 shift)
Here was  the polling outlook for 2012-10-020Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -2.76% / Romney +2.76%


For the twenty-fourth day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.



November 4th, 2012 
marked exactly 3 days until the General Election.

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