08 October 2012

RED STATE REPORT II - 10/07/2012

RED STATE REPORT II



The first RED STATE REPORT, from 09/26/2012, is HERE.

As promised, here is the updated table:

State EV % of EC 2012 Avg. 2011 Avg. 20 Year Avg. 2008 2004 SWING End polling 2008 2012 vs. 2008 EP 2012 vs. 20 yr. 2012 vs. GE 2008
WY 3 0,56%

25,53 32,24 39,79 7,55 23,00 -23,00 -25,53 -32,24
OK 7 1,30% 30,00
19,57 31,29 31,14 0,15 30,15 -0,15 10,43 -1,29
UT 6 1,12% 42,00 32,00 30,89 28,02 45,54 17,52 24,00 18,00 11,11 13,98
ID 4 0,74%

26,70 25,30 38,12 12,82 23,00 -23,00 -26,70 -25,30
AL 9 1,67% 15,00
12,64 21,58 25,62 4,04 19,33 -4,33 2,36 -6,58
AK 3 0,56%

21,34 21,54 25,55 4,01 14,58 -14,58 -21,34 -21,54
AR 6 1,12% 21,00
2,43 19,85 9,76 10,09 9,10 11,90 18,57 1,15
LA 8 1,49% 9,60 15,00 5,73 18,63 14,51 4,12 10,43 -0,83 3,87 -9,03
KY 8 1,49% 14,00
10,30 16,22 19,86 3,64 12,40 1,60 3,70 -2,22
TN 11 2,04% 7,00 11,00 7,38 15,06 14,27 0,79 14,00 -7,00 -0,38 -8,06
NE 5 0,93% 11,00 13,00 22,33 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -8,00 -11,33 -3,93
KS 6 1,12%
9,00 16,28 14,92 25,38 10,46 17,00 -17,00 -16,28 -14,92
MS 6 1,12%
18,00 14,11 13,17 19,69 6,52 10,50 -10,50 -14,11 -13,17
WV 5 0,93% 14,00 21,00 0,04 13,09 12,86 0,23 7,66 6,34 14,04 0,91
TX 38 7,06% 15,00 8,00 12,83 11,76 22,86 11,10 13,00 2,00 2,17 3,24
SC 9 1,67% -3,00 6,00 13,35 8,98 17,08 8,10 12,55 -15,55 -16,35 -11,98
ND 3 0,56% 12,00
15,94 8,65 27,36 18,71 1,34 13,34 -3,94 3,35
AZ 11 2,04% 7,20 7,00 7,70 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 2,77 -0,50 -1,28
SD 3 0,56% 15,20 6,00 10,99 8,41 21,47 13,06 7,50 7,70 4,21 6,79
GA 16 2,97% 13,50 7,00 9,05 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 9,65 4,45 8,30
MT 3 0,56% 6,50 10,00 9,03 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 4,86 -2,53 4,12
MO 10 1,86% 9,10 3,00 0,30 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 8,64 9,40 8,97
IN 11 2,04% 6,00
11,19 1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 4,82 17,19 4,97
Total 191 35,50% -- --
-- -- -- -- --
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Legend:

-all state names are linked, but those links have gone defunct. The state bios, however, are also right here at Blogspot.

-the number of EV and their respective % of the EC is self-explanatory. With IN, they add up to 191. Without IN, they add up to 180 EV according to the 2012 distribution of electors. In 2008, those same 22 states were worth 174 electors, 1 of which went for Obama (NE-02), so the GOP has automatically picked up 6 EV without adding a single state. In other words, the CORE GOP states just upped their percentage of the EC.

-the values for the 2012 and 2011 averages are there. Obviously, the 2011 averages are set in stone, but the 2012 averages may very well change and I hope to God that some of these states will get fresh polls. Any value in italics means that the state was polled only once, so that is the one-time polling margin and not an average. 

All of the blank fields you see mean that that particular state has not been polled at all in 2012: 

WY, ID, AK, KS, MS


Plus, the following red states have either been polled only once in 2012 or have only one poll in the "average":

OK, UT, AL, AR, KY, LA, TN, NE, WV, SD

So, only 8 GOP states have more than one poll in their current average:

TX, ND, AZ, GA, MT, MO, IN

-the 20 year average is from 1988-2008, but there is a caveat here: the three-way races in both 1992 and 1996 have caused all of these margins to go down some. If you look at the margins for these states going back to 1952, you will see considerably higher margin values for many of these states, especially the "11ers", which are charted HERE.

- the next three columns are the actual results from 2008, 2004, the "Swing" (margin difference, 2008 over 2004) and the end polling average from 2008. 

-the last three columns are very interesting, and they are the ones that fascinate statisticians from both sides: a comparison of the current polling averages to the polling from 2008, the results of the 20 year average and finally, to the 2008 GE.

First, I want to make it clear that I would personally be delighted were a ton of "red-state" polling to come in, for very obvious reasons: a healthy gene pool of a great amount of polling material allows for a much more accurate average, plus poll internals can tell us alot about how different people think in different states.

There is no doubt in my mind that Mitt Romney is going to win at least 22 of these 23 states, and probably all 23 of them.

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RED STATE ANALYSIS II:

I wrote some very direct details about many of those states in the first RED STATE REPORT, no need to rehash them here.

New stuff:

The two polls of LOUISIANA are interesting. After more than a year of not being polled, suddenly, two distinctly different-from-each-other polls of for the Pelican State came in within one day of each other, and neither pollster is very reliable.  The Southern Media and Opinion Research, from Baton Rouge, put out some polls in 2008, all for McCain, but by very differing margins. This one shows Romney ahead of Obama by +6, 45-39, which is pretty impossible for a deep red state this late in the game, for that makes 16% undecideds, which is highly unlikely. The next day, Zogby, who does very instable online polling, put out a poll of LA showing Romney up by +13.2. That makes for a margin average of Romney +9.60, which is decidedly under John McCain's massive +18.63% margin win in 2008, but just under the 2008 polling average for this state, which was McCain +10.43. In other words, McCain greatly exceeded the end-polling in this state (it was one of three where he really went beyond the end polling, alongside, WY, AR, AV and ND), and if history is our guide, then Romney is pretty sure to retain LA with a double digit margin over the President.

Even without some polling in certain firewall GOP states, we can start to estimate the states where Romney will probably win within a certain percentage-range:

Romney +40 over above:

UT, WY. Worth 9 EV.
This would be a big shift over 2008, where McCain's top state, WY, was won with a +32.25% margin.

Romney +30 to +40:

OK, ID. Worth 11 EV

Romney +20 to +30:

AL, AK, AR. Worth 18 EV. McCain won AR by +19.85% in 2008, Romney is outpacing McCain's polling from back then, so AR is likely to move into the +20 zone.

Romney +15 to +20:

LA, KY, MS,WV,  probably TX. No polling for MS or current polling for WV, but the sparse WV polling is over McCain's average from 2008. MS is next to LA. Most likely, both of those states will move into the +15 zone. TX is polling an average of 15, but this might change. TX could end up being between +10 and +15 when all is said and done. Worth 65 EV.

Romney +10 to +15:

NE, KS, SD, ND, GA. Worth 33 EV.

Romney +5 to +10:

SC, TN MO, MT, IN, AZ. Worth 55 EV.

Romney +0 to +5:

-none-

That makes for more red states in the +5 to +15 zone than in 2008, showing a decisive hardening of fronts.

But the 2 most interesting sets of statistics overall are the low numbers for TN and the still depressed margins in NE (which probably indicates similar voting behaviour in KS, due to their almost identical to each other voting and margin histories).

Here is hoping for more polling of RED STATES as election day approaches, to that we can have some more reliable statistics about Romney-territory.


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