02 November 2012

Battleground Report 11/01/2012: T-minus 5 days


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 11/01/2012: T-minus 5 days 





Thursday, November 1st, 2012, was exactly 5 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012. 

Flashback to 2008: here is the Battleground Report for 10/30/2008, 5 days before that election. 

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 11/01/2012 in GOOGLE DRIVE. All polls are hyperlinked. 

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. The national averages, all the way back to September 13, 2012, are at the bottom of the report.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


Here is the battleground table for 11/01:


A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 01.11.12 31.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
NC 15 2,79% 1 / 8 2,25 2,43 -0,18 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 2,87 2,58
FL 29 5,39% 2 / 12 0,43 0,52 -0,09 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 2,22 3,24
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 9 / 19 0,22 0,09 0,31 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -7,32 -7,04
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 11 0,54 0,26 0,28 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -4,39 -5,76
CO 9 1,67% 4 / 8 0,68 1,55 -0,87 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,94 -8,27
OH 18 3,35% 2 / 16 2,49 2,92 -0,43 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 0,19 -2,09
IA 6 1,12% 2 / 7 2,53 2,95 -0,42 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -10,22 -7,00
NH 4 0,74% 0 / 5 3,00 3,00 0,00 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -7,43 -6,61
NV 6 1,12% 0 / 7 3,75 3,14 0,61 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -3,08 -8,74
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 4 4,27 4,27 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -10,17 -12,17
WI 10 1,86% 3 / 7 4,57 4,20 0,37 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -6,77 -9,33
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 3 5,00 5,00 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -2,30 -5,31
----------------------------------------------------------------

There were 19 polls for 10 states (7 true battlegrounds) on 11/01: CO (2), CO (2), FL (2), IA, IA, NV, NC, OH, OH, RI, VA, WA (2), WI (3)


That makes for 76 polls to-date since Electoral Landscape No. 7 from 10/29, three days before.

 24 of those polls came from just five states: FL, IA, OH, VA, and WI.

It appears that Ipsos/Reuters is doing a nightly 4 state poll of CO, FL, OH and VA.

11/01 was the day for dueling polls in Colorado, which is doubtless one of the three tightest states in the race. There were 2 polls showing Obama ahead and 2 polls showing Romney ahead:



Nr. COLORADO Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und. Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 48,01 47,34 4,65 0,68










Most recent (one week):















51 Rasmussen 01.11.12 500 LV +/-4.5 47 50 3 -3
50 CallFire / Faith Horizon 01.11.12 839 LV +/-3.4 49 48 3 1
49 Ipsos / Reuters 01.11.12 694 LV +/-4.2 46 47 7 -1
48 CNN / ORC 01.11.12 764 LV +/-3.5 50 48 2 2
46 WAA (R) 31.10.12 1246 LV +/-2.9 50,1 46,7 3,2 3,4
45 Grove New Insight (D) / PNA 30.10.12 500 LV +/-4.4 48 45 7 3
44 ARG 29.10.12 600 LV +/-4.4 47 48 5 -1
43 Purple Strategies 26.10.12 600 LV +/-3.1 47 46 7 1


It is interesting, the mix of these four polls: Ipsos/Reuters, which has generally been more favorable in polling to President Obama, is showing Mitt Romney ahead by a nose. But CallFire / Faith Horizon, which is a right-wing leaning pollster, shows the President ahead by a nose. The CNN poll is probably the most neutral of the two.  WAPO is reporting that of the early votes sent in in Colorado, registered Republicans are slightly outnumbering registered Democrats in getting their early ballots in. But that doesn't say too much, as Colorado has a slew of unaffilliated (Independent) voters. However, at this time four years ago, registered Democrats had the early voting edge in this state.  Flip a coin.


Florida moved slightly toward Obama. On 10/31, the average was Romney +0.52. On 11/01:


Nr. FLORIDA Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und. Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 47,94 48,38 3,68 -0,43










Most recent (no repeaters):















97 Ipsos / Reuters 01.11.12 897 LV +/-3.7 48 46 6 2
96 Grove (D) / PNA 01.11.12 600 LV +/-4.0 48 47 5 1
95 NewsmaxZogby Swing States 31.10.12 825 LV +/-3.5 47,4 47,7 4,9 -0,3
94 Mellman (D) / AUC 31.10.12 800 LV +/-4.4 49 47 4 2
93 Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS 31.10.12 1073 LV +/-3.0 48 47 5 1
92 Gravis Marketing (R) 31.10.12 549 LV +/-4.2 47 50 3 -3
90 WAA (R) 31.10.12 1146 LV +/-3.0 48,9 49,8 1,3 -0,9
88 SUSA 30.10.12 595 LV +/-4.1 47 47 6 0
86 CNN / ORC 29.10.12 770 LV +-3.5 49 50 1 -1
85 PPP (D) 28.10.12 687 LV +/-3.7 49 48 3 1
84 Rasmussen 26.10.12 750 LV +/-4.5 48 50 2 -2
83 Sunshine State News / VSS 26.10.12 1001 LV +/-3.1 46 51 3 -5


The Ipsos-Reuters poll shows an improvement for the President over the day before. Notice that Rasmussen has not yet put out a counter-poll of Florida, yet.


Speaking of counter-polls, when the 5 strong polls for Obama came in for Ohio on 10/31, I was already innerly chuckling and wondering how long it would take for an extreme-ring-wing pollster to put out a poll totally to the contrary, and my thoughts were fullfille on 11/01. Wenzel (R), and extreme right-wing pollster who often produces polling data for World Net Daily, which is a "birther" website, suddenly appeared with a poll claiming Romney +3, 49/46, in the Buckeye State:


Nr. OHIO Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 48,90 46,41 4,69 2,49










Most recent (no repeaters, one week):















96 Ipsos / Reuters 01.11.12 936 LV +/-3.7 47 45 8 2
95 Wenzel (R) / Citizens United (R) 01.11.12 1281 LV +/-2.7 46 49 5 -3
94 NewsmaxZogby Swing States 31.10.12 826 LV +/-3.5 50,4 44,3 5,3 6,1
93 Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS 31.10.12 1100 LV +/-3.0 50 45 5 5
92 PPP (D) / Health Care for America Now 31.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 50 45 5 5
91 Ohio Poll / U of Cincy 31.10.12 1182 LV +/-2.9 48 46 6 2
89 Grove Insight (D) / PNA / USAction 30.10.12 500 LV +/-4.4 48 45 7 3
88 SUSA 30.10.12 603 LV +/-4.1 48 45 7 3
86 Mellmann (D) / AFC 30.10.12

49 44 7 5
85 Pharos Research 30.10.12 765 LV +/-3.5 49 46,3 4,7 2,7
83 Rasmussen 29.10.12 750 LV +/-4.5 48 50 2 -2
82 Gravis (R) 28.10.12 730 LV +/-3.6 50 49 1 1
81 PPP (D) 28.10.12 718 LV +/-3.7 51 47 2 4
80 Ohio Newspaper Poll (Enquirer, Dispatch) 28.10.12 1015 LV +/-3.1 49 49 2 0
79 CNN/ORC 26.10.12 741 LV +/-3.5 50 46 4 4
77 ARG 26.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 49 47 4 2



Compared to the Zogby poll from 10/31, which claims Obama +6.1, that is a 9 point differential in a state that has been hotly contested. To remind: there have now been 96 polls of Ohio, and Romney has lead in 10 over the entire year. Obama has lead in 78 polls, including all polls from neutral pollsters. And note that Rasmussen has not yet put out a new poll of Ohio. Had Rasmussen data showing a Romney lead, you can be guaranteed that they would publish it as fast as possible. 

This poll, of course, causes a margin change, down to Obama +2.49, only because I accept all polls, even from whackadoodles, for after the election, I will be doing a very stringent run-down on all of these pollsters to compare their work to the actual results.

Oh, and that Wenzel poll shows Republican challenger, post-pubescent Josh Mandel, leading Sherrod Brown (D-Inc) by +5 in the Ohio Senatorial. In all other polls, Brown is leading and will probably win by around +8. This should tell you how really out of touch Wenzel, which is based at a PO Box in Columbus, OH, is.


One more note about Ohio, one I have made often: Obama outperformed his Ohio end polling in 2008: his average was Obama +2.30 right before election day in 2008, but he won my home state by +4.58%. Right now, his polling average is HIGHER than it was going into his first election. If history repeats itself, then President Obama will probably win Ohio by a slightly larger margin than he did in 2008.  With every passing day,  more and more Ohioans vote early, and the stats are point to about a 63 / 37 spread in the early voting, for Obama. This means that Romney will have to absolutely dominate among voters who come out on election day, and with every passing day, this climb will get steeper for him.

Virginia ticked upward in the statistic, to Obama +0.54.

Like Colorado, Iowa also received dueling polls, from Rasmussen (Romney +1) and Firecall (Obama +3):


Nr. IOWA Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und. Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 48,74 46,21 5,04 2,53


















32 CallFire / Faith Horizon 01.11.12 891 LV +/-3.4 50 47 3 3
31 Rasmussen 01.11.12 750 LV +/-4.5 48 49 3 -1
30 NBC / WSJ/ Marist 31.10.12 1142 LV +/-2.9 50 44 6 6
29 University of Iowa 31.10.12 320 A +/-5.6 44,4 45,2 10,4 -0,8
28 PPP (D) / Healthcare for America Now 31.10.12 676 LV +/-3.8 50 45 5 5
27 WAA (R) 31.10.12 1174 LV +/-3.0 48,8 47,3 3,9 1,5
26 Gravis (R) 26.10.12 517 LV +/-4.3 50 46 4 4


Notice how close the Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire margins are to each other.

There was no polling in Pennsylvania, but with the Romney team hitting the Keystone State at the weekend, I expect a Republican controlled Susqehanna poll to come out claiming Romney +4 again in a state he is sure to lose on Tuesday. I just did a write-up on the Romney campaign in Pennsylvania and included stats from PA's electoral history that are most enlightening. You can read that write-up HERE. If you look at the partisan table at the bottom of that report, you will see the symbiotic relationship between Ohio and Pennsylvania in presidential elections going back to 1964. For Romney to win PA, he needs to be leading in Ohio by about 5 right now, and he is not.

Wisconsin received three polls, also showing a huge disparity: The St. Norbert poll shows Obama +9, Rasmussen shows an absolute tie, 49/49, just as it did one week ago. That is a 9 point disparity and not really possible in the same universe at the same time:


Nr. WISCONSIN Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 49,86 45,29 4,86 4,57


















59 Wenzel (R) / Citizens United (R) 01.11.12 1074 LV +/-3.0 49 47 4 2
58 Rasmussen 01.11.02 500 LV +/-4.5 49 49 2 0
57 St. Norbert Poll 01.11.12 402 LV +/-5.0 52 43 5 9
56 NBC / WSJ/ Marist 31.10.12 1065 LV +/-3.0 49 46 5 3
55 PPP (D) / Health Care for America Now 31.10.12 825 LV +/-3.4 51 46 3 5
54 Marquette 31.10.12 1243 LV +/-2.8 51 43 6 8
53 Grove (D) / PNA 26.10.12 500 LV +/-4.4 48 43 9 5
52 Rasmussen 26.10.12 500 LV +/-4.5 49 49 2 0




Not in spite of that, Wisconsin has moved upward to an average of Obama +4.57, preparing to leave the battlegrounds.

Nevada also received a SUSA poll, showing Obama +4, 50/46:


Nr. NEVADA Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und. Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 49,75 46,00 4,25 3,75


















37 SUSA 01.11.12 1212 LV +/-2.9 50 46 4 4
36 Grove Insight (D) / Project New America 29.10.12 500 LV +/-4.4 49 43 8 6
35 CallFire / Faith Horizon Poll 28.10.12 909 LV +/-3.4 50 46 4 4
34 Gravis (R) 26.10.12 955 LV +/-3.2 50 49 1 1
33 NBC / WSJ / Marist 25.10.12 1042 LV +/-3.0 50 47 3 3
32 Rasmussen 24.10.12 500 LV +/-4.5 50 48 2 2
31 PPP (D) 24.10.12 636 LV +/-3.9 51 47 2 4
30 ARG 23.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 49 47 4 2


The early voting stats tell me that there is a very, very high possibility that Obama has now locked up this state, which is why the Romney team is no longer visiting Nevada. The average has moved up to Obama +3.75.


The High Point Poll that came out for North Carolina is probably an outlier, not because it shows Romney +1, but because the toplines are so low. Notice that there is not a lot of chatter about North Carolina right now. I think that the Obama team is tacitly ceding the state to Romney. I bet that their internals show them losing here by a razor-thin but resilient margin.


Non-Battleground Polling:

Rhode Island received a new poll, showing Obama +21, slightly less than his October numbers:


Nr. RHODE ISLAND Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Mar. Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 57,75 32,70 9,55 25,05


















3 Fleming and Assoc. 01.11.12 601 LV +/-4.0 54,4 33,4 12,2 21
2 Brown Univ. 10.10.12 471 LV +/-4.5 58,2 32,3 9,5 25,9
1 Fleming and Assoc. 02.10.12 501 LV +/-4.38 57,3 33,1 9,6 24,2

In Washington State, two new polls came in, both strengthing the President's average, which is now: Obama +15.90, stronger than his polling average right before the election of 2008.

Right now, if the trends hold, then President Obama is on track to win at least 303 Electoral Votes to Romney's 235, assuming that Romney wins both NC And FL, which is a good possibility.



The National Numbers:

Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE (one week): N/A N/A N/A
47,46 47,24 5,31 0,22

AVERAGE (3-day):



47,59 47,10 5,31 0,49

Average (1 day):



47,29 47,18 5,54 0,11

Average (mean-value):



47,45 47,17 5,38 0,28











RECENT:

















708 PPP (D) / AUC – daily tracking 01.11.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
49 48 3 1
707 ABC / WaPo 01.11.12 1293 LV +/-3.5
49 48 3 1
706 High Point University (NC) 01.11.12 805 LV +/-3.45
46 43 11 3
705 Ipsos/Reuters 01.11.02 4556 LV +/-3.4
47 46 7 1
704 Zogby (online) 01.11.02 1030 LV +/-3.1
47,2 47,1 5,7 0,1
703 UPI / CVOTER 01.11.12 1470 LV +/-4.5
48 48 4 0
702 Rasmussen - daily tracking 01.11.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
47 49 4 -2
701 Zogby (online) 01.11.12 1015 LV +/-3.1
45,1 48,3 6,6 -3,2
699 CBS / Times 31.10.12 563 LV +/-4.0
48 47 5 1
697 YouGov 31.10.12 1000 A +/-4.6
48 47 5 1
695 National Journal / United Technologies 31.10.12 713 LV +/-4.4
50 45 5 5
692 Fox News 31.10.12 1128 LV +/-3.0
46 46 8 0
689 NPR / DemCorps (D) / Resurgent Republic (R) 30.10.10 1000 LV +/-5.6
47 48 5 -1
384 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 30.10.12 1400 LV +/-2.6
49 49 2 0
682 Pew Research 29.10.12 1495 LV +/-2.9
47 47 6 0
681 ARG 29.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
48 48 4 0
680 GWU/Politico Battleground 29.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1
675 Gallup (LV Screen) - daily tracking 29.10.12 2700 LV +/-2.0
46 51 3 -5
671 Investors Business Daily / TIPP - daily tracking 28.10.12 1097 LV +/-3.5
45,4 44,1 10,5 1,3


There were 8 polls from 11/01 of 19 in the total mix. All results are LV.

You will now notice that I am calculating three averages as of today, plus a mean value based on them. Obama has retaken the lead in national polling.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-11-001: Obama +0.22 (-0.31 shift -or- +0.31 shift) 


Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-031 Romney +0.09 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-030Romney +0.16 (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-029Romney +0.16 (+0.08 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-028Romney +0.08 (-0.01 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-027Romney +0.09 (-0.10 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-026Romney +0.19 (+0.11 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-025Romney +0.08 (+0.25 shift -or- -0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-024Obama +0.17 (-0.38 shift -or- +0.38 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-023Romney +0.21 (+0.15 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-022Romney +0.06 (-0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-021Romney +0.19 (+0.54 shift -or- -0.54 shift)
Here was  the polling outlook for 2012-10-020Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.59% / Romney +3.59%


For the twenty-second day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.



November 1st, 2012 
marked exactly 5 days until the General Election.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.