03 November 2012

Battleground Report 11/02/2012: T-minus 4 days


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 11/02/2012: T-minus 4 days 
President Obama maintains the "Battleground" edge





Friday, November 2nd, 2012, was exactly 4 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012. 

Flashback to 2008: here is the Battleground Report for 10/31/2008, 4 days before that election. 

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 11/02/2012 in GOOGLE DRIVE. All polls are hyperlinked. 

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. The national averages, all the way back to September 13, 2012, are at the bottom of the report.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


Here is the battleground table for 11/02:


A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 02.11.12 01.11.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
NE 5 0,93% 1 / 4 17,25 18,67 -1,42 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -1,75 2,32
IN 11 2,04% 2 / 4 12,25 15,50 -3,25 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 11,07 13,28
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 4 10,40 10,40 0,00 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 9,94 10,27
MT 3 0,56% 0 / 3 8,57 8,57 0,00 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 6,93 6,19
GA 16 2,97% 1 / 3 8,33 9,00 -0,67 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 4,48 3,13
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 3 5,00 5,00 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 0,57 -3,48
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 5,00 5,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 9,00 6,21
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 8 2,25 2,25 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 2,87 2,58
FL 29 5,39% 3 / 12 0,18 0,43 -0,25 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 1,97 2,99
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 7 / 20 0,47 0,22 0,25 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -7,07 -6,79
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
VA 13 2,42% 2 / 9 0,98 0,54 0,44 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -3,95 -5,32
CO 9 1,67% 3 / 9 1,49 0,68 0,81 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,13 -7,46
OH 18 3,35% 5 / 17 2,89 2,49 0,40 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 0,59 -1,69
IA 6 1,12% 1 / 7 2,53 2,53 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -10,22 -7,00
NH 4 0,74% 2 / 6 3,02 3,00 0,02 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -7,41 -6,59
NV 6 1,12% 0 / 7 3,75 3,75 0,00 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -3,08 -8,74
WI 10 1,86% 1 / 7 4,81 4,57 0,24 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -6,53 -9,09
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 3 5,00 5,00 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -2,30 -5,31
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
MI 16 2,97% 3 / 6 5,78 4,27 1,51 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -8,66 -10,66
OR 7 1,30% 1 / 4 6,00 6,25 -0,25 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -9,57 -10,35
MN 10 1,86% 1 / 5 6,40 6,60 -0,20 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -4,94 -3,84
NM 5 0,93% 0 / 3 7,67 7,67 0,00 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 -1,59 -7,46



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There were 34 polls for 20 states (8 true battlegrounds) on 11/02: CA, CO (2), CO, CT, FL (2), FL, GA, HI, IN (2), IA, ME (1.5), MA (2), MI (3), MN, NE, NH (2), OH (4), OH, OR, SD, UT, VA (2), WI 


That makes for 110 polls to-date since Electoral Landscape No. 7 from 10/29, four days before.

Ipsos/Reuters continued its nightly 4 state poll of CO, FL, OH and VA.

With 34 whopping polls, I suppose I could write an incredibly detailed analysis, or I can sum it up in one sentence:


Obama is STILL ahead in Ohio



No matter how hard Romney/Ryan pushes in Ohio, he has been unable to erase the small but very resilient lead that President Obama has had all along:


Nr. OHIO Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 49,15 46,26 4,59 2,89










Most recent (no repeaters, one week):















101 NBC / WSJ / Marist 02.11.12 971 LV +/-3.1 51 45 4 6
100 Ipsos / Reuters 02.11.12 1012 LV +/-3.5 47 45 8 2
99 WAA (R) 02.11.12 1649 LV +/-2.6 50,2 45,8 4 4,4
98 CNN/ORC 02.11.12 796 LV +/-3.5 50 47 3 3
97 Rasmussen 02.11.12 750 LV +/-4.5 49 49 2 0
95 Wenzel (R) / Citizens United (R) 01.11.12 1281 LV +/-2.7 46 49 5 -3
94 NewsmaxZogby Swing States 31.10.12 826 LV +/-3.5 50,4 44,3 5,3 6,1
93 Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS 31.10.12 1100 LV +/-3.0 50 45 5 5
92 PPP (D) / Health Care for America Now 31.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 50 45 5 5
91 Ohio Poll / U of Cincy 31.10.12 1182 LV +/-2.9 48 46 6 2
89 Grove Insight (D) / PNA / USAction 30.10.12 500 LV +/-4.4 48 45 7 3
88 SUSA 30.10.12 603 LV +/-4.1 48 45 7 3
86 Mellmann (D) / AFC 30.10.12

49 44 7 5
85 Pharos Research 30.10.12 765 LV +/-3.5 49 46,3 4,7 2,7
82 Gravis (R) 28.10.12 730 LV +/-3.6 50 49 1 1
81 PPP (D) 28.10.12 718 LV +/-3.7 51 47 2 4
80 Ohio Newspaper Poll (Enquirer, Dispatch) 28.10.12 1015 LV +/-3.1 49 49 2 0

Probably the most damaging poll result of all of these for Romney is the WAA (We Ask America) poll, which is from an extreme-right wing pollster who uses the same robocall method as Rasmussen. With a current average of: Obama +2.89, the President still has a larger lead in Ohio now than he had for a final average in 2008. However, on this corresponding day in 2008, 10/31, his average was much larger, due to a wilder Obama +16 outlier poll that was then cycled out of the statistic by November 4th of that year.

I would also remind that in 2008, Rasmussen also showed a 49/49 tie between Obama and McCain in its final poll, and Obama won Ohio by +4.58%. The current Rasmussen poll shows exactly that tie, 49/49, but I suspect that RAS will put out on more end poll.

When you look at the battleground table for 11/02, you will see that Obama's average improved in Ohio, but also in Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Michigan.

At Obama +4.81, Wisconsin is just about to leave the battlegrounds, and at Obama +5.78, Michigan has left the battlegrounds.

Also, Romney's margin averages in Florida, Georgia, Indiana and Nebraska all went down some.

Similarly, Obama's averages in both Oregon and Minnesota ticked slightly down. In the case of 5 of those 6 states (excluding Florida), the statistical shift had more to do with a major poll falling out of the statistic than a major, race-changing poll entering into the statistic.

Overall, the numbers from the battleground table, supported by an Obama national lead for the second day in a row, now speak a unified story: improvement for Obama everywhere where he needs it.

None of this changes the prediction from the last Electoral landscape: the map still stands at Obama 381 / Romney 206 / tossup 51, margin: Obama +75 EV, and it looks at the end of the day more and more like Obama 303 / Romney 235, without tossups.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Non-Battleground Polling:

Gravis (R) did a very weird thing: it polled only CD-02 for Maine, but not the entire state. It claims that Obama is only ahead by three in ME-02, 50/47. Now, PPP (D) also just put out it's final poll for ME, showing Obama 57 / Romney 42, margin, Obama +15, and in CD-02, it shows a +5 spread for the President in ME-02. For this reason, in the list above, I listed ME as (1.5), meaning that 1.5 polls were taken of the state. You cannot do a lot with just 1/2 of a state poll. Here the entire polling history of ME for 2012:


Nr. MAINE Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und. Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A





















inc. Gravis (R) - CD2 only 02.11.12 509 LV +/-4.1 50 47 3 3
13b PPP (D) – FINAL POLL – CD2 02.11.12 1633 LV +/-2.4 51 46 3 5
13a PPP (D) – FINAL POLL - CD1 02.11.12 1633 LV +/-2.4 59 39 2 20
13 PPP (D) – FINAL POLL 02.11.12 1633 LV +/-2.4 57 42 1 15
12b NMB (R) / American Crossroads Pac (Rove) -CD2 12.10.12 500 LV +/-4.0 44 49 7 -5
12 NMB (R) / American Crossroads Pac (Rove) 12.10.12 500 LV +/-4.0 48 44 8 4
11b Pan Atlantic SMS Group - CD2 10.10.12 400 LV +/-4.9 49,00 38,10 12,90 10,90
11a Pan Atlantic SMS Group -CD1 10.10.12 400 LV +/-4.9 52,50 35,40 12,10 17,10
11 Pan Atlantic SMS Group 10.10.12 400 LV +/-4.9 50,80 36,80 12,40 14,00
10b Critical Insights / Maine Today * -CD2 01.10.12 618 LV +/-4.0 46 41 13 5
10a Critical Insights / Maine Today * -CD1 01.10.12 618 LV +/-4.0



10 Critical Insights / Maine Today * 01.10.12 618 LV +/-4.0 52 36 12 16
9 Rasmussen 28.09.12 500 LV +/-4.5 52 40 8 12
8b MPRC – CD 2 19.09.12 993 RV +/-3.11 47,80 41,00 11,20 6,80
8a MPRC – CD1 19.09.12 993 RV +/-3.11 58,70 33,90 7,40 24,80
8 MPRC 19.09.12 856 RV +/-3.35 53,50 37,30 9,20 16,20
7 PPP (D) 19.09.12 804 LV +/-3.5 55 39 6 16
6 Moore Consulting 15.08.12 500 RV +/-3.5 52 37 11 15
5 Critical Insights 11.07.12 615 RV +/-4.0 49 35 16 14
4 WBUR 18.06.12 506 LV +/-4.40 48 34 18 14
3 Critical Insights 12.05.12 600 RV +/-4.0 50 42 8 8
2b MPRC – CD 2 05.04.12 993 RV +/-3.11 48 41 11 7
2a MPRC – CD1 05.04.12 993 RV +/-3.11 61 33 6 28
2 MPRC 05.04.12 993 RV +/-3.11 55 37 7 18
1 PPP (D) 08.03.12 1256 LV +/-2.8 58 35 7 23





And here we can clearly tell that Karl Rove's poll of ME from early October, showing Romney ahead by +5 in ME-02 was just a feint to try to get the Democrats to sink money into the state, which of course they did not do.  Numbers trumps propaganda every time!

The latest Nielson Poll of South Dakota (the gold standard for that state) is back to showing Romney +8, which is pretty much where John McCain left off in 2008, which brings me back to my premise over a number of weeks that large parts of the "Breadbasket" - which will 100% go for Romney - are not springing back to the massive Bush 43 margins from 2004 or the Reagan margins from 1984 and 1980. In the South, Romney is mostly doing better than McCain did, and in states like Utah and Idaho (and, I assume, Wyoming).

The latest polls of Hawaii shows "only" Obama +27. This is a decrease of 9 points over the only Hawaii poll from 2008, which Obama then bested by 7.5 points. Most likely, Obama will still come over +30 in his birth-state, but the shine of 2008 is also gone in the Aloha State. I would just remind that this margin is still better than anything that Romney is showing outside of Utah and Idaho, and neither Reagan nor Bush 41 nor Clinton nor Bush 42 ever won their home states by such a lofty margin, ever. So, once again, context is everything.

The latest poll of California, a Field poll (for which there is not yet) a link to the .pdf shows Obama +15 in the largest electoral prize in the Union, and this moves his California average to +16.33, which is 7.77 points under his average from 2008. If he wins California by +16 instead of +24 as he did in 2008, then that translates to about 1,000,000 LESS votes in margin for him here.

I am pointing to these examples for there is no doubt that Obama has experience erosion in some key CORE DEM states: CA, OR, HI, MA, CT, IL (probably DE as well, but no polling there). This will surely cost him 3,000,000 votes on margin, when all is said and done. But there are other CORE DEM states where he is pretty much running exactly where he did in 2008: ME, WA, RI, MD. So, the erosion is not uniform.

As, as South Dakota points out, Romney is not making gains everywhere in RED territory either.

The long and short of it is that, as of 4 days before the most expensive election in our Union's history, the President has experienced a certain amount of erosion in the numbers, but not enough to shake his CORE electoral column, and he is still decidedly closer to the magic number 270 than Romney. Actually, he is already over 270 right now.

Of course, the Romney team knows this, which is why they are trying for a "Hail-Mary pass" in Pennsylvania this weekend. The problem is that we will probably not get enough flash polling out of the Keystone state in order to know if a major Romney/Ryan presence their could flip PA. It is unlikely, but were it to happen, and Obama maintains all of the West, wins OH and CO but loses VA, then Romney can win PA and Obama still comes in at 270. Look:





This probably also explains why Gravis (R) suddenly rushed out a ME-02 poll, to make it look as if Romney could pick up ME-02, in which case that map would become a 269-269 horror-scenario tie.


I also did a write-up on Pennsylvania just a couple of days ago, reminding of the electoral history of this state and its symbiotic relationship to Ohio, which you can read here.

FACIT:  if Obama is still ahead in Ohio and Nevada on November 5th, then he will be re-elected.


The National Numbers:
Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE (one week): N/A N/A N/A
47,62 47,15 5,24 0,47

AVERAGE (3-day):



47,76 46,75 5,48 1,01

Average (1 day):



47,70 47,40 4,90 0,30

Average (mean-value):



47,69 47,10 5,21 0,59











RECENT:

















715 UPI / CVOTER 02.11.12 1470 LV +/-4.5
48 48 4 0
714 Zogby (online) 02.11.12 1030 LV +/-3.1
48,2 46,3 5,5 1,9
713 Ipsos/Reuters 02.11.12 5114 LV +/-3.4
46 46 8 0
712 ABC / WaPo 02.11.12 2131 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
711 Purple Strategies - FINAL POLL 02.11.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
47 46 7 1
710 Washington Times / Zogby 02.11.12 800 LV +/-3.4
48,7 48,5 2,8 0,2
709 Rasmussen - daily tracking 02.11.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
48 48 4 0
708 PPP (D) / AUC – daily tracking 01.11.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
49 48 3 1
706 High Point University (NC) 01.11.12 805 LV +/-3.45
46 43 11 3
699 CBS / Times 31.10.12 563 LV +/-4.0
48 47 5 1
697 YouGov 31.10.12 1000 A +/-4.6
48 47 5 1
695 National Journal / United Technologies 31.10.12 713 LV +/-4.4
50 45 5 5
692 Fox News 31.10.12 1128 LV +/-3.0
46 46 8 0
689 NPR / DemCorps (D) / Resurgent Republic (R) 30.10.10 1000 LV +/-5.6
47 48 5 -1
384 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 30.10.12 1400 LV +/-2.6
49 49 2 0
682 Pew Research 29.10.12 1495 LV +/-2.9
47 47 6 0
681 ARG 29.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
48 48 4 0
680 GWU/Politico Battleground 29.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1
675 Gallup (LV Screen) - daily tracking 29.10.12 2700 LV +/-2.0
46 51 3 -5
671 Investors Business Daily / TIPP - daily tracking 28.10.12 1097 LV +/-3.5
45,4 44,1 10,5 1,3

There were 7 polls from 11/02 of 20 in the total mix. All results are LV.

You will now notice that I am calculating three averages as of today, plus a mean value based on them. Obama has retaken the lead in national polling.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-11-002: Obama +0.47% (+0.25 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-11-001Obama +0.22 (-0.31 shift -or- +0.31 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-031 Romney +0.09 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-030Romney +0.16 (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-029Romney +0.16 (+0.08 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-028Romney +0.08 (-0.01 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-027Romney +0.09 (-0.10 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-026Romney +0.19 (+0.11 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-025Romney +0.08 (+0.25 shift -or- -0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-024Obama +0.17 (-0.38 shift -or- +0.38 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-023Romney +0.21 (+0.15 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-022Romney +0.06 (-0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-021Romney +0.19 (+0.54 shift -or- -0.54 shift)
Here was  the polling outlook for 2012-10-020Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.34% / Romney +3.34%


For the twenty-third day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.



November 2nd, 2012 
marked exactly 4 days until the General Election.

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