14 October 2012

Bonncaruso's ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE NO. 5


Statistikhengst's Electoral Landscape No. 5:

Obama vs. Romney

October 14, 2012

Obama 281 / Romney 206 / Tossups 51 / Margin: Obama +75 EV



This is my fifth major electoral landscape prediction-output for the 2012 election.

Electoral Landscape no. 1 was on July 15, 2012, which you can see HERE.
Electoral Landscape no. 2 was on August 28, 2012, which you can see HERE.
Electoral Landscape no. 3 was on September 15, 2012, which you can see HERE.
Electoral Landscape no. 4 was on September 29, 2012, which you can see HERE .


For those who know my analyses, they know that while I am a Democrat, my electoral analyses are non-partisan and brutally fair. I simply let the numbers speak for themselves. This is a long analysis, full of data; you need to read it all to get the full picture.

There were a good number of polls in 2010-2011 as well, you can see them all HERE (national), HERE (Alabama through New Hampshire) and HERE (New Jersey through Wyoming). Though these  polls are "cold coffee", it is still good to follow the polling trail as far back as possible, to gauge the track record of pollsters.

As of 2012, I changed the format for recording polling data and moved to EXCEL. All of the polls from 2012 are in one EXCEL DOCUMENT: Presidential Polls 2012 (through 13 October 2012). That polling data is the absolute proof for the two large tables provided under the EV map.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Here the new state polls, per day, between September 30 and October 13 (127 new state polls, some specialty polls as well). The abbreviations are color-coded according to which candidate won the poll:

09/30: AZ, IA, MA, NC, OH (2), WA – 7 polls

10/01: CO, FL, IA, ME*,MD, MA, MI, NH, NM – 9 polls /*ME poll just released, but was conducted immediately following both conventions before „47“

10/02: FL, LA, MO, NV, NH, NM, NC, RI, TX, VA – 10 polls

10/03: AZ, FL, LA, MO, NC, NJ, OH, VA, WA*,WI (2), - 11 polls (* the WA poll officially came out on 10/01, according to SUSA, but just showed up on the RSS feed-reader on 10/03)

10/04: CO, CT, HI, MA, MO (2), - 6 polls (the Colorado poll, from conservative.org, was also a national poll)

10/05: FL (2), NV, OH, OH, VA (2) -8 polls

10/06: MT -1 poll

10/07: CO, CO, VA -3 polls

10/08: CO, IA, MA, MI (2), ND, OH, PA, -8 polls

10/09: CO, IN, LA, MA (2), MN, NV, NH, NC, OH, OH (2), PA -13 polls

10/10: CA, FL (2), ME, MT (2), NV (2), NH, OH (2), PA (2), RI, VA, WI - 16 polls

10/11: CA, CO, FL, IL, MA, MI (2), NV, NV, NJ, NC, OH (3), OH, PA, VA, VA, VA, WI (2) - 21 polls

10/12: CO, FL, FL, ME, MI, NH, NC, OH, SD, VA

10/13: AZ, OH - 10 polls (125 Total)

Here the raw stats on the number polls, per state:


State Polls through
2012-07-015
Polls through
2012-08-028
Polls through
2012-09-015
Polls through
2012-09-030
Polls through
2012-10-013
Alabama 1 1 1 1 1
Alaska 0 0 0 0 0
Arizona 10 11 12 15 18
Arkansas 1 1 1 2 2
California 11 14 16 19 21
Colorado 9 15 19 26 33
Connecticut 3 6 7 10 12
Delaware 0 0 0 0 0
District of Columbia 0 1 1 1 1
Florida 25 36 43 55 65
Georgia 5 6 6 8 8
Hawaii 0 0 0 0 1
Idaho 0 0 0 0 0
Illinois 1 2 5 6 7
Indiana 2 3 3 6 7
Iowa 5 7 8 14 17
Kansas 0 0 0 0 0
Kentucky 0 0 0 1 1
Louisiana 0 0 0 0 3
Maine 5 6 6 9 12
Maryland 1 1 1 3 4
Massachusetts 11 13 14 21 28
Michigan 13 21 25 33 40
Minnesota 4 5 7 9 10
Mississippi 0 0 0 0 0
Missouri 6 15 18 21 25
Montana 4 6 7 8 11
Nebraska 4 4 4 5 5
Nevada 6 10 11 18 24
New Hampshire 8 12 14 20 25
New Jersey 9 12 16 18 20
New Mexico 6 8 10 13 16
New York 11 14 15 16 16
North Carolina 17 22 28 33 40
North Dakota 2 3 3 4 5
Ohio 20 31 35 44 61
Oklahoma 1 2 2 2 2
Oregon 3 3 3 4 4
Pennsylvania 17 24 25 36 41
Rhode Island 0 0 0 0 2
South Carolina 1 1 1 1 1
South Dakota 1 2 2 3 4
Tennessee 3 3 3 4 4
Texas 4 4 5 6 7
Utah 1 1 1 1 1
Vermont 2 3 3 3 3
Virginia 22 29 32 42 52
Washington (State) 7 11 14 16 18
West Virginia 1 1 2 2 2
Wisconsin 19 30 30 38 44
Wyoming 0 0 0 0 0
Total STATE POLLS 282 400 459 597 724
National 277 400 457 512 580
National – specialty polls 14 19 20 25 33
Total – without specialty polls 558 799 912 1109 1337
Total – with specialty polls 572 818 934 1134 1304



There were 724 state polls since the beginning of 2012 up through October 13. All 1337 polls (including the national matchups) are in the EXCEL DOCUMENT: Presidential Polls 2012 (through 30 September 2012) that is also hyperlinked above.

The specialty polls (ACA, latino vote, swing state votes) are not per-se directly involved in the state calculations, but worth a look nonetheless.

As of now, the following states have not been polled at all in 2012:

Alaska, Delaware, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi and Wyoming. (6 states), Hawaii and Louisana having received polls in the time between. The other 45 „states“ have been polled. It is pretty safe to assume that these 5 unpolled states will vote in 2012 in the same direction as they did in 2008. None of them are likely to be competitive.

Most of the states that have been polled the most are logically those considered the most competitive in the GE:

Florida (65, was 55)
Ohio (61, was 44)
Virginia (51, was 42)
Wisconsin (42, was 38)
Pennsylvania (41, was 36)
North Carolina (40, was 33)
Michigan (40, was 33)
Colorado (33, was 26)
Massachusetts (28, was 21)
Missouri (25, was 21)
New Hampshire (25, was 20)
Nevada (24, was 18)
California (21, was 19)
New Jersey (20, was 18)
New York (16, was 15)
Arizona (18, was 15)
Washington State (18, was 14)
Iowa (17, was 14)

Alone from these 18 states – or 1/3 of the Union - we have received data on 575 of those 724 state polls, or 79.41% of all state polls.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Based on the polling results, which, as mentioned above, you can find all in this EXCEL DOCUMENT: Presidential Polls 2012, I come up with the following electoral landscape:


Obama 281 / Romney 206 / Tossups 51 / Margin: Obama +75 EV




To-date, there are no special predictions for the congressional districts in either ME or NE, both of which do elector-splitting.

My methodology is similar to TMP's, but not identical. I take the average of all the last polls within two weeks time, and with no repeater pollsters. Closer to election day, this time-frame will be reduced to one week, at least for the battleground states. Any average at +2% or less is pure tossup. Otherwise, I designate a prediction. I make no color distinction between states that are expected landslide states and states that are relatively close, for on election night, when the state is called, it is called, in one color, and that is that.


The distillation of the data from the EXCEL document is in two tables:

THE EVERYTHING TABLE:

Because it is so detailed, a legend:

The entire table is color coded: blue = DEM, red = GOP.

Column 1: "Rank '08" is a listing of the partisan rankings for that state based on the results of the 2008 GE and is not a predictor of that state's performance in 2012. The Obama states go from 1-29 in bolded blue, the McCain states go from 22-1 in bolded red. Think of it as an hourglass, with the narrowest of margins in the middle.

Column 2 is self-explanatory.

Column 3: lists the current EV total for each state. If that total is underlined with another number in parentheses next to it, then this state has undergone a change in EV total since the 2010 Census. Those states are: NY, MA, MD, IL, WA, MI, NJ, NV, PA, IA, OH, FL, MO, GA, AZ, TX, LA and UT (18 states).

Column 4: the exact winning percentage margin from 2008, with a link in the title to Dave Leip's uselectionatlas.org website, as proof. Here the same LINK. His site is the DEFINITIVE repository of electoral data.

Column 5: the final polling average for each state going into election day 2008. The title in this column is linked to the entire polling data I put out 11/04/08, with simple averages. Here the same LINK.

Column 6: "Diff. 1" is the difference between the actual winning margin from 2008 and the predicted margin average, based on the end polling in 2008. The closer this value comes to "0", then the closer the polling average was to reality in that year. Of the 29 states that Obama carried in 2008, he actually won with a margin ABOVE the final average in 22 of those states, and with a margin BELOW the final average in 7 states. Of the 22 states that John McCain won, he won with a margin ABOVE his average in 17 of those states and he won with a margin below the final average in 5 of those states. Therefore, we could say that the final polling averages in 2008 were "conservative" in their estimates, but there is a caveat here: anything in columns 5, 7 or 8 that is in italics indicates one single poll and NOT an average, for in that case only one poll was available. This data is important in looking at current polling data for 2012 - to compare.

Column 7 (“2012 Current PA”): is the current polling average in 2012, for which all of the polling to-date been posted as a large, tabbed, EXCEL table HERE. Again, anything in italics indicates one single poll, either because there has only been one poll of the state, or too much time has elapsed between this poll and the one or ones before. In this column, anything that is bolded as well indicates fresh polling data since the last Electoral Landscape!

Also, the current polling average is the decider of predicting how the electoral landscape looks right now. Anything below a +2 margin average means a toss-up, and those values are shaded in light green. Right now, there are three pure tossups on this map: FLORIDA, VIRGINIA and COLORADA. Anything above +2 will be designated a predicted winner. So, the numbers and only the numbers drive the electoral map presented in this electoral landscape.

Column 8 (“Diff. over 2008 PA”): is the difference between the current polling average right now in 2012, per state, and the final polling average from 2008. Though this is somewhat an "apples to oranges" comparison, it can tell us if there has been massive change in that state. And in the next electoral landscape, I will update these figures and we can see if they get closer to the 2008 averages or not.

Column 9 (“Diff. 2 - '08 Margin”) does what column six did, but this time for the current pollling averages – it pits them against the actual results from 2008.

One more note before citing examples: if the value in "Diff. 1" (Column 6) is a large number, that means that the candidate well outperformed his predicted polling average, something to consider when looking at the values for 2012 as we now go into the "hot phase" of the presidential campaigns.

My recommendation is that you first take a good look at your own state and get used to reading the numbers in this way. Once the eyes get used to this, it is easy to visualize trends in no time!


Rank '08 State EV 2012 Margin - '08 2008 Final PA Diff. 1 2012 Current PA Diff. Over 2008 PA Diff. 2 ('08 Margin)
1 DC 3 85,93 69,00 16,93 72,00 3,00 13,93
2 HI 4 45,26 36,00 9,26 32,00 -4,00 13,26
3 VT 3 37,01 27,00 10,01 37,00 10,00 0,01
4 RI 4 27,81 18,10 9,71 25,05 6,95 2,76
5 NY 29 (31) 26,86 29,00 -2,14 26,00 -3,00 0,86
6 MA 11 (12) 25,81 21,33 4,48 23,14 1,81 2,67
7 MD 10 25,44 17,30 8,14 21,37 4,07 4,07
8 IL 20 (21) 25,11 24,90 0,21 19,00 -5,90 6,11
9 DE 3 24,98 20,70 4,28 --- --- ---
10 CA 55 24,03 24,00 0,03 17,55 -6,45 6,48
11 CT 7 22,37 21,33 1,04 10,33 -11,00 12,04
12 ME 4 17,32 17,15 0,17 11,50 -5,65 5,82
13 WA 12 (11) 17,08 14,60 2,48 15,45 0,85 1,63
14 MI 17 (16) 16,44 14,44 2,00 5,64 -8,80 10,80
15 OR 7 16,35 15,57 0,78 9,00 -6,57 7,35
16 NJ 15 (14) 15,53 16,00 -0,47 14,00 -2,00 1,53
17 NM 5 15,13 9,26 5,87 9,33 0,07 5,80
18 WI 10 13,90 11,34 2,56 5,35 -5,99 8,55
19 NV 6 (5) 12,49 6,83 5,66 2,23 -4,60 10,26
20 PA 20 (21) 10,31 7,30 3,01 5,57 -1,73 4,74
21 MN 10 10,24 12,00 -1,76 10,00 -2,00 0,24
22 NH 4 9,61 10,43 -0,82 2,38 -8,05 7,23
23 IA 6 (7) 9,53 12,75 -3,22 3,16 -9,59 6,37
24 CO 9 8,95 6,62 2,33 0,59 7,21 8,36
-- USA 538 7,26 7,54 -0,28 0,69 8,23 6,57
25 VA 13 6,30 4,93 1,37 0,70 -4,23 5,60
26 OH 18 (20) 4,58 2,30 2,28 2,50 0,20 2,08
27 FL 29 (27) 2,81 1,79 1,02 1,18 2,97 1,63
11-A NE-02* 1* 1,21 4,00 -2,79 1,00 -3,00 0,21
28 IN 11 1,03 1,18 -0,15 14,00 12,82 -12,97
29 NC 15 0,33 0,62 -0,29 2,28 2,90 2,61









Rank '08 State EV 2012 Margin - '08 2008 Final PA Diff. 1 2012 Current PA Diff. Over 2008 PA Diff. 2 ('08 Margin)
22 MO 10 (11) 0,13 0,46 -0,33 5,70 5,24 -5,57
21 MT 3 2,38 1,64 0,74 9,67 8,03 -7,29
20 GA 16 (15) 5,20 3,85 1,35 13,50 9,65 -8,30
19 SD 3 8,41 7,50 0,91 10,50 3,00 -2,09
18 AZ 11 (10) 8,48 4,43 4,05 3,67 -0,76 4,81
17 ND 3 8,65 1,34 7,31 14,00 12,66 -5,35
16 SC 8 8,98 12,55 -3,57 6,00 -6,55 2,98
15 TX 38 (34) 11,76 13,00 -1,24 15,00 2,00 -3,24
14 WV 5 13,09 7,66 5,43 14,00 6,34 -0,91
13 MS 6 13,17 10,50 2,67 --- --- ---
12 KS 6 14,92 17,00 -2,08 --- --- ---
11 NE* 5 14,93 19,00 -4,07 11,00 -8,00 3,93
10 TN 11 15,06 14,00 1,06 7,00 -7,00 8,06
9 KY 8 16,22 12,40 3,82 14,00 1,60 2,22
8 LA 8 (9) 18,63 10,43 8,20 14,07 3,64 4,56
7 AR 6 19,85 10,75 9,10 21,00 10,25 -1,15
6 AK 3 21,54 14,58 6,96 --- ---- ---
5 AL 9 21,58 19,33 2,25 15,00 -4,33 6,58
4 ID 4 25,30 23,00 2,30 --- --- ---
3 UT 6 (5) 28,02 24,00 4,02 42,00 18,00 -13,98
2 OK 7 31,29 30,15 1,14 30,00 -0,15 1,29
1 WY 3 32,24 23,00 9,24 --- --- ---

Two examples of extreme stability, as interpreted from the table:

Oklahoma:

McCain won this state by +31.29% in 2008, it was number 2 in the conservative rankings. The polling average for Oklahoma was +30.15%, so McCain did just +1.14 better than the polls. That is a very low difference. This year doesn't look much different. There have only been two polls of Oklahoma, called "The Sooner Poll". The first one showed Romney at +35, the last one shows him with +30. Too much time has elapsed between the two to make an honest average, so all that remains in the one poll value of +30.00, which is in italics, and only 0.15% less than the average from 2008. Oklahoma was the most stabile state of 2008 on the Republican side vis-a-vis the 2004 results and it looks very much like a repeat performance will happen again in this year.

New York:

President Obama won the Empire State by +26.86% in 2008, but the polling there was somewhat inflated: the end average had him at +29.00, so technically, he underperformed there by -2.14 points. However, just as in the case of Oklahoma, a predicted +26.00 is such a crushing margin that two points makes no difference in the outcome. Right now, the current polling average in NY is +26.00, almost identical to the actual margin from 2008. It remains to be seen if the president will continue to improve this average as the election nears, or not.

So, both states, when you measure them against the averages from 2008 at the end, show absolutely no erosion for their respective sides. That is not the case in all states.

THE BATTLEGROUND TABLE:


The Battleground Table is a reduction of the EVERYTHING TABLE, but ordered in the same hourglass formation, only for the battlegrounds and near-battlegrounds, according to current polling margin and not according to past partisan ranking. What is shaded in dark GREY is an absolute tossup. What is shaded in light GREY is a battleground, but not a mathematical tossup according to my standards, the same standards I used in 2004 and 2008. Anything not shaded is outside the battlegrounds but close enough to be pulled into the battlegrounds, depending on which candidate starts to have more movement toward or against him.

A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 13.12.10 12.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 6 5,70 5,70 0,00 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 5,24 5,57
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 1 / 3 3,67 7,20 -3,53 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 -0,76 -4,81
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 6 2,28 2,28 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 2,90 2,61
FL 29 5,39% 0 / 8 1,18 1,18 0,00 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 2,97 3,99
CO 9 1,67% 0 / 8 0,59 0,59 0,00 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 7,21 9,54
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 4 / 16 0,69 0,50 0,19 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -6,85 -6,57
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
VA 13 2,42% 0 / 10 0,70 0,70 0,00 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -4,23 -5,60
NV 6 1,12% 0 / 7 2,23 2,23 0,00 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -4,60 -10,26
NH 4 0,74% 0 / 4 2,38 2,38 0,00 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -8,05 -7,23
OH 18 3,35% 1 / 13 2,50 2,68 -0,18 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 0,20 -2,08
IA 6 1,12% 0 / 5 3,16 3,16 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -9,59 -6,37
WI 10 1,86% 0 / 6 5,35 5,35 0,00 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -5,99 -8,55
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 7 5,57 5,57 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -1,73 -4,74
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 6 5,64 5,64 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -8,80 -10,80

"Column E" is the column to keep your eye on the most.


What to make of this and the current polling data?

First, at the national level, we are seeing the Governor Romney has changed the national map. His win in Debate no. 1 cannot be denied and the shift in the national polling, confirmed by the changes in the Battleground States, confirms this. Here the current national data:


Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
46,56 47,25 6,19 +0,69











RECENT:

















580 Investors Business Daily / TIPP 13.10.12 837 LV +/-3.5
46 46 8 0
579 Gallup (LV Screen) 13.10.12 3050 RV +/-2.0
47 49 4 -2
578 Gallup (RV Screen) 13.10.12 3214 RV +/-2.0
49 46 5 3
577 Rasmussen 13.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
576 Angus Reid 12.10.12 906 RV +/-3.5
46 46 8 0
575 Ipsos/Reuters 12.10.12 1081 LV +/-3.4
45 46 9 -1
570 UPI / CVOTER 11.10.12 1110 LV +/-4.5
46 49 5 -3
569 Monmouth 11.10.12 1360 LV +/-2.7
46 47 7 -1
563 Fox News 10.10.12 1204 RV +/-3.0
45 46 9 -1
561 YouGov 10.10.12 1000 A +/-5.0
49 46 5 3
555 Investors Business Daily / TIPP 09.10.12 797 LV +/-3.5
45 47 8 -2
553 Zogby / Jzanalytics / Washington Times 09.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
45 45 10 0
552 ARG 09.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
47 48 5 -1
551 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 09.10.12 1300 RV +/-2.7
47 49 4 -2
547 Pew Research 08.10.12 1112 LV +/-4.0
45 49 6 -4
544 Politico / GWU 08.10.12 1000 RV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1











In previous Electoral Landscapes, I wrote very long descriptions of each of the battlegrounds, but since the nightly battleground reports have become so deep and intensive, if you want to see the up-and-up on the battlegrounds in nitty gritty-detail, here is a table to links to all the battleground reports to-date. Just click on a day you want to see and look for a battleground state of your choice:

T-Minus
DAY
Date
From 2008
Other from 2008
Other from 2012
42
Tuesday
---


41
Wednesday
---

40
Thursday


39
Friday


38
Saturday
none


37
Sunday

36
Monday

35
Tuesday

34
Wednesday


33
Thursday

32
Friday

31
Saturday
none

30
Sunday
29
Monday


28
Tuesday


27
Wednesday

26
Thursday


25
Friday


24
Saturday



A quick summary: because of Governor Romney's gains, North Carolina is looking more and more as if it could move away from the Battleground States. A number of states that were looking good for Obama just two weeks ago are looking shaky: VIRGINIA, NEVADA, NEW HAMPSHIRE. Plus, Governor Romney pulled FLORIDA, COLORADO and NORTH CAROLINA "over the line" into red-territory, abeit tossup/battleground.

The one state that, regardless of shifts, is continuing to show a sometimes larger, sometimes smaller but very resilient lead for the President is OHIO.

Notice that ARIZONA has moved into the Battlegrounds and MISSOURI is just outside of the Battlegrounds, as are WISCONSIN, PENNSYLVANIA and MICHIGAN.

There has been a considerable amount of polling coming in from decidedly partisan pollsters, all of a sudden, quasi at the last minute, without any kind of baseline from the past to compare their performance to. The vast majority of these pollsters are Republican leaning. I mentioned this phenomenon in the last two battleground reports.

FACIT: a lot of things can and will happen until election day, but right now the race is wide open. If movement continues for Governor Romney, he can win, and he can win decisively. But Obama's „firewall“ is statistically and realiistically larger than Romney's. Romney, even with a miniscule lead in the national polling, is still trailing in enough battleground states so that Obama has the smaller leap to get above 270 EV. No doubt, the second debate coming up on Tuesday, October 16, will be intensely watched from all sides. And doubt doubt we will see a plethora of polling following Presidential Debate No. 2.

ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE NO. 6 is slated for Monday, October 22nd and will be published on Tuesday, October 23rd.

The Final ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE, NO. 7, is slated for Monday, November 5th and will be published before noon on Tuesday, November 6th.

Coming in the next week: 

-exact top-and-bottom-line percentage calculations, at least for the battlegrounds, based on a specific formula, the same one I used in 2008.

-Change in the polling time-window from two-weeks down to one week, at least for battleground states that receive a bevy of polls. In this case, common sense must reign.


No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.