20 October 2012

Battleground/National Report 10/19/2012 - T-minus 18 days


BATTLEGROUND REPORT 10/19/2012: T-minus 18 days






Friday, October 19th, 2012, was exactly 18 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Flashback to 2008: here is the battleground report for 18 days before the GE, from 10/17/2008.

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/19/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked. 

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 19.10.12 18.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 2 3,50 3,50 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 -0,93 -4,98
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 5 2,60 2,00 0,60 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -2,33 -3,70
NC 15 2,79% 2 / 5 2,00 2,00 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 2,62 2,33
FL 29 5,39% 5 / 8 0,38 1,86 -1,48 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 2,17 3,19
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
NH 4 0,74% 1 / 3 0,00 1,00 -1,00 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 10,43 9,61
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 7 / 13 0,44 0,04 0,48 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -7,10 -6,82
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 0 / 6 1,55 1,55 0,00 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,07 -7,40
IA 6 1,12% 1 / 5 2,76 3,70 -0,94 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -9,99 -6,77
OH 18 3,35% 1 / 5 3,20 3,25 -0,05 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 0,90 -1,38
WI 10 1,86% 1 / 4 3,25 3,67 -0,42 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -8,09 -10,65
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 5 3,60 3,60 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -3,70 -6,71
NV 6 1,12% 1 / 5 5,20 2,83 2,37 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -1,63 -7,29
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 4 6,68 6,68 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -7,76 -9,76


There were 19 polls from 14 states on 10/19: CA, DC, FL (2), FL (3), IA, MO, NV, NH, NJ, NC, NC, OH, OR, UT, VA, WI –  (94 to date since the last Electoral Landscape)

8 states from the current Battleground List were polled:  3 moved more  toward Obama, 5 moved more toward Romney.

Foreward: I received an incredibly nasty, profanity-laced email from a Tea-Partier out of Pennsylvania who wanted to excoriate me because he thought I calculated the one-week time window for the battlegrounds incorrectly. He meant to me that a time window is from a certain day of the week to that day in the next week, which is wrong. That would be EIGHT days, not seven. So, for instance, if anyone is in doubt, use your fingers and count backwards 7 days, including the day of the battleground report: 19-18-17-16-15-14-13. So, for instance, the earliest poll in a current one-week calculation ending with October 19th cannot be before October 13th, in this case. I sent this foul individual a very nice email pointing this out, but only got a second profanity-laced email back.Surely there are friendly conservatives out their, who are welcome to email me...

Though I am still recording stats for Missouri, it is not on the current battleground list. At a current average of Romney +11.60, it is in no way a true battleground state.

The average for Virginia has moved to Romney +2.60, which moves the Old Dominion just outside of the tossups. Please remember that a massive Romney +11 outlier from a Republican pollster is currently in the statistic. It will fall out of the statistic on 10/25. This will probably make a big change in the look of Virginia. Without that poll in the statistic, the average for 10/19 would be Romney +0.50.

However, in spite of two new polls and others cycling out of the average, North Carolina stayed put at Romney +2.00, just hanging on to the ledge to the tossups.

10/19/2012 could be named "Florida Day", for five polls came in for Florida all on this day. And the results are very divergent, ranging from Obama +5 to Romney +6 and lots of +1s in between. Facit: Romney has lost considerable ground here, the average is now Romney +0.38. Anyone who thinks that either Romney or Obama has "locked-up" the Sunshine State is fooling himself. This could very well go down to the wire for the third largest electoral prize (alongside NY) in the nation, after CA and TX.


New Hampshire is currently an absolute mathematical tie, at +0.00. But the pooling gene pool is weak, with only three polls in the current one-week mix.

Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin all lost somewhat on margin average and now currently stand at Obama +2.76, +3.20 and +3.25, respectively. A PPP poll showed Romney up +1 in Iowa, but all other polling in Ohio and Wisconsin has Obama ahead, just by a leaner margin average as more polls were added to the mix.  It is interesting to note that when Romney hit the 50 mark in the latest Virginia poll, Rasmussen noted it in its report. But when Obama hit the 50 mark in Ohio two weeks ago, Rasmussen made no note of this, in spite of the fact that it is the first "50" value for any Democratic Presidential candidate in RAS' polling of Ohio since its inception in 2003.

Nevada made huge gains and now stands at Obama +5.20, which technically moves it just outside of the battleground zone.  However, it was a partisan Democratic Pollster, Mellman, which shows an Obama +8, coupled with the Grove (D) poll from 10/18, which showed Obama +7, which made a difference. That being said, Obama is ahead in every poll  in the current mix and Romney has not been ahead in Nevada since 10/11.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Non-Battleground polling:


Utah received a poll which shows Romney +53, a massive, massive margin, exactly as I suspected would be the case. The poll was a project done by poli-sci students at Utah State University. I have been predicting for months now that Romney is likely to set a Republican electoral record in UT and surpass Reagan's +52.20% winning margin from 1980. However, Governor Romney is unlikely to set an all-time record for all parties in Utah, for that would require him to surpass William Jennings Bryan's massive Democratic winning margin of +65.43% from 1896.

Likewise, the 2nd poll of DC shows Obama +80, which is no surprise. There was a first poll, in August, that most people missed, from WTOP/Heart and Mind polling, because it was piggybacked on a NOVA (North Virginia) poll. The poll was very strange as it only produced results for one-half of a state and could therefore not be used for anything.

Just yesterday, I wrote:

"What truly amazes me is that no one seems very interested in polling either Oregon or South Carolina, both of which should be safe states for their respective side, both of which show single-digit margins in the case of a wave for the opposing side. Now, every time I have written in a Battleground Report that a certain state is coming up short in the polling, a poll for that state  has appeared in the next days, so cross your fingers and let's see what happens in the next days..."

...and voila (chuckle, chuckle), a SUSA poll came in for Oregon, showing Obama +7. That seems like a lean value, but in context of the history of this state, is a value that means SAFE DEM.

Three days ago, I mentioned a "Neighborhood Report" (R) poll from New Jersey that shows a much, much smaller winning margin for Obama than all other polls. Yesterday, SUSA released a poll showing Obama +14 in the Garden State, pretty much right at the margin with which he won the state in 2008.

A Reason/Rupe (Libertarian oriented) poll came in for California, showing Obama +15. This is also probably a clue that Reason will be putting out a national poll soon. Currently, the average in California is Obama +17.28, decidedly under his +24.03% win in 2008, but two of the four polls in the current gene pool of CA were taken immediately following Debate no. 1. and released on 10/10 and 10/11. California is not a competitive state, and therefore the polling-window stays at 2-weeks.



The National Numbers:

Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
47,12 46,68 6,21 0,44











RECENT:

















605 Gravis (R) 19.10.12 805 LV +/-3.4
44 46 10 -2
604 U Conn / Hartford Courant 19.10.12 1023 LV +/-3.0
48 45 7 3
603 Investors Business Daily / TIPP - daily tracking 19.10.12 1059 RV +/-3.5
46,5 44,8 8,7 1,7
602 Ipsos/Reuters - daily tracking 19.10.12 1356 LV +/-3.0
46 43 11 3
601 PPP (D) / AUC – daily tracking 19.10.12 1200 LV +/-2.8
49 47 4 2
600 Gallup (LV Screen) - daily tracking 19.10.12 3050 RV +/-2.0
45 51 4 -6
599 Rasmussen - daily tracking 19.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
48 48 4 0
593 YouGov 17.10.12 1000 A +/-4.9
47 46 7 1
595 UPI / CVOTER 15.10.12 1478 LV +/-4.5
46 49 5 -3
594 ARG 15.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
593 Politico / GWU 15.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1
587 ABC / WaPo 14.10.12 923 LV +/-3.5
49 46 5 3
586 Zogby / Jzanalytics / Newsmax 14.10.12 863 LV +/-3.4
47 44 9 3



There were 7 polls from 13 pollsters on 10/19. All national poll results on the gene-pool are LV.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-019: Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.37% / Romney +3.37%


For the tenth day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.


In the next days, we will surely see the statistical effects of Presidential Debate No. 2, one way or the other.

The Gallup LV results are radically different than the rest of the polling universe. Nate Silver at 538 has a good write-up about why this may be. This is a good, solid read and backs up a claim I have been making about Gallup for more than 2 years now: that their end predictions have often been way, way, way off the mark.

October 19th, 2012 
marked exactly 18 days until the General Election.


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