04 November 2012

Battleground Report 11/03/2012: T-minus 3 days


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 11/03/2012: T-minus 3 days 
President Obama maintains the "Battleground" edge





Saturday, November 3rd, 2012, was exactly 3 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012. 

Flashback to 2008: there was no battleground report for 11/01/2008. I was using that busy weekend to prepare the final battleground report and the last "Poll Convergence" and "Distillation", as I called it then. But, I did publish a document called the  "National Polling End-Stretch" on 11/01/2008. 

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 11/03/2012 in GOOGLE DRIVE. All polls are hyperlinked. 

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. The national averages, all the way back to September 13, 2012, are at the bottom of the report.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


Here is the battleground table for 11/03:


A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 03.11.12 02.11.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 3 5,00 5,00 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 0,57 -3,48
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 5,00 5,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 9,00 6,21
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 8 2,25 2,25 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 2,87 2,58
FL 29 5,39% 1 / 12 0,35 0,18 0,17 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 2,14 3,16
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 5 / 20 0,72 0,47 0,25 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -6,82 -6,54
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 9 0,98 0,98 0,00 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -3,95 -5,32
CO 9 1,67% 1 / 9 1,27 1,49 -0,22 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,35 -7,68
NH 4 0,74% 1 / 7 2,59 3,02 -0,43 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -7,84 -7,02
IA 6 1,12% 3 / 10 2,77 2,53 0,24 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -9,98 -6,76
OH 18 3,35% 2 / 16 2,83 2,89 -0,06 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 0,53 -1,75
PA 20 3,72% 2 / 3 3,33 5,00 -1,67 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -3,97 -6,98
WI 10 1,86% 2 / 8 4,71 4,81 -0,10 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -6,63 -9,19
NV 6 1,12% 1 / 4 5,00 3,75 1,25 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -1,83 -7,49
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
MN 10 1,86% 2 / 6 5,33 6,40 -1,07 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -6,01 -4,91
MI 16 2,97% 1 / 6 5,78 5,78 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -8,66 -10,66
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 4 6,00 6,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -9,57 -10,35
NM 5 0,93% 1 / 3 8,67 7,67 1,00 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 -0,59 -6,46



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There were 18 polls for 13 states (10 true battlegrounds) on 11/03: CO, FL, IA (3), ME ,MI, MN (2), NV, NH, OH (2), PA , PA, VA , WA, WI (2)


That makes for 128 polls to-date since Electoral Landscape No. 7 from 10/29, five days before.

Ipsos/Reuters continued its nightly 4 state poll of CO, FL, OH and VA.

With all of these polls in the last five days, I suppose I could write an incredibly detailed analysis, or I can sum it up in one sentence:


Obama is STILL ahead in Ohio

Two new polls of the Buckeye State, 16 total polls in the overall gene pool of polls (the richest in the Union for any state) and Obama still has an average of +2.83, a miniscule drop from 11/02.

However, there is other important news:

WMUR / UNH put out what I assume is its final poll, showing an absolute tie in New Hampshire: 48/48. This moves the average down to Obama +2.59. It is a warning sign that New Hampshire will probably not be called until very late into the night on 11/06.

Nevada has moved to the outer edge of the Battleground Zone and is sitting at an average of Obama +5.00. Based on the early voting stats provided from the NV SOS, it looks like, very similarly to 2008, 70,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans have already voted early in Clark County and it is a draw in Reno (in 2008, it was DEM +80,000 in Clark County at this same time) - meaning that Obama most likely has an unbeatable lead that the Republicans cannot possibly catch up to on Election Day itself, for the other 14 counties in NV can't even make a big dent on the Clark County lead. Probably for this reason we are not seeing the Romney team make any sound about Nevada. Reports are also that Latino Vote turnout in NV is dwarfing the turnout from 2008.

When you look at the battleground table for 11/02, you will see that Obama's average improved in  Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico, but decreased in Wisconsin and most importantly, Pennsylvania.

In Pennsylvania, there are currently only 3 polls in the gene-pool. The GOP bought and paid-for Susquehanna poll (which showed Romney +4 one week ago) now shows an absolute tie. The PPP (D) poll shows Obama +6, while the Franklin-Marshall shows Obama +4, which brings us to an average of Obama +3.33. Surely, a slew of polls for Pennsylvania will appear on Sunday and Monday and this statistic is guaranteed to change yet again.

At Obama +4.71Wisconsin is just about to leave the battlegrounds, it only dropped 0.10% from 11/02 to 11/03. Obama is going to win Wisconsin.

                                                      Non-Battleground Polling:

Maine received yet another poll: from Critical Insight, showing Obama +7. With only two polls in the mix, the average is now: Obama +11. All polls in the ME-02 mix (three polls) show Obama +5 in that congressional district.

Washington State received it's final poll from PPP (D), which shows a smaller margin that most other polls: Obama +7, but the overall margin is Obama +13.68, very safe DEM.

None of this changes the prediction from the last Electoral landscape: the map still stands at Obama 381 / Romney 206 / tossup 51, margin: Obama +75 EV, and it looks at the end of the day more and more like Obama 303 / Romney 235, without tossups.


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National Polling:


Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE (one week): N/A N/A N/A
47,77 47,05 5,19 0,72

AVERAGE (3-day):



47,99 46,76 5,26 1,23

Average (1 day):



48,40 47,40 4,20 1,00

Average (mean-value):



48,05 47,07 4,88 0,98











RECENT:

















721 ABC / WaPo 03.11.12 2131 LV +/-3.0
48 48 4 0
720 UPI / CVOTER 03.11.12 1444 LV +/-4.5
49 48 3 1
719 Ipsos/Reuters 03.11.12 6211 LV +/-3.0
47 46 7 1
718 Rasmussen - daily tracking 03.11.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
48 48 4 0
717 PPP (D) /AUC -Daily Tracking 03.11.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
50 47 3 3
714 Zogby (online) 02.11.12 1030 LV +/-3.1
48,2 46,3 5,5 1,9
711 Purple Strategies - FINAL POLL 02.11.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
47 46 7 1
710 Washington Times / Zogby 02.11.12 800 LV +/-3.4
48,7 48,5 2,8 0,2
706 High Point University (NC) 01.11.12 805 LV +/-3.45
46 43 11 3
699 CBS / Times 31.10.12 563 LV +/-4.0
48 47 5 1
697 YouGov 31.10.12 1000 A +/-4.6
48 47 5 1
695 National Journal / United Technologies 31.10.12 713 LV +/-4.4
50 45 5 5
692 Fox News 31.10.12 1128 LV +/-3.0
46 46 8 0
689 NPR / DemCorps (D) / Resurgent Republic (R) 30.10.10 1000 LV +/-5.6
47 48 5 -1
384 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 30.10.12 1400 LV +/-2.6
49 49 2 0
682 Pew Research 29.10.12 1495 LV +/-2.9
47 47 6 0
681 ARG 29.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
48 48 4 0
680 GWU/Politico Battleground 29.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1
675 Gallup (LV Screen) - daily tracking 29.10.12 2700 LV +/-2.0
46 51 3 -5
671 Investors Business Daily / TIPP - daily tracking 28.10.12 1097 LV +/-3.5
45,4 44,1 10,5 1,3




There were 5 polls from 11/03 of 20 in the total mix. All results are LV.

You will now notice that I am calculating three averages as of today, plus a mean value based on them. Obama has retaken the lead in national polling.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-11-003: Obama +0.72% (+0.25 shift)

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-11-002Obama +0.47% (+0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-11-001Obama +0.22 (-0.31 shift -or- +0.31 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-031 Romney +0.09 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-030Romney +0.16 (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-029Romney +0.16 (+0.08 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-028Romney +0.08 (-0.01 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-027Romney +0.09 (-0.10 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-026Romney +0.19 (+0.11 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-025Romney +0.08 (+0.25 shift -or- -0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-024Obama +0.17 (-0.38 shift -or- +0.38 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-023Romney +0.21 (+0.15 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-022Romney +0.06 (-0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-021Romney +0.19 (+0.54 shift -or- -0.54 shift)
Here was  the polling outlook for 2012-10-020Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.09% / Romney +3.09%


For the twenty-fourth day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.



November 3rd, 2012 
marked exactly 3 days until the General Election.

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