22 October 2012

Battleground/National Report 10/21/2012 - T-minus 16 days - DELUXE VERSIO


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 10/21/2012: T-minus 16 days - DELUXE VERSION (Week-at-a-Glance)






Sunday, October 21st, 2012, was exactly 16 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Flashback to 2008: here is the battleground report for 18 days before the GE, from 10/19/2008.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/21/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked. 

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:

A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 21.10.12 20.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
MO 10 1,86% 1 / 4 10,20 11,60 -1,40 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 9,74 10,07
MT 3 0,56% 0 / 5 9,40 9,40 0,00 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 7,76 7,02
GA 16 2,97% 0 / 2 8,00 8,00 0,00 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 4,15 2,80
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 2 3,50 3,50 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 -0,93 -4,98
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 5 2,40 2,40 0,00 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -2,53 -3,90
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 5 2,00 2,00 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 2,62 2,33
FL 29 5,39% 1 / 9 0,11 0,11 0,00 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 1,90 2,92
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
NH 4 0,74% 0 / 3 0,00 0,00 0,00 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 10,43 9,61
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 5 / 13 0,19 0,35 0,54 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 7,73 7,45
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 0 / 6 1,55 1,55 0,00 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,07 -7,40
OH 18 3,35% 1 / 7 1,71 2,00 -0,29 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 -0,59 -2,87
IA 6 1,12% 1 / 5 3,16 2,76 0,40 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -9,59 -6,37
WI 10 1,86% 0 / 5 3,20 3,20 0,00 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -8,14 -10,70
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 5 3,60 3,60 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -3,70 -6,71
NV 6 1,12% 0 / 5 5,20 5,20 0,00 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -1,63 -7,29
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 7,00 7,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -8,57 -9,35
MI 16 2,97% 1 / 4 7,18 6,68 0,50 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -7,26 -9,26



----------------------------------------------------------------
There were only 5 polls on 10/21: FL, IA, MI, MO, OH – 5 polls (105 to date since the last Electoral Landscape). It was a light polling day.

PPP (D) put out three polls on Sunday, one apeice for Florida, Iowa and Missouri.
Angus Reid put out two polls on Sunday, one for Michigan and one for Ohio.

In Missouri, which is not really a battleground state anymore, PPP shows that race at Romney +6, exactly where it was when the last PPP poll of the Show Me State came out, on 10/03. If we assume that Missouri would follow the national flow to the Left or the Right, then +6 for Romney over the +0.13 with which McCain won in 2008 would pretty well track with the national numbers. Only, Missouri itself was 7.39 points to the Right in 2008 when McCain won the state, but Obama won the GE. Right now, with such wild circumstances surrounding the Senatorial race between incumbent Claire McCaskill (D) and her challenger, Todd Akin (R), it is anyone's guess as to the actual margin that Romney will have after the election, but it looks very sure that he will win the state. The overall margin has moved down to Romney +10.20, which is still a landslide margin.

In Florida, the latest PPP (D) shows exactly the same margin as the last PPP, with both toplines inching up 1% apiece. Since this PPP replaces the last one, the margin stay put at Romney +0.11. I warned in the Battleground Report that there will be  a lot of propaganda going on in the next days like "I hear Obama is pulling his ads out of Florida" -or- "Romney is not even making a play for Dade County" - don't believe any of this. For 29 delicious electoral votes, both sides are going to fight down to the wire and both will be working  on GOTV.

In Iowa, a new PPP (D), this time sponsored by a pro-Obama pac, came out with a mirror result to the poll it just released on 10/19: Obama +1, as opposed to Romney +1 on 10/19. This snapped the Iowa statistic back to Obama +3.16, right where it was before 10/19. In the poll summary, Dean Debnam reminded that the Obama lead is being generated by a 65/35 lead among early voters, just as is the case in Ohio. This means that even in the close states, the lean leads can become even more resilient. In 2008, Obama was holding a +0.4 lead in North Carolina, and on election night, he won the Tarheel State by +0.29. So, there is something to said for really watching the statistics and the averages.


Ohio received another poll showing an absolute tie, 48/48, this time from Angus Reid. This makes two absolute ties within 2 days, a sure sign that the race could become a nail biter. But as Debnam reminded in his PPP Ohio poll from 10/20, which showed Obama +1, Obama is swamping in the early vote, 66/34. Other polls are not breaking down their internals according to early voters vis-a-vis those who will vote on election day. And Obama surpassed his end polling in Ohio 2008. That being said, for the first time this year, Ohio moves statistically into the tossups, now showing and average of Obama +1.71. I expect that a great many polls for Ohio will come in in the next days. And it is certain that both teams will visit Ohio probably more than any other state before election day. On Tuesday, after the Debate from Monday night, both Obama and Biden will be campaigning in Dayton, OH, which is part of Montgomery County, which is one of the two most critical swing counties in the Buckeye State, Stark County (Canton) being the Ohio.

Michigan also received an Angus Reid poll  (LV) showing a very healthy Obama +9 lead over Romney, which moved the statistical average for the Wolverine State up to Obama +7.18, which is actually a tick above the last polling for Oregon, which shows Obama +7. No one is even talking about Oregon being a battleground, and so logically, it would be that Michigan will probably also be leaving the battlegrounds soon.

The big numbers for Obama in Michigan, and also the non-battleground numbers for a lot of states over the last five days, shows that though Romney is closing the gap in the national numbers, there is no GOP wave showing in DEM core states: NJ is closing in on Obama +15, right where he was in 2008. Michigan is at half of his margin from 2008, but a +7 is a solid win. Likewise Oregon. Washington State, Connecticut and Maine are all at +11.50 - +11.60 for the President, all below their margins from 2008, but all landslide margins nonetheless. If Romney is to win, he will need to tip the majority of the remaining battlegrounds. If we are to assume that he will pick-up North Carolina (and a +2.00 margin average is no guarantee of this at all), then Romney has a solid 206 EV. He will need to pick up 64 EV from the battleground states. It can be done, but there is no doubt that his climb, no matter how you slice it, is steeper than Obama's. It looks very much as if Nevada is no longer within Romney's reach, but he could pick up CO. That brings him to 215, maybe.

But Obama is no longer at 270, either. Only, he must garner less EV in order to get there.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

And now: THE DELUXE VERSION, the entire week at a glance:

A B C E E E E E E E K
State EV % of EC 15.10.12 16.10.12 17.10.12 18.10.12 19.10.12 20.10.12 21.10.12 Shift
IN 11 2,04% 14,00 13,67 13,67 13,67 13,67 13,67 13,67 -0,33
NE 5 0,93% 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 0,00
MO 10 1,86% 6,50 8,93 8,93 8,93 11,60 11,60 10,20 3,70
MT 3 0,56% 9,67 9,67 9,40 9,40 9,40 9,40 9,40 -0,27
GA 16 2,97% 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 0,00
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 3,67 3,50 3,50 3,50 3,50 3,50 3,50 -0,17
VA 13 2,42% 0,40 0,71 2,14 2,00 2,60 2,40 2,40 2,00
NC 15 2,79% 2,62 1,25 1,25 2,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 4,62
FL 29 5,39% 1,33 1,38 1,86 1,86 0,38 0,11 0,11 -1,22
NE-02 1 0,19% 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 --
NH 4 0,74% 2,38 0,50 1,00 1,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 2,38
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 0,24 0,09 0,27 0,04 0,44 0,35 0,19 -0,05
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 0,15 0,46 0,88 1,55 1,55 1,55 1,55 1,40
OH 18 3,35% 2,50 2,12 2,03 3,25 3,20 2,00 1,71 -0,79
IA 6 1,12% 1,00 2,20 2,20 3,70 2,76 2,76 3,16 2,16
WI 10 1,86% 5,35 3,25 3,00 3,67 3,25 3,20 3,20 -2,15
PA 20 3,72% 4,43 4,67 4,67 3,60 3,60 3,60 3,60 -0,83
NV 6 1,12% 2,23 1,80 2,83 2,83 5,20 5,20 5,20 2,97
OR 7 1,30% 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 7,00 7,00 7,00 -2,00
MI 16 2,97% 5,64 5,29 5,29 6,68 6,68 6,68 7,18 1,54
MN 10 1,86% 7,00 7,33 7,33 8,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 1,00
NM 5 0,93% 9,58 9,58 9,58 9,58 9,58 9,58 9,58 0,00



We can clearly see that come states have jumped into the tossups, others have jumped out, and some have jumped out of the battlegrounds entirely.
------------------------------------------------------------------------



The National Numbers:

Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
46,91 47,10 5,99 0,19











RECENT:

















615 NBC / WSJ 21.10.12 816 LV +/-3.43
47 47 6 0
614 Investors Business Daily / TIPP - daily tracking 21.10.12 938 LV +/-3.5
47,9 42,2 9,9 5,7
613 PPP (D) / AUC – daily tracking 21.10.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
48 48 4 0
612 Gallup (LV Screen) - daily tracking 21.10.12 2700 LV +/-2.0
45 52 3 -7
611 Rasmussen - daily tracking 21.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
47 49 4 -2
610 UPI / CVOTER 20.10.12 1478 LV +/-4.5
46 48 6 -2
608 Ipsos/Reuters - daily tracking 20.10.12 1356 LV +/-3.0
46 45 9 1
605 Gravis (R) 19.10.12 805 LV +/-3.4
44 46 10 -2
604 U Conn / Hartford Courant 19.10.12 1023 LV +/-3.0
48 45 7 3
593 YouGov 17.10.12 1000 A +/-4.9
47 46 7 1
594 ARG 15.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
593 Politico / GWU 15.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1


There were 5 polls from 12 pollsters on 10/20. All national poll results on the gene-pool are LV.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-021: Romney +0.19 (+0.54 shift -or- -0.54 shift)

Here was  the polling outlook for 2012-10-020Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -4.00% / Romney +4.00%


For the eleventh day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.



The Gallup LV results are radically different than the rest of the polling universe. Nate Silver at 538 has a good write-up about why this may be. This is a good, solid read and backs up a claim I have been making about Gallup for more than 2 years now: that their end predictions have often been way, way, way off the mark.

October 21st, 2012 
marked exactly 16 days until the General Election.

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