03 October 2012

CNN Latino poll, 10/02/2012






These are absolutely brutal numbers, truly brutal:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/02/rellatinoa.pdf



All Latino Respondents (Moe +/-4.0): Obama 75 / Romney 21
Margin: Obama +54

Registered voters (MoE +/-4.5): Obama 73 / Romney 22 
Margin: Obama +51

Likely voters (Moe "xxx"): Obama 70 / Romney 26 
Margin: Obama +44

Mean value between RV and LV: Obama 71,5 / Romney 24
Margin: Obama +47.5

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FLASHBACK

Compare to 2008:

GALLUP POLL, October 21, 2008:

Hispanic voters: Obama 62 / McCain 30
Margin: Obama +32


CNN exit polls, GE 2008: Obama 66 / McCain 31   
Margin: Obama +35

FOX exit polls, GE 2008:

Hispanic Women: Obama 68 / McCain 30
Margin: Obama +38

Hispanic Men: Obama 64 / McCain 33
Margin: Obama +31


Latino vote (both genders):

Obama 67 / McCain 31
Margin: Obama +36
Mean value of CNN and FOX exit polls: Obama +35.5
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Ok, what did I just do?I noted the latest CNN poll, which shows the highest Latino numbers EVER for a Democratic candidate, and I mean, EVER, with a crushing Obama +51 under Registered Voters and a crushing Obama +44 under likely voters, making for a mean value of Obama +47.5.

Now, take a look at 2008 latino polling and the exit polls:

The Gallup final Latino poll of 2008 showed: 
Obama +32
According to the exit polling therefore, Obama did between +4 to +5 better in margin than the end polling, probably the mean between an RV and an LV calculaton.

So, I took the CNN poll and made a mean value between RV and LV: Obama +47.5

47.5 - 36.5 (2008 exit polling margin, mean value between CNN and FOX) =11

That means that President Obama is currently doing 11 MARGIN points better than 2008.

Romney is going to earn a new record in history: to be the Republican candidate to score the lowest percentage of the Latino vote in American politics.

And with Latino numbers like this, I don't see how Romney can win in CO or NV. NM is already a lost cause for the GOP. You cannot be viable as a national party in national elections and get 25% or less of a 50+ million and growing voter block!

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I repeat, these are CRUSHING margins in the Latino Vote

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