20 October 2012

RED STATE REPORT III


RED STATE REPORT III



The first RED STATE REPORT, from 09/26/2012, is HERE.
The second RED STATE REPORT, from 10/07/2012, is HERE.




There have been some changes since 10/07, most all to Mitt Romney's advantage:


State EV % of EC 2012 Avg. 2011 Avg. 20 Year Avg. 2008 2004 SWING End polling 2008 2012 vs. 2008 EP 2012 vs. 20 yr. 2012 vs. GE 2008
WY 3 0,56%

25,53 32,24 39,79 7,55 23,00 -23,00 -25,53 -32,24
OK 7 1,30% 30,00
19,57 31,29 31,14 0,15 30,15 -0,15 10,43 -1,29
UT 6 1,12% 53,00 32,00 30,89 28,02 45,54 17,52 24,00 29,00 22,11 24,98
ID 4 0,74% 36,00
26,70 25,30 38,12 12,82 23,00 13,00 9,30 10,70
AL 9 1,67% 15,00
12,64 21,58 25,62 4,04 19,33 -4,33 2,36 -6,58
AK 3 0,56%

21,34 21,54 25,55 4,01 14,58 -14,58 -21,34 -21,54
AR 6 1,12% 21,00
2,43 19,85 9,76 10,09 9,10 11,90 18,57 1,15
LA 8 1,49% 14,07 15,00 5,73 18,63 14,51 4,12 10,43 3,64 8,34 -4,56
KY 8 1,49% 14,00
10,30 16,22 19,86 3,64 12,40 1,60 3,70 -2,22
TN 11 2,04% 9,00 11,00 7,38 15,06 14,27 0,79 14,00 -5,00 1,62 -6,06
NE 5 0,93% 11,00 13,00 22,33 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -8,00 -11,33 -3,93
KS 6 1,12%
9,00 16,28 14,92 25,38 10,46 17,00 -17,00 -16,28 -14,92
MS 6 1,12%
18,00 14,11 13,17 19,69 6,52 10,50 -10,50 -14,11 -13,17
WV 5 0,93% 14,00 21,00 0,04 13,09 12,86 0,23 7,66 6,34 14,04 0,91
TX 38 7,06% 14,00 8,00 12,83 11,76 22,86 11,10 13,00 1,00 1,17 2,24
SC 9 1,67% 6,00 6,00 13,35 8,98 17,08 8,10 12,55 -6,55 -7,35 -2,98
ND 3 0,56% 14,00
15,94 8,65 27,36 18,71 1,34 15,34 -1,94 5,35
AZ 11 2,04% 3,50 7,00 7,70 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 -0,93 -4,20 -4,98
SD 3 0,56% 10,50 6,00 10,99 8,41 21,47 13,06 7,50 3,00 -0,49 2,09
GA 16 2,97% 8,00 7,00 9,05 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 4,15 -1,05 2,80
MT 3 0,56% 9,67 10,00 9,03 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 8,03 0,64 7,29
MO 10 1,86% 11,60 3,00 0,30 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 11,14 11,90 11,47
IN 11 2,04% 13,67
11,19 1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 12,49 24,86 12,64
Total 191 35,50% -- --
-- -- -- -- --
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There has been new polling for Red States in: UT, ID, LA, TN, TX, ND, GA, MT, MO and IN

Indiana and Missouri have moved strongly into the GOP column. 

Obama won Indiana in 2008 by +1.03%, it took a +21.73% cross-partisan shift to get him there. Right now, the average in IN is Romney +13.67%, which means that the state has shifted back about 15% to-date.

John McCain won Missouri in 2008 by only +0.13%, it was the closest race of the night. Right now, the average in MO has grown to Romney +11.60. If Obama wins re-election and MO once again does not go with the winner, then it really will lose it's standing as a bellwether state.

John McCain won Montana in 2008 by only +2.38%. The current average is Romney +9.67. Montana is not being contested, but it is still not showing the +25 margins it showed for Bush or for Reagan.

A poll came in for Idaho on 10/15 and then a poll came in for Utah on 10/19, and the relationship between the two looks pretty much right: Romney is at +53 in Utah, which has the largest LDS community in the USA. In Idaho, he is at +36. Though Wyoming has not been polled at all, I suspect that it will be in the +40 range. Utah, Wyoming and Idaho will return to Conservative Partisan Rankings 1-2-3, as they have been for most of the last 12 cycles.

Texas is pointing to a big win for the Governor, which is good for him, for the more he can pad his margin here, the more votes he gets out of the second largest state in the Union, to add to his National Popular Vote total. The last poll showed Romney +14.00, which is over McCain's win from 2008.

Georgia is also showing an average somewhat better than the 2008 statistic, but at Romney +8.00,  it is still only 1/2 of Bush's margin from 2004.  I still contend that it is a shame that there has not been one single poll of South Carolina in the last 10 months. It is really a little bizarre.

I want to point out that the area where Romney is not overperforming and perhaps, in two states, underperforming, is the breadbasket: North Daktoka, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. Absent even one single poll for Kansas, we can safely assume that the margin there will be nearly identical to the Nebraska margin, as they states have very, very parallel electoral histories. The last Nebraska poll shows Romney +11, which is under McCain's almost +15 win. In North and South Dakota, it is Romney +14 and +10.5, which is still above the circa +8.5 with which McCain won the Dakotas, but way, way, way under Bush's or Reagan's margins. I am wondering if the farm bill that is still languishing in the House of Representatives is playing a role here. Even so, Romney will win these states easily, but they will do little to help him to try to get ahead in the National Popular Vote.

In Tennessee, the sparse polling still has Romney under McCain's win from 2008. Considering that Tennessee was one of only five states in 2008 to buck the trend and actually swung more to the GOP in the face of an Obama landslide, it is indeed interesting that Tennessee is not showing a double-margin for Romney, whereas Arkansas, West Virginia, Louisiana and Oklahoma - the four other states to swing more GOP in 2008, are all showing margins equal to or better than 2008. Currently, the margin in Tennessee is Romney +9.00.

Arizona is the big question mark of the solid RED states. With the controversial immigration law, Latinos arising and very possibly, very bad poll calculations for the Latino vote in the SW, Romney's average in AZ, +3.50, is not a healthy average. Obama is not trying to seriously contest Arizona, but this change should be noted for the future.

As stated in RED STATE REPORT I and II, these 191 EV are absolutely sure for Romney, even Arizona.

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