21 October 2012

Battleground/National Report 10/20/2012 - T-minus 17 days


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 10/20/2012: T-minus 17 days







Saturday, October 20th, 2012, was exactly 17 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Flashback to 2008: here is the battleground report for 18 days before the GE, from 10/18/2008.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/20/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked. 

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 20.10.12 19.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 2 3,50 3,50 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 -0,93 -4,98
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 5 2,40 2,60 -0,20 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -2,53 -3,90
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 5 2,00 2,00 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 2,62 2,33
FL 29 5,39% 1 / 9 0,11 0,38 -0,27 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 1,90 2,92
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
NH 4 0,74% 0 / 3 0,00 0,00 0,00 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 10,43 9,61
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 5 / 13 0,35 0,44 -0,09 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -7,19 -6,91
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 0 / 6 1,55 1,55 0,00 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,07 -7,40
IA 6 1,12% 0 / 5 2,76 2,76 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -9,99 -6,77
OH 18 3,35% 2 / 6 2,00 3,20 -1,20 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 -0,30 -2,58
WI 10 1,86% 1 / 5 3,20 3,25 -0,05 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -8,14 -10,70
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 5 3,60 3,60 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -3,70 -6,71
NV 6 1,12% 0 / 5 5,20 5,20 0,00 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -1,63 -7,29
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 4 6,68 6,68 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -7,76 -9,76


----------------------------------------------------------------
There were only 6 polls, 5 of which were from 4 battleground states on 10/20: FL, NJ, OH, OH, VA, WI (100 to date since the last Electoral Landscape). It was a light polling day.


In all cases, including the national average, the margin shrunk, on both sides. This is a pretty typical contraction in the sinus curve that happens before a period of polling instability, something that Nate Silver also noted on his blog on Sunday.


The averages for Virginia and Florida moved down to Romney +2.40 and Romney +0.11, respectively. Florida is a true tossop and already starting to evoke memories of 2000. There will be a lot of propaganda about this in the next days, but rest assured, both sides will be working furiously on both early voting and on GTVO (Get The Vote Out) on election day.

Wisconsin moved down in average by only -0.05%, which is generally nothing more than statistical noise. The average for the Badger state now stands at Obama +3.20.



Ohio got two polls, both good and bad news for Obama, but not exactly where people think they are seeing it. The Gravis (R) poll showing an absolute tie is good news for Obama, for the latest Gravis polls before this one showed Romney ahead. Also, Gravis appears to have suddenly moved from topline and margin predictions down to 1/10th of a percent to rounding to the next 1%.

However, the PPP (D) poll, now showing Obama +1, shows that Romney has gained strength. Ohio is tightening up, but Romney's problem is that Obama is swamping him in the early voting, to the tune of 66-34,with 21% of all Ohio ballots aleady in. If Obama maintains this kind of margin in the early voting over the next ten days, then there will simply not be enough Republicans who will come out to vote on November 6th to make up the difference. These early voting numbers are much, much, much more strongly pro-Obama in 2012 than they were in 2008 at this same juncture in time. More than one month ago, Romney pulled his advertising out of Ohio and I wrote then that the main mistake he made was that he lost time, something you never get back again. When you look at the Ohio numbers for Republicans in the past, you have to go back to 1996 to find a Republican who had such consistently low numbers in the Buckeye State as Romney has had. To date:


Nr. OHIO Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE N/A N/A N/A 47,67 45,67 6,67 2,00




















67 Gravis (R) 20.10.12 1943 LV +/-2.2 47 47 6 0
66 PPP (D) 20.10.12 552 LV +/-4.3 49 48 3 1
65 Fox News 19.10.12 1131 LV +/-3.0 46 43 11 3
64 Rasmussen 18.10.12 750 LV +/-4.0 49 48 3 1
63 SUSA 17.10.12 613 LV +/-4.0 45 42 13 3
62 YouGov 16.10.12 851 LV +/-4.8 50 46 4 4
61 PPP (D) 13.10.12 880 LV +/-3.3 51 46 3 5
60 NewsmaxZogby Swing States (OH) 11.12.12 834 LV +/-3.4 45 44 11 1
59 Pulse (R) / Let Freedom Ring (Tea Party) 11.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.0 47 46 7 1
58 Rasmussen 11.10.12 750 LV +/-4.5 48 47 5 1
57 NewsmaxZogby Swing States (OH) 11.10.12 848 LV +/-3.4 45 44 11 1
56 Gravis (R) 11.10.12 1313 LV +/-2.7 45,1 45,9 9 -0,8
55 NBC / WSJ / Marist 10.10.12 994 LV +/-3.3 51 45 4 6
54 NewsmaxZogby Swing States (OH) 10.10.12 842 LV +/-3.4 46 42 12 4
53 SUSA 09.10.12 808 LV +/-3.5 45 44 11 1
52 CNN/ORC 09.10.12 722 LV +/-3.5 51 47 2 4
51 ARG 09.10.12 600 LV +/-4.0 47 48 5 -1
50 Wenzel (R) / Citizens United 08.10.12 1072 LV +/-2.96 47,3 48 4,7 -0,7
49 Rasmussen 05.10.12 500 LV +/-4.5 50 49 1 1
48 WAA (R) 05.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0 46 47 7 -1
47 NBC / WSJ / Marist 03.10.12 931 LV +/-3.2 51 43 6 8
46 PPP (D) 30.09.12 897 LV +/-3.3 49 45 6 4
45 Columbus Dispatch 30.09.12 1662 LV +/-2.2 51 42 7 9
44 PPP (D) / NRDC 28.09.12 2890 LV +/-1.8 50 44 6 6
43 Quinnipiac / CBS /NYT 26.09.12 1162 LV +/-3.0 53 43 4 10
42 Gravis (R) 25.09.12 549 LV +/-4.3 45,20 44,30 2,30 0,90
41 WAPO 25.09.12 759 LV +/-4.5 52 44 4 8
40 ONO / U Cincy 23.09.12 861 LV +/-3.3 51 46 3 5
39 Purple Strategies 21.09.12 600 LV +/-4.0 48 44 8 4
38 YouGov 20.09.12 1036 LV +/-3.3 47 44 9 3
37 Secure America Now (R) 20.09.12 600 LV +/-4.0 46,90 43,80 9,30 3,10
36 Fox 19.09.12 1009 LV +/-3.1 49 42 9 7
35 NBC / WSJ / Marist 13.09.12 979 LV +/-3.1 50 43 7 7
34 ARG 13.09.12 600 LV +/-4.0 48 47 5 1
36 Rasmussen 13.09.12 500 LV +/-4.5 47 46 7 1
35 Gravis (R) 10.09.12 1548 LV +/-3.0 47,27 43,19 9,54 4,08
34 PPP (D) 09.09.12 1072 LV +/-3.0 50 45 5 5
33 Gravis (R) 05.09.12 1381 RV +/-2.9 43,70 46,80 9,50 -3,10
32 Gravis (R) 29.08.12 1397 ? +/-3.1 45,27 44,39 10,34 0,88
31 Columbus Dispatch 26.08.12 1730 LV +/-2.1 45 45 10 0
30 Univ. of Cincinnatti 23.08.12 847 LV +/-3.4 49 46 5 3
29 Quinnipiac / CBS / NYT 23.08.12 1253 LV +/-2.8 50 44 6 6
28 Purple Strategies 15.08.12 600 LV +/-4.0 44 46 10 -2
27 PPP (D) 14.08.12 961 LV +/-3.2 48 45 7 3
26 Rasmussen 14.08.12 500 LV +/-4.5 45 45 10 0
25 Quinnipiac / CBS /NYT 01.08.12 1193 LV +/-2.8 50 44 6 6
24 Magellan (R) 28.07.12 597 RV +/-4.1 45,10 42,60 2,30 2,50
23 WAA (R) 27.07.12 1115 LV +/-3.0 47,84 40,20 12,06 7,64
22 Rasmussen 19.07.12 500 LV +/-4.5 47 45 8 2
21 Purple Strategies 16.07.12 600 LV +/-4.0 48 45 8 3
20 Priorities USA (D) 11.07.12 805 LV +/-3.7 49 41 10 8
19 Quinnipiac 27.06.12 1237 RV +/-2.8 47 38 15 9
18 PPP (D) 26.06.12 673 LV +/-3.8 47 44 9 3
17 Purple Strategies 07.06.12 600 LV +/-2.5 45 48 7 -3
16 Rasmussen 31.05.12 500 LV +/-4.5 44 46 10 -2
15 Marist 24.05.12 1103 RV +/-3.0 48 42 10 6
14 Quinnipiac 10.05.12 1069 RV +/-3.0 45 44 11 1
13 PPP (D) 08.05.12 875 LV +/-3.3 50 43 7 7
12 Quinnipiac 03.05.12 1130 RV +/-2.9 44 42 14 2
11 Purple Strategies 25.04.12 600 LV +/-4.1 49 44 7 5
10 Rasmussen 20.04.12 500 LV +/-4.5 46 42 12 4
9 Fox News 19.04.12 606 RV +/-4.0 45 39 16 6
8 Rasmussen 28.03.12 500 LV +/-4.5 48 40 12 8
7 Quinnipiac 28.03.12 1246 RV +/-2.8 47 41 12 6
6 CNN/ORC 05.03.12 546 LV +/-2.5




5 Marist 04.03.12 3079 RV +/-1.8 50 38 12 12
4 Fox 16.02.12 505 RV +/-4.5 38 42 20 -4
3 Quinnipiac 15.02.12 1421 RV +/-4.2 44 42 14 2
2 Rasmussen 09.02.12 500 LV +/-4.5 45 41 14 4
1 GSSG (R) 19.01.12 500 LV +/-4.38 39,6 46,8
-7,2












Of 72 polls to-date in Ohio, Obama has won 63 polls, there were 2 absolute ties, and Romney has won 7 polls, 4 of those 7 before July. Romney's wins have come all from Republican pollsters. Not once in a Rasmussen poll has Romney won an Ohio poll. These are, in total, the poorest numbers for a Republican in the Buckeye state since either 1976 or 1964. In the averages, Romney has not gone above 46% even once.  Of course, a wave could happen and Romney could suddenly take the lead, but even now just over 2 weeks until the election, we are seeing no signs of this happening. Rasmussen has showed Obama +1 for the last four polls in a row, and knowing Rasmussen's 4-point-to-the-right mathematical bias, proven in 2008, 2010 and 2011,then those RAS polls could very well mean Obama +5, if history is our guide. When you see the sea of bolded blue on this table, you can see that Obama really has had the upper hand in Ohio the entire time.  Even if it comes down to the wire, the President now has a built-in structural advantage here due to early voting, but obviously, he is taking nothing for granted. On Tuesday morning, after the final debate on Monday night, Obama will be campaigning in Dayton, OH - in Montgomery County, which is one of the two major bellwether counties in Ohio (Montgomery, Stark). I expect that we will see both Obamas, both Bidens and maybe even both Clintons in Ohio in the next two weeks. It would not surprise me were Hilary to suddenly appear at a major campaign stop in Cincinnatti, for instance. Right now, the average is Obama +2.00, the lowest average he has had the entire time. Ohio is sitting right on the ledge to the tossups. I am sure that a plethora of Ohio polls will come in this week, just oodles of them. These numbers look an awful lot like 2004, in reverse colors, only this time around, the challenger (Romney) has won far less polls than Kerry won in 2004.

The candidate who has won both Ohio and Nevada has always won the GE in the last century. Right now, President Obama is still ahead in both.-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Non-Battleground polling:


Four days ago, I mentioned a "Neighborhood Report" (R) poll from New Jersey that showed a much, much smaller winning margin for Obama than all other polls, namely, Obama +5.7, and under the 50 mark. Two days ago, SUSA released a poll showing Obama +14 in the Garden State, pretty much right at the margin with which he won the state in 2008. Yesterday, Stockton College released a poll, showing Obama +15. Once again, evidence that the Neighborhood Report poll was a deliberate outlier. The current average in New Jersey is Obama +11.13, but without the outlier poll, it would be: Obama +12.20.
The National Numbers:

Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
47,12 46,77 6,11 0,35











RECENT:

















610 UPI / CVOTER 20.10.12 1478 LV +/-4.5
46 48 6 -2
609 Investors Business Daily / TIPP - daily tracking 20.10.12 938 LV +/-3.5
46,6 44 9,4 2,6
608 Ipsos/Reuters - daily tracking 20.10.12 1356 LV +/-3.0
46 45 9 1
607 Gallup (LV Screen) - daily tracking 20.10.12 2700 LV +/-2.0
45 51 4 -6
606 Rasmussen - daily tracking 20.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
605 Gravis (R) 19.10.12 805 LV +/-3.4
44 46 10 -2
604 U Conn / Hartford Courant 19.10.12 1023 LV +/-3.0
48 45 7 3
601 PPP (D) / AUC – daily tracking 19.10.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
49 47 4 2
593 YouGov 17.10.12 1000 A +/-4.9
47 46 7 1
594 ARG 15.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
593 Politico / GWU 15.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1
587 ABC / WaPo 14.10.12 923 LV +/-3.5
49 46 5 3
586 Zogby / Jzanalytics / Newsmax 14.10.12 863 LV +/-3.4
47 44 9 3


There were 5 polls from 13 pollsters on 10/20. All national poll results on the gene-pool are LV.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-020: Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.46% / Romney +3.46%


For the tenth day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.


In the next days, we will surely see the statistical effects of Presidential Debate No. 2, one way or the other.

The Gallup LV results are radically different than the rest of the polling universe. Nate Silver at 538 has a good write-up about why this may be. This is a good, solid read and backs up a claim I have been making about Gallup for more than 2 years now: that their end predictions have often been way, way, way off the mark.

October 20th, 2012 
marked exactly 17 days until the General Election.

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