04 October 2012

2012-10-003 National Polling Outlook

Nr.NATIONAL POLLINGDateSampleMoE
ObamaRomneyUnd/OthMar.

AVERAGE:N/AN/AN/A
48,5444,766,703,79











RECENT:







531Ipsos/Reuters03.10.121310 RV+/-3.3
4741126
530NPR / DemCorps (D) / Resurgent Republic (R)03.10.12800 LV+/-3.5
514457
529Gallup *03.10.123050 RV+/-2.0
494564
528Rasmussen03.10.121500 LV+/-3.0
494742
527United Technologies / National Journal02.10.12
+/-3.7
474760
526NBC / WSJ02.10.12832 LV+/-3.4
494653
525PPP (KOS / SEIU)02.10.121100 RV+/-2.8
494564
521Merriman Group01.10.12981 RV+/-3.1
4643113
520ARG01.10.12800 LV+/-3.6
494653
519ABC / WaPo01.10.12813 LV+/-4.0
494742
518Ipsos/Reuters01.10.121135 RV+/-3.4
4641135
517CNN / ORC01.10.12783 LV+/-3.5
504733
516UPI / CVOTER01.10.12940 A+/-4.5
494653
515Zogby (online)01.10.12800 LV+/-3.5
49,741,19,28,6
514Politico / GWU / Battleground01.10.121000 RV+/-3.1
494742
505Fox News27.09.121092 LV+/-3.0
484395


16 polls in the mix, four from 10/03.

Here IS the polling outlook for 2012-10-003: Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -0.02%

This number (Average shift since 09/14Obama -0.02) shows stability in the polling now over 18 days. There was precipitous shift downward for Obama from 09/30 through 10/02. On 10/03, the margin moved upward again.  When you compare to the beginning of the tracking on 09/14, we are almost EXACLTY where we began. In other word, one sinus curve rise, and now a sinus curve fall.

October 3rd, 2012, marked exactly 34 days until the General Election.

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