01 November 2012

Battleground Report 10/31/2012: T-minus 6 days


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 10/31/2012: T-minus 6 days 





Wednesday, October 31st, 2012, was exactly 6 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012. 

Flashback to 2008: here is the Battleground Report for 10/29/2008, 6 days before that election. 

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/31/2012 in GOOGLE DRIVE. All polls are hyperlinked. 

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. The national averages, all the way back to September 13, 2012, are at the bottom of the report.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


Here is the battleground table for 10/31:

A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 31.10.12 30.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
NE 5 0,93% 1 / 3 18,67 11,00 7,67 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -0,33 3,74
IN 11 2,04% 1 / 2 15,50 13,00 2,50 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 14,32 16,53
MO 10 1,86% 1 / 4 10,40 10,76 -0,36 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 9,94 10,27
GA 16 2,97% 0 / 3 9,00 9,00 0,00 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 5,15 3,80
MT 3 0,56% 0 / 3 8,57 8,57 0,00 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 6,93 6,19
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 3 5,00 5,00 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 0,57 -3,48
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 5,00 5,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 9,00 6,21
NC 15 2,79% 1 / 7 2,43 2,43 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 3,05 2,76
FL 29 5,39% 6 / 12 0,52 0,54 -0,02 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 2,31 3,33
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 8 / 18 0,09 0,34 -0,25 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 7,63 7,35
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
VA 13 2,42% 5 / 11 0,26 1,03 -0,77 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -4,67 -6,04
CO 9 1,67% 2 / 8 1,55 1,67 -0,12 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,07 -7,40
OH 18 3,35% 6 / 15 2,92 2,54 0,38 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 0,62 -1,66
IA 6 1,12% 4 / 6 2,95 2,00 0,95 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -9,80 -6,58
NH 4 0,74% 1 / 5 3,00 2,57 0,43 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -7,43 -6,61
NV 6 1,12% 0 / 7 3,14 3,14 0,00 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -3,69 -9,35
WI 10 1,86% 3 / 5 4,20 3,50 0,70 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -7,14 -9,70
MI 16 2,97% 3 / 4 4,27 4,68 -0,41 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -10,17 -12,17
PA 20 3,72% 1 / 3 5,00 5,28 -0,28 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -2,30 -5,31
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 4 6,25 6,25 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -9,32 -10,10
MN 10 1,86% 1 / 5 6,60 6,33 0,27 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -4,74 -3,64
NM 5 0,93% 0 / 3 7,67 7,67 0,00 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 -1,59 -7,46
----------------------------------------------------------------

There were 37 polls for 16 states (10 true battlegrounds) on 10/31: CO, CO, FL (2), FL (3), FL, IL, IN, IA (3), IA, MA, MI (3), MN, MO, NE, NH, NC, OH (5), PA, VA (5), WI (3)  

Tht makes for 57 polls to-date since Electoral Landscape No. 7 from 10/29, two days before.

 24 of those polls came from just five states: FL, IA, OH, VA, and WI.

What stands out about these polls is that there were multiple polls of three-four states from high-quality pollsters such as Qunnipiac, Marist and Ipsos/ Reuters - who do live telephone interviews and generally have a larger LV group, and therefore, a lower MoE.

I have included the outer fringes of the battleground table, but you can see for yourself that NE, IN, MT and GA are not battleground states. However, since I have been tracking them now over six weeks, I still input the data on the battleground table as well, just to see how they are shaping up.

All things measured, it was a very, very good day in polling for President Obama and a very, very bad day for Mitt Romney, no matter how you slice it.

Florida is extremely telling in that, in spite of 6 brand-new polls and a number of polls that were cycled out, it is still a very tossupy Romney +0.52 average.


Nr. FLORIDA Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und. Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 47,78 48,29 3,93 -0,52










Most recent (no repeaters):















95 NewsmaxZogby Swing States 31.10.12 825 LV +/-3.5 47,4 47,7 4,9 -0,3
94 Mellman (D) / AUC 31.10.12 800 LV +/-4.4 49 47 4 2
93 Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS 31.10.12 1073 LV +/-3.0 48 47 5 1
92 Gravis Marketing (R) 31.10.12 549 LV +/-4.2 47 50 3 -3
91 Ipsos / Reuters 31.10.12 716 LV +/-4.2 47 47 6 0
90 WAA (R) 31.10.12 1146 LV +/-3.0 48,9 49,8 1,3 -0,9
88 SUSA 30.10.12 595 LV +/-4.1 47 47 6 0
86 CNN / ORC 29.10.12 770 LV +-3.5 49 50 1 -1
85 PPP (D) 28.10.12 687 LV +/-3.7 49 48 3 1
84 Rasmussen 26.10.12 750 LV +/-4.5 48 50 2 -2
83 Sunshine State News / VSS 26.10.12 1001 LV +/-3.1 46 51 3 -5
82 Grove (D) / PNA / USAction 25.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 47 45 8 2


In two says, that Sunshine State poll will fall out of the statistic, and it is very likely that this average could become even smaller. For a while, through last week, Romney was hitting the 50 mark a lot in Florida, but of the 12 polls here, he has hit or gone over 50 in only 4 of those 12. Both sides are saying very openly that this is all about the ground game now, about GOTV. Now, Suffolk and Insider Advantage have already called the race for Romney. I think they are being hasty. Wait and see.



The most devastating news of the day came from Ohio, where once again, a slew of new polls came in, all showing Obama ahead in the Buckeye State.  His average, with 6 new polls of 15 in the gene pool, has risen to Obama +2.92, and, based on polls that will fall out of the statistic soon, this average is very likely to rise again:


Nr. OHIO Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 49,16 46,24 4,60 2,92










Most recent (no repeaters, one week):















94 NewsmaxZogby Swing States 31.10.12 826 LV +/-3.5 50,4 44,3 5,3 6,1
93 Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS 31.10.12 1100 LV +/-3.0 50 45 5 5
92 PPP (D) / Health Care for America Now 31.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 50 45 5 5
91 Ohio Poll / U of Cincy 31.10.12 1182 LV +/-2.9 48 46 6 2
90 Ipsos / Reuters 31.10.12 885 LV +/-3.8 48 45 7 3
89 Grove Insight (D) / PNA / USAction 30.10.12 500 LV +/-4.4 48 45 7 3
88 SUSA 30.10.12 603 LV +/-4.1 48 45 7 3
86 Mellmann (D) / AFC 30.10.12

49 44 7 5
85 Pharos Research 30.10.12 765 LV +/-3.5 49 46,3 4,7 2,7
83 Rasmussen 29.10.12 750 LV +/-4.5 48 50 2 -2
82 Gravis (R) 28.10.12 730 LV +/-3.6 50 49 1 1
81 PPP (D) 28.10.12 718 LV +/-3.7 51 47 2 4
80 Ohio Newspaper Poll (Enquirer, Dispatch) 28.10.12 1015 LV +/-3.1 49 49 2 0
79 CNN/ORC 26.10.12 741 LV +/-3.5 50 46 4 4
77 ARG 26.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 49 47 4 2


That being said, in just the last 3 polls, Obama has hit the 50 mark again. What is often not being said is that many of these pollsters are now starting to poll for Johnson as well, and he is often getting about 2% of the vote.

One more note about Ohio, one I have made often: Obama outperformed his Ohio end polling in 2008: his average was Obama +2.30 right before election day in 2008, but he won my home state by +4.58%. Right now, his polling average is HIGHER than it was going into his first election. If history repeats itself, then President Obama will probably win Ohio by a slightly larger margin than he did in 2008.  With every passing day,  more and more Ohioans vote early, and the stats are point to about a 63 / 37 spread in the early voting, for Obama. This means that Romney will have to absolutely dominate among voters who come out on election day, and with every passing day, this climb will get steeper for him.

Virginia is moving closer and closer to an absolute tie, and, like Florida, it will all come down to GOTV and the ground game. There is, however, one pretty large outlier poll in the VA mix:


Nr. VIRGINIA Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 47,61 47,35 5,05 0,26










Most Recent (one-week, no repeaters:)















79 NewsmaxZogby Swing States 31.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5 46,7 47,8 5,5 -1,1
78 Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS 31.10.12 1074 LV +/-3.0 49 47 4 2
77 Roanoke 31.10.12 683 LV +/-4.0 44 50 6 -6
76 PPP (D) / Health Care for America Now 31.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 49 46 5 3
75 Ipsos / Reuters 31.10.12 703 LV +/-3.8 48 46 6 2
73 Gravis (R) 29.10.12 645 LV +/-3.9 48 48 4 0
72 Garin Hart Yang (D) 28.10.12 807 LV +/-3.5 49 46 5 3
71 WAPO 27.10.12 1228 LV +/-3.5 51 47 2 4
68 Purple Strategies 26.10.12 600 LV +/-3.1 47 47 6 0
67 Fox News (Pulse) 25.10.12 1203 LV +/-3.0 44 46 10 -2
65 Rasmussen 25.10.12 750 LV +/-4.0 48 50 2 -2



Yes, the Roanoke poll stands out some...

Now, look at the battleground table again: you will see that overall, in the Midwest, Obama is GAINING in: OH, WI, MN and IA. He lost a little bit of ground in MI and PA, but the general trend for all of these states is that they are moving from one direction or another to the +4 mark.

Also, New Hampshire made a pretty large jump, to Obama +3.00.



Non-Battleground Polling:

Republican pollsters put out results for Republican campaigns in Illinois, Indiana and Nebraska, all showing Romney doing better than by standard pollsters. Even the wording of the WAA poll of Illinois makes it very clear that it is a partisan, anti-Obama pollster. So, if a horde of these pollsters put out depressed numbers for Obama right before election day and then he outperforms those numbers, then we will all know soon enough.

Right now, if the trends hold, then President Obama is on track to win at least 303 Electoral Votes to Romney's 235, assuming that Romney wins both NC And FL, which is a good possibility.



The National Numbers:


Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE (one week): N/A N/A N/A
47,47 47,56 4,97 0,09

AVERAGE (3-day):



47,75 47,81 4,44 0,06

Average (1 day):



47,88 47,13 5,00 0,75

Average (mean-value):



47,70 47,50 4,80 0,20











RECENT:

















700 UPI / CVOTER 31.10.12 1556 LV +/-4.5
48 48 4 0
699 CBS / Times 31.10.12 563 LV +/-4.0
48 47 5 1
698 Rasmussen - daily tracking 31.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
47 49 4 -2
697 YouGov 31.10.12 1000 A +/-4.6
48 47 5 1
695 National Journal / United Technologies 31.10.12 713 LV +/-4.4
50 45 5 5
694 Ipsos/Reuters 31.10.12 4085 LV +/-3.4
47 46 7 1
693 ABC / WaPo - Daily Tracking 31.10.12 1774 LV +/-3.5
49 49 2 0
692 Fox News 31.10.12 1128 LV +/-3.0
46 46 8 0
691 Zogby (online) 30.10.12 1073 LV +/-3.1
47 48 5 -1
689 NPR / DemCorps (D) / Resurgent Republic (R) 30.10.10 1000 LV +/-5.6
47 48 5 -1
384 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 30.10.12 1400 LV +/-2.6
49 49 2 0
682 Pew Research 29.10.12 1495 LV +/-2.9
47 47 6 0
681 ARG 29.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
48 48 4 0
680 GWU/Politico Battleground 29.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1
676 PPP (D) / AUC – daily tracking 29.10.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
48 49 3 -1
675 Gallup (LV Screen) - daily tracking 29.10.12 2700 LV +/-2.0
46 51 3 -5
671 Investors Business Daily / TIPP - daily tracking 28.10.12 1097 LV +/-3.5
45,4 44,1 10,5 1,3
654 AP/GFK 25.10.12 1512 A +/-4.3
45 47 8 -2


There were 8 polls from 10/30 of 16 in the total mix. All results are LV.
You will now notice that I am calculating three averages as of today, plus a mean value based on them.



Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-031:  Romney +0.09 (-0.09 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-030Romney +0.16 (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-029Romney +0.16 (+0.08 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-028Romney +0.08 (-0.01 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-027Romney +0.09 (-0.10 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-026Romney +0.19 (+0.11 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-025Romney +0.08 (+0.25 shift -or- -0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-024Obama +0.17 (-0.38 shift -or- +0.38 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-023Romney +0.21 (+0.15 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-022Romney +0.06 (-0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-021Romney +0.19 (+0.54 shift -or- -0.54 shift)
Here was  the polling outlook for 2012-10-020Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.90% / Romney +3.90%


For the twenty-first day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.



October 31st, 2012 
marked exactly 6 days until the General Election.

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