02 October 2012

Gallup: Obama Beats Romney as Better for Middle-Income Americans

Obama Beats Romney as Better for Middle-Income Americans

You need to go read it, but in two graphics, there are massive warning signs for Romney/Ryan, big, big, big warning signs:



and the same, broken down by partisan association:



According to Gallup, at this point in time, as you can see for yourself, President Obama is LEADING in the category senior citizens by +11, middle-class voters by +10 and is tied with Romney among small business owners.

How big a change is this.

Compare that to exit polling from the past elections (NYT):

Exit Polls - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times

I have compiled these numbers into one table for the Senior Vote:

            Senior            Vote
        
            D
        
            R
        
            I
        
            Margin
        
            Election            result
        
            2008
        
            47
        
            51
        
            ---
        
            R +4
        
            D +7.26
        
            2004
        
            46
        
            54
        
            ---
        
            R +9
        
            R +2.46
        
            2000
        
            51
        
            47
        
            ---
        
            D +4
        
            D +0.52
        
            1996
        
            48
        
            44
        
            8
        
            D +4
        
            D +8.52
        
            1992
        
            50
        
            38
        
            12
        
            D +12
        
            D +5.56
        
            1988
        
            49
        
            50
        
            ---
        
            R +1
        
            R +7.73
        
            1984
        
            39
        
            60
        
            ---
        
            R +21
        
            R +18.22
        
            1980
        
            35
        
            52
        
            13
        
            R + 17
        
            R +9.74
        


Once again, numbers trump propaganda. It is not so that the AARP vote has always been Republican. But in the last 8 cycles where there have been 4 Republican and 4 Democratic wins in the POPULAR VOTE, the Republicans have captured the Senior vote 5 times, the Democrats 3. 2008 was the first time where the guy who won the popular vote lost in the Senior vote. 

If an Obama +11 in the Senior vote, as Gallup currently estimates, were to hold through election day, then that would represent a 15% shift in the Senior vote toward the Democratic Party in this cycle and would produce a senior statistic like Clinton in 1992, only in 1992, Clinton was caught in a 3-man race (Bush 41, Perot).

Conversely, note that President Obama's margin among the younger voters is SMALLER than in 2008.

Here a table of the young vote, using the figures again from the NYT site, for the age group 18-29:

            Youth            Vote (18-29)
        
            D
        
            R
        
            I
        
            Margin
        
            Election            result
        
            2008
        
            66
        
            32
        
            2
        
            D +34
        
            D +7.26
        
            2004
        
            54
        
            45
        
            ---
        
            D +9
        
            R +2.46
        
            2000
        
            48
        
            46
        
            6
        
            D +2
        
            D +0.52
        
            1996
        
            53
        
            34
        
            13
        
            D +19
        
            D +8.52
        
            1992
        
            50
        
            38
        
            12
        
            D +12
        
            D +5.56
        
            1988
        
            47
        
            52
        
            ---
        
            R +5
        
            R +7.73
        
            1984
        
            40
        
            59
        
            ---
        
            R +19
        
            R +18.22
        
            1980
        
            44
        
            43
        
            13
        
            D +1
        
            R +9.74
        


As we can see, the Democratic Party has not always won the youth vote, but Obama's margin in the youth vote is the largest of any party for the last 28 years, since 2008. 


Now, there is one important caveat here: Gallup does not put an age bracket around "young adults" -that category could very well be 18-44 instead of just 18-29. I have written Gallup about this to ask for clarification. In that case, this would be an apples-to-oranges comparison and I really like my fruit well-ordered, you know.

But it is important to note that a +11 for the President, a Democratic President, in the senior vote, is a major development. Certainly this has a great deal to do with the so-called "Ryan Plan", no doubt about it.

And obviously, the clear leader in the middle-income vote, which will be the bulk of voters, will very likely win the election. Plain and simple.

Those are the numbers to date.

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