16 October 2012

Battleground/National Report 10/15/2012 - T-minus 22 days


Monday, October 15th, 2012, was exactly 22 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Flashback to 2008: Here is the BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 22 days before the GE 2008, from 10/13/2008.   

Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/15/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:

A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 15,10,12 14.10.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
IN 11 2,04% 0 / 2 14,00 14,00 0,00 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 12,82 15,03
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 10 11,00 11,00 0,00 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -8,00 -3,93
MT 3 0,56% 0 / 3 9,67 9,67 0,00 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 8,03 7,29
GA 16 2,97% 0 / 2 8,00 8,00 0,00 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 4,15 2,80
MO 10 1,86% 1 / 4 6,50 5,70 0,80 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 6,04 6,37
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 0 / 3 3,67 3,67 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 -0,76 -4,81
NC 15 2,79% 0 / 6 2,62 2,62 0,00 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 3,24 2,95
FL 29 5,39% 1 / 9 1,33 1,16 0,17 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 3,12 4,14
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 0 / 18 0,24 0,24 0,00 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -7,30 -7,02
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 0 / 9 0,15 0,15 0,30 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -6,47 -8,80
VA 13 2,42% 1 / 10 0,40 0,70 -0,30 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -4,53 -5,90
IA 6 1,12% 1 / 2 1,00 3,16 -2,16 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -11,75 -8,53
NV 6 1,12% 0 / 7 2,23 2,23 0,00 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -4,60 -10,26
NH 4 0,74% 0 / 4 2,38 2,38 0,00 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -8,05 -7,23
OH 18 3,35% 0 / 13 2,50 2,50 0,00 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 0,20 -2,08
PA 20 3,72% 2 / 7 4,43 5,57 -1,14 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -2,87 -5,88
WI 10 1,86% 0 / 6 5,35 5,35 0,00 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -5,99 -8,55
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 6 5,64 5,64 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -8,80 -10,80
MN 10 1,86% 1 / 2 7,00 10,00 -3,00 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -4,34 -3,24
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 9,00 9,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -6,57 -7,35
NM 5 0,93% 0 / 4 9,58 9,58 0,00 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 0,32 -5,55

There were eight polls total on 10/15, seven of them for six battleground states: FL, ID, IA, MN, MO, PA (2), VA. 5 of those polls are from established and respected pollsters. 2 of them are hyper-partisan and statistical noise, and this is easy to prove.

Gravis (R) confirmed a rise for Governor Romney in Florida (Romney +1): it is a shift of 1.6 since the last Gravis. This moved the statistic from Romney +1.16 to Romney +1.33, still tossup pure.

ARG also released a poll for Virginia, showing Romney +1 in The Old Dominion. This moved the statistic from tossup Obama +0.70 on 10/15 to tossup Obama +0.40 on 10/15, just about as close to an absolute tie as it can get.

In Iowa, which had not been polled in one entire week, an ARG poll came in showing an absolute tie, 48 /48. Because all but one of the other polls fell out of the statistics, that leaves only the Rasmussen from 10/08 (Obama +2) in the polling gene pool, and the average of all of two polls in such an important battleground state is: Obama +1.00. Therefore, Iowa has now moved into the tossups. I am pretty sure that a slew of polls will come in for Iowa following Tuesday night's debate.

Two polls came in for Pennsylvania: PPP (D) showing Obama +7 and at 51%, while a Muhlenberg poll showing Obama +4 and under the 50 mark. Between those two new polls and the cycling out of older polls, the margin has moved downward to Obama +4.43, which is in the battleground zone. One a side-note, at this time 4 years ago, Muhlenberg was producing nightly rolling-poll (3 day cycle) results. For some reason, they are not doing it this year. Obama outperformed his 2008 polling average and the last Muhlenberg was 4 points under Obama's actual win.

Two statistical noise polls:

In Missouri, a Wenzel (R) poll, for the Todd Akin Campaign (R) came in, showing Romney +13.8. This replaces the last Wenzel poll from exactly one week ago, which showed Romney +10. Why is this poll statistical noise? Well, it is actually being conducted to gauge the McCaskill vs. Akin Senatorial race, in which all other pollsters show McCaskill winning, but Wenzel, who polls mostly for World Net Daily, which is a "Birther" news-site, has Akin ahead and by a margin outside it's margin of error. Plus, all other polls of Missouri for the last 21 days have shown between Romney +3 -- Romney +6. A Romney +13.8 is a clear outlier. Wenzel is obviously trying to change the narrative of the Senate race, and in doing so, is inflating the Presidential numbers for Romney. But as promised, I include all polls, so the Missouri average has moved to Romney +6.50.

In Minnesota, a new poll, from Glen Bolger's NMB (R) and paid for by an ultra-conservative Super-PAC called the "America Future Fund", shows the race at Obama +4, with Obama only at 47%. This poll appears to come on the heels of the last PPP (D), which showed Obama +10, but it really doesn't. Bolger was sneaky here: the NMB poll was conducted on 10/7-10/8, more than one week ago, but the results were not opened to the general public until 10/15. The PPP poll was conducted on 10/5 to 10/8, but released immediately the next day. 

Why did Glen Bolger wait an entire week to produce his "findings"? He did it because the Republican Party is engaging in a "feint" here. It is producing a result that is designed to tempt the Democratic Party into sinking funds into an absolutely solid DEM state, therefore having to divert funds from other, more critical states. This is the same polling company that just released very strange data for Maine (another very solid DEM state), which I mentioned in the Battleground Report from 10/12. But of course, the Democratic Party is not taking the bait. 

And again I will remind: Minnesota is a 9-for-9 Democratic state. It has voted for the Democratic candidate every time in a row since 1976. And if you go back to 1960, it is a 12-for-12 Democratic state, having only gone for Nixon in his 1972 landslide re-election. More importantly, since 1936 it has not turned-out an incumbent: FDR (1936, 1940,1944), Truman (1948), Johnson (1964), Carter (1980) and Clinton (1996). In fact, while Carter was losing nationally by 9.74 points to Reagan, he still won Minnesota, he still won Minnesota by +3.94 points in a three-way election, where John Anderson also took much of the Carter vote: notice that Carter's margin is the same margin that Bolger is claiming for Obama in an election where the national numbers currently point to a near tie. Since the other Minnesota polls are long out of the statistic, this moves the margin down to Obama +7.00. I am absolutely sure that Obama will win Minnesota, and most likely, with the same solid double-digit margin he won last time.

If you go to the Bolger Report and read the findings, you can see how partisan it is, just from the choice of words. And I remind again, these unserious pollsters do this stuff for a while before the election, but not directly before. Why? So they can have plausible deniablity and claim "well, at the time, it really, really looked that that state was competitive for Mr. So and So"...

Oh, and that ultra-conservative Super-PAC? Here is what its website looks like:



Idaho, finally:

In the state of Idaho, which had not been polled even once to this point in time, a Mason-Dixon / Idaho Statesman poll came in showing a crushing Romney +36 in the Gem State. This is absolutely expected and a far better margin that McCain had in 2008. It is also very in line with the one and only UTAH poll from 2012. Utah, Wyoming and Idaho tend to hug each other very closely in presidential margins and tend to be stairstep states in the partisan rankings. It will not surprise me if the Partisan ranking for 2012 end up being: 

1.) Utah
2.) Idaho
3). Wyoming
4.) Oklahoma

As the top four conservative states.






National Polling:


Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
47,26 47,04 5,70 0,22











RECENT:

















595 UPI / CVOTER 15.10.12 1478 LV +/-4.5
46 49 5 -3
594 ARG 15.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
593 Politico / GWU 15.10.12 1000 LV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1
592 Investors Business Daily / TIPP 15.10.12 989 RV +/-3.5
46,9 46,6 6,5 0,3
591 Ipsos/Reuters 15.10.12 1684 LV +/-2.6
47 45 8 2
590 Gallup (LV Screen) 15.10.12 3050 RV +/-2.0
47 49 4 -2
589 Gallup (RV Screen) 15.10.12 3214 RV +/-2.0
48 46 6 2
588 Rasmussen 15.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
48 49 3 -1
587 ABC / WaPo 14.10.12 923 LV +/-3.5
49 46 5 3
586 Zogby / Jzanalytics / Newsmax 14.10.12 863 LV +/-3.4
47 44 9 3
576 Angus Reid 12.10.12 906 RV +/-3.5
46 46 8 0
569 Monmouth 11.10.12 1360 LV +/-2.7
46 47 7 -1
563 Fox News 10.10.12 1204 RV +/-3.0
45 46 9 -1
561 YouGov 10.10.12 1000 A +/-5.0
49 46 5 3
551 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 09.10.12 1300 RV +/-2.7
47 49 4 -2



There were 8 polls from 7 pollsters on 10/15 (Gallup has already been explained). So, 10/15 is more than 1/2 of the national polling gene pool. Generally, a lot of national polls come in on Tuesdays, so I expect that a number of polls will be cycled out on 10/16.

President Obama has retaken the lead from Mitt Romney, but it is just as razor-thin as Romney's leads were for the 4 days where Romney lead in the averages:

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -3.59% / Romney +3.59%


For the last five days, regardless of whom has lead in the national average, it has been a statistical and near purely mathematical tie. No polling organization can get even cloe to a MoE of +/-0.24!


Surely, Obama supporters are hoping for a strong debate performance on Tuesday, 10/16, while Romney supporters are hoping for the the opposite. Either way, the numbers will first really show around Thursday or Friday of this week.

October 16th, 2012 
marked exactly 22 days until the General Election.




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