17 October 2012

Battleground/National Report 10/16/2012 - T-minus 21 days


Tuesday, October 16th, 2012, was exactly 21 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

It was also the day of the 2nd Presidential Debate between President Barack Obama (D) and his challenger, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R), in Hempstead, New York.

Flashback to 2008: There was no battleground report published 21 days before the election, as I was preparing a "Poll Convergence", which came out 3 days later, but here is the Battleground report from 22 days before the GE 2008, from 10/13/2008.   

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/16/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:

A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 16.10.12 15.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
IN 11 2,04% 1 / 3 13,67 14,00 -0,33 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 12,49 14,70
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 10 11,00 11,00 0,00 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -8,00 -3,93
MT 3 0,56% 0 / 3 9,67 9,67 0,00 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 8,03 7,29
MO 10 1,86% 1 / 3 8,93 6,50 2,43 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 8,47 8,80
GA 16 2,97% 1 / 2 8,00 8,00 0,00 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 4,15 2,80
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 1 / 2 3,50 3,67 -0,17 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 -0,93 -4,98
FL 29 5,39% 1 / 8 1,38 1,33 0,05 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 3,17 4,19
NC 15 2,79% 1 / 4 1,25 2,62 -1,37 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 1,87 1,58
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 7 0,71 0,40 1,11 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -4,22 -5,59
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 6 / 15 0,09 0,24 -0,15 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -7,45 -7,17
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 2 / 5 0,46 0,15 0,31 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -6,16 -8,49
NH 4 0,74% 1 / 4 0,50 2,38 -1,88 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -9,93 -9,11
NV 6 1,12% 1 / 5 1,80 2,23 -0,43 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -5,03 -10,69
OH 18 3,35% 1 / 10 2,12 2,50 -0,38 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 -0,18 -2,46
IA 6 1,12% 2 / 4 2,20 1,00 1,20 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -10,55 -7,33
WI 10 1,86% 1 / 4 3,25 5,35 -2,10 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -8,09 -10,65
PA 20 3,72% 2 / 9 4,67 4,43 0,24 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -2,63 -5,64
MI 16 2,97% 1 / 6 5,29 5,64 -0,35 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -9,15 -11,15
MN 10 1,86% 1 / 3 7,33 7,00 0,33 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -4,01 -2,91
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 9,00 9,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -6,57 -7,35
NM 5 0,93% 0 / 4 9,58 9,58 0,00 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 0,32 -5,55


Three big things happened on October 16, 2012:

1.) the 2nd presidential debate happened, but of course no polling values from that debate are represented in this table.

2.) I moved the time-frame for polling averages, as announced in the last Electoral Convergence, from a two-week time window to a one-week time window for all of the competitive states. This is exactly the same mode I used in 2008, starting exactly three weeks before the election, with the same logic, namely, that the rate of polling for the most competitive states will go drastically up in the next three weeks. The recalculation begins as soon as a state is polled. This is important to remember. All of the battleground states from +5 and below received polls on 10/16, therefore, they were all recalculated with just a one-week time window.

3.) Speaking of polls coming in, 10/16 was a record day: 33 polls came in, 25 of them from YouGov:  AZ, CA, CO, CO, CT, FL, GA, IL, IN (2), IA (2), MD, MA (2), MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NJ (2), NY, NC, OH, PA (2), TN, TX, VA, WA (2), WI – 33 polls

Because of the recalculation, many states look closer than before, but not that much closer. The exact changes:

-there are currently now 6 statistical tossup-states, the highest amount in a long, long time:

-Virginia has moved "over the line" from an average of Obama +0.40 on 10/15 to Romney +0.71 on 10/16. That is still about as tossupy as it can get.

-North Carolina actually moved away from Romney and closer to the line, from Romney +2.62 on 10/15 to Romney +1.25 on 10/16.

So did Arizona, which ticked slightly down, from Romney +3.67 on 10/15 to Romney +3.50 on 10/16, using the same calculation as for all the other states. Notice that Romney's current standing in Arizona is between Obama's standing in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania at this time.

-However, Florida moved just a tick farther away from the tossups, from  Romney +1.33 on 10/15 to Romney +1.38 on 10/16.

-Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada all moved into the tossups, with those states at Obama +0.46, +0.50 and +1.80, respectively.

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania both slipped under the +5 boundary and are both therefore in the Battlegrounds, at Obama +3.25 and +4.67, respectively.

Iowa moved away from the tossups, back into the battlegrounds and is now at Obama +2.20.

Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. The Buckeye State, in spite of the recalculation to a one-week window, is still slightly outside of the tossups, at Obama +2.12.

One of the most critical details about all of these states, on both sides, is that even in the leaner states, the winning candidate is coming over the 50 mark most every time. Instead of pointing out every detail, with so many polls that came in, I recommend that you go to the EXCEL link above and see it for yourself. Here is the link once more: EXCEL table for 10/16/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS.

About the YouGov polls: they are a relatively new phenomenon: the polls you are seeing here are  "callback" polls, which means that the respondents who answered the September polls were called-back by YouGov (online) to respond again in October. The response rate was fairly high and more importantly, the results every single poll of the 25 released look very much in-line with other pollsters for each individual state, including the obvious non-battleground states, like Texas. There was no even one single state where the YouGov results looked like an outlier compared to the rest of the data already if for each respective state.  There are more YouGov polls to come in the next day or two, surely. I noticed that YouGov polling for NH, NM, NE, just to name a few, was not yet present. I think they put out 32 polls in September, which means there should be 7 more to go. The advantage to this type of polling is that you measure a real difference between voter tendencies in one month to the next - with the same essential group of people. And the results are that pretty much an equal amount of polls showed a slight margin increase for Romney as did for Obama. One state stayed absolutely put: Minnesota.

When you crunch the margin shifts from September to October for YouGov, then it looks like this:

Romney +6: Indiana

Romney +3: Missouri, Illinois, Virginia
Romney +2: Colorado, Texas, Nevada, Pennsylvania
Romney +1: Tennessee, Iowa, Georgia, Florida
+/-0: Minnesota, Michigan
Obama +1: Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, North Carolina, Connecticut, Arizona
Obama +2: California, New York
Obama +3: Massachusetts, Washington
Obama +4: Wisconsin

The DailyKos polling wrap also crunched this data

In other words, when you compare the respective margins from these YouGov polls to the September results, then the widest leap for Romney in margin was made in Indiana, the widest leap in margin for Obama was made in Wisconsin. But in 18 states, the margin shift was +2 or less. That is pretty darned stabile, especially for such a topsy turvy election cycle like this one.

It usually takes 2 to 3 days to measure the effect of a presidential debate, so I expect a lot of polls to come in on Thursday. Until then, the statistics probably remain in a small holding pattern until then.

National Polling:


Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
46,95 47,05 6,00 0,09











RECENT:

















592 Investors Business Daily / TIPP 16.10.12 1059 RV +/-3.5
47,3 45,7 7 1,6
591 Ipsos/Reuters 16.10.12 1846 LV +/-2.6
46 43 11 3
590 Gallup (LV Screen) 16.10.12 3050 RV +/-2.0
46 50 4 -4
589 Gallup (RV Screen) 16.10.12 3214 RV +/-2.0
47 47 6 0
588 Rasmussen 16.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
47 49 4 -2
596 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 16.10.12 1600 LV +/-2.5
46 50 4 -4
595 UPI / CVOTER 15.10.12 1478 LV +/-4.5
46 49 5 -3
594 ARG 15.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
593 Politico / GWU 15.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1
587 ABC / WaPo 14.10.12 923 LV +/-3.5
49 46 5 3
586 Zogby / Jzanalytics / Newsmax 14.10.12 863 LV +/-3.4
47 44 9 3
576 Angus Reid 12.10.12 906 RV +/-3.5
46 46 8 0
569 Monmouth 11.10.12 1360 LV +/-2.7
46 47 7 -1
563 Fox News 10.10.12 1204 RV +/-3.0
45 46 9 -1
561 YouGov 10.10.12 1000 A +/-5.0
49 46 5 3




There were 6 polls from 5 pollsters on 10/16 (Gallup has already been explained). 

The margin has flip-flopped, and Mitt Romney has again taken the lead from President Obama, who just took the lead from him on 10/15, but the margin is so unbelievably small, well, flip a coin at this stage...

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.59% / Romney +3.59%


For the last five days, regardless of whom has lead in the national average, it has been a statistical and near purely mathematical tie. No polling organization can get even cloe to a MoE of +/-0.09!


In the next days, we will surely see the statistical effects of Presidential Debate No. 2, one way or the other.

October 16th, 2012 
marked exactly 21 days until the General Election.


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