18 October 2012

Battleground/National Report 10/17/2012 - T-minus 20 days


Wednesday, October 17th, 2012, was exactly 20 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Flashback to 2008: There was no battleground report published 20 days before the election, as I was preparing a "Poll Convergence", which came out the next day, but here is the Battleground report from 22 days before the GE 2008, from 10/13/2008.   

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/17/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked. (The EXCEL document was updated 10/18, 08:00 EST for 3 other polls that I missed).

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:

A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 17.10.12 16.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
IN 11 2,04% 0 / 3 13,67 13,67 0,00 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 12,49 14,70
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 10 11,00 11,00 0,00 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -8,00 -3,93
MT 3 0,56% 2 / 5 9,40 9,67 -0,27 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 7,76 7,02
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 3 8,93 8,93 0,00 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 8,47 8,80
GA 16 2,97% 0 / 2 8,00 8,00 0,00 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 4,15 2,80
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 2 3,50 3,50 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 -0,93 -4,98
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 7 2,14 0,71 2,85 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -2,79 -4,16
FL 29 5,39% 1 / 7 1,86 1,38 0,48 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 3,65 4,67
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 4 1,25 1,25 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 1,87 1,58
NH 4 0,74% 1 / 3 1,00 0,50 1,50 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 11,43 10,61
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 6 / 13 0,27 0,09 0,18 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -7,27 -6,99
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 1 / 6 0,88 0,46 0,42 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -5,74 -8,07
OH 18 3,35% 1 / 7 2,03 2,12 -0,09 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 -0,27 -2,55
IA 6 1,12% 2 / 4 2,20 2,20 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -10,55 -7,33
NV 6 1,12% 3 / 6 2,83 1,80 1,03 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -4,00 -9,66
WI 10 1,86% 1 / 4 3,00 3,25 -0,25 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -8,34 -10,90
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 9 4,67 4,67 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -2,63 -5,64
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 6 5,29 5,29 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -9,15 -11,15
MN 10 1,86% 0 / 3 7,33 7,33 0,00 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -4,01 -2,91
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 9,00 9,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -6,57 -7,35
NM 5 0,93% 0 / 4 9,58 9,58 0,00 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 0,32 -5,55


There were 13 polls on 10/17: CO, CT, FL, MA, MT (2), NV (2), NH, NJ, VA, WA, WI
Update, 10/18, 08:00 EST, for 10/17: 16 polls total - CO, CT, FL, MA, MT (2), NV (3), NH, NJ, OH, VA, WA (2), WI – 16 polls (61 to date since the last Electoral Landscape)


Having been released only one day after the 2nd presidential debate, none of these results are yet from respondents questioned following the debate.

There were 2 wild outlier polls (mathematically speaking): In Virginia, a Republican firm called Kimball is claiming that it is Romney +11 in the Old Dominion. This is the second time that a Republican firm has suddenly put out a value that is so radically different than all others, and within 7 days. The McLaughlin (R) poll, which is also the ONLY poll to show Allen in front of Kaine in the VA senatorial race, showed Romney +7. A variance of 2-3 points in percentage to other pollsters is understandable, but to have a poll that is  +10 over the average is not possible. Kimball is claiming to use the Gallup party identification for VA to come up with his results. This is more than highly unlikely, unless you assign 100% of the vote to "your" party and decide that your party is sweeping the independent vote. I will also note that in 2010, Gallup's party identification stats nationally cause them to be off the final mark by a whopping 9.6 points. Yes, you heard it. On the day before the mid-terms in 2012, Gallup predicted a Republican national sweep of +15. On election night, it was GOP +5.7. This was a truly embarrassing moment for Gallup, one for which Gallup has until this day never offered an explanation.

We saw a similar case to this in Florida in August, 2012, when Foster-McCollum-Baydoun put out a FL poll claiming Romney +14.58%, where all other polls around that poll were showing mostly a +1 race for the one or the other candidate. This artifically shifted the statitistic, when then normalized when the poll fell out of the statistic. The same thing will happen here, but for now, the average in Virginia has moved to Romney +2.14, which is outside of the tossups, but deep within the battlegrounds. If people think that Romney is locking down this state on the basis of one massive outlier poll, then they are fooling themselves. VA, OH, FL and NC are going to be the four big battlegrounds, just as they have been most of the year.

Speaking of Florida, a Zogby poll came in on Wednesday, showing Obama +3. But because other polls fell out of the one-week window, the average actually moved up to Romney +1.86.

Two polls came in for Montana in one day, ever so slightly moving the margin down to Romney +9.40.

New Hampshire has crossed the line over to an average of Romney +1.00, but be careful: since I moved to the one week window, there are currently only three polls in the mix. That is a very small pooling gene poll and this average my shift again, very soon. The latest Rasmussen poll, which is the newest of the three, actually shows an improvement for Obama over the last RAS, moving from an absolute tie to Obama +1.

Ohio received one poll, from SUSA, but it is worth the read, showing Obama +3. It was released late on 10/17, at least according to my RSS-feed-reader. The polling was completed just hours before the debate in NY on Tuesday, so, as with the other polls here, the results are unrelated to the debate. From SUSA:


"In an election for President of the United States in Ohio today, 10/16/12, Barack Obama edges Mitt Romney 45% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, Obama is flat at 45%, Romney is down 2 points, from 44% to 42%.

Obama's entire advantage comes from those Ohioans who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Among early voters, Obama leads 57% to 38%. Among Ohioans who are likely to vote, but who have not yet done so, the contest is tied, 43% to 43%. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads by the 3 points reported here. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, women are stable, but Obama picks up a couple of points among men. The gender gap today is 13 points. Both Obama and Romney lost support among Independents week-on-week. Romney declined 3 points, from 44% to 41%. Obama declined 2 points, from 35% to 33%. Obama gained ground week-on-week among middle-income voters. In greater Columbus, the contest is absolutely unchanged: 47% to 41% Obama last week; 47% to 41% Obama this week."


I will remind that SUSA was very close to Obama's margin in Ohio in 2008, but CNN absolutely nailed it in that year. SUSA is one of the few pollsters that neither side wants to label as biased, so watching the next SUSA poll, post Debate no. 2 - could be very instructive.

Some polls fell out of the Ohio statistic, which is not at an average of Obama +2.03, right on the edge of the tossups. But there is a caveat here: 4 polls from 10/11, which will definitely fall out at the next juncture, are all +1 (3 for Obama, 1 for Romney), which will cause this average to automatically rise, and possible considerably.

One Marquette poll came in for Wisconsin, but the poll is actually quite old: it was taken between October 8-10, and just released on October 17. Even at the height of the Romney surge following Debate 1, it still shows Obama +1, but this is massive, and I mean, massive erosion over previous Marquette polls. This moves the average down to Obama +3.00. Of the Wisconsin polls, 4 of the last five have him at the 50 mark or above.

Two states on the Obama side improved their statistic with new polls: Colorado and Nevada moved up to Obama +0.88 and Obama +2.83, respectively. This means that Nevada has moved out of the tossups and into the Obama battleground zone.

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In non-battleground polling, a wild outlier poll from a Republican firm came in for New Jersey. The poll is from Neighborhood Research (R), headed by ultra-conservative Rick Shaftan. The poll was commissioned by the extreme-Right-Wing PAC "Americans for Prosperity". The poll shows Obama under 50% - in NEW JERSEY, mind you - and with only +5.8 over Romney. Obama won New Jersey by +15 in 2008 and most polls have him between +14 and +17. In fact, the value that shows the most for NJ is +14. Why is a Republican firm doing this? Well, this is exactly like Glen Bolger's polls of ME and MN, which I disussed in the battleground reports on 10/16 and 10/13: this is a feint. It is an attempt to make the Democratic Party think this state is in play, when in reality, it is not. They do this in the hope that the Democrats will divert resources to New Jersey, which means they would need to pull resources out of other, more critical states. But of course, the DEMS aren't taking the bait.

Polls also came in for Connecticut, Massachusetts and Washington State, which you can read in the EXCEL TABLE, linked above.

----------------------------------------------------------

National Numbers:


Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
46,98 47,25 5,76 0,27











RECENT:

















593 YouGov 17.10.12 1000 A +/-4.9
47 46 7 1
592 Investors Business Daily / TIPP 17.10.12 1059 RV +/-3.5
46,8 45,3 7,9 1,5
591 Ipsos/Reuters 17.10.12 1141 LV +/-3.3
47 44 9 3
590 Gallup (LV Screen) 17.10.12 3050 RV +/-2.0
45 51 4 -6
588 Rasmussen 17.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
596 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 16.10.12 1600 LV +/-2.5
46 50 4 -4
595 UPI / CVOTER 15.10.12 1478 LV +/-4.5
46 49 5 -3
594 ARG 15.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
593 Politico / GWU 15.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1
587 ABC / WaPo 14.10.12 923 LV +/-3.5
49 46 5 3
586 Zogby / Jzanalytics / Newsmax 14.10.12 863 LV +/-3.4
47 44 9 3
576 Angus Reid 12.10.12 906 RV +/-3.5
46 46 8 0
569 Monmouth 11.10.12 1360 LV +/-2.7
46 47 7 -1


There were 5 polls from 13 pollsters on 10/17. As promised, I have now, exactly one week later, moved over to only the LV screen for Gallup.

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.99% / Romney +3.99%


For the last five days, regardless of whom has lead in the national average, it has been a statistical and near purely mathematical tie. No polling organization can get even cloe to a MoE of +/-0.27!


In the next days, we will surely see the statistical effects of Presidential Debate No. 2, one way or the other.

October 17th, 2012 
marked exactly 20 days until the General Election.



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