07 November 2012

Statistikhengst's Election Night LIVE BLOG

Since KOS has put out an awesome and easy to read map, I see no reason to reinvent the wheel:



Here the breakdown, by hour: 

6:42 PM, EST: On CNN, Peter Hamby, reporter, claims that an informant for the Romney campaign leaked internal poll data to him vis-a-vis Ohio, that through Sunday, November, 4th, Obama was up 5 points in the Buckeye State. This totally contradicts what was leaked to the Daily Mall, a right-wing british tabloid, which claimed that the Romney campaign was ahead in Ohio. So, since both cannot be true, one of these two people lied. The political panel talked about this and David Gergen brought up the point that the now infamous "Jeep" ad that Romney brought out in Ohio may have backfired on him.

The following states were called as of 7:00 PM EST:

Time: Polls close in: Time Zone EV Announcement Tally: Obama Tally: Romney Margin


6:00 PM EST Indiana - partial EST 11 Not yet called





(19 EV) Kentucky - partial EST 8 Not yet called





































7:00 PM EST Florida -part EST 29 Not yet called





(88 EV) Georgia EST 16 Called by NBC/FOX; CNN calls GA at 8:15 PM, EST

16



Indiana - remainder (CST) 11 Called by FOX; CNN calls IN at 7:25 PM, EST

27



Kentucky - remainder (CST) 8 Called by CNN

35



South Carolina EST 9 Called by CNN

44



Vermont EST 3 Called by CNN 3





Virginia EST 13 Not yet called





















Subtotal:







3 44 R +41

MAP:


CNN, 7:01 EST:

Exit poll, Indiana: Romney 55 / Obama 43.
Exit poll, Virginia: Obama 49 / Romney 49.

In depth exit polling of Virginia (John King):
Obama winning in the DC suburbs by +23, 61 / 38.
NOVA exurbs: Romney winning by +5, 52 / 47
Richmond area: Obama winning by +3, 51 / 48
Who would better handle the economy? Romney winning
Repeal Obamacare? Romney by 3, 49 yes / 46 no.

David Gergen comments: the news out of Virginia is not good for Mitt Romney. When you are 49 / 49 in a state you must win, that is never good news for your side.

Van Jones noted that Black voter turnout is going through the roof in Virginia.

7:28 PM, EST: John King gives partial exit poll statistics for Ohio:

39% Democratic
31% Independent
30% Republican

Approve of the Obama Auto-Bailout?

59% YES (75% Obama / 25% Romney)
36% NO

Economy:

37% getting better
33% getting worse
28% staying the same

Your family's financial situation:

43% the same
31% worse
26% better

CNN, 7:31 PM, EST,  EXIT POLLS:

North Carolina: Obama 49 / Romney 49
Ohio: Obama 51 / Romney 48 - Obama +3

7:49 PM, EST, CNN:

Commentary on how a number of Tea-Party Senatorial candidates may have cost the GOP the Senate in both 2010 and now in 2012.

7:57 PM, EST, CNN - part of the Florida, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania exit polls:

Florida:

Party breakdown:

Democratic 35%
Independent 33%
Republican 32%

Most important issue:

The Economy 62%
Health Care 17%

Who would better handle Medicare:

Obama 50%
Romney 46%


New Hampshire:

Party breakdown:

Independent 43%
Republican 29%
Democratic 29%

Opinion of Mitt Romney: 49 / 49 favorable / unfavorable

Opinion of President Obama: 55 / 43 favorable / unfavorable

Pennsylvania:



Who would better handle Medicare:

Obama 49%
Romney 47%



The following states were called as of 8:00 PM EST:

Time: Polls close in: Time Zone EV Announcement Tally: Obama Tally: Romney Margin


Subtotal:







3 44 R +41
















7:30 PM EST North Carolina EST 15 Not yet called





(38 EV) Ohio EST 18 Not yet called







West Virginia EST 5 Called by CNN at 7:30 PM, EST

49

















Subtotal:







3 49 R +46
















8:00 PM EST Alabama CST 9 Called by NBC/FOX

58

(234 EV) Connecticut EST 7 Called by CNN 10





Delaware EST 3 Called by CNN 13





D.C. EST 3 Called by CNN 16





Florida - remainder CST 29 Not yet called







Illinois CST 20 Called by CNN 36





Kansas CST 6 Not yet called







Maine EST 4 Called by CNN (3) 39





Maryland EST 10 Called by CNN 49





Massachusetts EST 11 Called by CNN 60





Michigan EST 16 Not yet called







Mississippi CST 6 Called by NBC/FOX

64



Missouri CST 10 Not yet called







New Hampshire EST 4 Not yet called







New Jersey EST 14 Not yet called







Oklahoma CST 7 Called by CNN

71



Pennsylvania EST 20 Not yet called







Rhode Island EST 4 Called by CNN 64





South Dakota CST 3 Not yet called







Tennessee EST 11 Called by NBC/FOX; CNN calls TN at 8:30 PM, with the Arkansas call.

82



Texas CST 38 Not yet called





















Subtotal:







64 82 R +18

MAP:





8:01 PM, EST, CNN EXIT POLL data:

Florida: Obama 50 / Romney 49 
Mississippi: Romney 60 / Obama 40
Missouri: Romney 53 Obama 44
New Hampshire: Obama 50 Romney 48 
New Jersey: Obama 53 Romney 45
Pennyslvania: Obama 52 Romney 47  


More from the Ohio exit poll:

Ideology, Ohio:

Moderate 42%
Conservative 35%
Liberal 22%

Who would better handle the economy (Ohio):

Romney 50 
Obama 47

8:15 PM, EST, CNN calls Georgia for Romney (already called by FOX, NBC, ABC)



The following states were called as of 8:30 PM, EST:

Time: Polls close in: Time Zone EV Announcement Tally: Obama Tally: Romney Margin


Subtotal:







64 82 R +18
















8:30 EST Arkansas CST 6 Called by CNN 64 88

(6 EV)































New Jersey EST 14 Already called by FOX, ABC 78 88

















Subtotal:







78 88 R +10



MAP:





08:35 PM, EST: John King works the magic wall. Amazing how for most of the night, Romney was ahead in Virginia, and by a good margin. But the farthest north of the NOVA counties really reported in quite late.  In Florida, Obama has been running numbers in Hillsborough County pretty much identical to 2008.



The numbers for Obama are looking extremely competitive in Virginia, Ohio and Florida. Obama still has a big lead in Ohio.

Moving on toward 9:00 PM EST... here is how the networks looked at 8:53 pm:













The following states were called at 9:00 PM, EST:

Time: Polls close in: Time Zone EV Announcement Tally: Obama Tally: Romney Margin


Subtotal:







78 88 R +10
















9:00 EST Arizona MST 11 Not yet called





(153 EV) Colorado MST 9 Not yet called







Kansas - remainder MST 6 Called by CNN

94



Louisiana CST 8 Called by CNN

102



Michigan - Remainder CST 16 Called by CNN 94





Minnesota CST 10 Not yet called







Nebraska CST / MST 5 Called by CNN (3)

105



New Mexico MST 5 Not yet called







New York EST 29 Called by CNN 123





North Dakota MST 3 Called by CNN

108



South Dakota - remainder MST 3 Called by CNN

111



Texas - remainder MST 38 Called by CNN

149



Wisconsin CST 10 Not yet called







Wyoming MST 3 Called by CNN

152

















Subtotal:







123 152 R -29


MAP:



9:03 PM, EST, CNN Exit Polls:


Colorado: Obama 48 Romney 48 
Arizona: Romney 52 Obama 46
Minnesota: Obama 50 Romney 47 
Wisconsin: Obama 52 Romney 46 
New Mexico: Obama 52 Romney 43 
  



9:12 PM EST:

It is now 50/50 in Florida.
Romney is ahead in North Carolina, 50/49
Virginia: Romney 54/45 - Romney is outperforming in Virginia.
Ohio: Obama 55/44 - Obama is outperforming in Ohio.
Colorado (9% of ballots in): Romney 62/36
New Hampshire (13% of ballots in) Obama 56/43

9:18 PM EST: FOX has already called Pennsylvania for Obama (NBC called it at 9:14):



The other networks have not yet called Pennsylvania. Wow. Interesting.

9:22 PM EST: CNN projects Senate re-elections for Casey (PA), Klobuchar (MN), Stabenow (MI) and Gillibrand (NY) - all Democrats.

No calls yet in Massachusetts (Brown vs. Warren) or Virginia (Allen vs. Kaine).

ABC has just called Pennsylvania for Obama:




9:23 PM, EST, Pennsylvania now called by two major networks (I suspect that CNN will call it before 10 PM):


Time: Polls close in: Time Zone EV Announcement Tally: Obama Tally: Romney Margin


Subtotal:







123 152 R -29
















9:23 PM Pennsylvania EST 20 Called by FOX, ABC (called by CNN at 9:43) 143 152

















Subtotal:







143 152 R +9



Moving toward 10 pm now... and it looks like Florida is just as close as it was in 2000.

9:36 PM EST: NBC has already called Wisconsin and New Mexico for Obama:



CNN tends to wait longer to call states. Probably still gunshy from 2000...

Side-note: all the networks publish very good, very easy to read electoral maps, but somehow, the NBC map is always easier on the eyes. Take a look at this one right above my head. I don't know if they do some kind of special pixel work or what, but NBC has somehow managed to have clearer state boundaries, and both the red and the blue colors are a little less extreme than portrayed on other networks maps. Go compare them yourself and I think you will see what I mean.

9:43 PM EST: almost 20 minutes later, CNN has called Pennsylvania for Obama. Black voter turnout has just gone out the roof in Philly - exceeding the numbers from 2008. This is a very bad omen for Romney in Ohio.

Battleground look:

Colorado (50% reporting): Obama 51 / Romney 47
Virginia: Romney 51 / Obama 47
North Carolina: Romney 51 / Obama 48
Ohio (42% reporting): Obama 52 / Romney 47
Florida, still 50 / 50

The numbers in Virginia look a lot like they did at this time in 2008, around 9:30 pm...

9:47 PM EST:

CNN projects that Elizabeth Warren has defeated Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senatorial race. NBC projects the race at practically the same time.

CNN also project that Joe Donelly has defeated Richard Murdouck in the Indiana Senatorial Race. NBC calls the race for Donelly at practically the same time.

That makes for 2 DEM pick-ups in the Senate. The GOP will not be able to take control of the Senate.

9:50 PM EST: Fox has also called Wisconsin for Obama.



The outstanding votes in Florida are mostly in Broward and Dade Counties... it can be that Obama wins Florida but loses Virginia. It is truly 50/50 in Florida. Wow. I really thought that Romney would have pulled ahead by now. John King at CNN thinks that Obama is going to have the edge.

9:55 PM EST: CBS and NBC have called New Hampshire for Obama.







The following states were called between 9:53-10:00 PM EST:


Time: Polls close in: Time Zone EV Announcement Tally: Obama Tally: Romney Margin


Subtotal:







143 152 R +9
















09:53 EST Wisconsin CST 10 Called by FOX, ABC, NBC, CBS 153 152

09:54 EST New Hampshire EST 4 Called by NBC, CBS 157 152

















Subtotal:







157 152 O +5
















10:00 EST Idaho -partial MST 4 Not yet called





(32 EV) Iowa CST 6 Not yet called







Montana MST 3 Not yet called







Nevada MST 6 Not yet called







Oregon - partial MST 7 Not yet called







Utah MST 6 Called by CNN

158

















Subtotal:







157 158 R +1




10:01 PM, EST, CNN Exit polls:


Montana: Romney 53 Obama 43
Iowa: Obama 52 Romney 46 
Nevada: Obama 51 Romney 45 



10:05 PM EST: CNN calls New Hampshire for Obama.

10:16 PM EST: CNN has called the Ohio and Missouri Senatorials for Brown (D) and McCaskill (D) - both DEM retentions. NBC called the race for Brown in Ohio about 40 minutes before. NBC called the race for McCaskill at 10:07 PM

10:16 PM EST: FOX, NBC and CBS have already called MT for Romney. CBS has also already called MO for Romney.










10:19 PM EST: Alex Castellanos: "it is looking tough for Romney in Florida"....

10:24 PM EST: 

Florida: Obama 50 / Romney 49
Ohio: Obama 50 / Romney 48

Very telling headline from Politico:




As of 10:30 PM EST, ABC, FOX and NBC have called New Mexico for Obama. CBS and CNN have not yet called the state.

10:32 PM EST  Romney is leading in the national popular vote, 51/48.

10:35 PM EST  Obama is doing better in both Franklin and Cuyahoga Counties in OH compared to 2008.

10:40 PM EST: CBS has already called Minnesota for the President. NBC has already declared Arizona for Romney.

10:43 PM EST : Florida (88% in): Obama 50 / Romney 49. Dade, Broward counties still out.

10:47 PM EST:  Ohio, 64% in: Obama 50 / Romney 48, still a huge amount of votes to come from Cuyahoga County, Obama winning Cuyahoga with 70% (it was 67% in 2008), he is winning Summit County with 66% (it was 57% in 2008), he is winning Hamilton County 55/44. Obama is winning Montgomery County with 55% (it was 52% in 2008).

10:51 PM EST: 

CNN projects Minnesota for Obama, Arizona for Romney. Including New Mexico:

The following states were therefore called between 10:31-10:53 PM, EST:


Time: Polls close in: Time Zone EV Announcement Tally: Obama Tally: Romney Margin


Subtotal:







157 158 R +1
















10:51 PM Arizona MST 11 Called by CNN
169



Minnesota CST 10 Called by CNN at 10:51 PM, earlier by FOX, NBC 167







New Mexico MST 5 Called earlier by ABC, FOX and NBC. Called by CNN at 11:10. 172 169



Montana MST 3 Called earlier by FOX, NBC, CBS. Called by CNN at 11 PM.



172

















Subtotal:







172 172 TIE




MAP:




The West Coast comes in in 5 minutes. I expect calls for California, Washington State and Hawaii for the President and Idaho for Romney. The networks will probably wait on Oregon.

11:00 PM EST: CNN calls California, Washington State and Hawaii for the President and Idaho and Montana for Romney. No call on OR. :)


11:01 PM, EST, CNN Exit polls:


Oregon: Obama 52 Romney 45 



11:04 PM EST: CNN calls Wisconsin for Obama and North Carolina for Romney.

11:05 PM EST: CNN projects that the Democrats will retain the Senate.

So, as of 11:04 PM, EST, here are the states that were called:


Time: Polls close in: Time Zone EV Announcement Tally: Obama Tally: Romney Margin


Subtotal:







172 172 TIE
















11:00 EST California PST 55 Called by CNN 227





Idaho- remainder PST 4 Called by CNN

176



Oregon PST 7 Not yet called







Washington PST 12 Called by CNN 239





Hawaii AKST / ALST 4 Called by CNN 243



















11:04 EST North Carolina EST 15 Called by CNN

191

















Subtotal:







243 191



MAP:





11:09 PM EST: CNN has just called Iowa for Obama. That brings him to 249.
11:10 PM EST: CNN calls New Mexico for Obama (I already have it in the calculations).

So, excluding MO and 2 congressional districts in NE, Romney is pretty much where I projected him in Electoral Landcape No. 8 - minus Florida, which is still too close to call.

11:12 PM EST: (blog update 12/05/2012) The CNN feed from the Obama headquarters in Chicago shows the crowd going wild. What CNN did not report on election night was that other networks, like FOX and NBC, had just called the race for Obama. Both FOX and NBC called Ohio for the President before CNN did.

11:14 PM EST: John King is doing the future-math at the board and pointing out that Obama is going to win Oregon.

11:15 PM EST: CNN calls Oregon for Obama.

11:16 PM EST: CNN calls Missouri for Romney




11:18 EST: CNN calls Ohio for Obama. 


Time: Polls close in: Time Zone EV Announcement Tally: Obama Tally: Romney Margin


Subtotal:







243 191

















11:09 EST Iowa EST 6 Called by CNN 249



































11:14 EST Oregon PST 7 Called by CNN 256



11:15 EST Missouri CST 10 Called by CNN

201

11:18 EST Ohio EST 18 Called by CNN 274



















Subtotal:





OBAMA RE-ELECTED 274 201 O +73



President Obama has been re-elected:






I have started a new thread for screenshots of the 2012 Obama Victory.

11:43 PM: the Romney campaign is not willing to concede yet.

A side note: everytime the camera feed has focused on the Romney Headquarters in Boston, I looked very hard to find even one minority person in the crowd, just one. Result: a sea of (mostly) middle-aged white people, overwhelmingly men. Alone, the make-up of the Romney crowd in Boston is stark evidence of precisely why he lost: lack of appeal and lack of outreach to minorities. Lack of understanding or unwillingness to understand that the demographics of the USA have dramatically changed, and apparently, the GOP is not willing to change with it.  Not one single black or brown person to be seen in the Romney crowd. Not one. Wow.


11:46 PM: CNN calls ME-02 for the President.

The four outstanding battlegrounds: Virginia, Obama ahead, 50/49
Colorado, Obama ahead, 51/ 48
Nevada, Obama ahead, 54 / 44
Florida, Obama, 50 /49

11:49 PM EST: CNN calls Nevada for Obama. It is now Obama 281 / Romney 201.


Subtotal:





OBAMA RE-ELECTED 274 201 O +73
















11:46 EST ME-02 EST 1 Called by CNN 275



11:49 EST Nevada MST 6 Called by CNN 281 201

















Subtotal:







281 201 O +80



MAP:




12:00 AM, EST, November 7, 2012:  AP has called Colorado for Obama. So, even were Ohio to be contested, without Ohio, Obama still wins. It is now time for the Romney campaign to concede before they ruin what good will they could garner by losing graciously.

12:22 AM EST: CNN has now also called Colorado for Obama. I am looking at the vote for Nebraska, there is no way that Obama will win NE-02, so I have moved both NE-01 and NE-02 to Romney. So, it is now Obama 290 / Romney 203.


Time: Polls close in: Time Zone EV Announcement Tally: Obama Tally: Romney Margin


Subtotal:







281 201 O +80
















12:22 EST Colorado MST 9 AP (12:00), FOX, ABC, CNN, NBC 290 201

12:22 EST NE-01, NE-02 CST 2 Personal call

203

















Subtotal:







290 203 O +87



MAP:




Thoughts about the West:


Obama's margin in NEVADA: +8

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-nevada-state-race

poll average: +4.67

Obama's margin in CO: +4

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-colorado-state-race

poll average: +1.87


In both cases, the actual outcome is roughly double the polling average.

Why?

Hack Republican pollsters who tried to poison the sauce, and the grossly miscalculated Latino vote, which I have been mentioning FOR MONTHS NOW.

12:36 AM EST:

OHIO:




Why is the call for Ohio so certain? Well, because as of this moment, only 83.7% of Cuyahoga County has reported in- and Obama is winning there with 67%. Also, Franklin County is at 94.9%, and Obama is winning there with almost 61%. Medina County, 84.6% reported, Obama is winning with 56%. Even with provisionals and all that jazz, the call for Ohio is correct. Obama has won the state, quite clearly. He also won in Hamilton County again.

12:41 AM EST: CNN has called Virginia for Obama!  Obama is now exactly at the 303 EV I predicted in Electoral Landsape No. 8.


Time: Polls close in: Time Zone EV Announcement Tally: Obama Tally: Romney Margin


Subtotal:







290 203 O +87
















12: 41 EST Virginia EST 13 Called by CNN 303 203

















Subtotal:







303 203 O +100



MAP:



12:55 AM, EST: Romney concession speech, Boston, Massachusetts. He is giving a very good concession speech, and he crowd is behaving much better at the mention of President Obama than the McCain crowd did in 2008.  I must say, I am impressed with Romney's speech. I think it is the most gracious concession speech I have ever heard, and also inspirational. Wow.

Oh, a blast from the past. Let's now see how unbelievably right Mr. "Moon-Base in my second Term" Newt Gingrich was:



Snicker, snicker...


01:20 AM, EST: John King notes that the eternal bellwether county, Vigo County (IN), went for Obama.  Nice little historical tidbit.

Somewhere in all of this, Alaska was called for Romney, but no one was looking... and I don't think that Alaska has released results yet.

Subtotal:







303 203 O +100
















01:00 EST Alaska HST 3 All networks 303 206

















Subtotal:







303 206 O +97

MAP:





A look at Florida:


Obama is leading by +0.7 in Florida, 98.2% of precincts in. Vote still out in:

Miami-Dade, 91% reporting, Obama winning with 61.2%. This will pad his margin.

Lee County, 89.6% reporting, Obama winning with 56.9%.

Palm Beach County, 99% reporting, Obama winning with 58.4%. Huge county, this last 1% will pad his margin.

Volusia County, 98.4% reported in. Essentially a tie.

BUT: Brevard County, 94.6% reporting, Romney winning with 55.8%.

Wait and see. But it looks like Obama will also win Florida.

01:37-01:59 AM EST, Obama Victory Speech. Incredibly gracious to Mitt Romney, and notice how the crowd has been gracious to Gov. Romney as well. Actually, his acceptance speech may be the best I have ever heard. Dicovery, innovation. Good stuff. "The role of citizen in our democracy does not end with your vote." What makes America exceptional... love, charity, duty and patriotism. That's what makes America great. We are greater than the sum of our individual ambitions.

Wow. I am moved.


Congratulations, Mr. President, on being re-elected. I wish you four very, very good years.

Congratulations, Mr. Vice-President, on being re-elected. I wish you four very, very good years.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, November 9, 2012: though the state has not officially been called, Romney concedes Florida.

Saturday, November 10, 2012: Florida is officially called by AP and all major networks for President Obama.

This completes the statistics for the 2012 Presidential Election: 


Obama 332 EV (61.7%) / Romney 206 EV (38.3%), margin: Obama +122 EV (+23.4%)


FINAL MAP:


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


That was the live election night blog-reporting, with corrections and additions on 10/10 and 10/11/2012.

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