15 October 2012

Battleground/National Report 10/14/2012 - T-minus 23 days, DELUXE VERSION


Sunday, October 14th, 2012, was exactly 23 days before the General Election on November 6, 2012.

Flashback to 2008: Here is the BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 23 days before the GE 2008, from 10/12/2008. There was also a special National Tracking update  and also updated Voter Registration Statistics Report for four states on 10/12/2008.


Complete polling results for all states for 2012 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/14/2012 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

The BATTLEGROUND REPORTS started to run with the national numbers as well on 10/05. Here is the NATIONAL POLLING OUTLOOK thread, with links to every day going back to September 13, 2012. Want to see the numbers for a specific day? Go to that link.

The LEGEND for the following EXCEL table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the table:


A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 14.10.12 13.12.10 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
IN 11 2,04% 0 / 2 14,00 14,00 0,00 -1,03 20,68 21,71 1,18 12,82 15,03
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 10 11,00 11,00 0,00 14,93 33,22 18,29 19,00 -8,00 -3,93
MT 3 0,56% 0 / 3 9,67 9,67 0,00 2,38 20,50 18,12 1,64 8,03 7,29
GA 16 2,97% 0 / 2 8,00 13,50 -5,50 5,20 16,60 11,40 3,85 4,15 2,80
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 6 5,70 5,70 0,00 0,13 7,20 7,07 0,46 5,24 5,57
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 1 / 3 3,67 3,67 0,00 8,48 10,47 1,99 4,43 -0,76 -4,81
NC 15 2,79% 1 / 6 2,62 2,28 0,34 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 3,24 2,95
FL 29 5,39% 1 / 9 1,16 1,18 -0,02 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 2,95 3,97
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,21 21,69 20,48 4,00 -4,00 -1,21
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 7 / 18 0,24 0,69 -0,45 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -7,30 -7,02
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 1 / 9 0,15 0,59 0,74 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -6,47 -8,80
VA 13 2,42% 0 / 10 0,70 0,70 0,00 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -4,23 -5,60
NV 6 1,12% 0 / 7 2,23 2,23 0,00 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -4,60 -10,26
NH 4 0,74% 0 / 4 2,38 2,38 0,00 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -8,05 -7,23
OH 18 3,35% 0 / 13 2,50 2,50 0,00 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 0,20 -2,08
IA 6 1,12% 0 / 5 3,16 3,16 0,00 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -9,59 -6,37
WI 10 1,86% 0 / 6 5,35 5,35 0,00 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -5,99 -8,55
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 7 5,57 5,57 0,00 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -1,73 -4,74
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 6 5,64 5,64 0,00 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -8,80 -10,80
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 9,00 9,00 0,00 16,35 4,16 12,19 15,57 -6,57 -7,35
NM 5 0,93% 1 / 4 9,58 9,33 0,25 15,13 0,79 15,92 9,26 0,32 -5,55
MN 10 1,86% 0 / 1 10,00 10,00 0,00 10,24 3,48 6,76 11,34 -1,34 -0,24


There were five polls on 10/14: CO, FL, GA, NM, NC

On top of that, there was one poll for 10/13, the day of Electoral Landscape No. 5, where I did the missives on the states a little differently: AZ

PPP (D) confirmed a rise for Governor Romney in both North Carolina (Romney +2) and Florida (Romney +1): both polls are definite shifts toward the Governor since the last respective PPP polls. In Florida, that barely budged the statistic, because no polls fell out of the statistic. In fact, the average dropped an insignificant 0.02%, now at Romney +1.16 - tossup pure. In North Carolina, the average rose to Romney +2.62.

In Colorado, one poll shows a rebound for the President, but it is important since it came from Gravis (R), now showing the President at +2.4. The last Gravis, from a week earlier, showed Romney +3.5, a 5.9 shift toward the President from this partisan pollster. This moves Colorado back over the line to the Obama side, with a statistically insignificant Obama +0.15. However, that means a 0.74 shift to get there. Surely, lots of polling will come in for Colorado this week following Debate no. 2.

Two states on the outer edges of the tabe received one poll a piece: in New Mexico, yet another poll, the Albequerque Journal, shows Obama +10. This is the fourth poll in a row to show Obama at +10 or above in the "Land of Enchantment" and in the Albequerque poll, this represents a +5 shift to the President over the last Albequerque poll. The current average has risen slightly to: Obama +9.58.

In Georgia, an Atlanta Constitution poll came in showing Romney +8. All other polls are now too old, so there is no possibility of an average, which moves the Georgia statistic technically down from Romney +13.50 to Romney +8.00. Both states are still essentially "safe" states for their respective sides.

On 10/13, a poll came in for Arizona, showing Obama +2, 44 / 42. There have now been 18 polls of Arizona and Mitt Romney has won 16 of them. The two for Obama are both from "Rocky Mountain", they show toplines that are too low and too many undecideds. I have criticized other polls for this, and will do the same for a poll that appears to be more Democratic leaning. That being said, Rocky Mountain is calculating a higher Latino Vote component, and the newest LATINO DECISIONS poll, exclusively of AZ, shows Obama 80 / Romney 14 / Margin: Obama +66 in the Latino Vote in this state. This is something I just discussed in the Battleground Report from 3 days before, for 10/11/2012. So, while this poll is likely an outlier, it is also hinting that the other pollsters really are calculating the Latino Vote in AZ (and probably in NM, CO, UT, and CA as well) incorrectly. We will see on election day.

None of the polling from 10/14 changed the overall outlook of the battlegrounds.

Now, the DELUXE version (the entire week in review):


A B C D E F G H I J K G
State EV % of EC Polls 08.10.12 09.10.12 10.10.12 11.10.12 12.10.12 13.12.10 14.10.12 Shift
IN 11 2,04% 0 / 2 8,00 14,00 14,00 14,00 14,00 14,00 14,00 6,00
NE 5 0,93% 0 / 10 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 11,00 0,00
GA 16 2,97% 0 / 2 13,50 13,50 13,50 13,50 13,50 13,50 8,00 -5,50
MT 3 0,56% 0 / 3 6,50 6,50 9,67 9,67 9,67 9,67 9,67 3,17
MO 10 1,86% 0 / 6 5,70 5,70 5,70 5,70 5,70 5,70 5,70 0,00
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
AZ 11 2,04% 1 / 3 7,20 7,20 7,20 7,20 7,20 3,67 3,67 -3,53
NC 15 2,79% 1 / 6 0,44 2,28 2,28 2,94 2,28 2,28 2,62 2,18
FL 29 5,39% 1 / 9 2,33 2,33 0,60 0,49 1,18 1,18 1,16 3,49
NE-02 1 0,19% 0 / 1 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 7 / 18 2,36 2,36 0,00 0,44 0,50 0,69 0,24 2,60
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
CO 9 1,67% 1 / 9 1,00 0,29 0,29 0,53 0,59 0,59 0,15 -0,85
VA 13 2,42% 0 / 10 2,38 2,38 2,00 1,27 0,70 0,70 0,70 -1,68
NV 6 1,12% 0 / 7 4,93 3,40 3,10 2,23 2,23 2,23 2,23 -2,70
NH 4 0,74% 0 / 4 6,50 6,50 5,42 5,42 2,38 2,38 2,38 -4,12
OH 18 3,35% 1 / 13 4,52 3,03 3,28 2,68 2,68 2,50 2,50 -2,02
IA 6 1,12% 0 / 5 3,16 3,16 3,16 3,16 3,16 3,16 3,16 0,00
WI 10 1,86% 0 / 6 8,65 8,65 6,28 5,35 5,35 5,35 5,35 -3,30
PA 20 3,72% 0 / 7 8,40 7,50 6,17 5,57 5,57 5,57 5,57 -2,83
MI 16 2,97% 0 / 6 6,70 6,70 6,70 5,98 5,64 5,64 5,64 -1,06
OR 7 1,30% 0 / 1 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 9,00 0,00
NM 5 0,93% 1 / 4 9,86 9,86 9,86 9,33 9,33 9,33 9,58 -0,28
MN 10 1,86% 0 / 1 8,00 10,00 10,00 10,00 10,00 10,00 10,00 2,00



The column to look at the most is the last column: "shift".

On the Romney side, he gained in two states that have been in the battlegrounds all along: North Carolina and Florida. But he lost ground in Arizona, which is now technically a battleground, having fallen below the +5 mark. He also technically lost ground in Georgia.

On the Obama side, excepting Minnesota, all of the battlegrounds had a shift toward  Romney. The lightest shift was in NM, which will still be a landslide Obama state. The most severe shift was in New Hampshire. Note that Iowa was not polled in this week - at all. Notice that when you look at the range of shifts, from -0.28 to -4.12, that Ohio is smack dab in the middle, with -2.02. And Ohio's shift was less than the national shift.

Speaking of National Numbers:


Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE
Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE: N/A N/A N/A
46,71 46,94 6,35 0,24











RECENT:

















587 ABC / WaPo 14.10.12 923 LV +/-3.5
49 46 5 3
586 Zogby / Jzanalytics / Newsmax 14.10.12 863 LV +/-3.4
47 44 9 3
585 Investors Business Daily / TIPP 14.10.12 838 LV +/-3.5
46,7 46 7,3 0,7
584 Ipsos/Reuters 14.10.12 1793 LV +/-2.5
46 45 9 1
583 Gallup (LV Screen) 14.10.12 3050 RV +/-2.0
47 49 4 -2
582 Gallup (RV Screen) 14.10.12 3214 RV +/-2.0
48 46 6 2
581 Rasmussen 14.10.12 1500 LV +/-3.0
47 49 4 -2
576 Angus Reid 12.10.12 906 RV +/-3.5
46 46 8 0
570 UPI / CVOTER 11.10.12 1110 LV +/-4.5
46 49 5 -3
569 Monmouth 11.10.12 1360 LV +/-2.7
46 47 7 -1
563 Fox News 10.10.12 1204 RV +/-3.0
45 46 9 -1
561 YouGov 10.10.12 1000 A +/-5.0
49 46 5 3
555 Investors Business Daily / TIPP 09.10.12 797 LV +/-3.5
45 47 8 -2
553 Zogby / Jzanalytics / Washington Times 09.10.12 800 LV +/-3.5
45 45 10 0
552 ARG 09.10.12 1200 LV +/-3.0
47 48 5 -1
551 PPP (KOS / SEIU) 09.10.12 1300 RV +/-2.7
47 49 4 -2
547 Pew Research 08.10.12 1112 LV +/-4.0
45 49 6 -4
544 Politico / GWU 08.10.12 1000 RV +/-3.1
49 48 3 1


On Sunday, four polls in a row showing a shift back to the President. Romney's margin is down to +0.24. There is a strong possibility that Obama retakes the lead in the national average in the next days.


Here is the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -4.05% / Romney +4.05%


We must now see if in the next days, Gov. Romney's lead will hold. This is, just as it was for Obama on 10/09, a statistical tie, but not an absolute tie.

October 14th, 2012 marked exactly 23 days until the General Election.


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