08 November 2012

An Open Letter to Gallup:

I sent the following letter to Gallup this morning, using their contact page:

"I have done electoral statistics on the side for 12 years now.

2010: Gallup, GOP +15. Reality: GOP +5.7. Off by 9.3!

2012: Gallup projection: 78% White electorate, leaner Obama leads among minorities vis-a-vis '08. Reality: 72% White electorate (off by 6!) + Obama led among Latinos by +50. Gallup was WAY OFF. Your model was the most terrible one out there! Your Romney by 5, 6, 7 margins on days where the rest of the known polling universe was showing a statistical tie was cause for even more dismay on my part than I experienced in 2010. Perhaps „Sandy“ saved you from even more embarrassment.

There is no way that I will ever believe a single number that Gallup produces from this point in time onward, + in the future, I refuse to accept any data from Gallup in my calculations and will inform those those use my statistics as to why I will never, ever again in my life use any data from Gallup as a resource. Shame on you!"

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